TRIBPIT: ESTIMATING SALMONID COHORT SURVIVAL DURING JUVENILE - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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TRIBPIT: ESTIMATING SALMONID COHORT SURVIVAL DURING JUVENILE - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jul 22, 2023 45 likes •288 views

TRIBPIT: ESTIMATING SALMONID COHORT SURVIVAL DURING JUVENILE MIGRATION Rebecca Buchanan and John Skalski, University of Washington Gregory Mackey, Douglas County PUD Charles Snow, Washington DFW 1 COHORT SURVIVAL: INTRODUCTION Historical

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Rebecca Buchanan and John Skalski, University of Washington Gregory Mackey, Douglas County PUD Charles Snow, Washington DFW

TRIBPIT: ESTIMATING SALMONID COHORT SURVIVAL DURING JUVENILE MIGRATION

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COHORT SURVIVAL: INTRODUCTION

  • Historical focus of survival

monitoring: annual migration through hydrosystem

  • System survival
  • LGR-LGR SAR
  • Great! But
  • Misses survival to

hydrosystem

  • How to relate migration

performance to brood year?

  • Variation in age at

initiation of migration

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COHORT SURVIVAL: INTRODUCTION

  • Cohort survival: probability of

subyearling fish surviving to eventually reach …

  • Mainstem river
  • Hydrosystem
  • McNary Dam (etc.)
  • Defined for cohort from a brood

year

  • Accounts for variation in age

at migration

  • Includes
  • Initiation of migration
  • Survival from rearing

(tagging) grounds to hydrosystem

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OUTLINE

  • Introduction: Cohort Survival
  • Development of Analysis Model
  • Case Study: Twisp River Steelhead, 2010 cohort
  • Data and Software
  • Results and Conclusions

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DEVELOPMENT OF ANALYSIS MODEL: GENERALIZED LOWTHER-SKALSKI MODEL

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SIMPLE POPULATION: CJS MODEL

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Rel

S1 P1 λ=S3P3 S2 P2

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COMPLEX POPULATION: BRANCHING MODEL

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Rel

S1 P1 λ=S3P3 S2 P2

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3

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COHORT BRANCHING MODEL

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S1 P1 λ=S3P3 S2 P2

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3

Model estimates transition probability

  • Year-specific probability
  • f getting from one site

to another

  • Includes:
  • Migration and

survival

  • Delay and survival

Rel

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COHORT SURVIVAL TO SITE 1

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Rel Year 1 Year 2 Year 3

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COHORT SURVIVAL TO SITE 2

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Rel Year 1 Year 2 Year 3

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COHORT BRANCHING MODEL: ANNUAL RELEASES OVER AGE CLASSES

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Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Rel 2 Rel 3 Rel 1

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DETECTION SITES AND DATA

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  • Detection sites
  • Instream PIT-tag detectors (juvenile)
  • Juvenile Bypass Systems and other dam sites
  • Estuary Towed Array
  • Detection probabilities: not tiny
  • Data
  • PIT-tag interrogation data
  • Detected where and when
  • Multiple observation years
  • DART query
  • Age data – identify the cohort
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CASE STUDY: TWISP RIVER STEELHEAD

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TWISP RIVER STEELHEAD

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  • 2010 – 2012 (July – October):
  • 5,422 juvenile O. mykiss tagged
  • CSS Study
  • Hatchery effectiveness monitoring for

Douglas PUD

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  • Brood Year: 2010
  • Tagging: Hook and line, electroshock,

rotary screw trap

  • 2010: 211
  • 2011: 759
  • 2012: 514
  • Age data
  • Scale samples (WDFW)
  • < 90 mm: subyearlings (fall) or

yearlings (July)

  • Detection Sites
  • LMR = Lower Methow River –

couldn’t use

  • Rocky Reach, McNary, John Day

TWISP RIVER STEELHEAD

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DART DATA QUERY:

WWW.CBR.WASHINGTON.EDU/DART/QUERY/PIT_BASIN_BRANCHING

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TAGGING AND OBSERVATION DATA

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PROGRAM TRIBPIT

WWW.CBR.WASHINGTON.EDU/ANALYSIS

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SITES AND YEARS CONFIGURATION

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RESULTS: TRANSITION PROBABILITIES

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TWISP STEELHEAD: COHORT SURVIVAL

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To Rocky Reach: 0.0478 (SE = 0.0025) To McNary: 0.0283 (SE = 0.0139)

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  • PIT-tag subyearlings
  • Age the fish – all the fish you want to use to estimate cohort survival
  • Sample size
  • Sample size of subyearlings is key
  • Large enough to represent every migration year for cohort
  • Tributary Survival SampleSize (Columbia Basin Research)

DATA REQUIREMENTS

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CONCLUSIONS

  • Cohort survival is the probability of a subyearling surviving to a downstream

location

  • Proportions of fish outmigrating each year
  • Survival for each age class
  • Performance metric from Bi-Op
  • What we learn from cohort survival and TribPit
  • Survival to the hydrosystem
  • Where are fish overwintering
  • Age structure of migrants
  • Applications
  • Steelhead juvenile outmigration
  • Fall Chinook salmon
  • Spring Chinook salmon (non-natal rearing areas)
  • Software: www.cbr.washington.edu/analysis

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THANKS

  • Software:
  • Jim Lady and Susannah Iltis, Columbia Basin Research, University
  • f Washington
  • Consultation:
  • Andrew Murdoch, Todd Miller – WDFW
  • Tim Copeland, Brett Bowersox, Nick Davids – IDFG
  • Scott Favrot – ODFW
  • Jody White – QCI
  • Joe Zendt – Yakama Nation
  • Rick Orme – Nez Perce Tribe
  • Josh Murauskas – Anchor QEA
  • Pat Connolly – USGS
  • Funding: Bonneville Power Administration

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