Water Crisis in Central Asia Key Challenges and Opportunities - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Prepared by: Diana Castillo, Lisa Marie Izquierdo, Gloria Jimenez, Mari Stangerhaugen, Robert Nixon Advisor: Ambassador Rafat Mahdi

Water Crisis in Central Asia Key Challenges and Opportunities

Introduction

• Water is essential for survival and

important resource for social and economic development

• Water scarcity affects more than 40%
• f world globally; by 2025 1.8 billion

people will be living in regions with absolute water scarcity

• “Fierce competition for fresh water may

well become a source of conflict and wars in the future.”

• Former UN Secretary General, Kofi

Annan

• Water conflicts in Nile, Mekong,

Euphrates, and Ganges rivers

Intro Cont’d.

• No effective international

arrangement

• Global dimension of water:

erosion, urbanization and biodiversity loss

• Lack of attention from

international community

Overview: Water crisis in Central Asia

• Central Asia

– Turkmenistan – Kyrgyz Republic – Kazakhstan – Uzbekistan – Tajikistan

• Independence from

U.S.S.R. in 1991

• Two main river basins:

Amu Darya and Syr Darya

• Conflicting interests

between upstream and downstream countries

Source: University of Texas, 2007

Upstream vs. Downstream

Upstream: Tajikistan and Kyrgyz Republic Downstream: Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan

Few natural resources Rich in oil, gas and coal Dependence on downstream countries for energy supplies Irrigated agriculture Water as a commodity Water as common good Dams and Hydropower Aral Sea crisis

Soviet Union Legacy

• Centralized planning
• Moscow’s “White Gold”
• Water management

systems

– Water-energy exchange

Post Soviet-Era

–Bilateral Agreements –Competing interests –New Great Game

Post Soviet-Era Cont’d.

Source: SCO website, 2007

The leaders of Russia, China and several former Soviet republics met in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) 2007 summit.

Post Soviet-Era Cont’d.

• Water’s role in the

economy and social stability of Central Asia

– 60 % of population live in rural areas – 45 % of workforce is employed in agriculture – 80 % of region’s arable land relies on irrigation systems

Post Soviet-Era Cont’d.

• From command

economy to market economy

– Main trade partners: Russia European Union China

Key Challenges for Water Cooperation

1. Regional Politics 2. Management of Water Resources 3. Aral Sea Crisis 4. Climate Change

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon visiting Aral Sea in April 2010

• 1. Regional Politics
• Conflicting political/national interests
• Widespread corruption
• Divergent approaches to water management
• Role of neighboring states

– Russia

Collective Security Treaty Organization

– China

Shanghai Cooperation Organization

– Afghanistan

• 2. Management of Water Resources
• 1992 Almaty Agreement
• Only existing water agreement
• Codification of existing

practices

• Left upstream countries with

little access to the water generated on their territory

• Left out Afghanistan

(generates 6% of water flow in the Aral Sea Basin)

Source: Columbia University, Earth Institute, 2009

Management of Water Resources Cont’d.

• Limitations of the 1992 Almaty Agreement

– Unfair water allocation to downstream countries – Upstream countries expected to pay for upkeep of dams while downstream countries reap the benefits

• Current developments

– Agreement is not being adhered to. – Upstream countries are increasing domestic water usage and decreasing the amount to downstream countries

• Upstream countries’ need for

hydropower

• Struggling to meet energy needs
• Using water to generate hydropower
• Dispute over the pricing of water
• Tajikistan and the Rogun Dam

controversy

• Decrease dependency on energy

imports

• 5 % of hydropower potential

developed

• Tajikistan vs. Uzbekistan
• World Bank involvement

Management of Water Resources Cont’d.

The Rogun Dam: If completed, it will be the tallest dam in the world

• Downstream countries and the need for irrigation
• High dependence on water intensive cotton production
• Inefficient use of scarce water resources
• Water lost due to old infrastructure and pollution
• Complex water management system - lack of

coordination and interaction

Management of Water Resources Cont’d.

• Cotton Industry in Uzbekistan

– Monoculture crop – Poor irrigation practices – Tension between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan – International criticism for its labor practices

Source: Der Spiegel, 2010

Management of Water Resources Cont’d.

• 3. Aral Sea Crisis
• Once world’s 4th largest lake
• Today: Little Aral Sea and Big

Aral Sea

• Social, health and economic

effects

• Efforts to save it
• Kokaralsk Dam: Kazakhstan

and World Bank

• International Fund for saving

the Aral Sea (IFAS)

• Lack of attention to the cotton

industry

Source: UNIMAPS, 2004

• 4. Climate Change
• Rising temperatures
• 20 % of glaciers in the region

have melted

• Falling agriculture yields
• Extreme weather conditions

and natural disasters

• Opportunities for adaptation

and international funding

Source: CA.gov, 2010

Case Study: Indus Water Treaty

• Key elements
• Signed in 1961 between India

and Pakistan

• Negotiated and signed by a

benign go-between: World Bank

• Dispute settlement mechanism

through neutral expert

• Applicability to Central Asia
• Overcome competing interests

between states

• Role of neutral mediator in

crafting agreement

• Economic incentive: funding

from international community

Source: Oregon State University, 2010

Regional and International Stakeholders

Regional

• Chu-Talas Rivers Commission
• International Fund for saving the

Aral Sea (IFAS)

International

• UNDP Integrated Water

Resources Management (IWRM)

• World Bank
• Asian Development Bank (ADB)
• European Union
• United Nations Special Program

for the Economies of Central Asia (SPECA)

Lessons Learned

Competing national interests: agriculture versus hydropower creates a zero sum game The 1992 Almaty Agreement is outdated and ineffective in allocating water resources Water infrastructure in Central Asia is extremely inefficient by international standards The Indus Water Treaty shows third-party mediation in water disputes works in the long term Major debate whether water should be treated as a public good versus a commodity creating challenge for cooperation

Recommendations

For Central Asian States Increase focus on regional, rather than bilateral agreements. A neutral third-party or a group of experts as a mediator. Promote reforms that balance economic growth with environmental rehabilitation. The 1992 Almaty Agreement should be revisited, reviewed, and revised. Regional financial resources should be harnessed to assemble a pool

• f technical experts to monitor and oversee existing water

infrastructure.

Recommendations Cont’d.

For International Community Establish a new international fund to repair deteriorating water infrastructure. Identify a benign go-between to assist the countries in negotiating a new water agreement. Assemble an international group of experts to provide technical advice to policy makers. Provide economic incentives to aid the downstream countries diversify their economies. Russia should promote cooperation among the Central Asian states and provide technical assistance.

Concluding Remarks

Thank You for Your Attention!