Visit Dutch delegation UKCIP, Oxford 14th september 2009 Climate adaptation in NL and UK Climate adaptation policy, watermanagement, communication and science in the Netherlands 9/30/2009 EU Espace: Adapting to climate 1 change: a spatial challenge!, The Hague, 14th May 2008
Dutch delegation • Ministry of transportation and water management (V&W, Rijkswaterstaat) • Ministry of housing, spatial planning and environment (VROM) • KNMI (Met. Office) • Province of Groningen • Wageningen university and research centre (WUR) • Deltares 9/30/2009 EU Espace: Adapting to climate 2 change: a spatial challenge!, The Hague, 14th May 2008
Content • Adaptation challenges • Current policy • Communication 9/30/2009 EU Espace: Adapting to climate 3 change: a spatial challenge!, The Hague, 14th May 2008
Climate change: what is the challenge? Climate scenarios for The Netherlands (KNMI) Based on IPPC, specified for the Netherlands 9/30/2009 EU Espace: Adapting to climate 4 change: a spatial challenge!, The Hague, 14th May 2008
Likely consequences for watermanagement • Sea level rise • Higher river discharges in winter and much lower discharges in summer • Higher water temperatures • Increase of summer droughts • Increase of precipitation, peak showers in summer • Increase of salination of surface water 9/30/2009 EU Espace: Adapting to climate 5 change: a spatial challenge!, The Hague, 14th May 2008
Status of the climate projections � Reasonable agreement on the trends � Much less agreement on the speed and magnitude. � Certainly too little agreement to design water management systems according to classical approaches (WMO, 1987) • Continuous effort to improve the projections is needed for the sake of science. HOWEVER the potential that point 3 will be solved in the next 5- 10 years is VERY LOW 9/30/2009 EU Espace: Adapting to climate 6 change: a spatial challenge!, The Hague, 14th May 2008
Quality and Value of a climate change projection (free after Micha Werner) Climate change scientist Projection Quality Can I provide a more accurate projection Hydrologist Get data Improve models Improve downscaling Discharge Lobith Understand natural processess 18000 Provide climate Run models 16000 14000 projections discharge [m3/s] 12000 10000 8000 6000 Change my strategy? 4000 2000 Risk of too few / too 0 21-1 23-1 25-1 27-1 29-1 31-1 2-2 4-2 much measures date Inform people Water manager Projection Value Should I make another decision 9/30/2009 EU Espace: Adapting to climate 7 change: a spatial challenge!, The Hague, 14th May 2008
Adaptation tipping points Tipping points 9/30/2009 EU Espace: Adapting to climate 8 change: a spatial challenge!, The Deltares visit Oxford, 14th september 2009 Hague, 14th May 2008
Adaptation tipping points (ATP) How vulnerable are we for climate change and sea level rise and what adaptation measures should we take ? classical approach tipping point approach What if climate changes How much climate change according to scenario x? can we cope with? Pressures: Impact: Climate change & sea level rise objectives for sectors State: State: relevant boundary conditions: water water quantity & water quality quantity & water quality Impact: Pressures: safety, nature, agriculture etc. corrensponding climate & sea level Are objectives achieved? Durability of current measures: Under which climate conditions are Yes No objectives not achieved anymore? Response: Response: When does this occur according no measures needed adaptation measures to scenario a,b,c,d? Response: adaptation measures in year z 9/30/2009 EU Espace: Adapting to climate 9 change: a spatial challenge!, The Hague, 14th May 2008
Type of conclusions: example Summary of list for impacts in coastal areas (years based on most extreme scenario’s) • Current strategy aimed at nature conservation is not sustainable under the climate changes ( Now already an issue) • Fresh water supply will be severely hindered through salt water intrusion through the rivers (becomes an issue not before 2040 ) • Drainage under gravity from Lake IJssel possible up to SLR 35 cm (becomes an issue not before 2040 ) • Spatial planning in urban areas along tidal rivers (becomes an issue not before 2050 ) • Estimated speed of sea level rise according to higher SLR-scenario’s is very close or exceeds natural adaptive capacity of the Wadden sea and SW-Delta (sedimentation rates / erosion) Drowning of plates (with rise > 3 mm/year) (issue not before 2050 ). • Storm surge barrier (Maeslantkering) designed for SLR up to 50cm (becomes an issue not before 2060 ) • Accessibility Rotterdam Harbour hindered (Storm surge barrier needs to close more than once a year at SLR 75cm (becomes an issue not before 2080 )) Coastal flood defence through sand supply (becomes an issue not before 2100 / or • if sand cannot anymore be collected from the North Sea) • Salt water upward seepage through the groundwater ( minor effect ) 9/30/2009 EU Espace: Adapting to climate 10 • No limitations to technical adaptation measures , but increasingly expensive change: a spatial challenge!, The and/or need more space Hague, 14th May 2008
ATP’s in watermanagement • Nature conservation • Fresh water supply hampered by salt intrusion in West NL • Drainage of the IJssel lake using gravity • Design criteria of storm surge barrier exceeded 9/30/2009 EU Espace: Adapting to climate 11 change: a spatial challenge!, The Hague, 14th May 2008
SS 30 40 50 60 omerafvoer Rijn+Maas interafvoer Maas interafvoer Rijn IJsselmeer pompen Dijkversterking IJsselmeer beneden rivieren opzetten Gebruik 2 aanpassen Alternatieve SVK+ aanvoer 3 1 IJsselmeer opzetten NWW afsluiten Afsluiten NWW 2 IJsselmeer opzetten 1 ZWV Holland te vaak te zout IJsselmeer 2 IJsselmeer winterpeil niet te handhaven via drainage onder vrij verval pompen 3 ZSS hoger dan SVK ontwerp 4 SVK sluit frequentie >1/jr 5 SVK ontwerp niet geschikt voor sluitfrequentie (> 10x / jaar 9/30/2009 EU Espace: Adapting to climate 12 change: a spatial challenge!, The Op zijn vroegst 1990 2029 2042 2055 2061 p z'n laatst 1990 2110 2120 2130 2140 Hague, 14th May 2008
Key areas 9/30/2009 EU Espace: Adapting to climate 13 change: a spatial challenge!, The Hague, 14th May 2008
Situation ‘Rijnmond’ 9/30/2009 EU Espace: Adapting to climate 14 change: a spatial challenge!, The Hague, 14th May 2008
Climate adaptation policy • Long term tradition in watermanagement • Assessment of long term climate robustness by 2 nd Delta committee (water management national scale) • Climate proofing spatial planning, long term investments (local to national scale) 9/30/2009 EU Espace: Adapting to climate 15 change: a spatial challenge!, The Hague, 14th May 2008
The Netherlands: a long tradition fighting floods Below sea-level: • Approximately 9 mln people and 70% of GDP • 60% of the land • Amsterdam, Rotterdam, and Schiphol Airport Flooding along the Rhine and Meuse rivers 9/30/2009 EU Espace: Adapting to climate 16 change: a spatial challenge!, The Hague, 14th May 2008
The Netherlands: a long tradition fighting floods The 1953 storm surge disaster •1800 casualties, 1800 sq. kms flooded •Trigger for the Deltaplan : •Closure of estuaries •Safety standards on an economic basis •National dike improvement scheme 9/30/2009 EU Espace: Adapting to climate 17 change: a spatial challenge!, The Hague, 14th May 2008
The Netherlands: a long tradition fighting floods High river discharges – Giving space to the river Rhine Pannerdensche Kop 9/30/2009 EU Espace: Adapting to climate 18 change: a spatial challenge!, The Deltares visit Oxford, 14th september 2009 Hague, 14th May 2008
Policy The Flood Protection Act defines : • Safety standards per ‘dike ring’ area (freq. of exceeding of design water level) • Responsibilities of parties involved • A 5-yearly safety assessment of all primary flood defences • Guidelines for safety assessment & design of flood defences 9/30/2009 EU Espace: Adapting to climate 19 change: a spatial challenge!, The Hague, 14th May 2008
Policy National Adaptation Strategy •Societal, governmental and spatial adjustments necessary to make The Netherlands climate proof •Strategy is aimed at • safety • biodiversity • economy • quality of the living environment •Distinction is being made between potential effects that: • may lead to societal disruption (flood risks, diseases) • nuissance (drainage, floods, heat stress, ecosystems 9/30/2009 EU Espace: Adapting to climate 20 change: a spatial challenge!, The Hague, 14th May 2008
Policy 3-way approach (under development): - legal incorporation (existing EIA) - Assessment of national spatial challenges - “Klimaatwijzer” (Guidelinese for climate adaptation) Available tools (a.o) • Regional climate predictions (Climate effect sketchbooks) • Opportunity mapping • Adaptation scan • Expert panels 9/30/2009 EU Espace: Adapting to climate 21 change: a spatial challenge!, The Hague, 14th May 2008
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