Upper Colorado River Basin 2009 Water Year Review and Glimpse into - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Upper Colorado River Basin 2009 Water Year Review and Glimpse into 2010. Will there be drought?

Colorado Climate Center Colorado Climate Center Nolan Doesken Wendy Ryan Rebecca Smith

Presented as part of 2009 Fall Webinar hosted by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center November 10, 2009 10 AM MST

Outline

• Drought Conditions Update
• Water Year 2009 Snowpack Accumulation and

Melt

• Water Year 2009 Temperature Departures
• Water Year 2009 Precipitation Analysis
• Water Year 2009 Precipitation Analysis
• Water Year 2010 Precipitation Tracking
• Water Year 2009 Streamflow Example
• Water Year 2009 Evaporation Comparison
• Water Year 2009 Reservoir Levels and October

Conditions

• Hand off to Klaus for predictive information

Status at beginning of 2009 Water Year

Drought Monitor September 30, 2008

D4 Drought - Exceptional D3 Drought – Extreme D2 Drought - Severe D1 Drought - Moderate D0 Abnormally Dry

Fraction of Colorado in Drought

Based on 3 month SPI

(1890 - September 2009)

0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

tion

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

1890 1892 1895 1897 1900 1902 1905 1907 1910 1912 1915 1917 1920 1922 1925 1927 1930 1932 1935 1937 1940 1942 1945 1947 1950 1952 1955 1957 1960 1962 1965 1967 1970 1972 1975 1977 1980 1982 1985 1987 1990 1992 1995 1997 2000 2002 2005 2007

Year

Fractio

Fraction of Colorado in Drought

Based on 48 month SPI

(1890 - September 2009)

0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 tion 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

1890 1892 1895 1897 1900 1902 1905 1907 1910 1912 1915 1917 1920 1922 1925 1927 1930 1932 1935 1937 1940 1942 1945 1947 1950 1952 1955 1957 1960 1962 1965 1967 1970 1972 1975 1977 1980 1982 1985 1987 1990 1992 1995 1997 2000 2002 2005 2007

Year

Fractio

Location of Selected SNOTEL Stations Showing 2009 Accumulation and Melt

Lake Irene – Elevation 10,700’

Stillwater Creek – Elevation 8,720’

Berthoud Summit – Elevation 11,300’

Middle Fork Camp – Elevation 8,940’

Upper San Juan – Elevation 10,200’

Water Year 2009 - Current

• 2.0

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0

re Departure (deg F)

• 10.0
• 8.0
• 6.0
• 4.0
• 2.0

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Temperature

Eastern Plains Foothills Mountains Western Valleys

PRISM 12-month precipitation as percent of average: average: September 2009

Grand Lake 1 NW 2008-2009 Water Year

25 30 35 40 45 50

ecipitation (Inches)

30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Period of Record Average - 1941 - 2002 2008-2009 Water Year Accumulated

5 10 15 20 25

O C T N O V D E C J A N F E B M A R A P R M A Y J U N J U L A U G S E P O C T N O V D E C J A N F E B M A R A P R M A Y J U N J U L A U G S E P O C T Months Accumulated Prec

Dillon 1E 2008-2009 Water Year

25 30 35 40 45 50

recipitation (Inches) 30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Period of Record Average - 1906 - 2002 2008-2009 Water Year Accumulated

5 10 15 20 25

O C T N O V D E C J A N F E B M A R A P R M A Y J U N J U L A U G S E P O C T N O V D E C J A N F E B M A R A P R M A Y J U N J U L A U G S E P O C T

Months

Accumulated Prec

Montrose #2 2008-2009 Water Year

25 30 35 40 45 50

ecipitation (Inches)

30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Period of Record Average - 1893- 2002 2008-2009 Water Year Accumulated

5 10 15 20 25

O C T N O V D E C J A N F E B M A R A P R M A Y J U N J U L A U G S E P O C T N O V D E C J A N F E B M A R A P R M A Y J U N J U L A U G S E P O C T Months Accumulated Prec

Mesa Verde NP 2008-2009 Water Year

30 35 40 45 50

ipitation (Inches)

30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Period of Record Average - 1893- 2002 2009 Water Year Accumulated

5 10 15 20 25

O C T N O V D E C J A N F E B M A R A P R M A Y J U N J U L A U G S E P O C T N O V D E C J A N F E B M A R A P R M A Y J U N J U L A U G S E P O C T Months

Accumulated Precipi

Cheyenne Wells 2008-2009 Water Year

30 35 40 45 50

ipitation (Inches)

30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Period of Record Average - 1971 - 2002 2008-2009 Water Year

5 10 15 20 25

OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT Months Accumulated Precip

Boulder 2008 - 2009 Water Year

25 30 35 40 45 50

cipitation (inches)

2008-2009 Water Year 30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Period of Record Average - 1894-2002

5 10 15 20 25

OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT Months Accumulated Preci

Colorado River below Baker Gulch Near Grand Lake

300 400 500 600 rge (cfs) WY 2009- current Discharge (cfs) Historic Mean Discharge (cfs) 100 200 300

9/9/2008 10/29/2008 12/18/2008 2/6/2009 3/28/2009 5/17/2009 7/6/2009 8/25/2009 10/14/2009 12/3/2009

Date Discharge

October Total Flow Colorado River Below Baker Gulch (cfs)

50 60 70 80 90 harge (cfs) 10 20 30 40 1 9 5 3 1 9 5 5 1 9 5 7 1 9 5 9 1 9 6 1 1 9 6 3 1 9 6 5 1 9 6 7 1 9 6 9 1 9 7 1 1 9 7 3 1 9 7 5 1 9 7 7 1 9 7 9 1 9 8 1 1 9 8 3 1 9 8 5 1 9 8 7 1 9 8 9 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 9 2 1 2 3 2 5 2 7 2 9 Year Discha

Accumulated Pan Evaporation 2009 Growing Season Compared to Normal: Grand Junction 6ESE and Fort Collins

40 50 60 ration (in)

Grand Junction 6ESE Average Evaporation Grand Junction 6ESE 2009 Evaporation Fort Collins Average Evaporation Fort Collins 2009 Evaporation

10 20 30 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Month Pan Evaporati

Summary

• 2009 good year for water in most areas of

Colorado -- Excellent growing season precipitation east of the mountains.

• Large early snowmelt (May), secondary late

June peak flows especially northern basins June peak flows especially northern basins

• Reservoirs filled early -- ended the Water Year

near average in most areas

• W. Colorado tending drier than average with

noticeably below average summer and early autumn 2009 precipitation, especially lower

• elevations. Need to keep a close eye on SW

Colorado for developing drought conditions.