Ward ANSEEUW, Tinashe KAPUYA, Davison SARUCHERA, Thierry GIORDANO - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Ward ANSEEUW, Tinashe KAPUYA, Davison SARUCHERA, Thierry GIORDANO - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

May 16, 2023 275 likes •464 views

0'00 Anti -globalization revisited - Perspectives on Zimbabwes (agricultural) trajectory Ward ANSEEUW, Tinashe KAPUYA, Davison SARUCHERA, Thierry GIORDANO 1'35 Presentation Zimbabwe From bread basket to aid dependency and the

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SLIDE 1

‘Anti’-globalization revisited - Perspectives on Zimbabwe’s (agricultural) trajectory

Ward ANSEEUW, Tinashe KAPUYA, Davison SARUCHERA, Thierry GIORDANO

0'00

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SLIDE 2
  • Zimbabwe – From bread basket to aid dependency and the evolution of

agriculture and food security (1980-2008)

  • Revisiting the present discourses on Zimbabwe and the impacts of the

country’s land reform (2008-2011)

  • Present questions/reflections

Presentation

1'35

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SLIDE 3

Pre-independence 1980-1989 1990-2000 2000-2008 2009-2011 Policies Strong State led import substitution industry Protection White enclave Dual land structure Strong State led Infant industry protection Tight controls through tariffs Foreign exchange allocation Growth with equity Willing buyer- willing seller Land reform (2.4M ha) IMF/World Bank led ESAP Export Promotion Trade Liberalisation Financial deregulation Export Retention Schemes Cost Recovery WTO Agreements Free market Ideology Liberalisation (goods and services) Compulsory land acquisition (1.1M ha)

  • State attempting

to regain control

  • Closed economy
  • Ad hoc state

intervention

  • Tight foreign

exchange control regulations (initially)

  • Price controls

Import control FTLRP

  • Weak state

attempting to liberalise markets

  • Dollarisation of

the economy

  • Ad hoc

interventions continue FTLRP continues State of the Economy Strong/vibrant Strong/vibrant Gradual disintegration/de- industrialisation/de- agriculturalisation Collapsing Slow recovery

  • I. Zimbabwe – From bread basket to aid dependency

2'19

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SLIDE 4

A country (formerly) in transition

  • GDP: US$ 7.100M
  • Growth rate: average +5%
  • Agriculture representing -20%
  • 70% pop linked to agriculture
  • 30% of formal employment
  • Main export sector

GDP - Percentage Contribution by Major Sectors

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Percentage (%)

Agriculture Industry/manufacturing Services

Sector Number

  • f

farmers Million hectares % of total Large-scale commercial 5600 15.5 39.1 Small-scale commercial 8000 1.4 3.5 Communal 1,100, 000 16.4 41.4 National parks and urban

  • 6.0

15.2 State land

  • 0.3

0.8 Total

  • 39.6

100

But dual… Especially in agriculture/land ownership 80% of production, 95% of export earnings

  • I. Zimbabwe – From bread basket to aid dependency

7'26

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SLIDE 5

GDP of Zimbabwe

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

GDP in millions US$ Agriculture Industry/manufacturing Services TOTAL GDP

Between 2000 and 2008,

  • GDP: - 71% of GDP (to 3.784 million

US$)

  • Inflation and devaluation: +1 million %

per year Prolonged economic crisis: Unemployment: from 30% to 80% Massive out migration – brain drain

  • I. Zimbabwe – From bread basket to aid dependency
  • 15
  • 10
  • 5

5 10 15

Year on Year Growth (%)

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 *2006 *2008 *2010

Year Droughts Land reform

From a (formerly) transitional economy to a failed state (4th on Failed States Index Scores, 2010).

9'02

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SLIDE 6

Regarding agriculture -Deteriorated state of (commercial) agriculture:

  • Nationalisation of land – reinforcement of boards/State regulation
  • Zimbabwe has moved from being a food surplus (and in some years

an exporting nation) to a food deficit and importing country (1/3 population depending on food aid) Between 2000 and 2008,

  • Agriculture GDP: -116%
  • Contribution of agricultural sector to GDP: 20.4% => 12,8%
  • 400 000 jobs and represented the country’s main source of export

revenues and foreign exchange

  • collapse agricultural (input – output) markets, credit
  • I. Zimbabwe – From bread basket to aid dependency

11'23

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SLIDE 7

0.0 500.0 1000.0 1500.0 2000.0 2500.0 3000.0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008* 2009* 2010* Year Production ('000 tons) & Area ('000Ha) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 Yield (tons/ha) Production ('000tons) Area ('000Ha) Yield (tons/ha)

maize

0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0 350.0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year Production ('000 tons) & Area ('000 Ha) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 Yield (tons/ha) Production('000 tons) Area('000 ha) Yield(tons/ha)

Cereals

0.00 50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00 250.00 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year Production ('000 tons) & Area ('000 ha) 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 Yield (tons/ha) Areas ('000 Ha) Production ('000 tons) Yield(tons/Ha)

Tobacco

0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0 350.0 400.0 450.0 500.0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year Production ('000 tons) & Area ('000Ha) 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 Yield (tons/ha) Area ('000 Ha) Production ('000 tons) Yield (tons/Ha)

Cotton

  • I. Zimbabwe – From bread basket to aid dependency

12'15

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SLIDE 8

Farm Class Land Tenure Farms/Households Area Numbers % of Total Hectares (mil) % of Total Farm Size(ha) Smallholder Communal 1,100,000 16.400 15 Old Resettlement 72,000 3.700 51 A1 141,656 5.7 40 Sub-total 1,313,656 98 25.8 75.6 20 Small to Medium Scale Commercial Old SSCF 8,000 1.400 175 Small A2 14,072 1.000 71 Sub-total 22,072 1.6 2.400 7 109 Large-scale Commercial Medium-LargeA2 1,500 0.900 600 Black LSCF 1,440 0.900 625 White LSCF 1,377 1.200 871 Sub-total 4,317 0.3 3.000 9.0 695 Corporate Estates Company 657 1.000 1,522 Church 64 0.041 641 Parastatal 153 0.600 3,922 Sub-total 874 0.1 1.641 4.8 1,878 Transitional Unallocated 1.300 3.8 Total 1,340,919 34,141 100

  • II. Revisiting the impacts of Zimbabwe’s land reform

(2008-2011) The development of a new sector (on nationalized land)

12'48

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SLIDE 9
  • 1. The (necessary) revival of smallholder farming

The collapse of commercial farming Replaced by an heterogeneous smallholder sector

  • 1.1 million communal farmers (and 72,000 old resettlement area

farmers),

  • 141,000 A1 farmers
  • Total: 1.3 million farmers occupying close to 26 million hectares

(75% of the land) Covering 50% of agricultural needs

  • II. Revisiting the impacts of Zimbabwe’s land reform

(2008-2011)

13'58

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SLIDE 10

0.0 500.0 1000.0 1500.0 2000.0 2500.0 3000.0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008* 2009* 2010* Year Production ('000 tons) & Area ('000Ha) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 Yield (tons/ha) Production ('000tons) Area ('000Ha) Yield (tons/ha)

maize

0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0 350.0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year Production ('000 tons) & Area ('000 Ha) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 Yield (tons/ha) Production('000 tons) Area('000 ha) Yield(tons/ha)

Cereals

0.00 50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00 250.00 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year Production ('000 tons) & Area ('000 ha) 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 Yield (tons/ha) Areas ('000 Ha) Production ('000 tons) Yield(tons/Ha)

Tobacco

0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0 350.0 400.0 450.0 500.0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year Production ('000 tons) & Area ('000Ha) 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 Yield (tons/ha) Area ('000 Ha) Production ('000 tons) Yield (tons/Ha)

Cotton

  • I. Zimbabwe – From bread basket to aid dependency

14'50

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SLIDE 11

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Year Per capita Supply (kg/capita/yr) 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 Poultry Supply (tons) Poultry per capita supply (kg/capita/yr) Per Capita Protein supply (g/capita/day) Poultrysupply quantity (tonnes)

Commerci al Communa l Resettlem ent A1 A2 Total (‘000) (‘000) (‘000) (‘000) (‘000) (‘000) 1993 1,748 2,964 308 5,02 1994 1,67 3,138 332 5,14 1995 1,617 3,07 305 4,992 1996 1,642 3,104 332 5,078 1997 1,625 3,427 323 5,375 1998 1,560.313 3,495 395 5,45 1999 1,68 3,69 468 5,837 2000 1,55 3,793 612 5,955 2001 1,291 4,398 505 6,195 2002 329 4,055 471 169 24 5,048 2003 360. 3,944 548. 169. 93. 5,116 2004 377. 3,755 535 307. 52 5,027 2005 3604 52` 324. 319 4,768

  • II. Revisiting the impacts of Zimbabwe’s land reform

(2008-2011) Poultry

15'35

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SLIDE 12

Year Total cereal require d in 000 t Food imports in 000 t % Self- sufficienc y Aid as %

  • f import

Total Import s Commerc ial Imports As Food Aid 2001/2 1,940 448 434 14 77 3.13 2002/3 1,940 1,216 855 361 37 29.69 2003/4 1,940 830 433 397 57 47.83 2004/5 1,940 835 686 149 57 17.84 2005/6 1,940 848 755 93 56 10.97 2006/7 1,928 441 342 99 77 22.45 2007/8 1,928 789 502 287 59 36.38 2008/9 1,875 986 728 258 47 26.17 2009/10* 1,738 680 500 180 61 26.47 Year Number of Food Insecure people % Food Insecure People 2001/2 6,074,000 55.2 2002/3 4,400,000 40.0 2003/4 5,423,000 49.3 2004/5 2,300,000 20.9 2005/6 1,500,000 13.6 2006/7 1,400,000 12.7 2007/8 4,100,000 37.3 2008/9 1,571,799 14.3 2009/10* 2,300,000 20.9

  • II. Revisiting the impacts of Zimbabwe’s land reform

(2008-2011) Food security actually increased But, little LT perspectives

  • No tenure security
  • No capital
  • No markets

16'17

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SLIDE 13

Farm Class Land Tenure Farms/Households Area Numbers % of Total Hectares (mil) % of Total Farm Size(ha) Smallholder Communal 1,100,000 16.400 15 Old Resettlement 72,000 3.700 51 A1 141,656 5.7 40 Sub-total 1,313,656 98 25.8 75.6 20 Small to Medium Scale Commercial Old SSCF 8,000 1.400 175 Small A2 14,072 1.000 71 Sub-total 22,072 1.6 2.400 7 109 Large-scale Commercial Medium-LargeA2 1,500 0.900 600 Black LSCF 1,440 0.900 625 White LSCF 1,377 1.200 871 Sub-total 4,317 0.3 3.000 9.0 695 Corporate Estates Company 657 1.000 1,522 Church 64 0.041 641 Parastatal 153 0.600 3,922 Sub-total 874 0.1 1.641 4.8 1,878 Transitional Unallocated 1.300 3.8 Total 1,340,919 34,141 100

  • II. Revisiting the impacts of Zimbabwe’s land reform

(2008-2011)

  • 2. The mushrooming of corporate farming

18'11

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SLIDE 14
  • III. Conclusion - The resilience of small-scale family

farming and the polarization of the agricultural sector In a context of ‘anti’-globalisation … Increased diversity of farming systems

  • Smallholder farming
  • Corporate farming

Only Mugabe’s political game to be blamed? What alternative did he have? Increased polarisation (from dual to polarized) Strongly resilience of smallholder farming BUT

  • with few perspectives
  • Continued marginalization of smallholder farming

19'47

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SLIDE 15
  • III. Conclusion - Smallholder farming, a political

sector The sector/the focus on it is being politicized

  • Political will?

New: Acceptance of the necessity of the smallholder sector

  • Changing (perception of) role = social

(reservoir for the surplus of labour that cannot be absorbed by the urban economy) Large-scale/corporate farming seen as engine of economic growth and development

23'04

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SLIDE 16
  • III. Conclusion - The absence of agricultural policies/views
  • No agricultural policies since the

FTLRP

  • No reflection on (the role of)

agriculture/policies

  • Project-led
  • No structural reflection
  • Ad hoc
  • Contradiction: Dual institutionnal

channels (State vs donors) Emergency vs power strategies

  • Non-alignment of donors

24'51

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SLIDE 17
  • III. Conclusion - ‘Bye-bye the white – welcome the yellow’

Look East and China

Look East Policy

  • bilateral agreements, mainly with China (trade facilities,

land tenure, tax, protected from indigenization Act) Loans/grants

  • US$700M (while the WB refused a US$50M loan) –

Agricultural machinery/telecommunications/education/… 2nd investor/trade partner in/of Zimbabwe

  • Import manufacturing products (5%), export (10%)
  • Mining (diamonds)
  • Also in agriculture (Twinning programme - negotiations
  • ngoing in Mashonaland east - 25-year lease renewable)
  • Export of 100% cotton/tobacco (contract farming) (Sinotex

signed a US$500Mdeal to finance local production and purchases through a contract growing plan)

27'03