Update Carl Daley 6 April 2017 SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶
update
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

Update Carl Daley 6 April 2017 SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

May 29, 2023 35 likes •360 views

1 Committee for Ballarat 1 Electricity and Gas Market Update Carl Daley 6 April 2017 SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd Agenda 2 WHAT IS GOING HOW DID THIS WHAT CAN WE ON? HAPPEN DO ABOUT IT? SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd Agenda 3 WHAT

slide-1
SLIDE 1

SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd

1 1

Committee for Ballarat

Electricity and Gas Market Update

6 April 2017 Carl Daley

slide-2
SLIDE 2

SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd

2

Agenda

WHAT IS GOING ON? HOW DID THIS HAPPEN WHAT CAN WE DO ABOUT IT?

slide-3
SLIDE 3

SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd

3

Agenda

WHAT IS GOING ON? HOW DID THIS HAPPEN WHAT CAN WE DO ABOUT IT?

slide-4
SLIDE 4

SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd

4

Future power prices have taken off …

slide-5
SLIDE 5

SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd

5

and other States too!

slide-6
SLIDE 6

SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd

6

Power spot prices explained …

slide-7
SLIDE 7

SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd

7

Power spot prices have taken off …

Records …

  • Highest Q1 average price on record in

Queensland, NSW and Victoria

  • Highest March average price in Victoria

and NSW on record

  • Second highest March and Q1 average

price for SA on record

  • Second highest Tasmanian March and

Q1 average price on record, only exceeded by last year when the Basslink failed

slide-8
SLIDE 8

SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd

8

Gas spot prices have taken off …

slide-9
SLIDE 9

SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd

9

Victorian gas price history …

slide-10
SLIDE 10

SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd

10

Lights are going out ( or threatening) …

SA System Black NSW sheds Tomago smelter to avoid load shedding

slide-11
SLIDE 11

SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd

11

Record Energy Policies in 3 days 9th

AEMO warns of blackouts as gas runs out

NSW, Vic and SA face power shortages in the next two years that may require LNG exports to be diverted to maintain power reliability standards, according to AEMO following dramatic cut to domestic gas production forecasts.

10th AEMO releases its Medium

Term Outlook

AEMO’s latest outlook predicts gas shortages impacting power generation as early as winter 2017, causing winter forward prices to jump.

14th SA Energy Minister to be

given more control in state's $500m plan to secure future

14th Victorian Government to

invest extra $20m in large-scale energy storage

An extra $20m will be invested in Victoria's large-scale energy storage, the State Government says, as it works to address the state's increasing energy needs.

15th Crisis meeting on gas as

Prime Minister fears winter chaos

Malcolm Turnbull met with gas company executives to help secure manufacturing jobs and provide low-cost heating for families by bolstering domestic supply.

16th Snowy Hydro scheme

boosted by 2,000MW costing $2bn

The Federal Government announced a $2bn intervention in Australia's electricity supply debate, by expanding the Snowy Mountains hydro scheme using pump storage by 2,000MW.

March 2017

10 9 14 15 16 15

The plan includes building, owning and

  • perating a $360m, 250MW gas-fired plant.

The private sector would also build Australia's largest battery storage (100MW) before next summer.

slide-12
SLIDE 12

SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd

12

Questions ?

slide-13
SLIDE 13

SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd

13

Agenda

WHAT IS GOING ON? HOW DID THIS HAPPEN WHAT CAN WE DO ABOUT IT?

slide-14
SLIDE 14

SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd

14

Base supply has tightened …

5,700MW closed since 2012

  

Recent closures

slide-15
SLIDE 15

SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd

15

Hazelwood Power Station closure …

Hazelwood generation March 2017 … the end of an era

slide-16
SLIDE 16

SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd

16

Demand has increased … Qld LNG driven

slide-17
SLIDE 17

SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd

17

NSW demand highest since 2011

slide-18
SLIDE 18

SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd

18

AGL Vic has reduced low price generation

slide-19
SLIDE 19

SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd

19

Snowy Vic has reduced low price generation

slide-20
SLIDE 20

SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd

20

Hydro Tasmania has reduced low price generation

slide-21
SLIDE 21

SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd

21

Substantial fuel switch across the NEM

Significantly less hydro, and gas running more often

slide-22
SLIDE 22

SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd

22

Domestic gas is being diverted to LNG

Santos reported as acquiring 20%

  • f domestic gas

and diverting for LNG exports

slide-23
SLIDE 23

SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd

23

Same demand, prices much higher

Q1 2017 vs Q1 2016

slide-24
SLIDE 24

SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd

24

Questions ?

slide-25
SLIDE 25

SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd

25

Agenda

WHAT IS GOING ON? HOW DID THIS HAPPEN WHAT CAN WE DO ABOUT IT?

slide-26
SLIDE 26

SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd

26

Procurement Australia

  • For customers with contract

expiring in 2017

  • May be able to be rolled into a

lower price agreement struck in late 2015

  • Contact Carl Daley for further

information

slide-27
SLIDE 27

SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd

27

Behind-the-meter solutions

  • Be careful about ‘promises’ from sellers
  • Technology (and cost) is moving fast
slide-28
SLIDE 28

SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd

28

Knowledge Based Strategy

slide-29
SLIDE 29

SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd

29

slide-30
SLIDE 30

SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd

30

Agenda

WHAT IS GOING ON? HOW DID THIS HAPPEN WHAT CAN WE DO ABOUT IT?

slide-31
SLIDE 31

SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd

31

Any further questions?

slide-32
SLIDE 32

SavvyPlus Consulting Pty Ltd

32 32

Thank you

Carl Daley Managing Director SavvyPlus Consulting carl.daley@savvyplus.com.au 03 9081 0480