SLIDE 1 What Does Climate Change Mean for Whitefish?
Regional partnership:
- City of Whitefish
- Glacier National Park
- Flathead Electric Coop
- Schools
- Businesses
- Non-profits
- Individuals
Whitefish City Council resolution establishes CAP on
- Dec. 5, 2016 to work with
Climate Smart Partnership and Energy Corps. Presentation to Whitefish Climate Action Plan Committee 1st Meeting, Feb. 8, 2017 Steve Thompson Board Chairman
About Us
SLIDE 2 Our Climate Smart Approach
Working Groups:
- Built Environment
- Transportation
- Food and Soil
- Green Business
- Education & Outreach
- Natural Resources
SLIDE 3 National Climate Assessment 2014 NCA prepared by over 300 scientists, 13 federal agencies, many universities
http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/
Climate Trends & Projections
Montana Climate Assessment Due for public release, Spring 2017
http://montanaioe.org/mca
Presentation courtesy of Climate.Place
SLIDE 4
U.S. Temperature Change Since 1900
Since 1900, average temps in Glacier region increased 2.4°F
SLIDE 5
Observed U.S. Precipitation Change
Trends for NW Montana are mixed
SLIDE 6
Projected U.S. Temperature Change
Whitefish average temperatures could increase 7 degrees F this century
SLIDE 7
Northwest Summary More intense downpours, primarily in winter More precip in winter/spring Hotter, drier summers Precipitation Change by Season by 2070 – 2100
Future Precipitation Projections
SLIDE 8
Projections Depend upon Emission Scenario
SLIDE 9
Projections: More Extreme Downpours
2014 National Climate Assessment
Frequency of extreme precip could increase 2- 3 times by 2100
SLIDE 10
More intense winter storms forecast for Northwest
Heaviest winter storms in PNW will dump one-third more rain/snow per hour and arrive 4.6 times more frequently by 2100 Prein, A.F. et al, Nature Climate Change, 2016 Prein interview with KUOW
Increase due to more frequent, intense atmospheric rivers
SLIDE 11 Atmospheric Rivers
Satellite image of huge AR in Jan. 2016 Tropical fire hose aka “Pineapple Express” Projected increases in Northwest:
- Precipitation due to extreme ARs increases by 15%–39% by 2090s
- Frequency above historical 99th percentile increases as much as 290% - shifting normal
Mass and Salathe, et al, 2015
SLIDE 12
Expanding Flood Hazard Areas by 2100
FEMA 2013 report
SLIDE 13
Change in # of Consecutive Dry Days by 2100
National Climate Assessment
15% increase by 2070-2100 relative to 1970-2000
SLIDE 14 Megadrought Risk
Nearly 50% chance
years or longer in duration by the end of this century if climate change is not mitigated.
SLIDE 15
Longer seasons of extreme fire danger
Projected increase 2041-2070 compared to 1971 – 2000 NOAA, University of Idaho and US Forest Service report, August 2015
SLIDE 16
More Burned Areas in Northwest’s Future
By the 2080s, the annual area burned in the Northwest would quadruple relative to the 1916 to 2007 period.
SLIDE 17 Wildfire Smoke Piles up in Montana
Projections by 2050:
in much of Montana
increase by 31%
Liu et al, 2016
SLIDE 18 Summary of Projected Impacts for NW MT
- More intense downpours, primarily in winter
- More precipitation in winter/spring
- More rain, less snowpack, earlier snow melt
- Hotter, drier summers
- By the 2080s, the annual area burned in the Northwest expected to
quadruple
- Number of smoky days expected to double by 2050
- Annual average temperatures projected to increase 7 degrees F by
2071-2099 relative to 1970-1999 Projections based upon Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 - “Business as Usual” Emissions Scenario
SLIDE 19
Weighing Likelihood and Consequence
SLIDE 20
Green Resilience to Manage Risk
Reduce emissions while preparing for change
