WINTER 2017-18 Hows It Going So Far? Will Real Winter Return - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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winter 2017 18

WINTER 2017-18 Hows It Going So Far? Will Real Winter Return - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Dec 24, 2022 441 likes •620 views

WINTER 2017-18 Hows It Going So Far? Will Real Winter Return Anytime Soon? Tim Bardsley Senior Service Hydrologist NWS Reno Tim.bardsley@noaa.gov Reno National Weather Service Forecasting for the Sierra and western Nevada since

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Reno National Weather Service Forecasting for the Sierra and western Nevada since 1905

WINTER 2017-18

How’s It Going So Far? Will “Real Winter” Return Anytime Soon?

Tim Bardsley Senior Service Hydrologist – NWS Reno Tim.bardsley@noaa.gov

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Reno National Weather Service Forecasting for the Sierra and western Nevada since 1905

2016-17 vs 2017-18 – Storm Track

Jan 2017 Dec 2017

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Reno National Weather Service Forecasting for the Sierra and western Nevada since 1905

2016-17 vs 2017-18 – Storm Track

Jan 2017

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Reno National Weather Service Forecasting for the Sierra and western Nevada since 1905

How is Winter 2017-18 Going So Far?

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Reno National Weather Service Forecasting for the Sierra and western Nevada since 1905

How is Winter 2017-18 Going So Far?

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Reno National Weather Service Forecasting for the Sierra and western Nevada since 1905

How is Winter 2017-18 Going So Far?

Observed Water Year streamflow to date

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Reno National Weather Service Forecasting for the Sierra and western Nevada since 1905

Odds of Dry vs Wet Winter Using Historical Analogs

Source – NRCS Snow Survey

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Reno National Weather Service Forecasting for the Sierra and western Nevada since 1905

Rest of Winter: Knowns & Unknowns. AR, Wind, Snow Potentials Elevated Risk for Flooding Drought Is Still Over (for now) Particularly Cold, Warm April-July Runoff Likely below average

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Reno National Weather Service Forecasting for the Sierra and western Nevada since 1905

So, When Should I Freakout!?

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Reno National Weather Service Forecasting for the Sierra and western Nevada since 1905

Atmospheric Rivers - 5 to 10 Days

February 9, 2017 Major AR Landfall – The “Second Flood”

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Reno National Weather Service Forecasting for the Sierra and western Nevada since 1905

Floods vs Blizzards vs Wind - 2 to 4 Days

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Reno National Weather Service Forecasting for the Sierra and western Nevada since 1905

Snow Level Impacts on Rivers, Flooding

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Reno National Weather Service Forecasting for the Sierra and western Nevada since 1905

Tricky - Least Predictable Snow Hazards

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Reno National Weather Service Forecasting for the Sierra and western Nevada since 1905

So, How About the Next 1-3 Weeks?

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...Potent Atmospheric River Storm Wed PM - Fri

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Reno National Weather Service Forecasting for the Sierra and western Nevada since 1905

Highlights Up Front

★ Strong, damaging winds possible Wed PM & Thu. Gusts 50-80 mph lower elevations Gusts > 100 mph over Ridges ★ Sierra snow, whiteout conditions Thu & Fri Very poor travel conditions 1-2 feet possible ★ Difficult Fri AM commute likely western NV Frida Plan ahead – 1-3 inches of snow ★ Cold storm possible Sun-Mon More Sierra snow Snow possible below 5000 feet Gusty winds 30-60 mph. ★ Small hint of a storm the last week of January.

Storm #1 Tuesday Storm #2: Wed PM - Friday Storm #3: Early next week.

More storms on horizon? (Lower confidence)

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Reno National Weather Service Forecasting for the Sierra and western Nevada since 1905

Tim.bardsley@noaa.gov 775-673-8100