U.S. Chamber of Commerce 2018 Midterms: Now What? Senate: - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jennings Imel Executive Director, Western Region U.S. Chamber of Commerce

2018 Midterms: Now What? Senate: - Majority Leader Mitch McConnell - Assistant Leader John Thune - Conference Chairman John Barrasso - Key Departures: Hatch, McCain (Kyl), Flake, Corker - Key Additions: Romney, Rosen, Sinema, McSally House: - Speaker Nancy Pelosi - Majority Leader Steny Hoyer; Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy - Majority Whip James Clyburn; Minority Whip Steve Scalise Key Takeaways: Loss of centrist R’s in urban/suburban areas - (Dems won 22/25 seats won by Clinton); Incoming D’s split between centrists and progressives - 21% of the House is new (90 freshmen)

Big Changes in the House Committee Previous GOP Chair New Dem Chair Appropriations Rodney Frelinghuysen (89%) Nita Lowey (37%) Financial Services Jeb Hensarling (85%) Maxine Waters (27%) Judiciary Bob Goodlatte (91%) Jerry Nadler (26%) Energy & Commerce Greg Walden (94%) Frank Pallone (34%) Ways & Means Kevin Brady (93%) Richard Neal (35%) Transportation/Infrastructure Bill Shuster (93%) Peter DeFazio (32%) Oversight Trey Gowdy (82%) Elijah Cummings (34%) Education & Workforce Virginia Foxx (82%) Bobby Scott (34%) Natural Resources Rob Bishop (86%) Raul Grijalva (28%) Small Business Steve Chabot (82%) Nydia Velazquez (30%)

New Challenges • Divided Government • House Democrats: Progressives vs. Centrists – Medicare for All – Abolish ICE – Free college / Student debt forgiveness – “Keep it in the Ground” – Speaker Pelosi vs. “The Squad” • House Republicans: Losing the middle – 81% of rural districts represented by GOP; 30% of suburban districts; 1% of urban districts

Challenges (cont.) Trump Administration: Few incentives for bipartisanship - Tariffs - Immigration - Turnover

Challenges: Partisan Gap on Policy Priorities

2019 House Agenda 2019 Senate Agenda ✓ ✓ H.R. 1 (elections/ethics reforms bill) Nominations ✓ ✓ H.R. 8 (gun safety and background checks) Judges ✓ ✓ Paycheck Fairness Act Senate Rules Changes ✓ Net Neutrality • USMCA ✓ Immigration/DACA • Tariffs? ✓ Equality Act • Immigration/border security ✓ Oversight • Infrastructure package ✓ Minimum wage ($15/hr by 2024) • Budget caps deal / Appropriations bills • PRO Act • Debt Ceiling • Budget caps deal / Appropriations bills • Export-Import Bank Reauthorization • Debt Ceiling • Prescription Drugs • USMCA • TRIA Reauthorization • TRIA Reauthorization • Guns? • Export-Import Bank Reauthorization • Prescription Drugs

Little Interest in Debt & Deficits

Trade • USMCA Builds on NAFTA’s Success • Maintains tariff-free access to CAN and MEX 21 st century rules for digital trade • • Upgrades intellectual property (IP) protections Rules against state-owned enterprises • Modernizes customs procedures • Strong enforcement chapters on labor and environment • Trade War Escalates • Sec. 301 tariffs on Chinese imports (25% on $250 billion; $150 billion retaliatory) • New rounds of 10% tariffs on $300 billion (Sept. 1 and Dec. 15) • Aug. 5 – China named currency manipulator • Impact on Arizona: $600 million in exports targeted

USMCA Critical for Arizona • AZ exported $11.3 billion in goods & services to CAN and MEX in 2017 • 228,300 jobs supported by trade with CAN and MEX • 63% of all CAN & MEX imports to AZ are inputs for U.S. producers • Top exports: computer & electronic equipment; appliances & components; minerals & ores; transportation equipment; machinery; agricultural products

USMCA: How Business Can Engage • U.S. Chamber coalition letter to the Hill – Over 600 chambers & associations from all 50 states signed on; 27 from Arizona • USMCA roundtables • USMCA Coalition – www.usmcacoalition.org • Letters to the editor, social media, etc.

Infrastructure • ASCE’s U.S. Report Card: D+ • The U.S. Chamber’s Four Point Plan – Modest increase to federal gas tax – Expand financing options – Streamline the permitting process – Develop skilled workforce • Senate working on 5-year FAST reauthorization • Americans for Transportation Mobility – www.fasterbettersafer.org

Immigration Reform DACA + TPS = nearly 1 million

Where Business Can Make a Difference Member 2018 Cum. Rebuilding the Governing Middle Score Score - New and improved U.S. Chamber scorecard Sen. Kyrsten Sinema 75 76 - 80% legislative vote score; 10% Sen. Martha McSally 92 96 legislative leadership; 10% bipartisanship Tom O’Halleran (AZ-1) 83 74 - Freshman Forums with incoming members Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-2) N/A 63 - More issue forums on immigration, Raul Grijalva (AZ-3) 50 28 infrastructure, trade, etc. More thank you’s - Paul Gosar (AZ-4) 83 78 - Regular engagement with business community Andy Biggs (AZ-5) 83 88 Fly-ins David Schweikert (AZ-6) 75 80 Letters, op-eds, social media, etc. Ruben Gallego (AZ-7) 50 47 Use the U.S. Chamber’s resources Debbie Lesko (AZ-8) 60 60 Greg Stanton (AZ-9) N/A N/A

Looking Ahead to 2020… Battle for the House - Democrats look to retain 2018 pickups - GOP needs to pick up 18 seats - Republicans have picked up 18 seats in a presidential election year only once in last 50 years…