Business opportunities in Turkish Maritime Industry Marco Rensma Director MEYS Emerging Markets Research Istanbul, 24 May 2012 www.meys.eu
Content presentation 1. Introduction MEYS Emerging Markets Research 2. Global trends seaborne trade and shipbuilding 3. Economic developments Turkey 4. Turkish maritime industry: 4.1 Developments seaborn trade Turkey 4.2 Trends in Turkish shipbuilding 4.3 Market of tankers and bulk carriers 4.4 Market of mega yachts 4.5 Market of naval ships 4.6 Market of offshore supply vessels 5. Outlook maritime industry Turkey 2012 - 2014 www.meys.eu
1. Introduction MEYS Emerging Markets Research www.meys.eu
What we do − International market research and advisory for Dutch companies − Focus on the emerging markets of: • Romania Turkey • Hungary Morocco • Czech Republic Vietnam − Business clients from industry, construction, trade & logistics, transport − Official partner TurkeyDesk - Fenedex − Writing articles on emerging markets for: • Fenedexpress, monthly magazine Fenedex • Romania Magazine, quarterly magazine Dutch Romanian Network − Presentations for companies, business associations, and universities on emerging markets and globalisation − Parttime lecturer Global Marketing, The Hague University of Applied Sciences www.meys.eu
2. Global trends seaborne trade and shipbuilding www.meys.eu
Increased volume world seaborne trade International developments seaborne trade (millions of tons loaded) 3.000 2.500 2.000 1.500 1.000 500 - 1980 1985 1990 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Oil Main bulks* Other dry cargo Container Source: UNCTAD www.meys.eu Note: (*) Iron ore, grain, coal, bauxite/alumnia and phosphate
Growth rate world seaborne trade could become lower after 2011 12 125 10 110 8 95 6 Growth rate (%) 80 USD/barrel 4 2 65 0 50 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012f 2013f 2014f -2 35 -4 -6 20 Seaborne trade Global economy Oil prices (R-axis) Source: UNCTAD, IMF, own calculations www.meys.eu
Declining world volume new orders and order books World volume (million GT) 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 New orders Order books Source: SAJN www.meys.eu
Declining demand tankers and bulk carriers; small increase container ships World order book World order book container ships (mill. DWT) (mill. TEU) 160 7.000 140 6.000 120 5.000 100 80 4.000 60 3.000 40 2.000 20 0 1.000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Tanker < 200.000 DWT Tanker > 200.000 DWT Capesize Source: RS Platou www.meys.eu
Source: RS Platou Million USD Falling prices for new tankers, bulk 100 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 carriers and container vessels 2008M01 2008M04 2008M07 2008M10 Suezmax 2009M01 2009M04 2009M07 www.meys.eu Capesize 2009M10 2010M01 2010M04 2010M07 3.000 TEU 2010M10 2011M01 2011M04 2011M07 2011M10 2012M01 2012M04
Lower demand mega yachts 300 261 250 218 214 213 195 200 176 Numbers 150 114 108 90 100 53 50 20 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* New orders Deliveries Note: (*) Jan. - April Source: Camper and Nicholson, Boat International, SuperYacht Times www.meys.eu
Increasing demand for offshore supply vessels (excl. tugboats) Volume world order books OSVs (number) 900 850 800 750 700 650 600 550 500 2007okt 2008jan 2008apr 2008jul 2008okt 2009jan 2009mei 2009aug 2009nov 2010feb 2010mei 2010aug 2010nov 2011feb 2011mei 2011aug 2011nov 2012feb Source: Marcon International www.meys.eu
Increasing overcapacity at shipyards worldwide 60 50 40 30 Million CGT 20 10 0 2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e -10 -20 Completions Shipbuilding capacity Overcapacity Source: POSCO Research Institute www.meys.eu
3. Economic developments Turkey www.meys.eu
Turkey higher economic growth rate than EU-27 Economic growth rate (GDP, %) 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 -2,0 -4,0 -6,0 EU-27 the Netherlands Turkey Source: IMF www.meys.eu
Strong increase total foreign trade Total foreign trade Turkey (billion euro) 300,0 250,0 200,0 Economic liberalisation 150,0 100,0 50,0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Turkstat www.meys.eu
Turkey relatively small export sector Exports, 2011 (% of GDP) Ireland Malta Hungary Estonia Slovakia Netherlands Belgium Czech Republic Lithuania Slovenia Bulgaria Latvia Austria Switzerland Denmark Sweden Germany Poland EU-27 Croatia Norway Finland Romania Portugal United Kingdom Spain Italy France Greece Turkey 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% www.meys.eu Source: Eurostat
Turkey large deficit current account Current account balance, 2011 (% GDP) Norway Switzerland Netherlands Sweden Denmark Germany Estonia Korea Japan Austria Slovak Republic Ireland Israel Belgium Finland Slovenia United Kingdom Australia France Canada Czech Republic United States Italy Spain New Zealand Portugal Iceland Greece Source: IMF Turkey -10 -5 0 5 10 15 www.meys.eu
Source: Eurostat 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 -5,0 0,0 5,0 2009M01 2009M03 High inflationary pressure 2009M05 2009M07 2009M09 Inflation Turkey 2009 – 2012 (%) 2009M11 2010M01 Total 2010M03 www.meys.eu 2010M05 Food 2010M07 2010M09 Energy 2010M11 2011M01 2011M03 2011M05 2011M07 2011M09 2011M11 2012M01 2012M03
Weak Turkish Lira Real effective exchange rate TRY (2010 = 100) 105 100 95 90 85 80 01-2008 04-2008 07-2008 10-2008 01-2009 04-2009 07-2009 10-2009 01-2010 04-2010 07-2010 10-2010 01-2011 04-2011 07-2011 10-2011 01-2012 Source: Bank International Settlements www.meys.eu
Source: Central Bank Turkey 5,00 5,50 6,00 6,50 7,00 7,50 Turkey Central Bank (still) holds 2010M05 2010M06 interest rate relatively low 2010M07 2010M08 2010M09 2010M10 2010M11 2010M12 2011M01 Policy rate (%) 2011M02 www.meys.eu 2011M03 2011M04 2011M05 2011M06 2011M07 2011M08 2011M09 2011M10 2011M11 2011M12 2012M01 2012M02 2012M03 2012M04
Economic outlook Turkey 2012 – 2014 positive Growth rates for Turkey (%) 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 GDP Private consumption Exports Government consumption Source: EIU www.meys.eu
Turkish current account deficit remains high after 2011 Balance current account Turkey (% GDP) 0,0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 -2,0 -4,0 -6,0 -8,0 -10,0 Source: IMF www.meys.eu
4. Turkish Maritime Industry www.meys.eu
4.1 Developments seaborne trade Turkey www.meys.eu
Turkey strategically located for international seaborne trade www.meys.eu
Ports are located all along Turkish coast • 175 Ports • 90 per cent private operated Source: ISPAT www.meys.eu
Busy times at Turkish seaports Volume goods handled at Turkish seaports (million tons) 400 350 300 Cabotage 250 200 150 100 50 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Total volume Export/import Source: UMA www.meys.eu
-60% -40% -20% Source: Turkish customs 20% 40% 60% 0% 2009M01 2009M03 Slowing down growth rate 2009M05 2009M07 Growth rate seaborne trade Turkey(%) 2009M09 seaborne trade 2009M11 2010M01 Exports 2010M03 www.meys.eu 2010M05 2010M07 Imports 2010M09 2010M11 2011M01 2011M03 2011M05 2011M07 2011M09 2011M11 2012M01 2012M03
Turkey relatively large merchant fleet Total DWT merchant fleet as a percentage in world (a) total, 1-1-2011 (%) Greece Japan Germany China excl. Hong Kong Republic of Korea US Norway China, Hong Kong SAR Denmark Taiwan Singapore Bermuda Italy UK Turkey Russia Canada India Malaysia Belgium Iran Saudi Arabia Brazil Indonesia Cyprus UAE Netherlands France Viet Nam Sweden 0 5 10 15 20 Source: UNCTAD Note: (a) Vessels of 1,000 GT and above operating under national and foreign flag www.meys.eu
Relatively young merchant fleet Age merchant fleet Turkey, % in total DWT (December 2011) 30+ years Mainly smaller vessels < 10.000 DWT 20 - 29 years 10 - 19 years 0 - 9 years 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Source: Turkey Chamber of Shipping www.meys.eu
Strong increase container handling Volume container handling Turkish ports (x 1.000 TEU) 7.000 6.000 5.000 4.000 3.000 2.000 1.000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: UMA, TURKLIM www.meys.eu
Turkish ports relatively small globally in container handling Container throughput, 2009 (x 1.000 TEU) China United States Singapore Hong Kong Japan Korea, Republic of Malaysia UAE Germany Spain Taiwan Netherlands Belgium Italy India Indonesia United Kingdom Brazil Egypt Australia Thailand Viet Nam France Panama Turkey - 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000 120.000 Source: UNCTAD www.meys.eu
4.2 Trends in Turkish shipbuilding www.meys.eu
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