Wildland Fire Smoke & Roadway Visibility: Predict, Prepare and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Wildland Fire Smoke & Roadway Visibility: Predict, Prepare and Avert Accidents

A three part webinar series sponsored by NWCG Smoke Committee, Southern Fire Exchange, The Nature Conservancy & Prescribed Fire Training Center at Montgomery Community College

Apex Superfog Event December 10th2015

But first some webinar business: √ Start Recording √ Recognition of our partners √ Recognition of our presenters √ Archived by FRAMES √ Continuing Forestry Education Credits √ Webinar flow: time / presentation /questions

Southern Fire Exchange

For those who wish to earn Continuing Forestry Education credits or to receive updates! I will need:

• 1. Name: Last, First, & M.I.
• 2. “email address” &
• 3. “physical mailing address”

This is for CFE and MCC PFTC Certificates as well as for future mailings in relation to the webinars. This information can be entered into the webinar Chat Box or email it to: gary.curcio@gmail.com Also, I can be reached at 252-624-7635 (cell #)

Part 2: “Weather information & Tools Available to Stay Ahead of Superfog Events or Severely Reduced Roadway Visibility”

“The tools for wildland smoke are building blocks of knowledge that deal with fuel, weather fire, and emissions”.

“Charles K. McMahon… in his 1980-85 RPR commented;

through “Situational Awareness” Wildland fire managers, both prescribed & wildfire, can create opportunities to minimize the detrimental effects of fire’s smoke …..”  smoke from smoldering combustion  understanding moisture relationships in forest fuels,  understanding the cumulative interaction of weather elements, and  use of continued developing remote sensing methods and evolving dispersion models

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• Asst. Verona Fire Chief Gene Thomas VFD &

Deputy Sheriff Steve Boehm Onslow County Hwy 17 outside Jacksonville, NC

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Let’s Review Superfog Event; the worst Case Outcome

Critical atmospheric water content for visibility to be less than 3m (Superfog)

• From theoretic calculation, critical

water content needs to be 0.87g/kg (Gary Achtemeier, retired USFS Researcher)

• From experiments, critical water

content is 2.00g/kg (Christian Bartolome, Mechanical Engineer, UC-Riverside)

For Superfog to form, water content has to be right in the two merging air masses

WE DO NOT KNOW WE KNOW! Fire Smoke Ambient Air Air Mass Mixed Air Parcel

Superfog is the result of two merging air masses

Air Resource Advisors, technical smoke specialists, are trained to address Roadway Visibility

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Roadway Visibility Plan (RVP)

Daily Assessment Process for evaluating RV Prepare RV Forecast Communication / Distribution Process for RV Forecast Validate RV Forecast

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Daily Assessment Process to Develop Roadway Visibility Forecast

Evaluate forecast / monitor

visual observation & remote sensing

Prepare & transmit RV forecast Identify impacted roadways

3 mileage zones

Where is the smoke going? Review natural

drainage for smoke transport & perform PB –Piedmont, Trajectory, &/or Dispersion Model runs

Physically inspect smoke production

Its origin & type

Collect Fire Weather

information for surface and upper air

Assess Fire Behavior

surface and ground fuels

Assess Fire Danger

surface and ground fuel consumption

What needs to be assessed? What information/tools are available?

Starting as a Prescribed fire on Saturday June 16th, 2012. The Burn spotted and was declared a wildfire on June 17th. Dad Fire burned approximately 21,000 acres of Pocosin Fuels Fire Danger reflects how well the forest “SURFACE FUELS” will

• burn. It gives an idea of

what is available to burn.

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Sunday 1 hr. 10 hr. 100 hr. 1000 hr. KBDI IC ERC SC BI 8 9 15 18 224 12 39 11 50

Fire Danger (NFDRS addresses only “surface fuels”) – Dad Fire

Fuel Model O High Pocosin Caution on use of NFDRS Fire Behavior Components with the new planned update

Comparing ERC Trendlines amongst NFDRS Brush Fuel Models

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5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 1-Jan 1-Feb1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec Energy Release Component (ERC x 25= BTUs/ft²)

• Poly. (FM B)
• Poly. (FM D)
• Poly. (FM F)
• Poly. (FM O) Pocosin

Chamise Southern Rough Chaparral

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1 hr. 10 hr. 100 hr. 1000 hr. KBDI IC ERC SC BI 8 9 15 18 224 12 39 11 50 8 9 15 18 224 22 30 11 44 Fuel Model O High Pocosin Fuel Model G Short Needle Fire Behavior Components

• f NFDRS Outputs

SOW T RH WS 1 78 52 13

15 SPEED LIMIT HIGH SPEED LIMIT 45

Old NFDRS program New / revised NFDRS program

H layer F layer L layer Difficult to burn > 45 % MOE Light L = 2.5T ~ 10 Hr. Medium to Heavy L = 7 to 12 T/ac ~ 100 Hr. Difficult to > 50 % Difficult to burn > 75 %

Organic Soils and duffs (Non-Surface Fuels) are additional fuel types that need to be inclusive to any NFDRS

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Fire Behavior: Are we dealing with smoldering or flaming combustion?

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Fire Weather Information to be collected

Evaluating Smoke Dispersion & Smoke Induced Fog Potential on SSA’s & Roadway Visibility due to smoldering combustion Do “key variables” reach threshold / critical values? (sunset to sunrise) Present (√) Hours Present CRITICAL OVERLAP Common Hours SURFACE TEMP (≤ 70⁰F, critical ≤ 55°F) RH (≥ 70% / critical > 90%) SURFACE WIND SPEED (< 7mph, critical ≤ 4) CLOUD COVER (<60%,critical <40%) TURNER STABILITY (E,F, or G)

• ATMS. DISPERSION Index (< 10, critical ≤ 6)

LOW VISIBILITY OCCURRENCE RISK Index (≥7, critical ≥9) SUPERFOG POTENTIAL (≥ 70%, critical ≥ 80%)

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SURFACE TEMP (≤ 70⁰F, critical ≤ 55°F) 43 RH (≥ 70% / critical > 90%) 100 SURFACE WIND SPEED (< 7mph, critical ≤ 4) 1 CLOUD COVER (<60%,critical <40%) 44 TURNER STABILITY (E,F, or G) D / F*

• ATMS. DISPERSION Index (< 10, critical ≤ 6)

1 LOW VISIBILITY OCCURRENCE RISK Index (≥7, critical ≥9) 10 SUPERFOG POTENTIAL (≥ 70%, critical ≥ 80%) 100 Transportation Corridor Distance in miles from Smoke Source (mountain topography supports greater surface smoke transport distances) 0-3 CRIT. Yes

Weather Information from Fire Weather Point Matrix (PFW) Reedy Creek Station * Value determined from portable tool

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Fire Weather Information was available the day before the Superfog Event at 4:10 PM

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Interstate 40 Arizona Superfog Event October 19th2016

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SURFACE TEMP (≤ 70⁰F, critical ≤ 55°F) 29 – 33 RH (≥ 70% / critical > 90%) 71 – 91 SURFACE WIND SPEED (< 7mph, critical ≤ 4) 10-15 CLOUD COVER (<60%,critical <40%) 10–30 TURNER STABILITY (E,F, or G) NA

• ATMS. DISPERSION Index (< 10, critical ≤ 6)

NA LOW VISIBILITY OCCURRENCE RISK Index (≥7, critical ≥9) NA SUPERFOG POTENTIAL (≥ 70%, critical ≥ 80%) NA Transportation Corridor Distance in miles from Smoke Source (mountain topography supports greater surface smoke transport distances) 0-3 CRIT. Yes

Information from Fire Weather Forecast concerning tonight’s weather

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SURFACE TEMP (≤ 70⁰F, critical ≤ 55°F) 29 – 39 33 RH (≥ 70% / critical > 90%) 71 – 91 80 SURFACE WIND SPEED (< 7mph, critical ≤ 4) 10-15 5 CLOUD COVER (<60%,critical <40%) 10-30 TURNER STABILITY (E,F, or G) NA

• ATMS. DISPERSION Index (< 10, critical ≤ 6)

NA LOW VISIBILITY OCCURRENCE RISK Index (≥7, critical ≥9) NA SUPERFOG POTENTIAL (≥ 70%, critical ≥ 80%) NA Transportation Corridor Distance in miles from Smoke Source (mountain topography supports greater surface smoke transport distances) 0-3 CRIT. Yes

Information from Fire Weather Forecast & Spot Forecast

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Information from Fire Weather Forecast & Spot Forecast Fill in the index values from tools available based on the Spot Forecast

SURFACE TEMP (≤ 70⁰F, critical ≤ 55°F) 29 – 39 33 RH (≥ 70% / critical > 90%) 71 – 91 80 SURFACE WIND SPEED (< 7mph, critical ≤ 4) 10-15 5 CLOUD COVER (<60%,critical <40%) 10–30 TURNER STABILITY (E,F, or G) F

• ATMS. DISPERSION Index (< 10, critical ≤ 6)

2-5 LOW VISIBILITY OCCURRENCE RISK Index (≥7, critical ≥9) 4-5 SUPERFOG POTENTIAL (≥ 70%, critical ≥ 80%) 70 Transportation Corridor Distance in miles from Smoke Source (mountain topography supports greater surface smoke transport distances) 0-3 CRIT. Yes

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Daytime insolation Night-time conditions Surface wind speed (m/s) Strong Moderate Slight Thin overcast or > 4/8 low cloud <= 4/8 cloudiness < 2 or < 4.4 mph A A - B B E F 2 – 3 or < 6.6 mph A - B B C E F 3 – 5 or < 11 mph B B - C C D E 5 – 6 or < 13.2 mph C C - D D D D > 6 or . 13.2 mph C D D D D

Quick Assessment to determine Turner Stability Index

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Table to determine Atmospheric Dispersion Index

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Quick Assessment to determine LVORI

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Gary Achtemeier,

• Measured T, Td of several smokes from Rx Burns in the field
• Developed a model to mix the smoke and ambient air parcel
• If the water content of the mixed air parcel exceeds the critical

water content, superfog will occur.

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Air mass conditions likely to PRODUCE SUPERFOG.The Superfog Analysis Model (SAM) has identified criteria: 1) liquid water content (lwc) ≥ 2 g kg ¯¹ 2) water droplets diam. ≤ 1 µm 3) water droplet concentration (CCN) > 10⁵ cm¯³ 4) Air Temp > 40°F 5) RH % > 80% 6) fuel moisture content > 40% 7) Wind Speed ≤ 2.2 mph ( 1m s¯¹) This table was built from data collected on Prescribed Burns. Therefore fuel conditions and fire danger were acceptable for conducting prescribed fires. It shows the probability when prescribed fire smoke air mixes with ambient air and causes supersaturated conditions producing superfog. The air is assumed to be calm and

• stable. As wind speed rises it increases mixing and helps to dissipate superfog.

The smoke measurements taken were from smoldering fires therefore the application of the Table to wildfires is dicey and comes with uncertainty. Also smoke from Prescribed Fire flaming combustion is buoyant and can loft smoke above the surface inversion or mixes well within the inversion. Smoke from flaming combustion can still cause reduced roadway visibility but not superfog.

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SURFACE TEMP (≤ 70⁰F, critical ≤ 55°F) 33 RH (≥ 70% / critical > 90%) 80 SURFACE WIND SPEED (< 7mph, critical ≤ 4) 5 CLOUD COVER (<60%,critical <40%) 10-30 TURNER STABILITY (E,F, or G) F*

• ATMS. DISPERSION Index (< 10, critical ≤ 6)

2-5* LOW VISIBILITY OCCURRENCE RISK Index (≥7, critical ≥9) 4-5 SUPERFOG POTENTIAL (≥ 70%, critical ≥ 80%) 70 Transportation Corridor Distance in miles from Smoke Source (mountain topography supports greater surface smoke transport distances) 0-3 CRIT. Yes

Information from Spot Forecast

SURFACE TEMP (≤ 70⁰F, critical ≤ 55°F) 24 RH (≥ 70% / critical > 90%) 90 SURFACE WIND SPEED (< 7mph, critical ≤ 4) CLOUD COVER (<60%,critical <40%) 10-30 TURNER STABILITY (E,F, or G) F/G *

• ATMS. DISPERSION Index (< 10, critical ≤ 6)

0* LOW VISIBILITY OCCURRENCE RISK Index (≥7, critical ≥9) 7* SUPERFOG POTENTIAL (≥ 70%, critical ≥ 80%) 100 Transportation Corridor Distance in miles from Smoke Source (mountain topography supports greater surface smoke transport distances) 0-3 CRIT. Yes

Information from Green Base RAWS actual observations * Values estimated by Charts

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Mountain Parkway Powell County Kentucky Superfog Event November 16 2016 8:45 AM Smoke from the Woodland Fire

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What was the Fire Danger, expected Fire Behavior and Forecasted Fire Weather

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Fire Danger 1 hr. 10 hr. 100 hr. 1000 hr. KBDI IC ERC SC BI 8 8 14 17 469 22 29 8 37 SOW T RH WS 1 66 38 3 From these numbers, how well will the forest fuels burn? What type of fire behavior; Flamingor Smoldering combustion?

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SURFACE TEMP (≤ 70⁰F, critical ≤ 55°F) Yes RH (≥ 70% / critical > 90%) Yes SURFACE WIND SPEED (< 7mph, critical ≤ 4) Yes CLOUD COVER (<60%,critical <40%) Yes TURNER STABILITY (E,F, or G) F*

• ATMS. DISPERSION Index (< 10, critical ≤ 6)

3 LOW VISIBILITY OCCURRENCE RISK Index (≥7, critical ≥9) 8 SUPERFOG POTENTIAL (≥ 70%, critical ≥ 80%) 100* Transportation Corridor Distance in miles from Smoke Source (mountain topography supports greater surface smoke transport distances) 0-3 CRIT. Yes

437 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2016 TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42. 24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES WARMER. MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT. 24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. LAL.................1 HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. ADI.................3. LVORI...............8. PROB OF PRECIP......0 PERCENT. QPF (INCHES)........NONE. Fire Weather forecast issued the previous afternoon , Tuesday. * Estimated from TS Table

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TIME (EST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........72 69 64 54 49 46 40 37 36 34 34 31 TEMP............52 49 47 46 45 44 42 42 41 40 40 39 DEWPOINT........38 39 41 41 42 43 42 42 41 40 40 39 RH..............59 68 79 83 89 96 100 100 100 100 100 100 20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W W W W 20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 RIDGE WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W W W W RIDGE WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W W W W TRANSP WIND SPD.8 7 5 3 2 2 3 5 5 5 5 3 LVORI...........3 3 4 5 7 8 10 9 9 9 9 10 ADI.............4 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 Spot Forecast from the NWS prepared Tuesday for Wednesday night & early morning hours

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Interstate 16 Montrose, GA February 6th, 2013

Current readings @ 0800 AT = 45 RH = 100 DWPT = 45 WS = 0 Current readings @ 0700 AT = 46 RH = 100 DWPT = 46 WS = 0 Current readings @ 0600 AT = 46 RH = 100 DWPT = 46 WS = 0 Current readings @ 0500 AT = 52 RH = 100 DWPT = 52 WS = 0 Current readings @ 0400 AT = 52 RH = 100 DWPT = 52 WS = 3mph @~315 degrees Current readings @ 0300 AT = 52 RH = 100 DWPT = 52 WS = 5mph @~280 degrees From MESOWEST nearest station W M Bud Barron Airport for 2/6/13 For 11 hours RH was at 100% from 11 pm on 2/5 until the accident @~8am on 2/6 Current readings @ 0200 AT = 50 RH = 100 DWPT = 50 WS = 0 Current readings @ 0200 AT = 50 RH = 100 DWPT = 50 WS = 0 Current readings @ 0100 AT = 52 RH = 100 DWPT = 52 WS = 0 Current readings @ 0000 AT = 52 RH = 100 DWPT = 52 WS = 3 mph @~250 degrees Current readings @ 2300 on 2/5 AT = 54 RH = 100 DWPT = 54 WS = 3 mph @~250 degrees Current readings @ 2200 on 2/5 AT = 57 RH = 88 DWPT = 54 WS = 0 mph @~250 degrees

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Fire Weather Information to be collected

Evaluating Smoke Dispersion & Smoke Induced Fog Potential on SSA’s & Roadway Visibility due to smoldering combustion Do “key variables” reach threshold / critical values? (sunset to sunrise) Present (√) Hours Present CRITICAL OVERLAP Common Hours SURFACE TEMP (≤ 70⁰F, critical ≤ 55°F) RH (≥ 70% / critical > 90%) SURFACE WIND SPEED (< 7mph, critical ≤ 4) CLOUD COVER (<60%,critical <40%) TURNER STABILITY (E,F, or G)

• ATMS. DISPERSION Index (< 10, critical ≤ 6)

LOW VISIBILITY OCCURRENCE RISK Index (≥7, critical ≥9) SUPERFOG POTENTIAL (≥ 70%, critical ≥ 80%) Transportation Corridor Distance in miles from Smoke Source (mountain topography 0-3 CRIT. 4-7 W.O. 8-10+ Alert

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Fire Weather Information to be collected

Evaluating Smoke Dispersion & Smoke Induced Fog Potential on SSA’s & Roadway Visibility due to smoldering combustion SURFACE TEMP (≤ 70⁰F, critical ≤ 55°F) RH (≥ 70% / critical > 90%) SURFACE WIND SPEED (< 7mph, critical ≤ 4) CLOUD COVER (<60%,critical <40%) TURNER STABILITY (E,F, or G)

• ATMS. DISPERSION Index (< 10, critical ≤ 6)

LOW VISIBILITY OCCURRENCE RISK Index (≥7, critical ≥9) SUPERFOG POTENTIAL (≥ 70%, critical ≥ 80%) Transportation Corridor Distance in miles from Smoke Source (mountain topography supports greater surface smoke transport distances)

2013 PM FCST LVORI1 N Percentage 1 0.0% 2 1 0.0% 3 154 4.0% 4 258 6.7% 5 405 10.6% 6 1098 28.7% 7 104 2.7% 8 830 21.7% 9 978 25.5% Total 3828 100.0%

LVORI is ≥ 7 49.9 %

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Fire Weather Information to be collected

Evaluating Smoke Dispersion & Smoke Induced Fog Potential on SSA’s & Roadway Visibility due to smoldering combustion SURFACE TEMP (≤ 70⁰F, critical ≤ 55°F) RH (≥ 70% / critical > 90%) SURFACE WIND SPEED (< 7mph, critical ≤ 4) CLOUD COVER (<60%,critical <40%) TURNER STABILITY (E,F, or G)

• ATMS. DISPERSION Index (< 10, critical ≤ 6)

LOW VISIBILITY OCCURRENCE RISK Index (≥7, critical ≥9) SUPERFOG POTENTIAL (≥ 70%, critical ≥ 80%) Transportation Corridor Distance in miles from Smoke Source (mountain topography supports greater surface smoke transport distances)

2013 PM FCST NWSSF1 N Percentage 2 0.1% 1 88 2.3% 2 480 12.5% 3 346 9.0% 4 694 18.1% 5 865 22.6% 6 796 20.8% 7 557 14.6% Total 3828 100.0%

For all 7 variables to line up occurs only 14.6 % of the time

NWS Super Fog Smart Tool is for the fire weather forecaster who can alert land managers on wildfires or prescribed fires if the worst case conditions are being met at the same time

• New SmartTool – SuperFog on a new SuperFog grid
• Tool creates a binary “mask” of 1 or 0 to indicate

where all matrix parameters come together

• Should be used as a forecast aid, not a decision tool
• Remember: We need smoke nuclei to get super fog

NWS Forecaster Super-Fog Smart Tool Criteria

• Surface T ≤ 70⁰ F
• Relative Humidity ≥ 90 %
• Surface Wind Speed < 7 mph
• Sky Cover ≤ 60 %
• Atmosphere Dispersion Index < 10
• Stability = E, F, or G
• Low Visibility Occurrence Risk Index ≥ 7

It is all or nothing. It denotes the worse case scenario as “ALL CRITERIA has been met. It represents the best or most a fertile conditions for Super-Fog.

A: All conditions met B: All conditions not met C: All conditions not met

A B C

Points A, B, & C are known fire locations within the WFO boundary. See what happens as weather advances through the night. Forecaster’s Super-Fog Smart Tool 12 AM

A: All conditions met B: All conditions not met C: All conditions not met

A B C

2 AM

A: All conditions met B: All conditions not met C: All conditions met

A B C

4 AM

• Fire Weather Forecast
• Fire Weather Point Matrix –

stations & incidents

• Spot Forecast
• Hourly Graphical Weather
• NWS Super-fog Smart Tool
• NOAA Air Resource Lab
• Weather Station Network - FWIP

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Sources of weather information

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Dad Wildfire or any persisting prescribed burn creation

• f a PFW

This product is “enhanced” for assessing smoke dispersion & review of conditions supporting Super-Fog Events. It also facilitates 1 stop shopping for running the atmospheric dispersion model PC-VSMOKE

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DAD Fire – ARA PFW established for fire weather info.

The Dad PFW is geo-referenced and its relationship to how it lies within the 2.5 km

• r 1.5 mile NWS fire weather grid .

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On Thursday 60 hours in advance

• f modeled weather it was

concurred between NWS IMet & ARA “Sunday was a PROBLEM!!! “ NWS weather grid indicated deteriorating smoke dispersion for Sunday morning. This information placed the ARA & NWS meteorologist on Hi Alert. For the next “60 hours” modeled environmental conditions would be “closely monitored”. Sunday’s modeled weather had very poor smoke dispersion and coupled with wildfire smoke would seriously cause reduced roadway visibility.

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Visibility is reduced to 550ft.

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Results: No Super-fog / Dense Smoke / Reduce Visibility Why? SOP Rain gauges measures R amounts R estimates……. EDT Station Air Tmp Dew Pt Rh 20 Ft WdSpd 05

Croatan

67 67 99 1 05

Hofmann

64 63 95

Visibility ~ 550 ft. MAV for a 55 mph zone = 399 ft. If the driver is fully attentive & situational aware and in an instant determines that the vehicle has to be stopped. Distance traveled = 60 ft. for a prompt reaction to apply brakes. Another 168 ft. distance is travelled to get the vehicle stopped. But since we are not perfect nor trained to drive in these conditions add 171 ft. as a Safety factor. Total distance travelled is ~400 ft.

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On Saturday 6/23/12 @ 4:07 AM, the PFW confirmed that environmental conditions were still prone to “very poor smoke dispersion” early Sunday. Coming into alignment from 4 to 9 am Sunday June 24th was an elevated risk for Super-fog. This weather intelligence was seen back on Thursday, 60 hours before it would occur. NWS Met and ARA were in conversation throughout this time. Monitoring daily AM & PM PFWs. Eventually NWS Met & ARA concur: “NWS Special Warning Statement (SPS) would be issued . A Super-fog Event was projected”. Because the SPS was the COA this set in motion

• 1. IMT PIO Statement
• 2. Dense Fog Advisory
• 3. NOAA Radio announcement
• 4. Broadcast by local TV Stations
• 5. Activated IMT RVP - Road Hazard

Telephone call tree” alerting DOT, Hwy Patrol, & Emergency Mgmt. for potential emergency road response.

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It is a nationwide network of radio stations broadcasting continuous weather information directly from the nearest National Weather Service office. NWR broadcasts official Weather Service warnings, watches, forecasts and other hazard information 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. Working with the Federal Communication Commission's (FCC) Emergency Alert System , NWR is an "All Hazards" radio network, making it your single source for comprehensive weather and emergency information. In conjunction with Federal, State, and Local Emergency Managers and other public

• fficials, NWR also broadcasts warning and

post-event information for all types of hazards – including natural (such as earthquakes or avalanches), environmental (such as chemical releases or oil spills), and public safety (such as AMBER alerts or 911 Telephone outages).

Mark Trail Champions / NOAA Weather Radio

NOAA Radio should be as common in homes & public places as smoke detectors

Special Weather Statement – usually ARA specific requested

August 22, 2015 The National Weather Service in Riverton issued a Special Weather Statement this week, which states, "Smokey conditions will likely worsen behind the front Saturday morning. Individuals sensitive to increased particulate and smoke levels should avoid prolonged or strenuous outdoor activity.“ The smoky conditions have been affecting the entire state. "From what we've seen, it looks like there really isn't an area across the state that's not being affected right now," National Weather Service Meteorologist Trevor Lavoie said.

The smoke from area wildfires has hidden everything beyond the Worland W and reduced visibility Friday.

Do you have an understanding of the protocol?

James Paul and Lee Lavdas have identified the key fire weather elements critical for Transportation Safety supplemented with key indexes & classes

• Temperature
• Relative Humidity
• Surface Wind Speed
• % Cloud Cover
• Turner Stability Class
• ADI
• LVORI
• SFI (is a work in progress to place into

the NWS gridded products but it is available via table)

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Astute Situational Awareness can Predict, Prepare and Prevent Serious Consequences from Wildland Fire Smoke

Another Example Pains Bay Fire

ADI = 6 Transport Wind = 6 mph Mixing height = 300 ft. T Stability = F or 6 LVORI = 4 Visibility = 550 ft.

EDT Station Air Temp Dew Pt T RH 20 Ft. WSpd 0600 Fairfield 82 71 85 2 0600 Pocosin L. 76 70 83 4

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No Super-fog projected only severely reduced visibility NWS Smart Tool for Fog dew-point depression is not met. Temperature threshold is exceeded. RH is at a level for smoke induced fog formation

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Daily Assessment Process to Develop Roadway Visibility Forecast

Evaluate forecast / monitor

visual observation & remote sensing

Prepare & transmit RV forecast Identify impacted roadways

3 mileage zones

Where is the smoke going? Review natural

drainage for smoke transport & perform PB –Piedmont, Trajectory, &/or Dispersion Model runs

Physically inspect smoke production

Its origin & type

Collect Fire Weather

information for surface and upper air

Assess Fire Behavior

surface and ground fuels

Assess Fire Danger

surface and ground fuel consumption

What needs to be assessed? What information/tools are available?

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Smoke experiments again !!! Give us a break. Of course it is going to follow the drainage. It is going to Duck Run, then its going to traverse Gray’s Mill Pond & then across Hwy 258.

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Interstate 16 Montrose, GA

Woodland Fire Slade Kentucky

Clear Branch ties into Middle Fork Red River in Slade. Source area of major smoke production

• n 11/16 Lat. = 37.803078

Lon = -83.680269

Accident site

PB-Piedmont Run Mountain Parkway, Slade KY

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Interstate 40 Parks, AZ evaluating overall area topography

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Pond –& it appears drainage flow is NE to SW across the Interstate.

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Pond & it appears drainage flow is NE to SW across the Interstate.

Counter vortices around peaks and gap flows

Determine your physical smoke conduits. Where will your smoke escape or drift? Terrain, topography needs to be examined.

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Points You need to Evaluate!

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Determine the position of drains that can serve as transport conduits for surface smoke

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Prioritizing Mile Impact Zones at 3, 7 and 10 miles

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Daily Assessment Process to Develop Roadway Visibility Forecast

Evaluate forecast / monitor

visual observation & remote sensing

Prepare & transmit RV forecast Identify impacted roadways

3 mileage zones

Where is the smoke going? Review natural

drainage for smoke transport & perform PB –Piedmont, Trajectory, &/or Dispersion Model runs

Physically inspect smoke production

Its origin & type

Collect Fire Weather

information for surface and upper air

Assess Fire Behavior

surface and ground fuels

Assess Fire Danger

surface and ground fuel consumption

What needs to be assessed? What information/tools are available?

Wildland Fire Smoke Guiding Principles Smoke Dispersion Matrix

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Mountain Parkway Slade, Kentucky November 16, 2016 Interstate 40 Parks, Arizona October 19th, 2016

Wildland Fire Smoke Risk Assessment

Wildland Fire Smoke Guiding Principles Smoke Dispersion Matrix

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Enhancing your NWS Fire Weather Program to include key Fire Weather information and use of the PFW services. Point of contact is Chris Gibson of the NWS Missoula Weather Forecast Office. chris.gibson@noaa.gov (office) 406-329-4715 KEEPER OF CODE & INSTRUCTIONS

SFE FACTSHEETS

http://southernfireexchange.org/SFE_Publications/Fact_Sheets.html