Venues for developing Russias statistics of cross-border electronic - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan, November 14-15, 2019

Venues for developing Russia’s statistics of cross-border electronic trade in goods

Presented by L.N. Stolyarova Bank of Russia

External merchandise trade under balance of payments methodology

MAIN CONCEPTS AND DEFINITIONS

2 Transactions that do not involve frontier-crossing

Fish, fish and marine products sold outside Russia’s territory Goods procured by carriers in ports Goods acquired via Internet stores

Cross-border transactions

Other goods Exports/imports of goods based on customs statistics data Other goods

Definition of cross-border e-commerce in external sector statistics

3 IMF’s «Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual» (BPM6):  E-commerce is a method of ordering or delivering products, at least partly, by electronic means, such as through Internet or other computer-mediated networks. «International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Concepts and Definitions 2010»:  The term “goods in electronic commerce” refers to goods that physically move across country borders as the result of transactions executed entirely, or to a significant extent, by electronic means.

MAIN CONCEPTS AND DEFINITIONS

New definition of digital trade

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• New definition of digital trade is provided in Handbook on Measuring Digital Trade presented in the framework of Task

Force on International Trade Statistics (TFITS), which includes representatives from the OECD, the World Bank, the IMF and the G20 developed and developing countries including the Russian Federation.

MEASURING VOLUMES OF CROSS-BORDER E-COMMERCE

Handbook on measuring digital trade

Represents a roadmap for the periods ahead Reflects the results of three rounds of discussions within the TFITS working group on measuring digital trade Includes materials of three studies prepared by the OECD and the IMF

Is supplemented by materials of political fora as well as those of the Directorate General of the European Commission on Trade, WTO, OECD and the G20 working groups on trade, investment, and digital trade

New definition of digital trade

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• Figure 1. The Conceptual Framework for Digital Trade

MEASURING VOLUMES OF CROSS-BORDER E-COMMERCE

• 2. Model for assessing goods imports within the framework of cross-border e-commerce in the balance
• f payments of the Russian Federation in 2011-2013

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• Within the framework of cross-border e-commerce, goods are delivered via international postal shipments as goods for

individuals’ personal consumption.

MEASURING VOLUMES OF CROSS-BORDER E-COMMERCE

Quantity of incoming international postal shipments with goods’ inputs (IPS)

(Data from administrative records of Federal State Unitary Enterprise FGUP «Post of Russia» )

Data collection: from 2011 Periodicity: quarterly Compilation detail: by type of IPS (parcels, EMS- shipments, small packages)

Expert appraisal of the average value of

• ne international postal shipment

(IPS) (taking into account estimates of Federal State Unitary

Enterprise FGUP «Post of Russia», Federal Customs Service of Russia, Association of Companies in Internet- Trade (АCIT), published in the mass media)

On average 250$ - per parcel and ЕМS-shipment, 50$ - per small package

Goods imports within e-commerce

∑

Quantity of incoming international postal shipments Average value of one shipment by type

DYNAMICS OF GOODS IMPORTS WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF E- COMMERCE IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION IN 2011-2013

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MEASURING VOLUMES OF CROSS-BORDER E-COMMERCE 168 195 181 242 267 289 258 338 515 601 634 801

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 7 000 8 000 9 000 10 000 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1 000

Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013

Millions of US dollars Thousands pieces

Imports of goods within e-commerce (left scale) Quantity of incoming IPS (right scale)

82 84 94 95 95 97 97 18 16 6 5 5 3 3 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

COMPOSITION OF INCOMING INTERNATIONAL POSTAL SHIPMENTS WITH GOODS’ INPUTS

Parcels and EMS-shipments Small packages

Shortcomings in the approach to constructing the model for assessing volumes of goods imports within cross-border e-commerce using data on incoming postal shipments: 8

MEASURING VOLUMES OF CROSS-BORDER E-COMMERCE

• Complexity of appraising the average value of one

transaction and adjusting it, taking into account changes in the economic situation;

• Lack of information on volumes of resident

individuals’ purchases in foreign Internet stores delivered via private carriers (DHL, FedEx, etc.).

TRANSITION FROM THE MODEL FOR ASSESSING GOODS IMPORTS WITHIN E-COMMERCE TOWARDS COMPILING INFORMATION BASED ON BANKS’ REPORTS

817 983 1145 1196 1250 634 801 870 986 987 5 10 15 20 25 300 600 900 1200 1500

Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014

Millions of pieces Millions of US dollars

Imports of goods, resulting from the appraisal model (left scale) Imports of goods based on reported data (left scale) Quantity of incoming IPS (right scale) Quantity of payments for goods purchased on the Internet web using payment cards (right scale)

• 3. Methods of compiling goods imports’ aggregates within e-commerce

based on reported data after 2014

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MEASURING VOLUMES OF CROSS-BORDER E-COMMERCE

1. Bank reporting form «Information about transactions with the use of payment cards and infrastructure designated for transactions to withdraw (deposit) funds in cash and effect payments for goods (works, services) with or without the use of payment cards» Data collection: data collected from Q3 2013 and used for compiling the aggregate – from Q1 2014 Periodicity: quarterly Aggregates: - quantity of transactions (number)

• total payments for goods (thousands of rubles)

Compilation detail: - by credit institutions

• by individuals and legal entities (including individual

entrepreneurs - IPs)1

1 Such breakdown is stipulated by the differences in the rules for issuing payment cards at the request of legal

entities (and IPs) and for individuals (cards issued at the request of legal entities and IPs have limitations on the list of transactions).

2. Data of electronic money operators (EMOs) PayPal, Qiwi, YandexMoney Data collection: data collected from Q4 2013 and used for compiling the aggregate – from Q1 2014 Periodicity: quarterly Aggregate: total electronic money transfers for purchasing goods (millions of US dollars)

DYNAMICS OF GOODS IMPORTS WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF E- COMMERCE IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION IN 2014-2018 Millions of US dollars

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MEASURING VOLUMES OF CROSS-BORDER E-COMMERCE

COMPOSITION OF GOODS IMPORTS WITHN THE FRAMEWORK OF E-COMMERCE IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION BY PAYMENT METHOD Percent

1145 1196 1250 856 702 830 816 688 614 941 1476 1832 2016 2176 2182 2569 2716 2478 2325 2187 1 977 2 113

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019

Imports of goods acquired in foreign Internet stores

79 81 83 81 85 83 87 83 87 90 93 93 93 93 92 92 94 92 93 93 94 93 22 19 17 19 15 18 13 17 13 10 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 8 7 7 6 7

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019

Paid using payment cards Paid via electronic funds transfer

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MEASURING VOLUMES OF CROSS-BORDER E-COMMERCE

DYNAMICS OF RELATIVE GOODS IMPORTS’ INDICATORS WITHIN E-COMMERCE IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION 0,3 0,7 1,4 1,6 2,5 3,8 3,9 3,5 46,5 121,4 74,4

• 31,7

60,2 83,9 8,5

• 21,3

5,4 1,6

• 9,8
• 37,3
• 0,8

24,4 4,4 1,7

• 2,0

0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0

• 50,0

0,0 50,0 100,0 150,0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1st Half 2019

Growth rates on the preceding year, percent Share, percent Growth rates of goods imports (FOB)(left scale) Growth rates of goods imports within e-commerce (left scale) Share of goods imports within e-commerce in total merchandise imports (FOB) (right scale)

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MEASURING VOLUMES OF CROSS-BORDER E-COMMERCE

Absence of the possibility to separate total values of goods acquired by individuals for personal consumption and for further resale High probability of multiple recording of goods imports volumes entering the retail trade network, which have not been captured by customs statistics The need for introducing an adjustment for double counting in the model for assessing hidden («shadow») merchandise imports in the balance of payments of the Russian Federation

• 4. Problem of double counting

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MEASURING VOLUMES OF CROSS-BORDER E-COMMERCE

• 5. Specifics of estimating volumes of goods exports in the framework of

e-commerce on the basis of banks reports

 Banks’ reports allow to get data on values of goods (works, services), acquired via the Internet web with the use of payment cards issued outside the Russian Federation, without detailing goods and services separately;  In order to identify the share of goods, in 2016 the first sample survey of credit institutions was carried out, with the weight of the sample in total volume of the foregoing aggregate in the report for 2015 constituting 95%;  Factoring in data for the full coverage was based upon the average common ratio calculated for the sample;  Data of the sample survey have been used to calculate goods exports volumes within e-commerce for the years of 2015 and 2016;  Given the high volatility of the aggregates compiled from the sample, and in the absence of possibility to expand the array of reporting data in banks’ regular reports because of constraints on increasing reporting burden on credit institutions, the annual sample surveys of credit institutions are conducted on a regular basis.

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MEASURING VOLUMES OF CROSS-BORDER E-COMMERCE

DYNAMICS OF GOODS EXPORTS WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF MERCHANDISE E-COMMERCE IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

23 17 19 15 15 15 16 10 11 10 10 10 11 11 14 20 28 25 38,9 26,0 28,6 24,1 16,1 16,4 15,7 20,5 23,7 26,7 25,6 32,0 31,8 41,3 45,6 60,3 96,2 107,6

10 20 30 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120

Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019

Millions of US dollars Percent Exports of goods within e-commerce (left scale) Share of goods in total value of goods and services acquired via the Internet web using payment cards issued outside the Russian Federation (right scale)

Goods acquired in Russian Internet stores*

MERCHANDISE EXPORTS IN CROSS-BORDER E-COMMERCE

15

64% 36%

Shares of shipments by orders’ source

Internet stores Market-place

11,2

60% 19% 13% 8%

Geographic distribution in online-exports

Non-CIS countries Belarus Kazakhstan Ukraine 36% 14% 14% 10% 6% 6% 4%

Shares contributed to total receipts

86% 14%

Export shipments’ logistics

Shipments of medium and small exporting companies are handled by the Post of Russia Shipments handled by other logistics’ operators * Source: Data Insight, ordered by eBay, Retail goods exports via Internet, 2018 — datainsight.ru/eBayCrossborder2018

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MEASURING VOLUMES OF CROSS-BORDER E-COMMERCE

• 6. Publication of cross-border e-commerce statistics

The information is posted quarterly on the Bank of Russia’s official website under «Statistics / Macroeconomic financial statistics / External sector statistics / External trade in goods and services» directory as part of Table «External merchandise trade of the Russian Federation (under balance of payments methodology), detailed components» at the following address:

http://www.cbr.ru/statistics/?PrtId=svs

Statistics and Data Management Department Mail address: Russian Federation,107016, Moscow, Neglinnaya street, 12 Tel/Fax: +7 495 771-44-60 Website: www.cbr.ru E-mail: ds ext sector@cbr.ru