WE L COME T O H SAANICH T HE DIST RICT OF NORT OCP MARINE POL ICY & GUIDE L INE S RE COMME NDAT IONS F OR SE A L E VE L RISE PL ANNING & ADAPT AT ION PROPOSE D NE W DE VE L OPME NT PE RMIT ARE A AS T WO PROPOSE D SPE CIAL DE VE L OPME NT ARE PUBL IC CONSUL T AT ION R 19 T H 2017 T HURSDAY, OCT OBE
DNS Adaptation Ac tion Plan Mar ine T ask F or c e DNS F CL Re vie w (2008) Studie s Ma rine Polic y Re vie w Community Consultation 2011 2015 2017 2019 2013 2011 Pro vinc e upda te s SL R flo o d ma na g e me nt g uide line Do c ume nts 2017 Ja nua ry 26 2013 Co mmunity Co nsulta tio n Pr ope r ty Rig hts on Wa te r fr ont (PROW) a ssoc ia tion c a lls for DNS initia tive 2014 Ca pita l Re g io na l Distric t 2017 Oc tobe r 19 (CRD) sta rts Re g io na l Consulta tion Upda te F lo o d Co nstruc tio n L e ve l (F CL ) a sse ssme nt 2014 2017 Oc to b e r 26 Dr T o m Pe te rse n SDA F ie ld wo rksho p a ddre sse s Co unc il o n Se a 2017 / 2018, Winte r L e ve l Rise Pro vinc e upda te s Co unc il OCP Po lic y Optio ns o n upda ting o f F HAL MG a ppro va l Pub lic c o nsulta tio n zo ning po lic ie s DNS F lo o d Ada pta tio n Pro g ra m: Co ntinuing Co nsulta tio n
OCP Marine Policy & Guideline Recommendations Community Consultation Update 19 October 2017
Agenda AGENDA Registration and Coffee 4:00 Opening Remarks District of North Saanich 4:30 Mayor Finall Overview of Marine Policy Planning & Flood Construction Level Consultation Update Marine Policy & Regulations Planning - SLR Update - OCP - Proposed Changes Review John 4:45 - OCP – Updated Proposed Changes Readshaw - OCP – DPA 9 Sea Level Rise Coastal Flood Hazard Areas - OCP - Shoal Harbour Migratory Bird Sanctuary - OCP – Infrastructure - Protection and Adaptation Discussion 5:45 Open Introduction to Special Development Areas Section 13 OCP John 6:15 - Tsehum Harbour Readshaw - Lochside Drive Section 13 OCP - Plan for Next Meeting - November 16, 2017 Closing Remarks 6:30 Mayor Finall DNS Flood Adaptation Program: Continuing Consultation 4
Acknowledgements › Sherry Lim, P. Eng. Project Engineer, Policy Review › Jessica Wilson, EIT Project Engineer, FCL Study › Brett Korteling Mapping Consultant › Reviewers from North Saanich › Resident Questionaire Returns and Comments
SLR Update Since January 2017
Updated Guidance Summary Hansen et al, 2016 AR5 2014 including WA ice sheet melting estimate today AR5 2014 RCP 8.5 UB Post AR4 2007Guidance 5 4 relative to 2000 [m] Sea Level Change 3 2 BC 2011 Planning Curve 1 0 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 RPC8.5+WA DNS Flood Adaptation Program: Continuing Consultation 7
Recent Events (post January 2017) › Larson C Ice Shelf broke off (no direct rise in sea levels but opens up yet another Antarctic Ice sheet for rapid calving – leads to increasing SLR › Another summer of low summer ice cover in Arctic › Mapping of Greenland and Antarctic shows much larger areas of ice sheets exposed to ocean (warm) waters – implications are more consistent with exponential rise in SLR › Regional Satellite measurements analysis show accelerated SLR in Pacific NW area › Global mean SLR has slowed for now › Tropical storms in Atlantic – Caribbean unusually severe in both rainfall and wind › Post Tropical Storm Ophelia brings hurricane force winds to Ireland – furthest north progression of tropical storm on record
Recent Global Mean Sea Level Rise 80 60 Mean sea level (mm) 40 20 0
Recent Global Mean Sea Level Rise 80 60 Mean sea level (mm) 40 20 0
Global Mean SLR – 1992 -2017 Credit: http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov
Recent NE Pacific Sea Level Rise Pacific NW 1 1993 - 2015 Source: Hamlington, B.D. et al, “An ongoing shift in Pacific Ocean Sea Level, JGR, 121, 5084-5097, 2016
Recent Pacific NW Sea Level Rise Trends Avg Sea Level Anomaly (mm) 100 Total Sea Level 50 Longer Term Oscillation El Nino – La Nina Effect 0 -50 Source: Hamlington, B.D. et al, “An ongoing shift in Pacific Ocean Sea Level, JGR, 121, 5084-5097, 2016
Recent Pacific NW Sea Level Rise Trends ≈ 33 mm/yr Avg Sea Level Anomaly (mm) 100 Total Sea Level 50 Longer Term Oscillation El Nino – La Nina Effect 0 -50 Source: Hamlington, B.D. et al, “An ongoing shift in Pacific Ocean Sea Level, JGR, 121, 5084-5097, 2016
Relevant Provincial Guidelines Progress
Timeline 2017, January 26 Community Consultation 2016 - 2017 FCL Study: vulnerable 2017, Fall areas identified Continuing Consultation DNS Special Development Adaptation Areas Action Plan 2018, Winter OCP Bylaw approval Public consultation zoning policies 2016, January DNS Flood Construction Level (FCL) study begins 2000 2005 2010 2020 2015 2014 2004 2011 Capital Regional District Province downloads Province updates Flood (CRD) starts Regional Flood responsibility to local Management Guideline Construction Level (FCL) governments Documents for Sea Level assessment Rise 2014 2012 / 2013 LiDAR topographic Various presentations on the implications of Sea Level mapping funded by Rise on BC shorelines Province 2013 Property Rights on Waterfront (PROW) associations calls for DNS initiative DNS Flood Adaptation Program: Continuing Consultation 16
Timeline 2017, January 26 Community Consultation 2016 - 2017 FCL Study: vulnerable 2017, Fall areas identified Continuing Consultation DNS Special Development Adaptation Areas Action Plan 2018, Winter OCP Bylaw approval Public consultation zoning policies 2016, January DNS Flood Construction Level (FCL) study begins 2000 2005 2010 2020 2015 2014 2004 2011 Capital Regional District Province downloads Province updates Flood (CRD) starts Regional Flood responsibility to local Management Guideline Construction Level (FCL) governments Documents for Sea Level assessment Rise 2012 / 2013 LiDAR topographic Various presentations on the implications of Sea Level mapping funded by Rise on BC shorelines Province 2013 Property Rights on Waterfront (PROW) associations calls for DNS initiative DNS Flood Adaptation Program: Continuing Consultation 17
Implications › Updated Section 3.5 – 3.6 › Acknowledges the influence of “significant new scientific information” on the 2011 Planning Curve: › IPCC AR5 (2014) › Hansen et al (2016) › Continuing stream of information on vulnerability and pace of ice sheet melting
Significant New Scientific Information Hansen et al, 2016 AR5 2014 including WA ice sheet melting estimate today AR5 2014 RCP 8.5 UB Post AR4 2007Guidance 5 4 relative to 2000 [m] Sea Level Change 3 2 BC 2011 Planning Curve 1 0 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 RPC8.5+WA DNS Flood Adaptation Program: Continuing Consultation 19
Sea Level Rise Guidance 2017 Hansen et al, 2016 Today Post AR4 2007Guidance 5 4 relative to 2000 [m] Sea Level Change 3 2 BC 2011 Planning Curve 1 0 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 0.5 m of SLR is coming ( ∼ 2050)
Sea Level Rise Guidance 2017 Hansen et al, 2016 Today Post AR4 2007Guidance 5 4 relative to 2000 [m] Sea Level Change 3 2 BC 2011 Planning Curve 1 0 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 1 m (or more) SLR is coming ( ∼ 2065 +)
Implications of Provincial Guidelines › Updated Section 3.5 – 3.6 › Acknowledges the influence of “significant new scientific information” on the 2011 Planning Curve: › IPCC AR5 (2014) › Hansen et al (2016) › Continuing stream of information on vulnerability and pace of ice sheet melting › Procedure for defining FCL is the same as used for DNS FCL Study (2016) › Recommends establishment of Sea Level Rise Planning Areas › Recommends creation of Flood Protection Plans › Where a Flood Protection Plan has been created – FCLs may be reduced
Marine Policy Changes Updates DRAFT
Recommended Marine Policy Changes (DRAFT) › Changes to OCP Sections › Two New Special Development Areas › New Development Permit Area
January 26 2017 Responses › 100 Participants • Questions during presentation • 7 Questionaire responses • Follow-up communications: › Friends of Shoal Harbour › View Corridors DNS Flood Adaptation Program: Continuing Consultation 25
January 26 2017 Responses › West Shoreline Respondents (4): › What sea level rise has occurred so far? › Storms have not changed in 22 yrs › DNS should work with other municipalities › Concern about boat house and SLR › Keep SLR adaptation requirements simple › Concern about new DPA › Damage to W Saanich Road and Scoter Trail › More ideas for adaptation options › Mitigation actions important › Contingency planning essential › How will SLR affect utilities, sewers, storm drains and access for non-flooded properties DNS Flood Adaptation Program: Continuing Consultation 26
January 26 2017 Responses › North Shoreline Respondents (2): › How will SLR affect utilities, sewers, storm drains and access for non-flooded properties? › Allowing boat houses would allow access during flooding events › Want careful planning to occur › Concern about beach environments DNS Flood Adaptation Program: Continuing Consultation 27
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