Voter Registration Analysis IFES Findings presentation November 2019
Content Executive Summary Methodology Analysis – Overview voter registration – Time trends: Intention to vote – Drivers – Voter segmentation Annex 2
Executive Summary • 2019 registration rates compared to the voting age population have increased significantly since 2014 Registration rates • Large variation in registration rates among districts and regions; registration rates are Voter registration increased generally highest in the South • Male and younger voters’ registration rates compared to voter age population are higher • Success in mostly getting female and middle-aged voter (40-49) to register since 2014 Main drivers of registration are • Perceptions of HNEC’s performance of being professional, transparent, honest and HNEC’s perceived competent are the most influential drivers of voter registration performance • Overall, intentions to vote in an upcoming constitutional referendum are quite high across Also the intention Libya to vote increased • Young women are the most politically disempowered socio-economic segment in Libya, Intention to vote showing lower intention to vote in upcoming elections than the rest of the population • Awareness of HNEC and the perception that they organize credible elections have a Voting intention is significant influence on the intention to vote in a future public referendum driven by • Higher educated voters are also more likely to vote perceptions of • Perceived importance of elections lead to a higher willingness to vote in a future HNEC referendum 3
Content Executive Summary Methodology Analysis – Overview voter registration – Time trends: Intention to vote – Drivers – Voter segmentation Annex 4
Voter registration data and survey data are inputs for voter analysis Voter registration data across Libya and Census Survey Data Across Libya Al Jfara An Nuqat al Khams Al Jabal al Akhdar TRIPOLI Al Marj Az Zawiyah Al Murgub Darnah Misratah Tobruk Benghazi Gharyan Nalut Nalut Al Jabal al Gharbi Surt Ajdabiya Al Butnan Al Wahat Houn Wadi Al Shatii Adiri Al Jufrah Sabha Sabha Awbari Ghat Wadi Al Hayaa Murzuq Al Kufrah Ghat Murzuq Al Jawf • IFES survey conducted April 17-May 22, 2018 and in • Analysis of HNEC database of voters registered 2014 2017 with in total 3,973 observations is merged into and 2019 one single dataset • Libya National Population Survey 2012* • NDI survey conducted in 2013 • USAID survey conducted in 2015** * National household survey conducted in 2012, http://www.bsc.ly/#b19 **Mid-term Evaluation of Democracy, Human Rights and Governance (DRG) Programming in Libya and Results from a National and Urban DRG Survey, 5 USAID/Libya, January 2016.
Content Executive Summary Methodology Analysis – Overview voter registration – Time trends: Intention to vote – Drivers – Voter segmentation Annex 6
Voter registration and intention to vote are analyzed with descriptive and in-depth analysis Types Description Source Method • Cross analysis on gender, geography, Descriptive Describing the current state of voter other relevant socio-demo variables Voter database Analysis registration and identifying gaps • Analysis on registration rates, intention to vote, projected turnout Voter database, Identifying correlations between • Merge two IFES surveys into single Correlation election data, voter registration and survey dataset to compare survey data with analysis census data, IFES indicators registration data surveys Voter database, Identifying trends and longitudinal Time series • Time development of registration election data, patterns in voter registration and analysis rates in 2014 and 2019 census data, IFES intention of voting and USAID survey Understanding gaps by assessing Voter database, Driver factors (socio-demographic, values, election data, • Linear regression analysis Analysis HNEC activities, etc.) influencing who census data, IFES • Logistical regression analysis registers, who intents to vote surveys Profiling those that have registered, Voter not registered, not intending to vote, IFES surveys • Cluster analysis segmenting etc. to inform specific targeting of mobilization efforts 7
Content Executive Summary Methodology Analysis – Overview voter registration – Time trends: Intention to vote – Drivers – Voter segmentation Annex 8
Recent registration rates show that the number of registered voters has increased by 61% since HoR election in 2014 pre-voter 2019 3.599.821 registration update +61% +15% 2.434.654 2.376.962 +58% 2.074.937 1.833.051 1.509.291 1.157.938 Voting age population Intention to vote* Intention to vote* Registered voters (presidential / parliamentary election) (constitutional referendum) Libya National Population Survey data, NDI 2013; Survey data, USAID 2015; HNEC data, 2014 and 2019 Survey, 2012 IFES 2017 IFES 2017/2018 *Intention to vote is based on the following questions: NDI Survey 2013 : ‘If parliamentary elections are to be held again tomorrow, would you vote?’ (‘yes’) • IFES Survey 2017 ‘If elections for a new president were to be held soon, how likely are you to vote in these elections?’ (‘very likely’, ‘somewhat likely’) • USAID Survey 2015 : If any of these elections were held tomorrow, would you go and vote? (Constitutional Referendum) • IFES Survey 2017/2018 : ‘If such referendum was to be held soon, how likely would you be to participate in it’; ‘If the constitutional proposal is put to a public • referendum for endorsement, how likely would you be to participate in it?’ 9
Based on current registration rates, projected turnout would increase by 61% compared to turnout in HoR election Pre-voter registration update 2019 +70% 3.599.821 3.599.821 2.434.654 2.376.962 2.074.937 1.509.291 1.039.956 611.303 President/ President/ Referendum Referendum Parliament Parliament Voting age Registered Intention Intention Voting age Registered Intention Intention Projected Turnout population voters to vote* to vote* population voters to vote* to vote* turnout** *Intention to vote is based on the following questions: • NDI Survey 2013 : ‘If parliamentary elections are to be held again tomorrow, would you vote?’ (‘yes’) • IFES Survey 2017 ‘If elections for a new president were to be held soon, how likely are you to vote in these elections?’ (‘very likely’, ‘somewhat likely’) • USAID Survey 2015 : If any of these elections were held tomorrow, would you go and vote? (Constitutional Referendum) • IFES Survey 2017/2018 : ‘If such referendum was to be held soon, how likely would you be to participate in it’; ‘If the constitutional proposal is put to a public referendum for endorsement, how likely would you be to participate in it?’ **Projected turnout is based on likelihood of voting among registered voters (IFES 2018) multiplied by currently registered voters (HNEC data) 10 10
Registration increased significantly since 2014; mostly among women and 40-49 year olds of voting age population Registration rates by voting age population and gender in 2014 and 2019 Male 3.599.821 +71% Female Total 1.509.291 +55% +61,3% 2.434.654 76% 1.842.066 59% Male 905.483 49% +54,7% 1.400.877 34% 1.757.755 Voting age population Female 603.808 Registered voters 2014 +71,2% 1.033.777 Registration rate (VAP) Registration rate (VAP) Registered voters 2019 in 2014 in 2019 Registration rates by age groups in 2014 and 2019 +27% +52% Registration rate (VAP) 2014 +66% 100% 100% Registration rate (VAP) 2019 +55% 92% 78% +52% 68% 66% 56% 49% 44% 33% 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60+ Source: HNEC Voter Registration Data 2014/2019 and Libya National Population Survey 2012 (voting age population) 11 11
Recent registration rates of voting age population have increased drastically in Sirte and Al Mergheb compared to 2014 Registration rates in 2014 and 2019 by region West +111% +127% 2014 registration rate 97% 86% 84% 2019 registration rate 79% 67% 59% 56% 49% 40% 40% 35% 35% 27% 18% 15% 7% Sirte Al Gabal Nalut Misrata Al Mergheb Tripoli Zawyia Jafara Al Gharbi East South +97% +50% +104% 100% 90% 94% 80% 75% 82% 71% 74% 64% 65% 66% 60% 57% 56% 51% 54% 54% 54% 50% 49% 45% 44% 38% 42% 36% 32% Tobruk Derna Jebel Al Marj Benghazi Al Wahat Al Kufra Ajdabiya Jufra Sabha Wadi Shati Wadi Al Ghat Akhdar Haya Registration rates as percentage of voting age population. Source: HNEC Voter Registration Data 2014/2019 and Libya National Population Survey 2012. 12 12 Murzuq is excluded due to data validity of voting age population.
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