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  1. ■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❉❛t❛ ❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ str❛t❡❣② ❘❡s✉❧ts ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥ ❇✉✐❧❞ ❜❛❝❦ ❜❡tt❡r❄ ▲♦♥❣✲❧❛st✐♥❣ ✐♠♣❛❝t ♦❢ t❤❡ ✷✵✶✵ ❊❛rt❤q✉❛❦❡ ✐♥ ❍❛✐t✐✳ ❈❛♠✐❧❧❡ ❙❛✐♥t✲▼❛❝❛r② ✶ ❈❧❛✐r❡ ❩❛♥✉s♦ ✷ ✶ ❉■❆▲✱ ■❘❉ ✷ ❉■❆▲✱ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐té P❛r✐s✲❉❛✉♣❤✐♥❡ ❍✉♠❛♥ ❈❛♣✐t❛❧ ❛♥❞ ●r♦✇t❤ ❈♦♥❢❡r❡♥❝❡ ✲ ❯◆❯✲❲■❉❊❘ ❍❡❧s✐♥❦✐✱ ❏✉♥❡ ✷✵✶✻ ✶ ✴ ✶✽

  2. ■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❉❛t❛ ❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ str❛t❡❣② ❘❡s✉❧ts ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥ ▼♦t✐✈❛t✐♦♥ ❲♦r❧❞✇✐❞❡ ❛❝❝❡❧❡r❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❣❧♦❜❛❧ ❝❧✐♠❛t❡ ❝❤❛♥❣❡ ❛♥❞ ✐♥❝r❡❛s✐♥❣ ✐♥t❡♥s✐t② ❛♥❞ ❢r❡q✉❡♥❝② ♦❢ ♥❛t✉r❛❧ ❛♥❞ ❡♥✈✐r♦♥♠❡♥t❛❧ ❞✐s❛st❡rs✳ ❯♣ t♦ ✸✷✺ ♠✐❧❧✐♦♥ ❡①tr❡♠❡❧② ♣♦♦r ♣❡♦♣❧❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❜❡ ❧✐✈✐♥❣ ✐♥ t❤❡ ✹✾ ♠♦st ❤❛③❛r❞✲♣r♦♥❡ ❝♦✉♥tr✐❡s ✐♥ ✷✵✸✵ ✭❙❤❡♣❡r❞ ❡t ❛❧✳✱ ✷✵✶✸✮✳ ❚❤❡ ❡✛❡❝ts ♦❢ ♥❛t✉r❛❧ ❞✐s❛st❡rs ♦♥ t❤❡ ❛❝❝✉♠✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧s✬ ❤✉♠❛♥ ❝❛♣✐t❛❧✿ ❦❡② ✐ss✉❡ ❢♦r ✐ts ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❛♥❞ s♦❝✐❛❧ r❡❧❡✈❛♥❝❡✳ ❉✐s❛st❡r ❂ ♥❛t✉r❛❧ ❤❛③❛r❞ ✯ ✈✉❧♥❡r❛❜✐❧✐t② ✭❋✐❡❧❞✱ ✷✵✶✷✮ ✷ ✴ ✶✽

  3. ■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❉❛t❛ ❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ str❛t❡❣② ❘❡s✉❧ts ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥ ❍❛✐t✐❛♥ ❈♦♥t❡①t ▲❛t✐♥ ❆♠❡r✐❝❛ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ ❈❛r✐❜❜❡❛♥ ✭▲❆❈✮ r❡❣✐♦♥ ✐s ♦♥❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠♦r❡ ❞✐s❛st❡r✲♣r♦♥❡ ❛r❡❛ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✇♦r❧❞ ❛♥❞ s✉✛❡rs t❤❡ ❧♦✇❡st ❧❡✈❡❧ ♦❢ ✐♥s✉r❛♥❝❡ ❝♦✈❡r❛❣❡ ✭●r✐s❧❛✐♥✲▲❡tré♠②✱ ✷✵✶✸✮✳ ❍❛✐t✐ ✐s t❤❡ ♣♦♦r❡st ✐♥ ▲❆❈ ❛♥❞ ❛♠♦♥❣ t❤❡ ♣♦♦r❡st ✐♥ t❤❡ ✇♦r❧❞✳ ❙t❛t✐st✐❝ ❜❧❛❝❦ ❤♦❧❡ ❋✐rst ❛tt❡♠♣t t♦ ♠❡❛s✉r❡ ❡♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧❧② ❛♥❞ ✐♥ ❛ q✉❛♥t✐t❛t✐✈❡ ✇❛② t❤❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❝♦♥s❡q✉❡♥❝❡s ♦❢ t❤❡ ✷✵✶✵ ❡❛rt❤q✉❛❦❡✳ ✸ ✴ ✶✽

  4. ■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❉❛t❛ ❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ str❛t❡❣② ❘❡s✉❧ts ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥ ❘❡s❡❛r❝❤ q✉❡st✐♦♥s ■❞❡♥t✐❢② t❤❡ ❧♦♥❣✲❧❛st✐♥❣ ✐♠♣❛❝t ♦❢ t❤❡ ✷✵✶✵ ❡❛rt❤q✉❛❦❡ ♦♥ ❤♦✉s❡❤♦❧❞✬s ✇❡❛❧t❤ ✐♥ ❍❛✐t✐✳ ❉❡❧✈❡ ✐♥t♦ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t ❝❤❛♥♥❡❧s ❛t ♣❧❛② ❡①♣❧❛✐♥✐♥❣ ✇❤② s♦♠❡ ❤♦✉s❡❤♦❧❞s ❝♦♣❡ ❜❡tt❡r t❤❛♥ ♦t❤❡r ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ✐♥✐t✐❛❧❧② ♥❡❣❛t✐✈❡ s❤♦❝❦s✳ ✹ ✴ ✶✽

  5. ■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❉❛t❛ ❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ str❛t❡❣② ❘❡s✉❧ts ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥ ▲✐t❡r❛t✉r❡ ◆♦t ❝❧❡❛r t♦ ✇❤❛t ❡①t❡♥t t❤❡ ✐♠♠❡❞✐❛t❡ ♥❡❣❛t✐✈❡ s❤♦❝❦ ♦♥ ♣r♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ✇❡❧❢❛r❡ ♣❡rs✐st ♦✈❡r t✐♠❡ ♦r ✇❤❡t❤❡r ❛✛❡❝t❡❞ ❤♦✉s❤♦❧❞s r❡❝♦✈❡r✱ ♦r ❡✈❡♥ ❜❡♥❡✜t ❛t s♦♠❡ ♣♦✐♥t ❢r♦♠ s♦♠❡ ♣♦st✲❞✐s❛st❡r r❡❝♦♥str✉❝t✐♦♥ ✭❙❦✐❞♠♦r❡ ❛♥❞ ❚♦②❛✱ ✷✵✵✷❀ ●✐❣♥♦✉① ❛♥❞ ▼❡♥❡♥❞❡③✱ ✷✵✶✹✮✳ ❋❡✇ ♣❛♣❡rs ❛❞❞r❡ss t❤❡ ✐♠♣❛❝t ♦❢ ❛ ❤✐❣❤✲♠❛❣♥✐t✉❞❡ ❡❛rt❤q✉❛❦❡ ❞✉❡ t♦ t❤❡ ❧❛❝❦ ♦❢ s✉✐t❛❜❧❡ ❞❛t❛ ✭❉♦♦❝② ❡t ❛❧✳✱ ✷✵✶✸ ❢♦r ❛ r❡✈✐❡✇✮✳ ❆❧♠♦st ♥♦ q✉❛♥t✐t❛t✐✈❡ ❡✈✐❞❡♥❝❡ ♦♥ ❍❛✐t✐ ✭❈❛✈❛❧❧♦ ❡t ❛❧✳✱ ✷✵✶✵✮✳ ❙♦♠❡ ❡✈✐❞❡♥❝❡ t❤❛t ❞❡s♣✐t❡ str♦♥❣ ♠♦❜✐❧✐③❛t✐♦♥ ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ✐♥t❡r♥❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❝♦♠♠✉♥✐t②✱ t❤❡ ❝♦✈❡r❛❣❡ ♦❢ ❛ss✐st❛♥❝❡ ❤❛s ❜❡❡♥ ✐♠♣❡r❢❡❝t ✭❯♥✐t❡❞ ◆❛t✐♦♥ ❖✣❝❡✱ ❛♥❞ ❊❈❱▼❆❙ r❡♣♦rt ❜② ❍❡rr❡r❛ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✷✵✶✹✳ ✺ ✴ ✶✽

  6. ■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❉❛t❛ ❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ str❛t❡❣② ❘❡s✉❧ts ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥ ❉❛t❛ ❚❤❡ ♦r✐❣✐♥❛❧ ✷✵✶✷ P♦st ❊❛rt❤q✉❛❦❡ ▲✐✈✐♥❣ ❈♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥ ❙✉r✈❡② ✭❊❈❱▼❆❙✮ ♦♥ ✹✱✾✺✶ ❤♦✉s❡❤♦❧❞s ✐♥❝❧✉❞✐♥❣ ✷✸✱✼✼✺ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧s✱ ✐♥❝❧✉❞✐♥❣ r❡tr♦s♣❡❝t✐✈❡ ❞❛t❛ ✭❍❡rr❡r❛ ❡t ❛❧✱ ✷✵✶✹✮ ◆✉♠❡r♦✉s ❝❤❛❧❧❡♥❣❡s ❛♥❞ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥t ✜❡❧❞✇♦r❦ ✷✵✵✾ ❘✉r❛❧ ❈❡♥s✉s ✭❘●❆✮ ❛t ❝♦♠♠✉♥❛❧ s❡❝t✐♦♥ ❧❡✈❡❧✳ ❈♦✈❡r❡❞ t♦♣✐❝s✿ ♠✐❣r❛t✐♦♥✱ ✐♥❢r❛str✉❝t✉r❡✱ s❡r✈✐❝❡s✱ ❢♦♦❞ s❡❝✉r✐t②✱ ✈✐♦❧❡♥❝❡✱ ❡t❝✳ ❊①❤❛✉st✐✈❡ s❛♠♣❧❡ ♦❢ r✉r❛❧ ❝♦♠♠✉♥❛❧ s❡❝t✐♦♥s ✭✺✼✵✮ ❯✳❙ ●❡♦❧♦❣✐❝❛❧ ❙✉r✈❡② ✿ ♦❜❥❡❝t✐✈❡ ♠❡❛s✉r❡s ♦❢ t❤❡ str❡♥❣t❤ ♦❢ ❣r♦✉♥❞ ♠♦t✐♦♥ ✭✐✳❡✳ P❡❛❦ ●r♦✉♥❞ ❆❝❝❡❧❡r❛t✐♦♥ ✭P●❆✮✿ ♠❛①✐♠✉♠ ❛❝❝❡❧❡r❛t✐♦♥ ❡①♣❡r✐❡♥❝❡❞ ❜② ❛ ♣❤②s✐❝❛❧ ❜♦❞②✮ ♦❜t❛✐♥❡❞ ❢r♦♠ s❡✐s♠♦❣r❛♣❤✐❝ ✐♥str✉♠❡♥ts ✰ ♠❛♣♣✐♥❣ ♦❢ t❤❡ ✐♥❞✉❝❡❞ ❣r♦✉♥❞ s❤❛❦✐♥❣✳ ♠❛♣ ✻ ✴ ✶✽

  7. ■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❉❛t❛ ❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ str❛t❡❣② ❘❡s✉❧ts ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥ ■❞❡♥t✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥ str❛t❡❣② ❉✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡✲✐♥✲❉✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡s ❛♣♣r♦❛❝❤ Y it = α t + β DID D i · t + η i + ǫ it ❚❤❡ ♠❛✐♥ ✐❞❡♥t✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥ ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥ ✐s t❤❛t tr❡❛t❡❞ ❛♥❞ ✉♥tr❡❛t❡❞ ✉♥✐ts ✇♦✉❧❞ ❢♦❧❧♦✇ ❛ ♣❛r❛❧❧❡❧ tr❡♥❞ ✇✐t❤♦✉t t❤❡ ❡❛rt❤q✉❛❦❡ ❚❤✐s ✐s ✉♥❧✐❦❡❧② t♦ ❤♦❧❞ ❞✉❡ ❤❡r❡ t♦ t❤❡ s♣❡❝✐✜❝ ❧♦❝❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❡♣✐❝❡♥t❡r ✭❃ ✷✵ ❦♠ ❛✇❛② ❢r♦♠ P♦rt✲❛✉✲Pr✐♥❝❡✮ ❚✇♦ str❛t❡❣✐❡s ✿ ❙❛♠♣❧❡ r❡str✐❝t✐♦♥ ✿ ✇❡ t❛❦❡ ♦✉t t❤❡ t♦♦ s♣❡❝✐✜❝ ❤♦✉s❡❤♦❧❞s ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ▼❡tr♦♣♦❧✐t❛♥ ❆r❡❛ ❙❡♠✐✲♣❛r❛♠❡tr✐❝ ❉✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡✲✐♥✲❉✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡s ✭❆❜❛❞✐❡✱ ✷✵✵✺✮ ✼ ✴ ✶✽

  8. ■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❉❛t❛ ❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ str❛t❡❣② ❘❡s✉❧ts ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥ ❚r❡❛t♠❡♥t ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ◆♦t str❛✐❣❤t❢♦r✇❛r❞ t♦ ♠❡❛s✉r❡ ❞✐s❛st❡r ✐♥t❡♥s✐t②✿ ❉❛♠❛❣❡s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s✿ ❡♥❞♦❣❡♥❡✐t② ✐ss✉❡s ✭✈✉❧♥❡r❛❜✐❧✐t②✮✳ ❉✐st❛♥❝❡ t♦ t❤❡ ❡❛rt❤q✉❛❦❡✿ ♣❛rt✐❛❧ ♠❡❛s✉r❡ ❛s ❡❛rt❤q✉❛❦❡ ✐♥t❡♥s✐t② ❛❧s♦ ❞❡♣❡♥❞s ♦♥ t❤❡ ❣❡♦❧♦❣② ❛♥❞ t♦♣♦❣r❛♣❤② ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛✛❡❝t❡❞ ❛r❡❛✳ ❋♦r ❡❛❝❤ P❙❯ ✐♥ ❍❛✐t✐✱ ✇❡ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡ t❤❡ P●❆s ♦❢ t❤❡ ✷✵✶✵ ❡❛rt❤q✉❛❦❡ ❛♥❞ ❛ss✐❣♥ t♦ ❡❛❝❤ ❤♦✉s❡❤♦❧❞ t❤❡ ✐♥t❡♥s✐t② ❡①♣❡r✐❡♥❝❡❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ P❙❯ ✇❤❡r❡ ✐t ✇❛s ❧✐✈✐♥❣ ✇❤❡♥ t❤❡ ❞✐s❛st❡r ♦❝❝✉rr❡❞✳ ❚r❡❛t♠❡♥t ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ✿ P●❆ ❃❂✶✽✪❣✱ t❤❡ ❧♦✇❡r ❜♦✉♥❞ ♦❢ ❛ ✈❡r② str♦♥❣ ♣❡r❝❡✐✈❡❞ s❤❛❦✐♥❣ ✭❞✐✛❡r❡♥t t❤r❡s❤♦❧❞s t❡st❡❞✮✳ ✽ ✴ ✶✽

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