Venezuela National Public Opinion Survey April 2019 Methodology - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Venezuela National Public Opinion Survey

April 2019

Methodology

Figure 1

❖ National survey

• Conducted April 11 to 28, 2019
• 980 face-to-face interviews
• Margin of error is +/- 3.1 at the 95% confidence level
• Demographically and geographically representative

Conclusions

Figure 2

❖ Extreme polarization ❖ Rejection of Maduro regime, but base of support ❖ Strong support for Guaidó ❖ U.S. and allied countries viewed positively ❖ Support for elections under Guaidó and targeted sanctions ❖ Division on military foreign intervention ❖ Chávez’s legacy mixed

Figure 3

Maduro Widely Rejected, but Has a Base of Support

Political blocs

Figure 4

28 41 31

Political Blocs

PSUV Supporters of anti-regime political parties No party affiliation

78 18 8 26 45 21 5 11 23 22 40

20 40 60 80

Unaffiliated

78 17 9 25 48 17 4 14 14 24 43

20 40 60 80

Anti-regime

Demographic breakdown of political blocs

Figure 5

64 32 6 12 54 27 8 18 18 23 32

20 40 60 80

Urban Rural University grad/post-grad Technical studies/some univ High school graduates Some high school 60+ 50 - 59 40 - 49 30 - 39 18 - 29

PSUV

50+ years: 26 50+ years: 18 50+ years: 16

Profound dissatisfaction, but regime maintains considerable base

Figure 6

1 3 24 71 9 2 45 7 54 68 75 29 90 98 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Very good Very good/good Very bad Very bad/bad Generally speaking, would you say the situation in the country is going in a very good, good, bad, or very bad direction? PSUV Anti-regime Unaffiliated Total

24 23 25 75 74 73 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 February 2018 June 2018 April 2019 Excellent/good Very bad/bad 6 86 3 69 70 12 99 95 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Excellent Excellent/good Very bad Very bad/bad PSUV Anti-regime Unaffiliated

Poor rating for Maduro's performance, and extraordinary polarization

Figure 7

In general terms, how would you rate the government of Nicolás Maduro? April 2019 – Bloc

31 29 16 17 43 49 60 65 66 70 84 82 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Excellent Excellent/good Very bad Very bad/bad

Maduro has lost support from lower social classes

Figure 8

In general terms, how would you rate the government of Nicolás Maduro? High school graduates Technical studies/ some university University grad/ post-grad Education Some high school

Venezuelans reject other PSUV leaders

Figure 9

26 23 24 68 72 69 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Nicolás Maduro Diosdado Cabello Vladimir Padrino Favorable Unfavorable Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people or institutions with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm

• r cold.

Opinions of military and their families dovetail with those of civilians

Figure 10

28 26 23 23 25 24 65 69 71 72 68 69 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Soldiers/ family in military Non-military families Soldiers/ family in military Non-military families Soldiers/ family in military Non-military families Favorable Unfavorable Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people or institutions with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm

• r cold.

Nicolás Maduro Diosdado Cabello Vladimir Padrino

Government blamed for economic crisis and blackouts

Figure 11

4 12 12 64 20 40 60 80 Private companies The opposition United States The government And who do you think is to blame for the economic situation in Venezuela: the Maduro government, the United States, the opposition, or private companies? Who is to blame for the electric blackout in Venezuela: the Maduro government, the United States, the opposition, or private companies? 1 9 16 68 20 40 60 80 Private companies The opposition United States The government

73 25

Total

Allowed Blocked

Frustration with rejection of humanitarian aid

Figure 12

Do you think that the government of Nicolás Maduro should have allowed the entry of humanitarian assistance provided by the United States, Brazil and other countries that recognize Juan Guaidó or do you think the Maduro government was right to block the entry of humanitarian aid into the country? 15 96 93 78 4 5 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 PSUV Anti-regime Unaffiliated

Bloc

Allowed Blocked

Disapproval of Maduro-backed institutions

Figure 13

59 31 34 33 38 67 63 66 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Asamblea Nacional Asamblea Nacional Constituyente Tribunal Supremo de Justicia Consejo Nacional Electoral Approve Disapprove Now, I'm going to read some institutions: When I read each name, please tell me if you strongly approve, approve, disapprove or strongly disapprove of the role that institution has played in the present political situation.

Large-scale migration will continue, with political impact

Figure 14

4 40 47 96 43 36 15 8 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 PSUV Anti-regime Unaffiliated

Bloc

Move to another country Stay in Venezuela Depends on how things go Thinking about the next few months, what would you prefer: move to another country or stay in Venezuela? 32 56 9

Total

Move to another country Stay in Venezuela Depends on how things go

Figure 15

Strong Backing for Guaidó

Guaidó is only politician with favorable rating

Figure 16

29 39 30 54 52 45 54 36 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Henrique Capriles Leopoldo López María Corina Machado Juan Guaidó Favorable Unfavorable I would like to measure your feelings towards some people and institutions.

Confidence in Guaidó’s leadership

Figure 17

How would you rate the role played by Juan Guaidó as interim president appointed by the National Assembly: excellent, good, bad or very bad? How much confidence do you have in Juan Guaidó to lead a political transition in Venezuela: a lot, some, little or no confidence? 16 58 22 33 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Excellent Excellent/good Very bad Very bad/bad 32 59 30 39 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 A lot A lot/some None None/little

Guaidó seen as more than just a transition figure

Figure 18

14 85 68 65 13 15 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 PSUV Anti-regime Unaffiliated

Bloc

Run as candidate Only transitional If presidential elections are held while Guaidó is interim president, do you think he should run as a candidate or should he only serve as president during the transition? 60 28

Total

Run as candidate Only transitional

Guaidó would easily defeat Maduro

Figure 19

95 1 2 1 93 75 3 6 13 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 PSUV Anti-regime Unaffiliated

Bloc

Maduro Guaidó Don't know yet If presidential elections are held this year, and the candidates are Nicolás Maduro and Juan Guaidó, for whom would you vote? 28 61 8

Total

Maduro Guaidó Don't know yet

Maduro would lose election under any scenario

Figure 20

And if the candidates were Nicolás Maduro and Leopoldo López, for whom would you vote? And if the candidates were Nicolás Maduro, Leopoldo López and Henry Falcón, for whom would you vote? 28 57 9 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Maduro López No sabe todavía 27 48 10 9 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Maduro López Falcón No sabe todavía

Figure 21

Support for Elections Under Guaidó and Targeted Sanctions

Clear majority wants Armed Forces to support Guaidó

Figure 22

97 2 9 1 91 67 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 PSUV Anti-regime Unaffiliated

Bloc

Maduro Guaidó And what do you want the members of the armed forces to do: maintain their loyalty to Maduro and the military high command or support the government of Juan Guaidó? 31 58

Total

Maduro Guaidó

Soldiers and their families want military to support Guaidó

Figure 23

33 31 55 59 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Soldiers/ family in military Non-military families Maduro Guaidó And what do you want the members of the armed forces to do: maintain their loyalty to Maduro and the military high command or support the government of Juan Guaidó?

52 13 64 70 42 77 35 20 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Strongly/somewhat agree Strongly/somewhat disagree 24 6 28 36 29 62 16 15 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Total PSUV Anti-regime Unaffiliated Strongly agree Strongly disagree

Opponents support amnesty for government and army

Figure 24

As you know, Juan Guaidó has offered an amnesty to senior government officials, including Nicolás Maduro, and members of the army who support a transition to a new constitutional government. Crimes against humanity, such as murder and torture, would be exempt from amnesty. Do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree with amnesty for government officials and army members who support a transition to a new constitutional government?

Support for elections under Guaidó, sanctions and action by army

Figure 25

35 25 33 49 47 55 51 52 52 60 62 65

20 40 60 80 100

The United States and other countries impose additional restrictions on the Maduro government's ability to access financial resources International mediators convene a dialogue between the government and the opposition Supporters of Juan Guaidó, including soldiers who left the armed forces, take up arms to overthrow Maduro The Venezuelan Army removes Nicolás Maduro from the presidency Foreign countries sanction more Venezuelan officials by freezing their assets and prohibiting their ability to travel to certain countries Nicolás Maduro resigns, and new elections are held under the provisional presidency of Juan Guaidó Strongly agree Strongly/somewhat agree

Now I am going to read you a list of possible ways to solve the political situation in Venezuela. For each of them, please tell me if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree?

Majority support

Greater consensus on mediated dialogue

Figure 26

30 20 27 67 45 48 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 PSUV Anti-regime Unaffiliated Strongly/somewhat agree Strongly agree Please tell me if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree? International mediators convene a dialogue between the government and the opposition Bloc

Division on foreign military action; rejection of regime as part of solution

Figure 27

10 20 19 21 31 35 19 35 42 47 49 49

20 40 60 80 100

Nicolás Maduro resigns, and another PSUV leader assumes the Presidency New presidential elections are held while Nicolás Maduro remains in power Representatives of Nicolás Maduro and Juan Guaidó meet for direct negotiations An interim government is formed by representatives of Maduro and Guaidó to supervise new presidential elections and a political transition The United States conducts a military operation alone to remove Nicolás Maduro from the presidency The United States and other foreign countries conduct a military

• peration to remove Nicolás Maduro from the presidency

Strongly agree Strongly/somewhat agree

Now I am going to read you a list of possible ways to solve the political situation in Venezuela. For each of them, please tell me if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree?

Less than majority support

Public divided on foreign military intervention

Figure 28

With which of the following statements do you agree more?

43 41 14

20 40 60 80

It will never be appropriate to consider a foreign military intervention to resolve the political situation in Venezuela Now is the time to consider a foreign military intervention to resolve the political situation in Venezuela It is premature to consider a foreign military intervention to resolve the political situation in Venezuela Total

Most anti-regime parties and non-affiliated want intervention now

Figure 29

With which of the following statements do you agree more?

6 21 13

58 55 93 19 27

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

PSUV Anti-regime Unaffiliated Premature Now is the moment Never appropriate ….to consider a foreign military intervention to resolve the political situation in Venezuela

67 32 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Total Yes No

Division on sanctions against PDVSA

Figure 30

48 7 73 53 46 93 23 33 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Total PSUV Anti-regime Unaffiliated Support Oppose Have you seen or heard anything recently about the actions of the United States with respect to PDVSA? The United States recently banned payments for Venezuelan oil to PDVSA. Do you support or

• ppose this action by the U.S. government?

Concerns about impact of sanctions

Figure 31

29 61 55 73 57 33 31 22 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 C D E Rural

Social class

Negatively impacted Not impacted Thinking about the sanctions imposed by the United States and other countries on Venezuela in the last two years, have you and your family been impacted negatively or have you not been impacted? 59 34

Total

Negatively impacted Not impacted

Figure 32

Attitudes on Role of United States, EU and Lima Group

Support for role of United States and allied countries

Figure 33

Now I am going to read you a list of countries. After each one, please tell me if you think that country is playing a very positive, positive, negative or very negative role in the current situation in Venezuela.

63 49 44 50 43 34 28 27 29 37 32 33 34 40 43 48 50 54 57 59 59 64

20 40 60 80 100

Cuba Iran Turkey Russia China Mexico Canada European Union Brazil United States Colombia Total positive Total negative

90 70 99 97 9 29 1 2 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Very/somewhat important Not at all/not very important 75 38 90 88 6 20 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Total PSUV Anti-regime Unaffiliated Very important Not at all important

Receptivity to investment from other countries

Figure 34

How important do you think the investment of companies from other countries is to revitalizing the Venezuelan economy?

Figure 35

Chávez Legacy Mixed

Chávez personal image negative

Figure 36

I would like to measure your feelings towards some people and institutions. 72 69 68 52 54 58 45 33 36 23 24 26 29 30 33 39 45 54 20 40 60 80 100 Diosdado Cabello Vladimir Padrino Nicolás Maduro Henrique Capriles María Corina Machado Hugo Chávez Leopoldo López Lorenzo Mendoza Juan Guaidó Favorable Unfavorable

50 100 25 36 49 74 62 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Excellent/good Very bad/bad 26 78 10 27 33 45 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Total PSUV Anti-regime Unaffiliated Excellent Very bad

Chávez receives decent rating for performance as president

Figure 37

And thinking now of President Hugo Chávez, how would you rate the job he did as president: excellent, good, bad

• r very bad?

58 20 74 71 38 78 23 21 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Total PSUV Anti-regime Unaffiliated Expunge strongly/somewhat agree Incorporate strongly/somewhat agree 46 5 62 62 29 64 19 12 Expunge strongly agree Incorporate strongly agree Venezuela will never be fully democratic and economically successful until it expunges Chavismo. For Venezuela to achieve social and political peace, Chavismo must be recognized and incorporated.

Majority wants to expunge Chavismo; notable minority wants to incorporate

Figure 38

I am going to read you two sentences and I would like you to tell me if you agree with the first sentence or agree with the second sentence:

Majority wants to maintain some Chavista policies

Figure 39

If there is a change of government: Would you like the next government to maintain all Chávez policies, maintain some of the Chávez policies or reject all Chávez policies? 88 4 12 10 36 27 1 60 56 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 PSUV Anti-regime Unaffiliated

Bloc

Maintain all Maintain some Exclude all 30 26 42

Total

Maintain all Maintain some Exclude all

Significant support for social programs

Figure 40

99 41 38 1 56 51 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 PSUV Anti-regime Unaffiliated

Bloc

Maintained Eliminated And speaking of the missions, if there is a change of government do you believe that the missions should be maintained or should they be eliminated? 56 39

Total

Maintained Eliminated

G B A O

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