U.S. Chamber of Commerce 2018 Midterms: Now What? Senate: - - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jennings Imel Executive Director, Western Region U.S. Chamber of Commerce

2018 Midterms: Now What?

Senate:

• Majority Leader Mitch McConnell
• Assistant Leader John Thune
• Conference Chairman John Barrasso
• Key Departures: Hatch, McCain (Kyl), Flake, Corker
• Key Additions: Romney, Rosen, Sinema, McSally

House:

• Speaker Nancy Pelosi
• Majority Leader Steny Hoyer; Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy
• Majority Whip James Clyburn; Minority Whip Steve Scalise
• Key Takeaways: Loss of centrist R’s in urban/suburban areas

(Dems won 22/25 seats won by Clinton); Incoming D’s split between centrists and progressives

• 21% of the House is new (90 freshmen)

Big Changes in the House

Committee Previous GOP Chair New Dem Chair

Appropriations Rodney Frelinghuysen (89%) Nita Lowey (37%) Financial Services Jeb Hensarling (85%) Maxine Waters (27%) Judiciary Bob Goodlatte (91%) Jerry Nadler (26%) Energy & Commerce Greg Walden (94%) Frank Pallone (34%) Ways & Means Kevin Brady (93%) Richard Neal (35%) Transportation/Infrastructure Bill Shuster (93%) Peter DeFazio (32%) Oversight Trey Gowdy (82%) Elijah Cummings (34%) Education & Workforce Virginia Foxx (82%) Bobby Scott (34%) Natural Resources Rob Bishop (86%) Raul Grijalva (28%) Small Business Steve Chabot (82%) Nydia Velazquez (30%)

New Challenges

• Divided Government
• House Democrats: Progressives vs. Centrists

– Medicare for All – Abolish ICE – Free college / Student debt forgiveness – “Keep it in the Ground” – Speaker Pelosi vs. “The Squad”

• House Republicans: Losing the middle

– 81% of rural districts represented by GOP; 30% of suburban districts; 1% of urban districts

Challenges (cont.)

Few incentives for bipartisanship

Trump Administration:

• Tariffs
• Immigration
• Turnover

Challenges: Partisan Gap on Policy Priorities

2019 House Agenda

✓ H.R. 1 (elections/ethics reforms bill) ✓ H.R. 8 (gun safety and background checks) ✓ Paycheck Fairness Act ✓ Net Neutrality ✓ Immigration/DACA ✓ Equality Act ✓ Oversight ✓ Minimum wage ($15/hr by 2024)

• PRO Act
• Budget caps deal / Appropriations bills
• Debt Ceiling
• USMCA
• TRIA Reauthorization
• Export-Import Bank Reauthorization
• Prescription Drugs

✓ Nominations ✓ Judges ✓ Senate Rules Changes

• USMCA
• Tariffs?
• Immigration/border security
• Infrastructure package
• Budget caps deal / Appropriations bills
• Debt Ceiling
• Export-Import Bank Reauthorization
• Prescription Drugs
• TRIA Reauthorization
• Guns?

2019 Senate Agenda

Little Interest in Debt & Deficits

Trade

• USMCA Builds on NAFTA’s Success
• Maintains tariff-free access to CAN and MEX
• 21st century rules for digital trade
• Upgrades intellectual property (IP) protections

Rules against state-owned enterprises

• Modernizes customs procedures
• Strong enforcement chapters on labor and

environment

• Trade War Escalates
• Sec. 301 tariffs on Chinese imports (25% on

$250 billion; $150 billion retaliatory)

• New rounds of 10% tariffs on $300 billion

(Sept. 1 and Dec. 15)

• Aug. 5 – China named currency manipulator
• Impact on Arizona: $600 million in exports

targeted

USMCA Critical for Arizona

• AZ exported $11.3 billion in goods & services

to CAN and MEX in 2017

• 228,300 jobs supported by trade with CAN and

MEX

• 63% of all CAN & MEX imports to AZ are

inputs for U.S. producers

• Top exports: computer & electronic equipment;

appliances & components; minerals & ores; transportation equipment; machinery; agricultural products

USMCA: How Business Can Engage

• U.S. Chamber coalition letter to the Hill

– Over 600 chambers & associations from all 50 states signed on; 27 from Arizona

• USMCA roundtables
• USMCA Coalition – www.usmcacoalition.org
• Letters to the editor, social media, etc.

Infrastructure

• ASCE’s U.S. Report Card: D+
• The U.S. Chamber’s Four Point Plan

– Modest increase to federal gas tax – Expand financing options – Streamline the permitting process – Develop skilled workforce

• Senate working on 5-year FAST reauthorization
• Americans for Transportation Mobility

– www.fasterbettersafer.org

Immigration Reform

DACA + TPS = nearly 1 million

Where Business Can Make a Difference

Rebuilding the Governing Middle

• New and improved U.S. Chamber scorecard
• 80% legislative vote score; 10%

legislative leadership; 10% bipartisanship

• Freshman Forums with incoming members
• More issue forums on immigration,

infrastructure, trade, etc.

• More thank you’s
• Regular engagement with business community

Fly-ins Letters, op-eds, social media, etc. Use the U.S. Chamber’s resources

Member 2018 Score Cum. Score

• Sen. Kyrsten Sinema

75 76

• Sen. Martha McSally

92 96 Tom O’Halleran (AZ-1) 83 74 Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-2) N/A 63 Raul Grijalva (AZ-3) 50 28 Paul Gosar (AZ-4) 83 78 Andy Biggs (AZ-5) 83 88 David Schweikert (AZ-6) 75 80 Ruben Gallego (AZ-7) 50 47 Debbie Lesko (AZ-8) 60 60 Greg Stanton (AZ-9) N/A N/A

Looking Ahead to 2020…

Battle for the House

• Democrats look to retain 2018 pickups
• GOP needs to pick up 18 seats
• Republicans have picked up 18 seats in a

presidential election year only once in last 50 years…