What 450,000 Conversations with Working-Class Voters Tell Us - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

What 450,000 Conversations with Working-Class Voters Tell Us National Office 815 16TH ST. NW WASHINGTON, DC 20006 TEL 202-637-5137 INFO@WORKINGAMERICA.ORG

Health Care Has Increasingly Become the Top Issue for More Voters Regardless of Race… Share of Voters Saying Health Care is Their Top Issue Composite Based on Historical Canvass ID Data African American White 30% 20% 10% 0% 2012 2014 2016 2018 2

Gender… Share of Voters Saying Health Care is Their Top Issue Composite Based on Historical Canvass ID Data Female Male 30% 20% 10% 0% 2012 2014 2016 2018 3

Geography… Share of Voters Saying Health Care is Their Top Issue Composite Based on Historical Canvass ID Data MN NC OH PA 30% 20% 10% 0% 2012 2014 2016 2018 4

Or Partisanship. Share of Voters Saying Health Care is Their Top Issue Composite Based on Historical Canvass ID Data Republican-Leaning Swing Democrat-Leaning 30% 20% 10% 0% 2012 2014 2016 2018 5

Health Care vs Other Issues Who’s Winning on Each Issue? Votes Netted by Issue Controlling for the Partisanship of the Electorate (per 100 voters) Advantage Republican Advantage Democrat Health Care 8 Education 7 Transportation 0 Gov Spending/Deficit 0 Taxes 1 Jobs and the Economy 2 6

Progressives Are Increasingly Getting Their Vote Advantage from Working-Class Voters Who Say Health Care is Their Top Issue Vote Advantage for Democrats Derived from Health Care Voters Composite Based on Historical Canvass ID Data White Working Class Working Class-People of Color 2 2012 8 2 2014 10 4 2016 13 9 2018 19 Vote Advantage Per One Hundred Voters 7

THE QUESTION YOU ASK . . . Paid Media Increases, Communications Keep Voters Focused Number of Ads Run in Battleground Change in Share of Voters Saying Health Elections Care is an Important Voting Issue (Source: Wesleyan Media Project) +8.7pp Treatment Effect 111,543 OCT. 0.5% 44,524 SEPT. Placebo Treatment AUG. 13,624 -8.2% Composite from battleground races in Composite from Clinical Testing in battleground races in CA, MN, OH CA, MN, OH 8

Continued Contact Via Digital = Cost Efficient Vote Gain Votes Gained Per $100 18.9 12.5 4.2 2.2 Minnesota Governor CA-10 Ohio Governor PA-18 Special- GOP Health Care Voters 9