UMS Enrollment UMA UMaine Predicted Influence of External Factors - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Jan 28, 2023 161 likes •295 views

UMS Enrollment UMA UMaine Predicted Influence of External Factors UMF UMFK UMM UMPI USM Outlook External Factors Prior Year High School Grauates Prior Year Maine CPI VS Undergraduate Enrollment VS Undergraduate Enrollment 680,000

SLIDE 1

UMA UMaine UMF UMFK UMM UMPI USM

UMS Enrollment

Predicted Influence of External Factors

SLIDE 2

Outlook – External Factors

195.0 200.0 205.0 210.0 215.0 220.0 225.0 230.0 235.0 240.0 560,000 580,000 600,000 620,000 640,000 660,000 680,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Prior Year Maine CPI VS Undergraduate Enrollment

Undergraduate PY_ME_CPI 10,000 10,500 11,000 11,500 12,000 12,500 13,000 13,500 14,000 14,500 15,000 560,000 580,000 600,000 620,000 640,000 660,000 680,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Prior Year High School Grauates VS Undergraduate Enrollment

Undergraduate PY HS GRAD 44,000 46,000 48,000 50,000 52,000 54,000 56,000 58,000 60,000 560,000 580,000 600,000 620,000 640,000 660,000 680,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Maine GDP VS Undergraduate Enrollment

Undergraduate Maine GDP

Do the external factors used by other Universities fit UMS Enrollment Data. The Answer is: Very Closely

SLIDE 3

Outlook – Additional Consideration

600,000 620,000 640,000 660,000 680,000 700,000 720,000 740,000

50,000,000

100,000,000 150,000,000 200,000,000 250,000,000 300,000,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Weighted and Unweighted Billed Credit Hours

Weighted in tuition dollars

Weighted 2017 Value UnWeighted 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 2008 2013 2018 2023 MAINE CPI YEARS

Maine CPI

Actual Rob's Forecast CEFC

SLIDE 4

Outlook – Additional Consideration

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2008 2013 2018 2023

Number of HS Graduates Thousands Years

Maine Prior Year High School Graduation Count

High School Prediction 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Full Year Headcount Years Source: IPEDS

Maine Market Share Four Year and Above

UMS Competition 14.187 13.174 8076 57% 57% 8179 62% 62% 67% 72% 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Thousands

College-Going in the Fall Semester after High School Graduation in Maine

Total in the class Enrolled in college Maine colllege College outside Maine

DOE & Mitchell Institute: https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/1238800/college-going-in-maine-july-2014-data-brief.pdf DOE & Mitchell Institute

SLIDE 5

Outlook – Impact of External Factors

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Credit Hours Thousands Years

Graduate Billed Credit Hours

Graduate Prediction 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Credit Hours Thousands Years

Undergraduate Billed Credit Hours

Undergraduate Prediction

Data doesn’t define destiny: New actions/programs can break trends. Model Predicts -7% Reduction in Billed Credit Hours

SLIDE 6

Outlook – USM

50 100 150 200 2008 2013 2018 2023

Credit Hours Thousands Years

In-State Undergraduate Billed Credit Hours

Undergraduate Prediction 5 10 15 20 25 2008 2013 2018 2023

Credit Hours Thousands Years

Out of State Undergraduate Billed Credit Hours

Undergraduate Prediction Alternate 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2008 2013 2018 2023

Credit Hours Thousands Years

In-State Graduate Billed Credit Hours

Graduate Prediction 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2008 2013 2018 2023

Credit Hours Thousands Years

Out of State Graduate Billed Credit Hours

Graduate Prediction 1,700 1,750 1,800 1,850 1,900 1,950 2,000 2008 2013 2018 2023

Graduates Years

UMS High School Feeder PY Graduate Count

HS Feeder Prediction

High S School

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Feeders U Used: Bonny Eagle High School Deering High School Gorham High School Portland High School Sanford High School Scarborough High School Thornton Academy Windham High School

SLIDE 7

Outlook – UMPI

High S School

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Feeders U Used: Ashland District School Caribou High School Central Aroostook Jr-Sr H S Fort Fairfield Middle/High School Hodgdon Middle/High School Houlton High School Limestone Community School ME Sch of Science & Mathematics Presque Isle High School So Aroostook School Washburn District High School

5 10 15 20 25 30 2008 2013 2018 2023

Credit Hours Thousands Years

In-State Undergraduate Billed Credit Hours

Undergraduate Prediction Alternate 2 4 6 8 10 12 2008 2013 2018 2023

Credit Hours Thousands Years

Out of State Undergraduate Billed Credit Hours

Undergraduate Prediction Alternate 100 200 300 400 500 600 2008 2013 2018 2023

Graduates Years

Presque Isle High School Feeders Prior Year Graduaton Count

HS Feeders Prediction

SLIDE 8

Outlook – UM

50 100 150 200 250 2008 2013 2018 2023

Credit Hours Thousands Years

In-State Undergraduate Billed Credit Hours

Undergraduate Prediction 20 40 60 80 100 120 2008 2013 2018 2023

Credit Hours Thousands Years

Out of State Undergraduate Billed Credit Hours

Undergraduate Prediction 5 10 15 20 25 2008 2013 2018 2023

Credit Hours Thousands Years

In-State Graduate Billed Credit Hours

Graduate Prediction 2 4 6 8 10 2008 2013 2018 2023

Credit Hours Thousands Years

Out of State Graduate Billed Credit Hours

Graduate Prediction

High S School

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Feeders U Used: Bonny Eagle High School Deering High School Gorham High School Portland High School Sanford High School Scarborough High School Thornton Academy Windham High School

1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 2008 2013 2018 2023

Graduates Years

UM High School Feeders Prior Year Graduate Count

HS Graduates Prediction

SLIDE 9

Outlook – UMFK

High S School

ol Fe

Feeders U Used: Caribou High School Hermon High School Houlton High School Leavitt Area High School Lewiston High School Madawaska Middle/High School Presque Isle High School Wisdom Middle High School

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2008 2013 2018 2023

Credit Hours Thousands Years

In-State Undergraduate Billed Credit Hours

Undergraduate Prediction 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2008 2013 2018 2023

Credit Hours Thousands Years

Out of State Undergraduate Billed Credit Hours

Undergraduate Prediction Alternate 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 2008 2013 2018 2023

Graduates Years

Fort Kent High School Feeders Prior Year Graduate Count

Graduates Prediction

SLIDE 10

Outlook – UMA

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2008 2013 2018 2023

Credit Hours Thousands Years

In-State Undergraduate Billed Credit Hours

Undergraduate Prediction 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2008 2013 2018 2023

Graduates Years

Augusta High School Feeders Prior Year Graduate Count

Graduates Prediction

High S School

ol Fe

Feeders U Used: Bangor High School Camden Hills Regional Erskine Academy Gardiner Area High School Maranacook Community High Medomak Valley High School Messalonskee High School Oxford Hills Comprehensive H S

1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 2008 2013 2018 2023

Credit Hours Thousands Years

Out of State Undergraduate Billed Credit Hours

Undergraduate Prediction

SLIDE 11

Outlook – UMF

High S School

ol Fe

Feeders U Used: Erskine Academy Lawrence High School Lewiston High School Messalonskee High School Mt Abram Regional High School Mt Blue High School Oxford Hills Comprehensive H S Poland Regional H S Skowhegan Area High School Thornton Academy

20 30 40 50 60 2008 2013 2018 2023

Credit Hours Thousands Years

In-State Undergraduate Billed Credit Hours

Undergraduate Prediction

4 6 8 10 12 14 2008 2013 2018 2023

Credit Hours Thousands Years

Out of State Undergraduate Billed Credit Hours

Undergraduate Prediction

1 2 2 3 3 4 4 2008 2013 2018 2023

Credit Hours Thousands Years

In-State Graduate Billed Credit Hours

Graduate Prediction

1 2 2 3 2008 2013 2018 2023

HS Graduates Thousands Years

UMF High School Feeder PY Graduation Count

Feeder HS Prediction

SLIDE 12

Outlook – UMM

High S School

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Feeders U Used: Calais Middle/High School Jonesport-Beals High School Machias Memorial High School Narraguagus High School Shead High School Sumner Memorial High School Washington Academy Woodland Jr-Sr High School

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2008 2013 2018 2023

Credit Hours Thousands Years

In-State Undergraduate Billed Credit Hours

Undergraduate Prediction 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 2008 2013 2018 2023

Credit Hours Thousands Years

Out of State Undergraduate Billed Credit Hours

Undergraduate Prediction Alternate 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2008 2013 2018 2023

Graduates Years

Machias High School Feeders Prior Year Graduate Count

Graduates Prediction