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Unlockin king g the Opportu tunities ities in the Hudson

• n Valley

Unlockin king g the Opportu tunities ities in the Hudson

• n Valley

Unlockin king g the Opportu tunities ities in the Hudson

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County Population

Columbia 63,096 Dutchess 297,498 Greene 49,221 Orange 372,813 Putnam 99,710 Rockland 311,687 Sullivan 77,547 Ulster 182,493 Westchester 949,113 Total Population: 2,403,168

Hudson Valley New York State

Unlockin king g the Opportu tunities ities in the Hudson

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Hudson Valley New York State

 9 Counties

 137 Towns

 123 School Districts

 13 Cities  88 Villages

 5,835 square miles

Unlockin king g the Opportu tunities ities in the Hudson

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• Changing Real Estate Market
• Declining Federal and State Funding
• High Demand for Rental Housing
• Shifting Demographics
• “Underwater”

Unlockin king g the Opportu tunities ities in the Hudson

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Unlockin king g the Opportu tunities ities in the Hudson

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Existing Home Sales:

• Increase of home sale by 8% - July 2012 to August 2012
• Increase of home sales by 10% - August 2011 to August 2012
• 30-year mortgage rates at a record low of 3.49%
• Increase in existing homes sales price of 10.2% from August

2011 to August 2012 to $188,700

• Median Days on Market down from 92 days to 70 days – a

23.9% decline year-over-year

• Year-over-year sales in the Northeast jumped by 15.2%

Positive signs of Recovery

Source: National Association of Realtors

Unlockin king g the Opportu tunities ities in the Hudson

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Unemployment, Debt and Spending:

• National Unemployment has dropped by 1% - August 2011 to

August 2012 - now at 8.1%

• Household debt fell by .5% in Q2 2012
• Mortgage delinquency rates and debt on cars & credit cards

all declined in Q2 2012

• 12% decline in new foreclosure listed on credit reports Q1 to

Q2 of this year – lowest level since 2007

• Department of Commerce – “cooling”

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, US Bureau of Labor

Positive signs of Recovery

Unlockin king g the Opportu tunities ities in the Hudson

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Geographic Area

Median Sales 2004 Median Sales 2005 Median Sales 2006 Median Sales 2007 Median Sales 2008 Median Sales 2009 Median Sales 2010 Median Sales 2011 % change from Highest Annual Median to 2011

Columbia County

$215,000 $237,000 $232,250 $240,000 $222,500 $199,950 $199,950 $200,000

• 16.67%

Dutchess County

$300,000 $342,000 $350,000 $335,000 $310,000 $275,000 $270,000 $250,000

• 28.57%

Greene County

$139,000 $164,000 $174,500 $172,750 $180,000 $165,000 $160,000 $153,000

• 15.00%

Orange County

$285,000 $317,600 $320,000 $322,000 $290,000 $260,000 $255,000 $250,000

• 22.36%

Putnam County

$385,000 $410,000 $410,000 $400,000 $373,000 $335,000 $315,000 $325,000

• 20.73%

Rockland County

$445,000 $498,000 $495,000 $495,000 $450,000 $420,000 $415,000 $390,000

• 21.69%

Sullivan County

$135,000 $159,000 $170,330 $174,000 $149,450 $125,000 $125,000 $134,000

• 22.99%

Ulster County

$215,000 $250,000 $250,000 $255,000 $240,000 $209,000 $214,000 $199,000

• 21.96%

Westchester County

$640,000 $670,000 $669,000 $685,000 $650,000 $580,000 $630,000 $600,000

• 12.41%

Unlockin king g the Opportu tunities ities in the Hudson

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Geographic Area Q1 Median Sales 2011 Q1 Median Sales 2012 % change Q1: '11-'12 Q2 Median Sales 2011 Q2 Median Sales 2012 % change Q2: '11-'12 Columbia County $208,000 $178,000

• 14.42%

$181,500 $185,000 1.93% Dutchess County $252,000 $239,250

• 5.06%

$247,250 $240,000

• 2.93%

Greene County $164,950 $140,500

• 14.82%

$159,900 $158,501

• 0.87%

Orange County $266,634 $250,000

• 6.24%

$246,750 $242,300

• 1.80%

Putnam County $349,000 $277,500

• 20.49%

$320,000 $299,500

• 6.41%

Rockland County $389,000 $372,000

• 4.37%

$385,000 $377,000

• 2.08%

Sullivan County $125,000 $100,000

• 20.00%

$120,000 $115,000

• 4.17%

Ulster County $202,500 $173,000

• 14.57%

$189,000 $203,500 7.67% Westchester County $552,500 $505,500

• 8.51%

$622,750 $619,000

• 0.60%

…appears to be bottoming out

Unlockin king g the Opportu tunities ities in the Hudson

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Source: CoreLogic Loan Performance and Lender Processing Services Mortgages Performance data

Foreclosures:

• 12% of August 2012 National sales
• Average Discount of 19%

Short Sales:

• 10% of August 2012 National sales
• Average Discount of 13%

Total of 22% of total sales for August 2012 Foreclosures and Short Sales:

• 31% of the total national sales August 2011

Unlockin king g the Opportu tunities ities in the Hudson

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Source: CoreLogic Loan Performance and Lender Processing Services Mortgages Performance data

3.2% 4.4% 4.4% 5.3% 3.6% 3.5% 5.1% 4.8% 2.6% 3.2% 4.2% 4.0% 5.0% 3.5% 3.2% 4.5% 4.4% 2.4%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0%

Mar-11 Mar-12

% of Mortgages 90 Days Delinquent

% of Mortgages in Foreclosure

Unlockin king g the Opportu tunities ities in the Hudson

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Source: CoreLogic Loan Performance and Lender Processing Services Mortgages Performance data

3.6% 4.9% 5.4% 6.5% 4.2% 5.1% 7.9% 6.4% 3.4% 4.6% 6.6% 7.4% 8.4% 5.6% 6.3% 10.7% 8.3% 4.2%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% Mar-11 Mar-12

Foreclosures

Unlockin king g the Opportu tunities ities in the Hudson

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Source: RealtyTrac

Geographic Area July 2012 August 2012 % change Columbia County

93 109 17.20%

Dutchess County

220 283 28.64%

Greene County

70 71 1.43%

Orange County

1950 1992 2.15%

Putnam County

622 627 0.80%

Rockland County

1719 1822 5.99%

Sullivan County

141 143 1.42%

Ulster County

149 160 7.38%

Westchester County

3142 3265 3.91%

Hudson Valley Total

8106 8472 4.52%

Unlockin king g the Opportu tunities ities in the Hudson

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Existing Programs:

• Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives
• Home Affordable Refinance Program
• Home Affordable Modification Program
• Second Lien Modification Program
• Home Affordable Unemployment Program

Unlockin king g the Opportu tunities ities in the Hudson

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Three Essential Questions:

• 1. Who wants to buy?
• 2. Where do they want it?
• 3. What will it look like?

Unlockin king g the Opportu tunities ities in the Hudson

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• Defined as the generation of people born

between 1978 and 2000

• 76 million people
• 2nd largest generation after the Baby Boomers
• Faced with many obstacles
• Home ownership demands differ

Unlockin king g the Opportu tunities ities in the Hudson

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• Projected growth from 333,145 to 477,825 by 2030 (65+)
• Represents a 43.4% increase or nearly 145,000 people
• Orange County – 74% increase or just over 30,000 people
• Caution: 2030 to 2040 = .3% increase
• Plan accordingly
• 7,800 existing units in the Mid Hudson Counties with a

current population of 120,000 in the 65+ age cohort

• Projected growth in the Mid Hudson > 192,000 by 2030

Enough Units?

Unlockin king g the Opportu tunities ities in the Hudson

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• Senior Communities should include easy access to medical

treatment, cultural activities, transportation and shopping

• Consider senior housing on college campuses
• Create multi-generational housing
• Increase subsidies in order to meet the demand for affordable

homes

• Streamline the approval process for developers – so they may

react to the market faster

• Increase supportive services for “Aging in Place”
• Develop smaller, energy efficient homes with little or no

maintenance

Unlockin king g the Opportu tunities ities in the Hudson

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NYS Unified Funding:

• 2007 = 36.7% Capital Projects
• 2011 = 11.2% Capital Projects

Direct Federal Allocations of CDBG and HOME

Program and Geography 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 % change 2008 to 2012 CDBG (H.V.) $22,325,028 $22,797,009 $24,507,264 $20,524,939 $17,415,609

• 21.99%

HOME (H.V.) $8,452,173 $9,426,074 $9,333,574 $8,273,676 $4,545,384

• 46.22%

CDBG (NYS) $47,471,352 $48,376,971 $52,570,558 $44,032,414 $40,642,169

• 14.38%

HOME (NYS) $34,340,639 $38,644,399 $38,871,418 $34,106,424 $19,238,101

• 43.97%

Unlockin king g the Opportu tunities ities in the Hudson

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• Pendell Commons
• Ellenville Senior Housing
• Woodstock Commons
• Murphy Manor Apartments

$57.5 million local investment 295 Homes

Unlockin king g the Opportu tunities ities in the Hudson

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Housing Creates Jobs:

• Architects, engineering, real estate,

environmental, legal, building trades, suppliers, lending, property management and maintenance

• Local shops, pharmacies, restaurants and
• ther service industries

Unlockin king g the Opportu tunities ities in the Hudson

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Category:

Columbia Dutchess Greene Orange Putnam Rockland Sullivan Ulster Westchester

2BR Fair Market Rents (FMR)

$834 $1,189 $785 $1,189 $1,424 $1,424 $888 $1,098 $1,580

Hourly Living Wage Rate to Afford 2BR FMR

$16.04 $22.87 $15.10 $22.87 $27.38 $27.38 $17.08 $21.12 $30.38

Annual Living Wage Rate needed to afford 2BR FMR (Wage Rate x 2080 hours)

$33,360 $47,560 $31,400 $47,560 $56,960 $56,960 $35,520 $43,920 $63,200

Estimated Mean Renters Hourly Wage Rate

$10.48 $12.56 $10.45 $9.52 $9.96 $12.10 $8.87 $9.90 $17.68

Rent Affordable at the Mean Renters Hourly Wage Rate

$545 $668 $486 $471 $559 $571 $471 $493 $861

Difference between FMR and Affordable Rent at the Mean Renters Wage Rate

• $289
• $536
• $242
• $694
• $906
• $795
• $427
• $583
• $661

Weekly Hours Needed at Renters Mean Hourly Wage to Afford 2BR FMR

61 73 58 96 110 91 77 85 69

% of Renters unable to Afford 2BR FMR

46% 57% 50% 58% 61% 62% 57% 57% 62%

Source: National Low Income Housing Coalition – Out of Reach 2012

Unlockin king g the Opportu tunities ities in the Hudson

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• NPC established in 1977
• RPC established in 1980
• Primary vehicle for the administration of

NYS Housing Programs such as:

• Restore , HOME, AHC Homeownership,

Foreclosure Counseling, ACCESS to Home and Main Street

Thank You

Unlockin king g the Opportu tunities ities in the Hudson

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by searching Hudson Valley Pattern for Progress