What’s up with the labor market? Jacqueline Michael-Midkiff BLS Regional Economist Mountain Plains Information Office Kansas Economic Outlook Series – Hays November 3, 2017 1 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS • bls.gov
What is the BLS? Part of U.S. Department of Labor and an independent statistical agency Principal Federal agency responsible for measuring Labor market activity Working conditions Price changes in the economy Mission: Collect , analyze , and disseminate essential economic information to support public and private decision-making Serve diverse user communities by providing products and services that are accurate, objective, relevant, timely and accessible 2 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS • bls.gov 2 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS • bls.gov 2
BLS values in action Half full? Half empty? It is an 8 oz. glass with 4 oz. of liquid 3 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS • bls.gov 3 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS • bls.gov
The Employment Situation’s two headline indicators Two independent perspectives Current Population Survey (household data) Current Employment Statistics (establishment data) Why two? More complete picture — employers and employees Compensating advantages 4 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS • bls.gov 4 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS • bls.gov
The Employment Situation’s two headline indicators Unemployment rate From household survey Share of people in labor force that are unemployed (by official definition) Detail by demographics, occupation, duration of unemployment, etc. Payroll growth From establishment survey Change in jobs during period, not people Detail by industry 5 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS • bls.gov 5 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS • bls.gov
Household View 6 6 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS • bls.gov
What is the current unemployment rate? a) 1.7 % b) 4.2 % c) 5.1 % d) 8.3 % 7 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS • bls.gov 7 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS • bls.gov
Alternative labor underutilization measures tell similar story about the recession and recovery U-6: Total unemployed plus marginally attached workers and persons employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of labor force plus marginally attached workers. P U-6 U-4 U-5 U-3 Official Unemployment Rate U-2 U-1 Note: Shaded area represents recession as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 8 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS • bls.gov 8 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS • bls.gov
Unemployment rates fall in most states over the year (September 2017) 9 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS • bls.gov 9
Long-term unemployment declining Seasonally adjusted Note: Shaded area represents recession as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 10 10 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS • bls.gov
Involuntary part time work declining, but still high Note: Shaded area represents recession as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS • bls.gov
Establishment View 12 12 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS • bls.gov
Job growth has averaged around 150,000 per month in 2017 13 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS • bls.gov 13 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS • bls.gov 13
Employment growth by state, Sept 2016 – Sept 2017 14 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS • bls.gov 14 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS • bls.gov
Half of Ellis County private industry employment is concentrated in two supersectors 15 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS • bls.gov 15 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS • bls.gov
Some industries still recovering Employment level by U.S. industry, seasonally adjusted Education and health services Professional and business services Retail Trade Leisure and Hospitality Manufacturing Construction Wholesale Trade Transportation and Warehousing Note: Shaded area represents recession as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 16 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS • bls.gov 16
Employment change over the year by industry Seasonally adjusted, 12-month net change, September 2017 17 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS • bls.gov
Strong professional and business services growth 18 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS • bls.gov
Employment change - professional and technical services industries Seasonally adjusted, 12-month net change, September 2017 19 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS • bls.gov
Job growth in health care 20 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS • bls.gov
Health care added over 300,000 jobs over the year Seasonally adjusted, 12-month net change, September 2017 Ambulatory health care services Hospitals Nursing and residential care facilities 21 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS • bls.gov
Retail trade has lost 107,000 jobs since January 22 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS • bls.gov
Employment change – retail trade industries Seasonally adjusted, 12-month net change, September 2017 23 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS • bls.gov
Construction growth has slowed 24 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS • bls.gov
Manufacturing job growth 25 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS • bls.gov 25 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS • bls.gov
Transportation and warehousing growth similar to 2016 26 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS • bls.gov 26 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS • bls.gov
Employment Projections 27 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS • bls.gov
Moderate Growth in Population and Labor Force Labor force Annual rates of change Civilian non-institutional population aged 16 and over Employment 2.3% 2.1% 1.9% 1.5% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.2% 1.1% 1.0% 0.9% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 1976-86 1986-96 1996-2006 2006-16 Projected 2016-26 Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics 28 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS • bls.gov
The Labor Force is Aging Percent distribution of the labor force 100% 11.9 16.8 22.5 24.8 55 and older 80% 19.7 23.2 45 to 54 21.3 19.2 60% 27.3 23.7 35 to 44 20.6 22.2 40% 25.3 25 to 34 21.5 22.3 22.1 20% 15.8 14.8 13.3 16 to 24 11.7 0% 1996 2006 2016 Projected 2026 29 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS • bls.gov
Real GDP Growth Below Historical Levels 10-year compound annual rate of change 6 4 Projected 2.0% over 2016-26 2 0 1956-66 1966-76 1976-86 1986-96 1996-06 2006-16 Projected 2016-26 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics 30 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS • bls.gov
Which industry is expected to add the most jobs between 2016 and 2026? a) Health care b) Professional and technical services c) Federal government d) Information 31 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS • bls.gov 31 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS • bls.gov
Health Care and Social Assistance remains the job machine Annual rate of change for wage and Thousands of wage and salary employment, projected 2016-26 salary jobs added, 2016 3,998 Health care and social assistance 1.9% 91 Mining 1.4% 1.3% 507 Educational services, private 1.2% 865 Construction 1.0% Professional and business services 2,160 Total 0.8% Leisure and hospitality nonagricultural 1,319 wage and 0.7% Transportation and warehousing 364 salary annual 0.6% Financial activities 480 growth = Service providing Other services 0.7% 0.5% 352 Goods producing 0.4% State and local government 789 0.3% Retail trade 412 0.2% Wholesale trade 146 0.2% Information 53 Utilities 0.1% 3 -0.2% Federal government -56 -0.6% Manufacturing -736 32 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS • bls.gov
5 of the 10 Fastest Growing Occupations are Related to Healthcare Median annual Employment change, projected Percent change, wages, May 2016 2016-26 (in thousands) projected 2016-26 $39,240 11.9 105.3% Solar photovoltaic installers $52,260 5.5 96.1% Wind turbine service technicians $22,600 425.6 Home health aides 46.7% $21,920 754.0 Personal care aides 37.4% $101,480 39.7 Physician assistants 37.4% $100,910 56.0 36.0% Nurse practitioners $80,500 33.4% 12.4 Statisticians $56,610 30.8% 27.2 Physical therapist assistants $100,080 30.5% 253.4 Software developers, applications $105,810 Mathematicians 29.4% 0.9 33 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS • bls.gov
Other Indicators 34 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS • bls.gov
Wage increases remain above 2% Note: Shaded area represents recession as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 35 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS • bls.gov 35 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS • bls.gov
Number of unemployed persons per job opening declining Note: Shaded area represents recession as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 36 36 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS • bls.gov
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