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Vulnerability and risk of impacts of flatfishes to climate change
William W. L. Cheung Nippon Foundation-UBC Nereus Program, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, UBC
Vulnerability and risk of impacts of flatfishes to climate change - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Vulnerability and risk of impacts of flatfishes to climate change - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Vulnerability and risk of impacts of flatfishes to climate change William W. L. Cheung Nippon Foundation-UBC Nereus Program, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, UBC 2015-2017 the warmest years on record The future ocean What does CO 2
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The future ocean
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Gattuso, Magnan, Billé, Cheung, Howes, Joos, et al. 2015 Science.
What does CO2 emission do to the oceans?
Temperature
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Flatfishes and their fisheries under climate change
Physical Biological Social/Economics
From: Sumaila, Cheung, Lam, Pauly, Herrick (2011) Nature Climate Change
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Temperature and oxygen constraining fish production
- Theory predicts that aquatic ectotherms distribute
themselves to maximize their growth performance.
From: Pörtner & Farrell (2008) Science
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Predicted temperature preference of exploited flatfishes (Pleuronectiformes) based on their biogeography
Polar Tropical
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Predicted temperature preference of exploited flatfishes (Pleuronectiformes) based on their biogeography
Polar Tropical
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Protected Area Latitude Country A Country B Original distribution Depth Climate-shifted distribution
Local extinction
Invasion
Warming Hypoxia Decrease in primary production
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Global catches of flatfishes (Pleuronectiformes)
Data source: Sea Around Us
Future catches? Which species will be more at risk?
Subsistence
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This talk
1. Vulnerabilities and risk of impacts to climate change; 2. Projections of changing flatfish distribution and potential fisheries production; 3. Adapting to climate effects on flatfishes.
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This talk
1. Vulnerabilities and risk of impacts to climate change; 2. Projections of changing flatfish distribution and potential fisheries production; 3. Adapting to climate effects on flatfishes.
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Framework of assessing vulnerability and risk of impacts
Adapted from Jones and Cheung 2017. Glob. Chang. Biol.
Risk of climate impacts Hazards: T, O2, pH Exposure: Species’ biogeography Sensitivity: Linf , TP, TG Vulnerability Adaptive capacity: Fec, LB, DR, HA
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Exposure to hazard (ExV)
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- Exposure = grid cells that the species is predicted to occur;
- Hazard = changes in ocean conditions relative to their past
variability: temperature, oxygen, pH;
- Pelagic – surface variables; Demersal – bottom variables;
- Use multiple ESM outputs to include uncertainties;
- Index is based on the mean change relative to variability.
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Fuzzy logic expert system
High (0.75) Moderate (0.25)
- For each 0.5o x 0.5o spatial grid cell of the world oceans:
Heuristic rules
Knowledge accumulation
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Exposure to hazard Index
- Example: Greenland Halibut– RCP 8.5
Exposure
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Sensitivity
- Breath of temperature tolerance (TT) – overlaying species
distribution of temperature data (Cheung et al. 2013);
- Maximum body length (ML) – FishBase and Sealifebase;
- Taxonomic group (TG) – sensitivity to ocean acidification.
Example: Greenland halibut TG = 12 oC: moderate (0.5) and high (0.5) ML = 80 cm: large (1.0) TG = fishes Sensitivity = low (0.5), moderate (0.5), very high (1)
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Adaptive capacity
- Latitudinal range (LR) – occurrence records;
- Depth range (DR) – FishBase and SeaLifeBase;
- Fecundity (FE)– FishBase and SeaLifeBase;
- Habitat restriction – Association to specific habitats (Cheung
et al. 2008) Example: Greenland halibut LR = 46 o: medium (0.13) and large (0.87) DR = 2000 m: very large (1.0) FE = ~45000 eggs: large (0.61), very large (0.39) Adaptive capacity = high (0.87), very high (1.00)
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Vulnerability index = 39
Low (0.58), moderate (0.25), high (0.72)
Risk of impact = 55
- Example: Greenland halibut
Risk of impact
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VVUl
Exploited flatfishes (Species number = 47) Moderate to high vulnerability and risk of impacts
Vulnerability Exposure to hazards Risk of impacts RCP 2.6 RCP 8.5 RCP 2.6 RCP 8.5
Species with highest estimated risk: Spottail spiny turbot (Psettodes belcheri) West coast sole (Austroglossus microlepis) Spiny turbot (Pettodes bennettii)
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Vulnerability and risk of impact of 1,074 exploited fishes and invertebrates globally
Risk of impact
Vulnerability Risk of impact
Jones and Cheung 2017. Glob. Chang. Biol.
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Risk of impacts under RCP 8.5 by Exclusive Economic Zones
- Exploited flatfishes (N = 47)
Exposure
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This talk
1. Vulnerabilities and risk of impacts to climate change; 2. Projections of changing flatfish distribution and potential fisheries production; 3. Adapting to climate effects on flatfishes.
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Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model
Source: Cheung et al. (2008, 2011); Fernandes et al. (2013)
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Projected range shifts (centroid shifts)
Case study: Northwest Atlantic
Witch flounder
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Projected range shifts (centroid shifts)
Case study: Northwest Atlantic
Witch flounder Greenland halibut
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Projected range shifts (centroid shifts)
Case study: Northwest Atlantic
Witch flounder Greenland halibut Yellowtail flounder
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Projected range shifts (centroid shifts)
Case study: Northwest Atlantic
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Projected range shifts in North Pacific and Atlantic Oceans RCP 8.5
Case study: Northeast Atlantic
Median shift = 16 km decade-1
Based on: Jones and Cheung (2015) ICES J M Sci
- Local temperature velocity
- Density-dependent effects
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Scaling between global atmospheric warming and loss of maximum catch potential of flatfishes (N = 47 spp)
Paris Agreement Business as usual Based on: Cheung, Reygondeau, Frölicher (2016) Science
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Regional differences in projected in changes in maximum potential catches RCP 8.5
Change in catch potential (%)
Based on: Lam, Cheung et al. (2016) Scientific Report
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Implications for coastal communities
Weatherdon, Ota, Close, Cheung (2016) PLoS One
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ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE
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Protect and restore coastal vegetation Eliminate overfishing Mitigate pollution
Potential solutions
LOCAL
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Climate impacts on effectiveness of MPA
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”Climate-proofing” MPA
Species MPA Species MPA Centroid shift (CS) MPA size (s)
Now Future
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”Climate-proofing” MPA
Species MPA Species MPA Centroid shift (CS) MPA size (s)
For MPA to be climate-proof: s > CS
Now Future
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Climate-proofing global MPAs
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Climate-proofing global MPAs
Percentile of range shifts by 2050: 25th 50th 75th
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Climate-proofing global MPAs
Percentile of range shifts by 2050: 25th 50th 75th
North Sea Plaice Box
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Mariculture of flatfishes
Mariculuture
Data source: Sea Around Us
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Mariculture suitable environment
Data source: Oyinlola, Cheung, et al. (in review) Hippoglossus hippoglossus Paralichthys olivaceus Solea solea Solea sengalensis
Unsuitable Suitable
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Potential mariculture area and countries currently producing flatfishes
Data source: Oyinlola, Cheung, et al. (in review)
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Potential mariculture area and countries currently producing flatfishes
Data source: Oyinlola, Cheung, et al. (in review)
- Other constraints on sustainability: ecological, social, economic,
technological?
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Summary
- Exploited flatfishes have moderate to high risk of
impacts under climate change;
- Distribution shifts across their ranges under
climate change;
- Reduction in maximum catch potential by up to
20% under business-as-usual global warming;
- A portfolio of solutions (mitigation and
adaptation) are needed to manage risk of climate change on flatfishes and their fisheries.
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Acknowledgement
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Challenges to transboundary fisheries management
Abrantes, Cheung (in prep)
E.g. Pacific halibut (RCP 8.5)
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