Update from the actuary Nottinghamshire Pension Fund AGM 4 October - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

update from the actuary
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

Update from the actuary Nottinghamshire Pension Fund AGM 4 October - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Update from the actuary Nottinghamshire Pension Fund AGM 4 October 2018 BARRY MCKAY FFA ASSOCIATE & ACTUARY ROSS ANDERSON FFA ASSOCIATE & ACTUARY Agenda Purpose of valuations Short 2016 re-cap Current funding update


slide-1
SLIDE 1

Update from the actuary

Nottinghamshire Pension Fund AGM 4 October 2018

BARRY MCKAY FFA ASSOCIATE & ACTUARY ROSS ANDERSON FFA ASSOCIATE & ACTUARY

slide-2
SLIDE 2 NOTTINGHAMSHIRE PENSION FUND AGM 2018 ACTUARIAL UPDATE

Agenda

  • Purpose of valuations
  • Short 2016 re-cap
  • Current funding update
  • 2019 valuation
slide-3
SLIDE 3

Purpose of valuations

slide-4
SLIDE 4 NOTTINGHAMSHIRE PENSION FUND AGM 2018 ACTUARIAL UPDATE

Valuations - recap

  • Accumulation of

contributions and investment returns less benefits paid

Assets

  • How much are they

worth?

Valuation

4
  • Future benefits paid

from the Fund (pensions, lump sums, transfer values)

Liabilities

  • How much do we need

now to pay future benefits? (Contribution rate)

Valuation Value of liabilities less value of assets Deficit Value of assets / value of liabilities Funding Level

slide-5
SLIDE 5 NOTTINGHAMSHIRE PENSION FUND AGM 2018 ACTUARIAL UPDATE

Purpose of valuations

Accounting (IAS19/FRS102)

To show cost/liabilities in accounts Assumptions are largely prescribed Liabilities/ costs much higher and more volatile

Ongoing triennial funding valuation

To set future contributions Actuary agrees assumptions with Fund Liabilities/costs much lower and more stable

slide-6
SLIDE 6

Short 2016 valuation re-cap

slide-7
SLIDE 7 NOTTINGHAMSHIRE PENSION FUND AGM 2018 ACTUARIAL UPDATE

Triennial funding valuations

  • to certify levels of employer contributions to secure

the solvency of the Fund and the long term cost efficiency of the Scheme

Set out in LGPS Regulations

  • As determined by administering authority
  • With some actuarial help!

Also have regard to the Funding Strategy Statement

  • Function of Funding Model / investment strategy
  • Spreading and stepping

Actuary to “have regard to desirability of maintaining as nearly constant a (primary) contribution rate as possible”

  • Statutory/non statutory bodies
  • Open or closed admission agreements
  • Look at employer financial strength (“covenant”)

Different approaches possible for different employer types

7
slide-8
SLIDE 8 NOTTINGHAMSHIRE PENSION FUND AGM 2018 ACTUARIAL UPDATE

Whole Fund results

Past service funding position 31 March 2016 £m Smoothed asset value 4,028 Past service liabilities Actives 1,612 Deferred pensioners 964 Pensioners 2,073 Total 4,649 Surplus (Deficit) (621) Funding level 87% Primary rate % of payroll Total future service rate 20.8% less employee contribution rate (6.3%) Total primary rate 14.5%

Assets were 87% of the amount required to cover the cost of accrued benefits Average employer cost of benefits accruing in year after the valuation date is 14.5% of payroll

slide-9
SLIDE 9 NOTTINGHAMSHIRE PENSION FUND AGM 2018 ACTUARIAL UPDATE

Section 13

“Section 13 to provide for an independent review (by GAD) of the valuation and employer contribution rates to check that they are appropriate and requires remedial action to be taken where that review identifies a problem.”

Government Actuary: LGPS in better position after funds make ‘significant’ progress – Professional Pensions 28 September 2018 All green flags for Nottinghamshire Pension Fund!

slide-10
SLIDE 10

Current funding update

slide-11
SLIDE 11 NOTTINGHAMSHIRE PENSION FUND AGM 2018 ACTUARIAL UPDATE 11

90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 % growth since 2016 valuation

Assets

Asset projection based on 2016 valuation assumption

slide-12
SLIDE 12 NOTTINGHAMSHIRE PENSION FUND AGM 2018 ACTUARIAL UPDATE 12

90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 % growth since 2016 valuation

Assets

Asset projection based on 2016 valuation assumption Equities

slide-13
SLIDE 13 NOTTINGHAMSHIRE PENSION FUND AGM 2018 ACTUARIAL UPDATE 13

90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 % growth since 2016 valuation

Assets

Asset projection based on 2016 valuation assumption Equities Gilts

slide-14
SLIDE 14 NOTTINGHAMSHIRE PENSION FUND AGM 2018 ACTUARIAL UPDATE 14

90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 % growth since 2016 valuation

Assets

Asset projection based on 2016 valuation assumption Equities Gilts Property

slide-15
SLIDE 15 NOTTINGHAMSHIRE PENSION FUND AGM 2018 ACTUARIAL UPDATE

Assets

15

90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 % growth since 2016 valuation

Assets

Asset projection based on 2016 valuation assumption Equities Gilts Property Actual assets

slide-16
SLIDE 16 NOTTINGHAMSHIRE PENSION FUND AGM 2018 ACTUARIAL UPDATE 16

Change in real discount rates - liabilities

2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0%

Change in real discount rate

Discount Rate Inflation Real discount rate

slide-17
SLIDE 17 NOTTINGHAMSHIRE PENSION FUND AGM 2018 ACTUARIAL UPDATE

Funding levels – the good news….

17

80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 105% 110%

Funding Level

Smoothed Unsmoothed

slide-18
SLIDE 18 NOTTINGHAMSHIRE PENSION FUND AGM 2018 ACTUARIAL UPDATE

Future service costs – less good news…….

18

13.5% 14.0% 14.5% 15.0% 15.5% 16.0% 16.5% 17.0%

Future service cost

Primary rate

slide-19
SLIDE 19 NOTTINGHAMSHIRE PENSION FUND AGM 2018 ACTUARIAL UPDATE

So……..

Strong asset returns since 2016

  • Great if you held the assets at 2016
  • Not so great if you still have some to buy…

Lower expected returns (above inflation) going forward

  • Offsets some of the asset outperformance to date
  • Still need to buy new assets for new liabilities
  • More expensive than before so more cash required

Looking forward to 2019 valuation?

  • Higher cost of future accrual
  • Improved funding level due to good asset returns
  • Aiming for stability of contributions

However!

  • Still plenty of time for things to change
  • We live in an uncertain world
  • Our model designed to help withstand short-term “noise”
19
slide-20
SLIDE 20 NOTTINGHAMSHIRE PENSION FUND AGM 2018 ACTUARIAL UPDATE

How to plan for results

Tricky to provide strong indication of any particular employer’s results at this stage

  • Assumptions not agreed yet
  • Employer circumstances different from Fund as a whole

What do we know?

  • Returns have been really good
  • Lower expected returns (above inflation) going forward
  • Although, potential for things to change between now and 31 March

What we know that we don’t know

  • Assumptions due to be agreed in September 2019
  • Individual employer experience
  • Individual funding strategy and flexibilities
  • Won’t know until individual results available in October/November 2019

What we don’t know that we don’t know

20
slide-21
SLIDE 21 NOTTINGHAMSHIRE PENSION FUND AGM 2018 ACTUARIAL UPDATE

We can help!

21

Online ongoing funding tracker Works in real time Can track accounting deficit too

slide-22
SLIDE 22

2019 valuation

slide-23
SLIDE 23 NOTTINGHAMSHIRE PENSION FUND AGM 2018 ACTUARIAL UPDATE 23

2019 or 2020?

slide-24
SLIDE 24 NOTTINGHAMSHIRE PENSION FUND AGM 2018 ACTUARIAL UPDATE

Why is accurate valuation data so important?

Contribution rates Section 13 conclusions

Assets and cashflows Covenant information Membership extracts

slide-25
SLIDE 25 NOTTINGHAMSHIRE PENSION FUND AGM 2018 ACTUARIAL UPDATE

Timetable – key milestones

25

October 2019

Reporting of results for major employers (mid-month) Reporting of results for other employers (end-month)

September 2019

Whole Fund results and assumptions

April 2019

“Early indications” general briefing note 31 March 2019 end-of-year returns due

slide-26
SLIDE 26 NOTTINGHAMSHIRE PENSION FUND AGM 2018 ACTUARIAL UPDATE

Timetable – key milestones

26

March 2019

Results finalised & valuation report signed off Contributions start 1 April 2020

February 2019

Employer consultation period ends

November 2019

Results released to employers for consultation

slide-27
SLIDE 27

Questions