Welcome, Agenda & Disclaimers John Renwick VP Investor - - PDF document

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Welcome, Agenda & Disclaimers John Renwick VP Investor - - PDF document

Kellogg Company May 2, 2019 May 2, 2019 KELLOGG COMPANY | Q1 2019 EARNINGS | MAY 2, 2019 Welcome, Agenda & Disclaimers John Renwick VP Investor Relations & Corporate Planning KELLOGG COMPANY | Q1 2019 EARNINGS | MAY 2, 2019 2 1 of


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KELLOGG COMPANY | Q1 2019 EARNINGS | MAY 2, 2019

May 2, 2019

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Welcome, Agenda & Disclaimers

John Renwick VP Investor Relations & Corporate Planning

2

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Forward-Looking Statements

This presentation contains, or incorporates by reference, “forward-looking statements” with projections concerning, among other things, the Company’s global growth and efficiency program (Project K), the integration of acquired businesses, the Company’s strategy, zero-based budgeting, and the Company’s sales, earnings, margin, operating profit, costs and expenditures, interest expense, tax rate, capital expenditure, dividends, cash flow, debt reduction, share repurchases, costs, charges, rates of return, brand building, ROIC, working capital, growth, new products, innovation, cost reduction projects, workforce reductions, savings, and competitive

  • pressures. Forward-looking statements include predictions of future results or activities and may contain the words “expects,” “believes,” “should,” “will,” “anticipates,”

“projects,” “estimates,” “implies,” “can,” or words or phrases of similar meaning. The Company’s actual results or activities may differ materially from these predictions. The Company’s future results could also be affected by a variety of factors, including the expected benefits and costs of the divestiture of selected cookies, fruit and fruit flavored-snacks, pie crusts and ice cream cones businesses of the Company, the expected timing of the completion of the divestiture, the ability of the Company to complete the divestiture considering the various conditions to the completion of the divestiture, some of which are outside the Company’s control, including those conditions related to regulatory approvals, the risk that disruptions from the divestiture will divert management's focus or harm the Company’s business, risks relating to any unforeseen changes to or effects on liabilities, future capital expenditures, revenues, expenses, earnings, synergies, indebtedness, financial condition, losses and future prospects, risks associated with the Company’s provision of transition services to the divested businesses post-closing, the ability to implement restructurings as planned, whether the expected amount of costs associated with restructurings will differ from forecasts, whether the Company will be able to realize the anticipated benefits from restructurings in the amounts and times expected, the ability to realize the anticipated benefits and synergies from business acquisitions in the amounts and at the times expected, the impact of competitive conditions; the effectiveness of pricing, advertising, and promotional programs; the success of innovation, renovation and new product introductions; the recoverability of the carrying value of goodwill and other intangibles; the success of productivity improvements and business transitions; commodity and energy prices; transportation costs; labor costs; disruptions or inefficiencies in supply chain; the availability of and interest rates on short-term and long-term financing; actual market performance of benefit plan trust investments; the levels of spending on systems initiatives, properties, business opportunities, integration of acquired businesses, and other general and administrative costs; changes in consumer behavior and preferences; the effect of U.S. and foreign economic conditions on items such as interest rates, statutory tax rates, currency conversion and availability; legal and regulatory factors including changes in food safety, advertising and labeling laws and regulations; the ultimate impact of product recalls; business disruption or other losses from war, terrorist acts or political unrest; and other items. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they were made, and the Company undertakes no obligation to update them publicly. This presentation includes non‐GAAP financial measures. Please refer to the earnings press release, which is available on the Investor Relations page on the Company’s website, www.Kelloggcompany.com, for a reconciliation of these non‐GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures. Management believes that the use of such non-GAAP measures assists investors in understanding the underlying operating performance of the company and its segments. KELLOGG COMPANY | Q1 2019 EARNINGS | MAY 2, 2019

Overview

Steve Cahillane Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

4

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CFO Transition

Thank you, Fareed! Congratulations, Amit!

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Q1: On Strategy

  • Divestiture of non-

core businesses

  • Emerging-markets

expansion

  • Enhanced

structure and capabilities

  • Strategic buyer
  • Portfolio focus
  • Financial flexibility
  • Broadened portfolio
  • Expanded distribution
  • Strong growth
  • North America reorganization
  • Global commercial resources
  • Digital/e-commerce
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Q1: On Plan

  • Momentum for

revitalized brands

  • Innovation and revenue

growth management

  • Organic growth
  • vercame headwinds
  • On track for 1H and Year
  • Pringles, Cheez-It, Rice Krispies Treats, Pop-Tarts
  • Mini-Wheats, Corn Flakes, Extra, Tresor
  • Restored pipeline
  • Major launches
  • Good start
  • RX recall
  • Shipment timing in U.S. cereal
  • Q1 to Q2 timing of investment
  • Pre-divestiture

KELLOGG COMPANY | Q1 2019 EARNINGS | MAY 2, 2019

Financial Results & Outlook

Fareed Khan Chief Financial Officer

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Q1 – Summary of Financial Results

Reported Currency-Neutral Adjusted* * Please refer to Q1 2019 earnings press release tables for reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure.

$ in Millions, % Change Versus Prior Year

Net Sales Operating Profit Earnings Per Share

Reported Currency-Neutral *

  • Organic growth, including positive price realization
  • Multipro acquisition/consolidation
  • Lapped year-ago favorability in factory costs
  • Increased input-cost inflation
  • Costs related to alternative pack formats
  • Investments in capabilities
  • Lapped year-ago discrete tax benefit
  • Pension expense negatively affected by lower

pension asset value at beginning of year

Vs. Year Ago +3.5% +7.2% (25.4)% (4.6)% (15.4)% (35.4)%

Cash Flow

  • Q1 always the seasonally low quarter
  • Lower Net Income, and timing of tax

payments within year

$(174) Q1 2019 $3,522 $3,645 $381 $477 $0.82 $1.04 $(78)

Currency-Neutral Adjusted* Reported

*

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Net Sales – Return to Organic Growth

Year-over-year, % change

Net Sales Growth by Components*

* Please refer to Q1 2019 earnings press release tables for reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure.

  • International

growth

  • Consumption
  • utpaced shipments

in U.S.

  • RGM actions

starting to take hold

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Gross Profit Margin – Cost & Mix Impacts

% of Net Sales, Currency-Neutral Adjusted Basis * * Please refer to Q1 2019 earnings press release tables for reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure.

Gross Profit Margin*

Ongoing: ~(90) bp

Cost inflation and comparisons

(transportation, energy, inputs)

Productivity savings

Mechanical: ~(110) bp

Multipro consolidation, May 2018

Growth-Related: ~(140) bp

Adverse costs and mix shifts (pack formats,

emerging markets)

RX recall write-offs

_

+

_ _ _

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Below-the-Line Items – Year-On-Year Headwinds

* Please refer to Q1 2019 earnings press release tables for reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure.

  • Interest Expense

$(5)

  • Other Income

$(9)

  • Year-Ago Tax Benefit

$(44)

$ in Millions, Versus Year Ago, Positive/(Negative), Currency-Neutral Adjusted Basis

Debt related to acquisition of increased stakes in West Africa operations during Q2 2018 Lower pension asset values entering the year, following December 2018 financial markets’ decline; partially offset by other items Impact of lapping discrete tax benefit in Q1 2018

Q1 2019

  • Vs. Year Ago

* *

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Pending Divestiture – Announced April 1st

Cookies Ice Cream Cones Fruit Snacks Pie Crusts

Businesses Being Sold: Businesses We Retain From 2001 Keebler Acquisition:

Crackers

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Pending Divestiture – Near-Term Financial Impact

* Currency-neutral Adjusted basis. Please refer to Q1 2019 earnings press release tables for reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure.

Next Steps

  • Late July close
  • Transition Services

Agreement

Proceeds

  • $1,300 sale price
  • Estimated net

proceeds $900-1,000

  • Debt reduction

Impact

  • Divested net sales,

profit, cash flow

  • ~(5)% dilutive to 12-

month EPS, more in 2019 than 2020

$ in Millions

*

As Announced on April 1:

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Full-Year 2019 Guidance – No Changes

  • Base Business – No change to guidance given February 7
  • Divestiture Impact – As indicated in April 1 announcement

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2019 Full-Year Outlook – Adjusting for Divestiture

* Currency-neutral Adjusted basis. Please refer to Q1 2019 earnings press release tables for reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure. (a) 2019 guidance for Currency Neutral Net Sales growth excludes the impact of foreign currency translation. Organic growth also excludes acquisitions, divestitures, and changes in shipping days. (b) 2019 guidance for adjusted Operating Profit and adjusted Earnings Per Share excludes the impact of mark-to-market adjustments, restructuring costs, and other gains/costs impacting

  • comparability. Currency neutral also excludes the impact of foreign currency translation.

Adjusted EPS(b)

Currency Neutral

Adjusted Operating Profit(b)

Currency Neutral

Net Sales(a)

Currency Neutral

+3-4% ~ Flat (5)-(7)%

  • Organic growth remains +1-2%, an improvement from 2018
  • Multipro acquisition impact for 4 months; divestiture impact for 4-5 months
  • Gradual improvement in balance between volume and price/mix
  • Net input/freight cost inflation, with toughest comps in 1H
  • Mix and costs for alternate pack formats, mainly in 1H
  • Incentive compensation versus below-target 2018
  • Divestiture: Transition services delay stranded-costs extraction
  • Tax rate ~21%, lapping ~ 5 pts. of discrete tax benefits of 2018
  • Interest expense up on full year of acquisition debt and higher

floating rates

  • Other income decreases sharply on lower pension asset value

Cash Flow * ~ Flat

  • Divestiture impact on cash flow will depend on transition-

services plan and business realignment

Growth vs. Prior Year * (2)-(3)% (4)-(5)% (4)-(5)% TBD

Previous Guidance

~+1-2% (4)-(5)% (10)-(11)% TBD

2019 Impact

  • f Divestiture

Guidance After Divestiture

No Change No Change No Change No Change

Key Assumptions

No Change

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Pending Divestiture – Rationale

+

Improves growth mix of portfolio

+

Improves margin mix of portfolio

+

Reduces complexity

+

Focuses resources

+

Enhances financial flexibility

Over time, accretive to growth in net sales, operating profit, and earnings.

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Business Updates

Steve Cahillane Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

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Continuing to Improve Top-Line Performance

Net Sales Growth, in Percent, Organic Basis *

* Organic net sales growth excludes the impact of foreign currency translation, acquisitions, divestitures, and changes in shipping days. KELLOGG COMPANY | Q1 2019 EARNINGS | MAY 2, 2019 20

North America – Improvement Despite Headwinds

* Please refer to the Q1 2019 earnings press release for reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure.

  • Strong growth by key snacks

brands

  • RX recall
  • Cereal held back by shipment

timing

  • Increased innovation
  • RGM beginning to yield positive

price realization

  • Agreement to divest non-core

brands Q1 Highlights:

Q1 Net Sales * (1.5)%

  • Adj. Op. Profit *

(3.4)%

Currency-Neutral, Adjusted basis, unless otherwise noted *

  • Sustained momentum in

snacks power brands

  • RX recovery and

expansion

  • Gradual stabilization in

cereal

  • Steady growth in frozen

foods

  • Adapt to new org

structure

  • Divestiture to focus

portfolio What to Watch for in 2019:

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North America – Snacks

Net Sales on Currency-Neutral Basis

Momentum for Strongest Brands Consumption Growth +14% +12% +8% +4% +3% Exciting, Incremental Innovation

Q1 Net Sales * 0% Source: Nielsen, xAOC, 13 weeks 3/30/19 * Please refer to the Q1 2019 earnings press release for reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure. Despite recall KELLOGG COMPANY | Q1 2019 EARNINGS | MAY 2, 2019 22

North America – Cereal

Revitalizing Brands Consumption Growth +22% +5% +1% Exciting, Incremental Innovation

Q1 Net Sales * (4)% Source: Nielsen, xAOC, 13 weeks 3/30/19

Pack-Size Harmonization

Net Sales on Currency-Neutral Basis

* Please refer to the Q1 2019 earnings press release for reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure.

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North America – Frozen

Lapped YAG +DD Net Sales growth

Q1 Net Sales * (1)%

Net Sales on Currency-Neutral Basis

* Please refer to the Q1 2019 earnings press release for reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure. KELLOGG COMPANY | Q1 2019 EARNINGS | MAY 2, 2019 24

Europe – Strong Performance

* Please refer to the Q1 2019 earnings press release for reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure.

  • Pringles momentum
  • Cereal off slightly, despite

good emerging-markets growth

  • Return to growth in

wholesome snacks

  • Russia +DD
  • RGM yielded positive

price realization Q1 Highlights:

Q1 Net Sales * 4.4%

  • Adj. Op. Profit *

9.9%

Currency-Neutral, Adjusted basis, unless otherwise noted

  • Pringles sustained

momentum

  • Share growth in cereal
  • Transformation of

wholesome snacks

  • Expansion in Russia and

Central Europe What to Watch for in 2019:

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Latin America – Sustained Momentum

* Please refer to the Q1 2019 earnings press release for reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure.

  • Parati momentum in

Brazil

  • Pringles expansion,

despite Argentina

  • Mexico momentum in

cereal

  • Increased investment
  • RGM yielded positive

price realization Q1 Highlights:

Q1 Net Sales * 4.3%

  • Adj. Op. Profit *

(2.6)%

Currency-Neutral, Adjusted basis, unless otherwise noted

  • Expansion of Parati
  • Growth in Pringles
  • Mexico cereal growth
  • Stabilization of

Caribbean/Central America What to Watch for in 2019:

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AMEA – Continued Growth

* Please refer to the Q1 2019 earnings press release for reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure.

  • Multipro +DD in spite of

election disruptions

  • Rapid expansion in

Middle East

  • Pringles +DD overall
  • Australia cereal stable
  • RGM yielded positive

price realization Q1 Highlights:

Q1 Net Sales * +77.5% Organic +4.1%

  • Adj. Op. Profit *

+26.7%

Currency-Neutral, Adjusted basis, unless otherwise noted

  • Expansion in Africa
  • Sustained Pringles growth
  • Continued cereal growth

in Asia & Africa

  • Stable Australia

What to Watch for in 2019:

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Summary

Steve Cahillane Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

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In Summary…

  • Deploy for Growth – reorganization, revitalization of brands, expansion of

emerging markets

  • Divestiture – strategic buyer, more focused portfolio, financial flexibility
  • Q1 – Improved top-line performance, overcame headwinds
  • Guidance – no change other than adjustment for divestiture

On Strategy On Plan