Use of DWP data to monitor migrants access to benefits Russ Bentley - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Use of DWP data to monitor migrants access to benefits

Russ Bentley & Richard Mosley, DWP

Working age Feb17 The new landscape of DWP benefits

National Insurance Numbers Allocated to Adult Overseas Nationals : Nationality of DWP benefit claimants

7% of DWP working age claimants were overseas nationals

As at February 2017, 4.8 million people were claiming DWP working age benefits Of these, 353 thousand (7.4%) are estimated to have been non-UK nationals when they first registered for a NINo. This compares with 359 thousand (7.3%) in 2016

Non-UK nationals at NINo registration: DWP working age benefit claimants (thousands) and proportion of total - Feb 2010 to Feb 2017

Jobseekers ESA and incapacity benefits Lone Parents Pakistan 4.52 Pakistan 11.88 Pakistan 3.24 Poland 4.33 Poland 10.21 Somalia 2.87 Iran 4.19 Iran 8.05 Poland 2.00 Eritrea 3.88 Ireland 7.81 Eritrea 1.68 Sudan 3.68 India 7.13 Nigeria 1.34 Syria 3.04 Somalia 6.05 Jamaica 1.18

Non-UK nationals at NINo registration: DWP working age benefit claimants by nationality (thousands)

From December 2013, the Government introduced a set of measures to restrict access to benefits for migrants from the European Economic Area (EEA). These included:

• From December 2013, the introduction of a stronger, more robust Habitual Residence Test (HRT).
• From January 2014, no immediate access to Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) for those arriving in the

UK, and a limit to the length of time JSA can be claimed.

• From April 2014, newly arrived EEA Jobseekers cannot claim Housing Benefit (HB).

Range of measures introduced over the last few years to restrict access to benefits for migrants….

…and we’ve seen a decrease in the proportion of JSA claims from EEA nationals Who claimed within 90 days….

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 EEA migrants Measures introduced for new claims from January 2014

Proportion of total JSA claims by EEA nationals beginning within 90 days

• f arrival in the UK by month of onflow

In November 2013 (the month before the measure was introduced), around 8% of EEA national JSA claims began within 90 days of their arrival in the UK. After the measures were introduced (January 2014) this fell to 3% and has steadily decreased to around 1%.

…and big falls in Housing Benefit caseload for EEA jobseekers…

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Less than five years Five years or more All Measures introduced in April 2014

EEA migrant HB caseload (JSA (IB) passported only)

Between February 2014 (quarter before measures introduced) and November 2016 (latest available data), the number of EEA jobseekers on HB decreased by 83%. In the same period, the number of UK and CTA jobseekers on HB decreased by 53%.

…which have led to falls in out-of-work expenditure (although offset by increases In in-work expenditure…

£ millions 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 DWP Working Age Expenditure £38,293 £37,751 £37,726 EEA led claims £1,643 £1,665 £1,613 % EEA led claims 4.3% 4.4% 4.3% Non-EEA led claims £2,974 £2,975 £3,029 % Non-EEA led claims 7.8% 7.9% 8.0% DWP In-work Expenditure £4,859 £5,313 £5,546 EEA led in-work HB claims £799 £909 £999 % EEA led claims 16.4% 17.1% 18.0% Non-EEA led in-work HB claims £841 £959 £1,035 % Non-EEA led claims 17.3% 18.1% 18.7% DWP out-of-work Expenditure £33,434 £32,439 £32,181 EEA led out-of-work claims £844 £756 £613 Of which: Housing Benefit £472 £423 £341 JSA £212 £151 £73 Other out-of-work benefits £160 £182 £200 % EEA led claims 2.5% 2.3% 1.9% Non-EEA led out-of-work claims £2,133 £2,016 £1,995 Of which: Housing Benefit £1,174 £1,094 £1,073 JSA £274 £212 £196

Income Tax, NICs, Tax Credits and Child Benefit Statistics on EEA Nationals

1 | OFFICIAL | Further Statistics on EEA Migrants |

Introduction

• Aim of the publication
• Changes since the last publication
• Methodology
• Overall presentation

2 | OFFICIAL | Further Statistics on EEA Migrants |

Apportioning of countries that have since undergone dissolution. August 2016 publication:

• Yugoslavia and East Germany

August 2017 publication

• Czechoslovakia and the USSR

4 | OFFICIAL | Further Statistics on EEA Migrants |

Methodological Changes

Table A1: Breakdown of tax credit entitlement for EEA nationals (NAANR) by different family structures. Total tax credit entitlement Entitlement to Child Tax Credit (£ million) (£ million) All families 4,504 28,519 21,456 7,063 6,300 658 Families with at least one EEA national adult 344 2,102 1,477 625 6,100 43

• f which: Families with a UK national adult

38 237 184 53 6,100 5 Families with at least one recently arrived EEA national adult 84 498 333 166 5,900 8

• f which: Families with a UK national adult

4 27 19 7 6,200 0.4 Number of families (thousands) Entitlement to Working Tax Credit (£ million) Average annual tax credit entitlement (£) Number of families receiving more than £10,000 in tax credits (thousands)

Table Layout – Table A1

5 | OFFICIAL | Further Statistics on EEA Migrants |

Last year’s table with 2013-14 data This year’s table with 2014-15 data

Number of Families (Thousands) Child Tax Credit (CTC) entitlement

• nly (£Million)

WTC & CTC entitlement (£Million) Total tax credits (£Million) Average Annual tax credit Entitlement1 (£) Number of Families Receiving More Than £10,000 in tax credits (Thousands) All families 4,414 11,164 16,247 28,596 6,500 686 Families with at least one non-UK EEA national adult 366 607 1,613 2,313 6,300 51

• f which: Families with a UK national adult

40 93 157 257 6,400 6 Families with at least one recently arrived non-UK EEA national adu 85 107 393 529 6,200 10

• f which: Families with a UK national adult

5 8 21 30 6,500 1 1

Table A1: Breakdown of tax credit Entitlement by Different Family Structures, 2014-15

Working Tax Credit (WTC) entitlement

• nly (£Million)

1,186 93 7 30

Table Layout – Table A2

6 | OFFICIAL | Further Statistics on EEA Migrants |

Last year’s table with 2013-14 data This year’s table with 2014-15 data

Table A.2: Breakdown of tax credit entitlement for EEA nationals (NAANR)by out-of-work and in-work families Number of families Total tax credits entitlement Number of families Total tax credits entitlement (thousands) (£ million) (thousands) (£ million) All families 1,373 8,350 3,130 20,167 Families with at least one EEA national adult 59 357 285 1,745

• f which: Families with a UK national adult

7 42 32 196 Families with at least one recently arrived EEA national adult 13 77 71 421

• f which: Families with a UK national adult

1 5 3 22 Out-of-work families In-work families Note: Caseload figures have been rounded to the nearest 1,000, Total entitlement has been rounded to the nearest £1 million and average entitlement to the nearest £100. Totals may not add up due to rounding. Arrival date only affects recent arrivals Table A2: Breakdown of tax credit Entitlement by Out-of-Work and In-Work Families, 2014-15

Number of Families (Thousands) Total tax credits Entitlement (£Million) Number of Families (Thousands) Total tax credits Entitlement (£Million) All families 1,296 8,049 3,118 20,547 Families with at least one non-UK EEA national adult 60 360 306 1,952

• f which: Families with a UK national adult

7 43 33 214 Families with at least one recently arrived non-UK EEA national adu 12 71 73 459

• f which: Families with a UK national adult

1 5 4 25 Out-of-work families In-work families

Table Layout – Table B1 (2013-14 data)

7 | OFFICIAL | Further Statistics on EEA Migrants | Total Income Tax amount Total number of individuals Total NICs amount Total number

• f individuals

Total tax credits amount Total number

• f individuals

Total Child Benefit amount Total number

• f individuals

(£ million) (thousands) (£ million) (thousands) (£ million) (thousands) (£ million) (thousands) Latvia 82 51 128 76 93 29 29 21 Lithuania 189 99 247 142 156 47 51 37 Ireland 1170 116 714 127 59 16 38 23 Belgium 178 9 86 12 17 3 5 3 Bulgaria 91 32 86 55 43 15 15 12 Denmark 143 8 70 9 18 3 6 3 France 1560 76 741 97 60 14 30 19 Germany 772 53 432 62 56 13 25 15 Greece 268 25 171 30 9 3 5 3 Hungary 127 56 161 79 44 18 16 11 Italy 832 84 512 117 53 16 25 16 Netherlands 421 27 206 33 100 17 28 14 Poland 934 452 1250 628 656 222 255 180 Portugal 224 74 249 104 151 40 52 33 Romania 193 72 175 100 91 28 38 26 Spain 461 69 341 110 42 13 20 13 Sweden 260 17 134 20 27 5 9 5 Switzerland 102 5 42 5 5 1 2 1 Czech Rep 79 20 77 30 47 13 16 9 Slovak Rep 90 40 118 58 92 25 30 17 Total other countries 365 45 230 54 50 11 18 11 TOTAL ALL 8540 1430 6170 1947 1870 551 714 473 Note: Counts have been rounded to the nearest 1,000. Amounts have been rounded to the nearest million. Counts in thousands. Amounts in £ million. All figures rounded to 3 significant figures. The totals may not be the sum of the components due to rounding. Table B.1: Income Tax and Class 1 and 4 National Insurance Contributions, and Tax credit and Child Benefit payments for EEA nationals (NAANR) for 2013-14 grouped by EEA country . Income Tax National Insurance Contributions (NICs) Tax credits Child benefit

Table Layout – Table B1 (2014-15 data)

8 | OFFICIAL | Further Statistics on EEA Migrants |

Table B1: Income Tax and Class 1 and 4 National Insurance Contributions and tax credit and Child Benefit Payments for non-UK EU/EEA nationals in 2014-15, grouped by country

Belgium 10 179 12 89 3 19 3 6 Bulgaria 43 117 79 124 18 50 14 20 Czech Rep 23 81 37 84 13 55 10 17 Denmark 9 147 11 75 3 17 3 6 France 85 1,710 103 819 14 61 19 31 Germany 58 796 65 457 13 56 15 26 Greece 27 266 33 179 3 10 4 6 Hungary 62 151 86 188 19 50 13 19 Rep of Ireland 127 1,300 136 798 16 64 24 40 Italy 95 895 142 581 19 67 20 32 Latvia 54 103 78 152 28 99 23 33 Lithuania 108 221 157 290 46 161 40 57 Netherlands 30 394 36 208 17 104 14 30 Poland 482 1,040 666 1,400 223 685 195 281 Portugal 84 256 121 284 43 168 37 58 Romania 105 269 181 279 38 117 37 55 Slovak Rep 46 111 69 142 27 108 20 34 Spain 85 543 130 431 16 53 16 26 Sweden 16 267 20 135 5 27 5 10 Total Other EU 1 40 325 49 219 13 55 13 21 Total EU 1,590 9,170 2,210 6,940 578 2,026 526 804 Total Other EEA 2 6 120 6 47 2 13 2 4 Total EEA 1,590 9,290 2,220 6,980 580 2,040 529 808 Switzerland 6 93 6 45 1 5 1 2 Total 1,600 9,380 2,220 7,030 581 2,045 529 810 Total tax credit entitlement (£Million) Total number of individuals (Thousands) Total Child Benefit entitlement (£Million) Income Tax National Insurance Contributions (NICs) Tax Credits Child Benefit Total number of individuals (Thousands) Total Income Tax amount (£Million) Total number of individuals (Thousands) Total NICs amount (£Million) Total number of individuals (Thousands)

Table Layout – Table B2 (2013-14 data)

9 | OFFICIAL | Further Statistics on EEA Migrants | Total Income Tax amount Total number of individuals Total NICs amount Total number of individuals Total tax credits amount Total number of individuals Total Child Benefit amount Total number of individuals (£ million) (thousands) (£ million) (thousands) (£ million) (thousands) (£ million) (thousands) Latvia 23 18 42 32 30 10 9 6 Lithuania 52 37 85 67 43 15 14 10 Ireland 129 25 121 34 7 2 3 2 Belgium 28 2 17 4 3 1 1 1 Bulgaria 16 8 21 23 10 4 4 3 Denmark 28 2 17 3 1 France 345 20 192 36 6 2 3 2 Germany 154 11 89 16 7 2 3 1 Greece 52 11 46 15 3 1 1 1 Hungary 41 27 66 44 21 10 6 4 Italy 128 32 128 61 19 6 9 5 Netherlands 56 4 33 7 12 2 4 2 Poland 136 101 241 198 127 51 41 29 Portugal 64 25 79 45 42 13 15 10 Rumania 48 24 53 45 27 10 12 8 Spain 173 38 152 74 20 7 8 5 Sweden 41 4 29 6 4 1 1 1 Switzerland 15 1 9 2 1 Czech Rep 16 5 18 12 13 4 4 2 Slovak Rep 13 9 24 19 18 6 5 3 Total other countries 52 8 37 13 8 2 3 1 TOTAL ALL 1610 414 1500 755 422 149 144 95 Note: Counts have been rounded to the nearest 1,000. Amounts have been rounded to the nearest million. Counts in thousands. Amounts in £ million. All figures rounded to 3 significant figures. The totals may not be the sum of the components due to rounding. Table B.2: Income Tax and Class 1 and 4 National Insurance Contributions , and Tax credit and Child Benefit payments for recently-arrived for EEA nationals (NAANR) for 2013-14 grouped by EEA country Income Tax National Insurance Contributions (NICs) Tax credits Child Benefit

Table Layout – Table B2 (new format)

10 | OFFICIAL | Further Statistics on EEA Migrants |

Belgium 3 29 3 20 1 3 1 1 Bulgaria 14 24 40 39 5 12 4 5 Czech Rep 7 15 16 21 4 13 2 3 Denmark 2 34 3 21

• 1
• France

22 392 36 212 2 6 1 2 Germany 12 154 16 93 1 6 1 2 Greece 11 53 16 49 2 4 1 2 Hungary 29 54 49 79 9 22 5 7 Rep of Ireland 27 149 36 137 3 12 3 5 Italy 41 161 79 166 8 28 8 14 Latvia 13 17 23 31 7 21 5 6 Lithuania 28 44 54 73 11 31 8 11 Netherlands 5 48 10 35 2 12 2 4 Poland 107 148 210 268 48 125 31 44 Portugal 32 75 56 101 14 49 11 17 Romania 48 79 108 115 16 37 14 20 Slovak Rep 9 18 21 27 6 21 3 5 Spain 47 215 86 199 9 26 6 11 Sweden 3 46 6 28 1 4 1 1 Total Other EU 1 6 52 10 39 1 4 1 2 Total EU 467 1,810 877 1,750 149 438 106 163 Total Other EEA 2 1 18 2 9 1 3

• 1

Total EEA 468 1,830 878 1,760 150 442 107 164 Switzerland 2 17 2 11

• 1
• Total

470 1,840 881 1,770 150 443 107 164

Table B2: Income Tax and Class 1 and 4 National Insurance Contributions and tax credit and Child Benefit Payments for recently arrived non- UK EU/EEA nationals in 2014-15, grouped by country

Total tax credit entitlement (£Million) Total number of individuals (Thousands) Total Child Benefit entitlement (£Million) Income Tax National Insurance Contributions (NICs) Tax Credits Child Benefit Total number of individuals (Thousands) Total Income Tax amount (£Million) Total number of individuals (Thousands) Total NICs amount (£Million) Total number of individuals (Thousands)

Table Layout – Table B3 (new table – 2014-15 data)

11 | OFFICIAL | Further Statistics on EEA Migrants | Table B3: A Breakdown of tax credit payments for non-UK EU/EEA nationals in 2014-15, grouped by country

Belgium

• 1

4 2 14 3 19 Bulgaria 4 5 5 8 10 37 18 50 Czech Rep 2 2 6 21 6 31 13 55 Denmark

• 1

5 2 12 3 17 France 1 2 6 20 7 39 14 61 Germany 1 2 5 14 7 39 13 56 Greece 1 1 1 3 2 6 3 10 Hungary 5 5 6 14 8 32 19 50 Rep of Ireland 1 2 9 32 5 30 16 64 Italy 2 3 6 17 11 47 19 67 Latvia 4 5 10 26 14 68 28 99 Lithuania 6 8 16 38 23 116 46 161 Netherlands 1 2 6 30 10 72 17 104 Poland 31 35 86 178 107 472 223 685 Portugal 4 5 17 53 22 110 43 168 Romania 4 4 12 24 23 90 38 117 Slovak Rep 4 4 10 33 13 70 27 108 Spain 3 3 5 15 8 35 16 53 Sweden

• 2

8 3 19 5 27 Total Other EU 1 1 2 6 19 6 35 13 55 Total EU 75 90 216 562 287 1,375 578 2,026 Total Other EEA 2

• 1

4 1 9 2 13 Total EEA 75 90 217 566 288 1,384 580 2,040 Switzerland

• 1

1 4 1 5 Total 75 90 217 566 289 1,388 581 2,045 Total CTC & WTC (£Million) Number of Individuals (Thousands) Total tax credits (£Million) Working Tax Credits only Child Tax Credits only Child Tax Credits & Working Tax Credits Total tax credits Number of Individuals (Thousands) Total WTC (£Million) Number of Individuals (Thousands) Total CTC (£Million) Number of Individuals (Thousands)

Table Layout – Table B4 (new table – 2014-15 data)

12 | OFFICIAL | Further Statistics on EEA Migrants | Table B4: A Breakdown of tax credit payments for recently arrived non-UK EU/EEA nationals in 2014-15, grouped by country

Belgium

• 1
• 3

1 3 Bulgaria 1 1 1 1 3 9 5 12 Czech Rep 1 1 1 5 2 8 4 13 Denmark

• 1
• 1

France

• 1

2 1 4 2 6 Germany

• 1

2 1 4 1 6 Greece

• 1

1 3 2 4 Hungary 3 3 2 5 4 13 9 22 Rep of Ireland

• 1

6 1 6 3 12 Italy 1 1 2 5 6 23 8 28 Latvia 1 1 2 5 4 15 7 21 Lithuania 2 2 3 6 6 23 11 31 Netherlands

• 1

3 2 9 2 12 Poland 11 11 12 23 26 91 48 125 Portugal 2 2 4 12 8 35 14 49 Romania 2 2 3 5 10 31 16 37 Slovak Rep 1 1 2 6 3 14 6 21 Spain 2 2 2 6 5 18 9 26 Sweden

• 1
• 3

1 4 Total Other EU 1

• 1

1 3 1 4 Total EU 28 28 39 96 83 314 149 438 Total Other EEA 2

• 1
• 2

1 3 Total EEA 28 28 39 97 83 317 150 442 Switzerland

• 1
• 1

Total 28 28 39 97 83 318 150 443 Total CTC & WTC (£Million) Number of Individuals (Thousands) Total tax credits (£Million) Working Tax Credits only Child Tax Credits only Child Tax Credits & Working Tax Credits Total tax credits Number of Individuals (Thousands) Total WTC (£Million) Number of Individuals (Thousands) Total CTC (£Million) Number of Individuals (Thousands)

Table Layout – Table C1 (old format)

13 | OFFICIAL | Further Statistics on EEA Migrants |

Table Layout – Table C1 (2014-15 data)

14 | OFFICIAL | Further Statistics on EEA Migrants |

Table C1: Shares of total income (before and after tax) and Income Tax for percentile groups, 2014-15, for non-UK EEA nationals

Taxpayers Percentage Bottom Bottom Top Top 1% 5% 10% 25% 50% 50% 25% 10% 5% 1% Share of total income before tax Total income before Tax (£bn) All non-UK EEA nationals 0.3% 1.7% 3.5% 9.8% 23.3% 76.7% 57.7% 40.2% 31.2% 17.4% 49.9 0.4% 2.1% 4.3% 11.8% 26.7% 73.3% 53.8% 36.4% 27.5% 15.3% 11.5 Share of total income after tax Total income after Tax (£bn) All non-UK EEA nationals 0.4% 2.0% 4.2% 11.7% 27.0% 73.0% 52.2% 33.6% 24.7% 12.7% 40.5 0.5% 2.5% 5.1% 13.7% 30.3% 69.7% 48.7% 30.6% 21.6% 10.8% 9.7 Total Tax (£bn) All non-UK EEA nationals 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 1.8% 7.5% 92.5% 81.1% 68.4% 58.9% 37.2% 9.4 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 1.9% 7.7% 92.3% 80.9% 67.2% 58.2% 39.0% 1.8 Percentile points for total income before tax Amounts (£) 1 5 10 25 75 90 95 99 Mean All non-UK EEA nationals 10,200 10,900 11,800 14,500 29,300 46,700 70,200 207,000 31,100 10,100 10,600 11,300 13,100 23,100 37,600 53,000 128,000 24,500 Total (All Taxpayers) £bn 50 Percentile Groups (ranged on total income before tax) Non-UK EEA nationals recently arrived in UK since 06/04/2011 Non-UK EEA nationals recently arrived in UK since 06/04/2011 Share of Total Tax Non-UK EEA nationals recently arrived in UK since 06/04/2011 19,500 Non-UK EEA nationals recently arrived in UK since 06/04/2011 16,400

Table Layout – Table D1

15 | OFFICIAL | Further Statistics on EEA Migrants |

Last year’s table (2013-14 data) This year’s table (2014-15 data) Thousands Individuals with Income Tax record for 2014-15 Of which liable to: Higher rate or above Basic Rate

1 Estimates are based on the Survey of Personal Incomes (SPI) 2014-15

192 1,410 Table D1: The Number of non-UK EEA nationals with a Tax Record for 2014-15, and Numbers Liable at Higher Rate and Up to Basic Rate 2,870 Non-UK EEA