Using maps of city analogues to display climate change scenarios - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Using maps of city analogues to display climate change scenarios - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Using maps of city analogues to display climate change scenarios and their uncertainty Sebastian Kopf*, Minh Ha Duong + , Stphane Hallegatte * Jacobs University, + CIRED, CIRED/Mto-France Berlin Conference on the Human Dimensions

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Using maps of city analogues to display climate change scenarios and their uncertainty

Sebastian Kopf*, Minh Ha Duong+, Stéphane Hallegatte‡ *Jacobs University, +CIRED, ‡CIRED/Météo-France Berlin Conference on the Human Dimensions

  • f Global Environmental Change
  • Feb. 22nd 2008
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Using maps of city analogues to display climate change scenarios and their uncertainty

Sebastian Kopf*, Minh Ha Duong+, Stéphane Hallegatte‡ *Jacobs University, +CIRED, ‡CIRED/Météo-France Berlin Conference on the Human Dimensions

  • f Global Environmental Change
  • Feb. 22nd 2008
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Using maps of city analogues to display climate change scenarios and their uncertainty

Sebastian Kopf (Jacobs University), Minh Ha Duong (CIRED), Stéphane Hallegatte (CIRED, Météo-France) Berlin Conference, Feb. 22nd 2008 Introduction Page 1 / 12

Using Analogues

  • a “city analogue” is…

“A City B whose present climate corresponds to the simulated future climate of an evaluated City A.“

  • “climate” is…

the 30 year distribution of relevant indicators

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SLIDE 4

Climate Indicators – Aridity Index

Part I: Indicators Page 2 / 12

Using maps of city analogues to display climate change scenarios and their uncertainty

Sebastian Kopf (Jacobs University), Minh Ha Duong (CIRED), Stéphane Hallegatte (CIRED, Météo-France) Berlin Conference, Feb. 22nd 2008

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Climate Indicators – Degree Days

Part I: Indicators Page 3 / 12

Using maps of city analogues to display climate change scenarios and their uncertainty

Sebastian Kopf (Jacobs University), Minh Ha Duong (CIRED), Stéphane Hallegatte (CIRED, Météo-France) Berlin Conference, Feb. 22nd 2008

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SLIDE 6

Climate Similarity – Kolmogorov-Smirnov

Part I: Similarity Page 4 / 12

Using maps of city analogues to display climate change scenarios and their uncertainty

Sebastian Kopf (Jacobs University), Minh Ha Duong (CIRED), Stéphane Hallegatte (CIRED, Météo-France) Berlin Conference, Feb. 22nd 2008

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Climate Similarity – Kolmogorov-Smirnov

Part I: Similarity Page 5 / 12

Using maps of city analogues to display climate change scenarios and their uncertainty

Sebastian Kopf (Jacobs University), Minh Ha Duong (CIRED), Stéphane Hallegatte (CIRED, Météo-France) Berlin Conference, Feb. 22nd 2008

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SLIDE 8

Analogue quality map for Paris

Part I: Analogues Page 6 / 12

Using maps of city analogues to display climate change scenarios and their uncertainty

Sebastian Kopf (Jacobs University), Minh Ha Duong (CIRED), Stéphane Hallegatte (CIRED, Météo-France) Berlin Conference, Feb. 22nd 2008

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SLIDE 9
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SLIDE 10

Using Analogues

  • a “city analogue” is…

“A City B whose present climate corresponds to the simulated future climate of an evaluated City A.“

  • “climate” is…

the 30 year distribution of suitable parameters

Overview Page 8 / 12

Using maps of city analogues to display climate change scenarios and their uncertainty

Sebastian Kopf (Jacobs University), Minh Ha Duong (CIRED), Stéphane Hallegatte (CIRED, Météo-France) Berlin Conference, Feb. 22nd 2008

  • visualization of “good” analogues using analogue quality

maps

  • visualization of aggregate displacement using multiple

analogue maps

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SLIDE 11

Model run sensitivity: HadRM3H ackda Arpège DE6

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SLIDE 12

Part II: Uncertainty Page 10 / 12

Using maps of city analogues to display climate change scenarios and their uncertainty

Sebastian Kopf (Jacobs University), Minh Ha Duong (CIRED), Stéphane Hallegatte (CIRED, Météo-France) Berlin Conference, Feb. 22nd 2008

HadRM3P forced by HadAM3P

Scenario sensitivity: B2 A2

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SLIDE 13

Using Analogues

  • a “city analogue” is…

“A City B whose present climate corresponds to the simulated future climate of an evaluated City A.“

  • “climate” is…

the 30 year distribution of suitable parameters

Overview Page 11 / 12

Using maps of city analogues to display climate change scenarios and their uncertainty

Sebastian Kopf (Jacobs University), Minh Ha Duong (CIRED), Stéphane Hallegatte (CIRED, Météo-France) Berlin Conference, Feb. 22nd 2008

visualization of “good” analogues using analogue quality maps visualization of aggregate displacement using multiple analogue maps

  • assessment of uncertainty by comparing multiple model

and scenario analogue maps

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Conclusion analogues provide a method to talk about climate change to the lay-person adaptation cannot rely on climate change predictions (yet?)

Thank you for your attention!

Conclusion Page 12 / 12

Using maps of city analogues to display climate change scenarios and their uncertainty

Sebastian Kopf (Jacobs University), Minh Ha Duong (CIRED), Stéphane Hallegatte (CIRED, Météo-France) Berlin Conference, Feb. 22nd 2008