Voting and Elections Chapter 8 Who will guard the guardians? The - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Voting and Elections

Chapter 8

• “Who will guard the guardians?”

– The idea of being “qualified” to vote raises problems

• Our answer to this question has changed a lot
• ver time

Restrictions on Franchise

– Colonial times (1620-1780s)

• No women
• Few Catholics, Jews, native Americans, or free Black

people

– i.e., some white, Protestant men could vote

• Not all white, Protestant men could vote.

– Each colony had a property qualification – Why?

• Early Americans wanted to guarantee that

voters were virtuous and independent

– Impact of Calvinism

• That becomes the essence of the Protestant

Ethic

– Worldly success is a sign of personal salvation

• Revolutionary War (1776-1787)

– “No taxation without representation!” – By 1830s, white male suffrage

• Women

Q: If all white men are qualified to vote, why not white women? A: Women’s rights get tangled up in racial issues

• What changed? Politics.

– The dominant party (Republicans) came to believe women voting would help them.

• Prohibition

• African-Americans

– By the 1880s, Black male suffrage in the North – By 1900, the “Jim Crow” (segregation) system was entrenched in the South

• In 1965, Congress passes the Voting Rights Act

– Federal government to supervise elections in the South – Southern states forced to create majority-minority electoral districts

• Young people (18-20 years old)

– 26th Amendment (1971) lowers voting age – Impact?

Given all of these struggles…

• In 2000, a majority of Americans chose NOT to

vote

– Many blamed:

• Lazy young people
• Peace & prosperity
• Media effects

• BUT:

– Voter turnout was up to 60.7% in 2004 – 2008 turnout was expected to be very, very high

• Obama/Palin effects?

• Reality:

– 2008 turnout rate about 62% – African-American turnout very high…

• …in the South

– 18-29 year old turnout ~ 51%

• Moral:

– A lot of what people “know” about elections is wrong! – Many ask, “Why do so many people stay home on election day?”

• The better question to ask is:

– “Why does anybody bother to vote in the first place?”

• Over 400 people are hit by lightning in the US

every year

This guy has been hit by lightning 3 times!

• In 2008, 131,257,328 votes were cast for

President

– My vote was 1 out of the total. So was yours.

• One vote “weighs”

– 1 / 131,257,328 = – 0.000000007618 % of the total – 7 ten-millionths of 1%!

• In 2008, SC cast 1,920,969 votes for Pres.

– My 1 made up 0.00000052057% of the total

• 5 millionths of 1%

• The odds of 1 vote deciding an election are

very, very, very small.

– People who say, “My vote doesn’t count” have a bit of a point

• There’s also a flipside:

– For millions of people, just going out to vote can be a challenge

• This is all to say something important:

– Millions of people see good reasons not to vote

• Here’s the point:

– Going out to vote produces benefits – We can group those benefits into 2 categories:

Instrumental Benefit

• A vote is a means to an end

– It’s support for a candidate, a party, an idea

• BUT:

– A vote is one out of millions

• So, each vote has very little chance of affecting the

election

• Therefore, the instrumental benefit of voting is very

small!

Expressive Benefits

• Yet, millions of people vote

– Are they irrational? No. – Many feel that it is important to vote

• “Civic Duty”
• “Responsibility”
• “Want to have my say”

• Since the instrumental benefit of voting is

always low:

– Most voters are motivated by expressive benefits

• But, not everyone responds to those

psychological benefits

• Civics classes and campaigns like VoD try to

get young people to develop expressive benefits of voting.

– Do they work? – Not much evidence they do, and they are expensive!

Costs of Voting

• The benefits of voting are, at best, mostly

psychological

• The costs of voting are felt much more directly
• 2 types of cost:

Opportunity Cost

• Def: Time spent on one thing when you’d

rather do something else

– The time spent actually going out to cast a ballot

• Travel time, standing in line, lost income, etc.

Information Cost

• Def: Time spent figuring out who to vote for

and why

• An individual will vote when:

P(Bv) – Cv ≥ 0

WTF?

Individual Factors Affecting Turnout

• 4 most relevant:

1. Age 2. Education 3. Region of the country 4. Race

Age

• Single best predictor of individual turnout

– Around age 30, likelihood of voting increases

• Until around age 80

– Costs & benefits

Education

• Statistical effects of 1 year+ of college:

– Live about 8 years longer than high school dropouts – Earn about $600,000 more over the course of

• ne’s life

– 20% more likely to vote

• Why?

– Increasing education builds efficacy

• Def: A belief that one’s choices / opinions “matter”

• In terms of politics, efficacy takes 2 forms:

– “Internal efficacy”

• Increased ability to make sense of political info

– “External efficacy”

• Belief that one’s choices have an impact

Southerners

• Residents of former Confederate states
• Residents of states bordering the South

Non-white

• African-Americans & Latinos

– Each about 6% less likely to vote than Caucasians & Asian-Americans

Problem

• All of these factors add up:
• Older, white, educated, northerner is almost

75% more likely to vote than a young, low- education, non-white Southerner

• Institutional Factors also affect turnout

– The way we do elections give people reasons not to vote

• Voter registration

– US is the only democracy that makes citizens register to vote – Most states require registration 30+ days before election

Solutions

• “Motor-Voter” Act (1993)

– Can register to vote anywhere a driver’s license can be obtained

• Same-day registration

– 9 states let people register on election day

• 10-12% increase in turnout

• “Election Day” is itself a problem

– Workday – Limited hours – Limited polling places – Lots of different elections

• Federal, state, county, city, local, blah blah blah

• Solutions:
• 1. Multiple days to vote
• 2. Election Day holiday
• 3. Mail-in or Internet voting
• 4. Compulsory Voting

The Question

• All these factors produce voters who:

– Are disproportionately older, white, and educated

• But is this something we should be concerned

about?

Low Turnout is Bad – 3 Arguments

• 1. Voters don’t represent the nation as a whole.

• 2. Low turnout is caused by “phony” politics.

• 3. Nonvoters are more isolated, more selfish,

more ignorant of the world around them.

Low Turnout, No Problem

• 1. Low turnout means voter satisfaction.

• 2. Increasing turnout means mobilizing the less

educated & less interested.

• 3. Elections are a farce, anyway. Big money

always wins.