Voting and Elections Chapter 8
• “Who will guard the guardians?” – The idea of being “qualified” to vote raises problems • Our answer to this question has changed a lot over time
Restrictions on Franchise – Colonial times (1620-1780s) • No women • Few Catholics, Jews, native Americans, or free Black people – i.e., some white, Protestant men could vote
• Not all white, Protestant men could vote. – Each colony had a property qualification – Why?
• Early Americans wanted to guarantee that voters were virtuous and independent – Impact of Calvinism
• That becomes the essence of the Protestant Ethic – Worldly success is a sign of personal salvation
• Revolutionary War (1776-1787) – “No taxation without representation!” – By 1830s, white male suffrage
• Women Q: If all white men are qualified to vote, why not white women? A: Women’s rights get tangled up in racial issues
• What changed? Politics. – The dominant party (Republicans) came to believe women voting would help them. - Prohibition
• African-Americans – By the 1880s, Black male suffrage in the North – By 1900, the “Jim Crow” (segregation) system was entrenched in the South
• In 1965, Congress passes the Voting Rights Act – Federal government to supervise elections in the South – Southern states forced to create majority-minority electoral districts
• Young people (18-20 years old) – 26 th Amendment (1971) lowers voting age – Impact?
Given all of these struggles…
• In 2000, a majority of Americans chose NOT to vote – Many blamed: • Lazy young people • Peace & prosperity • Media effects
• BUT: – Voter turnout was up to 60.7% in 2004 – 2008 turnout was expected to be very, very high • Obama/Palin effects?
• Reality: – 2008 turnout rate about 62% – African- American turnout very high… • …in the South – 18-29 year old turnout ~ 51%
• Moral: – A lot of what people “know” about elections is wrong! – Many ask, “Why do so many people stay home on election day?”
• The better question to ask is: – “Why does anybody bother to vote in the first place?”
• Over 400 people are hit by lightning in the US every year
This guy has been hit by lightning 3 times!
• In 2008, 131,257,328 votes were cast for President – My vote was 1 out of the total. So was yours. • One vote “weighs” – 1 / 131,257,328 = – 0.000000007618 % of the total – 7 ten-millionths of 1%!
• In 2008, SC cast 1,920,969 votes for Pres. – My 1 made up 0.00000052057% of the total • 5 millionths of 1%
• The odds of 1 vote deciding an election are very, very, very small. – People who say, “My vote doesn’t count” have a bit of a point
• There’s also a flipside: – For millions of people, just going out to vote can be a challenge
• This is all to say something important: – Millions of people see good reasons not to vote
• Here’s the point: – Going out to vote produces benefits – We can group those benefits into 2 categories:
Instrumental Benefit • A vote is a means to an end – It’s support for a candidate, a party, an idea
• BUT: – A vote is one out of millions • So, each vote has very little chance of affecting the election • Therefore, the instrumental benefit of voting is very small!
Expressive Benefits • Yet, millions of people vote – Are they irrational ? No. – Many feel that it is important to vote • “Civic Duty” • “Responsibility” • “Want to have my say”
• Since the instrumental benefit of voting is always low: – Most voters are motivated by expressive benefits • But, not everyone responds to those psychological benefits
• Civics classes and campaigns like VoD try to get young people to develop expressive benefits of voting. – Do they work? – Not much evidence they do, and they are expensive!
Costs of Voting • The benefits of voting are, at best, mostly psychological • The costs of voting are felt much more directly • 2 types of cost:
Opportunity Cost • Def: Time spent on one thing when you’d rather do something else – The time spent actually going out to cast a ballot • Travel time, standing in line, lost income, etc.
Information Cost • Def: Time spent figuring out who to vote for and why
• An individual will vote when: P(B v ) – C v ≥ 0 WTF?
Individual Factors Affecting Turnout • 4 most relevant: 1. Age 2. Education 3. Region of the country 4. Race
Age • Single best predictor of individual turnout – Around age 30, likelihood of voting increases • Until around age 80 – Costs & benefits
Education • Statistical effects of 1 year+ of college: – Live about 8 years longer than high school dropouts – Earn about $600,000 more over the course of one’s life – 20% more likely to vote
• Why? – Increasing education builds efficacy • Def: A belief that one’s choices / opinions “matter”
• In terms of politics, efficacy takes 2 forms: – “ Internal efficacy ” • Increased ability to make sense of political info – “ External efficacy ” • Belief that one’s choices have an impact
Southerners • Residents of former Confederate states • Residents of states bordering the South
Non-white • African-Americans & Latinos – Each about 6% less likely to vote than Caucasians & Asian-Americans
Problem • All of these factors add up: • Older, white, educated, northerner is almost 75% more likely to vote than a young, low- education, non-white Southerner
• Institutional Factors also affect turnout – The way we do elections give people reasons not to vote
• Voter registration – US is the only democracy that makes citizens register to vote – Most states require registration 30+ days before election
Solutions • “Motor - Voter” Act (1993) – Can register to vote anywhere a driver’s license can be obtained • Same-day registration – 9 states let people register on election day • 10-12% increase in turnout
• “Election Day” is itself a problem – Workday – Limited hours – Limited polling places – Lots of different elections • Federal, state, county, city, local, blah blah blah
• Solutions: 1. Multiple days to vote 2. Election Day holiday 3. Mail-in or Internet voting 4. Compulsory Voting
The Question • All these factors produce voters who: – Are disproportionately older, white, and educated • But is this something we should be concerned about?
Low Turnout is Bad – 3 Arguments 1. Voters don’t represent the nation as a whole.
2. Low turnout is caused by “phony” politics.
3. Nonvoters are more isolated, more selfish, more ignorant of the world around them.
Low Turnout, No Problem 1. Low turnout means voter satisfaction.
2. Increasing turnout means mobilizing the less educated & less interested.
3. Elections are a farce, anyway. Big money always wins.
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