Venues for developing Russias statistics of cross-border electronic - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Venues for developing Russia’s statistics of cross-border electronic trade in goods Presented by L.N. Stolyarova Bank of Russia Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan, November 14-15, 2019

2 MAIN CONCEPTS AND DEFINITIONS External merchandise trade under balance of payments methodology Goods procured by carriers in ports Cross-border transactions Exports/imports of goods based on customs statistics Transactions that do not involve frontier-crossing data Fish, fish and marine products sold outside Russia’s territory Goods acquired via Internet stores Other goods Other goods

3 MAIN CONCEPTS AND DEFINITIONS Definition of cross-border e-commerce in external sector statistics IMF’s «Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual» (BPM6):  E-commerce is a method of ordering or delivering products, at least partly, by electronic means, such as through Internet or other computer-mediated networks. «International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Concepts and Definitions 2010»:  The term “goods in electronic commerce” refers to goods that physically move across country borders as the result of transactions executed entirely, or to a significant extent, by electronic means.

4 MEASURING VOLUMES OF CROSS-BORDER E-COMMERCE New definition of digital trade New definition of digital trade is provided in Handbook on Measuring Digital Trade presented in the framework of Task o Force on International Trade Statistics (TFITS), which includes representatives from the OECD, the World Bank, the IMF and the G20 developed and developing countries including the Russian Federation. Handbook on measuring digital trade Represents a roadmap for the periods ahead Reflects the results of three rounds of discussions within the TFITS working group on measuring digital trade Includes materials of three studies prepared by the OECD and the IMF Is supplemented by materials of political fora as well as those of the Directorate General of the European Commission on Trade, WTO, OECD and the G20 working groups on trade, investment, and digital trade

5 MEASURING VOLUMES OF CROSS-BORDER E-COMMERCE New definition of digital trade Figure 1. The Conceptual Framework for Digital Trade o

6 MEASURING VOLUMES OF CROSS-BORDER E-COMMERCE 2. Model for assessing goods imports within the framework of cross-border e-commerce in the balance of payments of the Russian Federation in 2011-2013 Within the framework of cross-border e-commerce, goods are delivered via international postal shipments as goods for o individuals’ personal consumption. ∑ Average value of one Goods imports within Quantity of incoming shipment by type international postal shipments e-commerce Quantity of incoming international postal Expert appraisal of the average value of shipments with goods’ inputs (IPS) one international postal shipment (IPS) (Data from administrative records of Federal State (taking into account estimates of Federal State Unitary Unitary Enterprise FGUP «Post of Russia» ) Enterprise FGUP «Post of Russia», Federal Customs Service of Russia, Association of Companies in Internet- Data collection: from 2011 Trade (А CIT), published in the mass media) Periodicity: quarterly On average 250$ - per parcel and ЕМ S-shipment, Compilation detail: by type of IPS (parcels, EMS- 50$ - per small package shipments, small packages)

7 MEASURING VOLUMES OF CROSS-BORDER E-COMMERCE DYNAMICS OF GOODS IMPORTS WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF E- COMMERCE IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION IN 2011-2013 1 000 10 000 900 9 000 800 8 000 COMPOSITION OF INCOMING INTERNATIONAL 801 POSTAL SHIPMENTS WITH GOODS’ INPUTS 700 7 000 Thousands pieces Millions of US dollars 600 6 000 601 634 2018 97 3 500 5 000 515 2017 97 3 400 4 000 300 3 000 2016 95 5 338 242 267 289 258 200 2 000 2015 95 5 168 195 181 100 1 000 2014 94 6 0 0 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 2013 84 16 2012 82 18 Imports of goods within e-commerce (left scale) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Quantity of incoming IPS (right scale) Parcels and EMS-shipments Small packages

8 MEASURING VOLUMES OF CROSS-BORDER E-COMMERCE TRANSITION FROM THE MODEL FOR ASSESSING GOODS Shortcomings in the approach to constructing the IMPORTS WITHIN E-COMMERCE TOWARDS COMPILING model for assessing volumes of goods imports within INFORMATION BASED ON BANKS’ REPORTS cross-border e-commerce using data on incoming postal shipments: 1500 25 1250 1196 Millions of US dollars 1145 1200 20  Complexity of appraising the average value of one Millions of pieces 986 987 983 transaction and adjusting it, taking into account 870 817 900 801 15 changes in the economic situation; 634 600 10  Lack of information on volumes of resident individuals’ purchases in foreign Internet stores 300 5 delivered via private carriers (DHL, FedEx, etc.). 0 0 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Imports of goods, resulting from the appraisal model (left scale) Imports of goods based on reported data (left scale) Quantity of incoming IPS (right scale) Quantity of payments for goods purchased on the Internet web using payment cards (right scale)

9 MEASURING VOLUMES OF CROSS-BORDER E-COMMERCE 3. Methods of compiling goods imports’ aggregates within e-commerce based on reported data after 2014 1. Bank reporting form 2. Data of electronic money operators (EMOs) «Information about transactions with the use of payment cards and PayPal, Qiwi, YandexMoney infrastructure designated for transactions to withdraw (deposit) funds in cash and effect payments for goods (works, services) with or without the Data collection: data collected from Q4 2013 and used use of payment cards» for compiling the aggregate – from Q1 2014 Data collection: data collected from Q3 2013 and used for compiling the aggregate – from Q1 2014 Periodicity: quarterly Periodicity: quarterly Aggregate: total electronic money transfers for Aggregates: - quantity of transactions (number) - total payments for goods (thousands of rubles) purchasing goods (millions of US dollars) Compilation detail: - by credit institutions - by individuals and legal entities (including individual entrepreneurs - IPs) 1 1 Such breakdown is stipulated by the differences in the rules for issuing payment cards at the request of legal entities (and IPs) and for individuals (cards issued at the request of legal entities and IPs have limitations on the list of transactions).

10 MEASURING VOLUMES OF CROSS-BORDER E-COMMERCE DYNAMICS OF GOODS IMPORTS WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF E- COMPOSITION OF GOODS IMPORTS WITHN THE COMMERCE IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION IN 2014-2018 FRAMEWORK OF E-COMMERCE IN THE RUSSIAN Millions of US dollars FEDERATION BY PAYMENT METHOD Percent 3000 2716 2569 93 7 Q2 2019 2478 94 6 2500 Q1 2019 2325 Q4 2018 93 7 2176 2182 2187 2 113 Q3 2018 93 7 2016 1 977 Q2 2018 92 8 2000 1832 94 7 Q1 2018 Q4 2017 92 8 Q3 2017 92 8 1476 1500 Q2 2017 93 7 1145 1196 1250 93 7 Q1 2017 7 Q4 2016 93 941 Q3 2016 93 7 1000 856 830 816 Q2 2016 90 10 702 688 614 87 13 Q1 2016 83 17 Q4 2015 500 Q3 2015 87 13 Q2 2015 83 18 Q1 2015 85 15 0 81 19 Q4 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2014 83 17 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 Q2 2014 81 19 Q1 2014 79 22 Imports of goods acquired in foreign Internet stores 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Paid using payment cards Paid via electronic funds transfer

11 MEASURING VOLUMES OF CROSS-BORDER E-COMMERCE DYNAMICS OF RELATIVE GOODS IMPORTS’ INDICATORS WITHIN E-COMMERCE IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION 150,0 6,0 121,4 preceding year, percent 3,9 3,8 Growth rates on the 3,5 100,0 4,0 Share, percent 74,4 2,5 83,9 46,5 1,6 50,0 2,0 1,4 60,2 0,7 8,5 0,3 1,7 24,4 0,0 0,0 -31,7 5,4 4,4 1,6 -0,8 -9,8 -21,3 -37,3 -50,0 -2,0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1st Half 2019 Growth rates of goods imports (FOB) (left scale) Growth rates of goods imports within e-commerce (left scale) Share of goods imports within e-commerce in total merchandise imports (FOB) (right scale)

12 MEASURING VOLUMES OF CROSS-BORDER E-COMMERCE 4. Problem of double counting Absence of the possibility to separate total values of goods acquired by individuals for personal consumption and for further resale High probability of multiple recording of goods imports volumes entering the retail trade network, which have not been captured by customs statistics The need for introducing an adjustment for double counting in the model for assessing hidden («shadow») merchandise imports in the balance of payments of the Russian Federation