What You Can Do to Influence Minimum Wage in Alberta MAY 12, 2016 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
What You Can Do to Influence Minimum Wage in Alberta MAY 12, 2016 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
What You Can Do to Influence Minimum Wage in Alberta MAY 12, 2016 Agenda Introduction Public opinion research: What Albertans and servers are saying and thinking Restaurants Canada Activities and Outreach Political Update:
Agenda
- Introduction
- Public opinion research: What Albertans and
servers are saying and thinking
- Restaurants Canada Activities and Outreach
- Political Update: Current challenges and how it
impacts MW decision
- Communications Campaign
- Feedback and Questions
- Wrap-up
Advisory Com m ittee that m eets w eekly
- 7-Eleven Canada
- Boston Pizza
- CRAFT Beer Market
- Humpty’s Family
Restaurant
- Hudson’s Canadian
Tap House
- The Marc Restaurant
Group
- McDonald’s
Restaurants of Canada
- Moxie’s Classic Grill
- O’Brien’s Pub
- Red Piano Bistro &
Dueling Piano Bar
- Tim Hortons
- YUM! Brands
Key Minim um W age Objectives
- Postpone minimum wage increases until
economy improves
- Retain and freeze liquor server wage
- Introduce youth wage
Raising the Minim um W age in Alberta: Now is Not the Tim e
Public Opinion Research Sum m ary
Methodology 1 . Quantitative. Online surveys with 750 Albertans, January 9-16, 2016. 1 . Qualitative. Four focus group sessions January 25-27, with servers (Calgary), 3 general public sessions in Edmonton and Red Deer. 1 . Ongoing Monitoring. Social media monitoring and analysis of Alberta government and minimum wage discussions in media and
- nline.
Alberta Minimum Wage Research January 2016
Important Issues Facing Alberta
“What do you think are the most important issues facing Alberta today?” MULTIPLE REPSONSES ACCEPTED 7% 7% 8% 10% 11% 21% 22% 45% 48% 66%
The economy Price of oil Healthcare Jobs Politics/leaders Environment Types of Issues: Economic 100+% Social 32% Environmental 18% Other 15% Minimum Wage (7%) by age groups, region:
- 18-34 (10%) Edmonton (6%)
- 35-54 (5%) Calgary (9%)
- 55+ (6%) Other AB (7%)
Education Bill 6/Farm Safety Climate Change Minimum Wage Social issues mentioned by region:
- Edmonton (40%)
- Calgary (25%)
- Other Alberta (33%)
Figure 1
Alberta Minimum Wage Research January 2016
Raising Minimum Wage Yes, Just not Now Due to Economic Concerns
26% 29% 33% 23% 31% 31% 28% 32%
12%
22% 19% 19% 18%
55% 61%
Support raising Alberta’s minimum wage to $15/hour Unsure 5%
34%
22%
60% “For each claim or statement, how much do you agree or disagree? Is that strongly or somewhat? Somewhat Strongly
Disagree Agree
Strongly Somewhat 57%
13% 14%
33% 32% 40%
Raising the minimum wage to $15 by 2018 Increase of 50% in 3 years is too much for businesses to handle Unsure 5% MW increase should be delayed until the economy improves Unsure 5% Raising MW too quickly will delay economic recovery Unsure 5%
Broad Conceptual Support But Most Albertans Seek a Delay due to Economy Figure 9
Alberta Minimum Wage Research January 2016
53% 52% 43% 6%
Know someone who once worked in industry Know someone who currently works in industry Once worked in industry Currently work in industry
Current Industry Workers Aware of Impacts
“Do you currently or have you ever worked at a restaurant or bar, or do you know
someone who does?”
“Servers don’t need minimum wage because they make a lot
- f money from tips”:
- 60% of industry people agree
- 50% of general public agree
“I am willing to pay more at a restaurant to support minimum wage increases”:
- 47% of industry people agree
- 31% of general public agree
“Service at restaurants will decline if minimum wage is increased”:
- 48% of industry people agree
- 37% of general public
Server Wage Differential Prices Will Rise Service Will Suffer
Figure 16
Alberta Minimum Wage Research January 2016
Timing and Unintended Consequences
Timing
“It’s a big jump in terms of the dollars … how can they do this when the economy is so bad?” “How can we afford this? When I started working four years ago, oil was
- ver $100 a barrel. Now it’s $30.”
First Time Job Seekers
“I definitely agree there should be an index. A 15-year-old doesn’t need $15 per hour.” “A $15-year-old can make $7-$8 an hour because he’s living at home and has all his expenses paid. There’s no reason to make it applicable to everyone.”
Impact on Servers and Restaurant Workers
“If food prices go up, I won’t pay tips.” “And with higher costs and higher price of food, prices will go up in restaurants.” “They will go to automation.”
Servers General Public
“You don’t do it for economics; you do it for politics. You do it to make an ideological statement. But the economy right now makes it a hard sell.”
Alberta Minimum Wage Research January 2016
After Discussion, Opposition Increases to Idea of Raising Minimum Wage
“Now that you have considered more statements related to a minimum wage increase in Alberta, has your opinion
- f the NDP commitment to raise the minimum wage to $15 by 2018 changed? Are you now?”
24% More Opposed 14% More Supportive 62% Unchanged
- r Unsure
Net -10% Shift
Figure 18
Support, 55% Opposed, 40% Unsure, 5%
50% Opposed 45% Supportive
Alberta Minimum Wage Research January 2016
Research Summary
- Attitudes Toward Raising the Minimum Wage-
- Albertans support the concept of raising the minimum wage but they
have deep reservations due to:
- Business decline at restaurants
- Increasing minimum wage will make a bad situation worse
- 50% increase in 3 years is too much too fast for most people
- Servers see many problems such as:
- Decreased hours and increased responsibilities for the extra wage
- Resentment among other employees who may have slowly made wage gains
- An increase in menu prices, which may lead to fewer customers and lower tips
- Many people who think raising minimum wage is a good idea, but
now is not the time to do it
Restaurants Canada Activities and Outreach
- Industry Impact Research
- Academic Research
- Messaging Documents
- Meetings with MLAs, Ministers, Mayors,
stakeholders
I ndustry I m pact Research
The actions of restaurant
- perators if
m inim um w age is increased to $ 1 5 / hour
2% 7% 14% 27% 49% 78% 89% 2% 22% 11% 28% 25% 15% 5% 9% 25% 18% 13% 14% 3% 2% 77% 31% 32% 18% 7% 2% 2% 10% 16% 25% 13% 5% 2% 2% Open a new restaurant / bar Close your current business Implement a no-tip policy Explore self service solutions like touch pads Layoff staff Decrease labour hours Increase prices Very likely Somewhat likely Somewhat unlikely Very unlikely Not sure / I don't know
Academ ic Research
Messaging Docum ents
- Meeting Guide
- Qs and As
- Leave Behind for Politicians
- State of the Industry
- International Comparisons
- Comprehensive Submission
Meetings w ith MLAs, Ministers, Mayors, Stakeholders
- 7 NDP MLAs
- Minister of Labour
- Senior departmental officials including the Deputy Minister of
Labour and ADMs at both Finance and Economic Development
- Calgary Mayor Nenshi
- Edmonton Mayor's Chief of Staff and policy advisor
- Numerous stakeholder groups including; CFIB, Alberta
Chamber of Commerce, Edmonton Chamber of Commerce, Edmonton Economic Development, Calgary Downtown BIA, the Alberta Urban Municipalities Association (AUMA), plus meetings with the Alberta Coalition on Employment and the Economy (includes 15 business associations)
- NDP Caucus Communications Director
- NDP MLA tourism Industry reception
Political Considerations for Cam paign
- First year in power ended May 5 2016
- Probation period is over. No more “free passes” or
excuses that “the government is still new”, or “finding its way”
- “I t’s the econom y”: the “jobs budget” aims to put
people back to work. Anything that has the opposite effect (reduced hours or a cut in positions) will jeopardize 2016 budget
- Key goals for the NDP government are:
- New pipelines;
- Climate change reduction goals;
- Putting Albertans back to work again.
Political Analysis May 2 0 1 6
Political Update: May 2 0 1 6
- NDP w in in 2 0 1 5 a rejection of status quo solutions
- Split on the right remains and may grow stronger
- Fiscal realities will restrict choices 2017-2018
- Choices and conflicting trade-offs:
- Electoral base want promises kept
- Interest and business groups calling for moderation
- Rachel Notley is the key asset of the Alberta NDP:
- Fort McMurray fire
Political Analysis May 2 0 1 6
Developing a Com m unications Cam paign
The Situation: The Econom y and the Minim um W age
Desired Governm ent Priorities Personal I m pact The econom y: “Desperate Tim es”
Jobs are being Lost Spending Less Eating Out Stimulate the Economy Create Jobs Saving More Willing to Delay Goals Be Pragmatic and Patient Delay Min Wage Increases “It will put small businesses out of business. An incremental raise can be tolerated, but not $5 an hour. It’s taking place over too short a time period. It should have been stretched.” Com m unications Strategy
Key Learning from Research
- Tim ing
- Now is not the time to add costs and uncertainty to Alberta
businesses.
- Unintended consequences
- It will hurt some people it is intended to help: server layoffs
and fewer hours, difficulty for 1st time job seekers.
- Big I m pact on restaurants :
- Increased menu prices (77% link it to MW increase)
- Decreased hours and tips for servers (60% of industry
don’t want MW increase due to reliance on tips, not wages)
- Digital outreach:
- Good potential to engage supporters online (servers and
frequent restaurant patrons use social media heavily).
Developing Key Messages for the Cam paign
- W hat the GOA w ill require:
- Clear credible evidence that now is not the time.
- A pathway to increases tied to rising economy.
- An indication that moderates want a delay.
- Why the hospitality industry is a special case.
- Tone m ust be:
- Respectful
- Practical
- Outreach:
- Digital
- Authentic
- Scalable
Com m unications Strategy
Next Steps
- W indow of doubt
- There is currently a “window of doubt” about the NDP
commitment.
- Minim um W age ‘Tow n Halls’
- Planned by GOA to explore stakeholder views.
- Official announcem ent
- October 2016 increases likely to be announced in June
2016.
- Micro-site, social m edia plan, earned m edia plan
- In development for launch ASAP
.
Com m unications Strategy