What can we learn from data? Annex 58, 60 and 66 Meeting LBNL, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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What can we learn from data? Annex 58, 60 and 66 Meeting LBNL, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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What can we learn from data? Annex 58, 60 and 66 Meeting LBNL, Berkeley, September 2014 Henrik Madsen www.henrikmadsen.org Contents Non-parametric, conditional-parametric and semi-parametric models, .. (in Annex ?? ) RC-network, Lumped,

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What can we learn from data?

Annex 58, 60 and 66 Meeting

LBNL, Berkeley, September 2014

Henrik Madsen www.henrikmadsen.org

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Annex 58, 60 and 66 LBNL, Berkeley, September 2014

Contents

Non-parametric, conditional-parametric and semi-parametric models, .. (in Annex ??) RC-network, Lumped, ARMAX and grey-box models, .. (Annex 58) Markov chain models, Generalized linear models, .. (Annex 66) Examples only!

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Annex 58, 60 and 66 LBNL, Berkeley, September 2014

Part 1 Non-parametric methods

Typically only data from smart meter (and a nearby existing MET station)

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Data

  • 10 min averages from 56 houses in Sønderborg
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Case Study No. 1

Split of total readings into space heating and domestic hot water using data from smart meters

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Splitting of total meter readings

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Holiday period

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Case Study No. 2

  • Ident. of Thermal Performance

using Smart Meter Data

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Results

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Perspectives for using data from Smart Meters

Reliable Energy Signature. Energy Labelling Time Constants (eg for night set- back) Proposals for Energy Savings:

Replace the windows? Put more insulation on the roof? Is the house too untight? ......

Optimized Control Integration of Solar and Wind Power using DSM

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Case Study No. 3 Control of Power Consumption (DSM)

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The Danish Wind Power Case

In 2008 wind power did cover the entire demand of electricity in 200 hours (West DK) In December 2013 and January 2014 more than 55 pct

  • f electricity load was covered by wind power. And

for several days the wind power production was more than 120 pct of the power load

.... balancing of the power system

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Annex 58, 60 and 66 LBNL, Berkeley, September 2014

Data from BPA

Olympic Pensinsula project

27 houses during one year Flexible appliances: HVAC, cloth dryers and water boilers 5-min prices, 15-min consumption Objective: limit max consumption

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Aggregation (over 20 houses)

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Non-parametric Response on Price Step Change

Olympic Peninsula

Model inputs: price, minute of day, outside temperature/dewpoint, sun irrandiance

5 hours

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Control of Energy Consumption

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Control performance

With a price penality avoiding its divergence

  • Considerable reduction in peak consumption
  • Mean daily consumption shift
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Part 2 Parametric Models

A model for the thermal characteristics of a small

  • ffice building

A nonlinear model for a ventilated facade

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Case study

Model for the thermal characteristics

  • f a small office building
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Flexhouse at SYSLAB (DTU Risø)

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Model found using Grey-box modelling (using CTSM-R and a RC-model) Here we estimate the physical parameters

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Modelling the thermal dynamics

  • f a building integrated and

ventilated PV module

Several non- linear and time- varying phenomena. Consequently linear RC-network models are not appropriate. A grey-box approach using CTSM-R is described in Friling et.al. (2009)

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Part 3 Non-gaussian models (Annex 66)

  • Occupancy modelling

is a necessary step towards reliable simulation of energy consumption in buildings

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Occupant presence (office building in SF!)

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Markov Chain Models

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Model simulations

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Remarks and Summary

Other examples ... but not shown here: Shading (.. also dirty windows) Time-varying phenomena (.. eg. moisture in materials) Behavioural actions (opening of doors, windows, etc.) Appliance modelling Interactions with HVAC systems ........ ... in general data and statistical methods (including tests) can be used to describe or model a number phenomena that cannot be described neither deterministically nor from first principles.

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For more information ...

  • See for instance

www.henrikmadsen.org www.smart-cities-centre.org

  • ...or contact

– Henrik Madsen (DTU Compute)

hmad@dtu.dk

  • Acknowledgement CITIES (DSF 1305-00027B)
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2008 2011

Some 'randomly picked' books on modeling ....

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