Trends towards Sustainability in the Nuclear Fuel Cycle --- Global - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Trends towards Sustainability in the Nuclear Fuel Cycle --- Global - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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GLOBAL 2011 December 11-16, 2011 Makuhari Messe, Chiba, Japan Trends towards Sustainability in the Nuclear Fuel Cycle --- Global Nuclear Energy Policy Thierry DUJARDIN Deputy Director, Science and Development OECD Nuclear Energy Agency ThD

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ThD / December 13, 2011 GLOBAL 2011 1

Thierry DUJARDIN Deputy Director, Science and Development OECD Nuclear Energy Agency

Trends towards Sustainability in the Nuclear Fuel Cycle

  • Global Nuclear Energy Policy

GLOBAL 2011 December 11-16, 2011 Makuhari Messe, Chiba, Japan

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ThD / December 13, 2011 GLOBAL 2011 2

  • Scope and objectives
  • Approach

THE STUDY

  • Technical progress (past and coming

decade and the longer term)

  • National and international progress
  • Policies

FINDINGS & RECOMMENDATIONS TRENDS

Outline

  • Forthcoming publication

(expected by the end of the year) STATUS

Note: assessments largely developed prior to Fukushima

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ThD / December 13, 2011 GLOBAL 2011 3

Investigate developments in the NFC Update the 2002 publication:

Scope and Objectives

  • Over the past decade
  • In the next ten years
  • In the longer term

Analyse the sustainability elements of NFCs

  • Economic (cost, optimise use of resources)
  • Social (enhance safety, proliferation resistance)
  • Environment (reduce impacts)

“Trends in the Nuclear Fuel Cycle: Economic, Environmental and Social Aspects”

Focus on policy and strategies

  • Review experience and perspectives in policy making
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ThD / December 13, 2011 GLOBAL 2011 4

Emphasis on sustainability

  • Sustainability criteria
  • Environment
  • Resource Utilization
  • Waste Management
  • Infrastructure
  • Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection
  • Safety
  • Economics

Approach

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ThD / December 13, 2011 GLOBAL 2011 5

Mining & milling

  • Increase of uranium demand and resource base
  • Increase in mining and milling costs, uranium prices

& price volatility

  • Change around 2003/04

(new reactors on line, improved capacity factors & up-rating of existing NPPs, stocks almost used up)

  • Price reduction post Fukushima
  • Resources expected to be sufficient for ~100 years of

supply (at 2008 reactor requirement levels) provided timely achievement of existing and committed plans of capacity expansion

  • Challenges due to more difficult approval processes &

increasing public resistance to mining

  • Greater use of in-situ leaching (ISL)
  • Consolidation of best practices
  • New entrants
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ThD / December 13, 2011 GLOBAL 2011 6

  • Price reduction post Fukushima
  • Resources expected to be sufficient for ~100 years
  • f supply (at 2008 reactor requirement levels) pr
  • vided timely achievement of existing and commi

tted plans of capacity expansion

  • Challenges due to more difficult approval process

es & increasing public resistance to mining

  • Greater use of in-situ leaching (ISL)
  • Consolidation of best practices
  • New entrants

10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000 70 000 80 000

tU Year

World Requirements World Production

Trends in the past decade and near future Front end

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ThD / December 13, 2011 GLOBAL 2011 7

Optimisation of designs & improvements of behaviour Increased burnup and initial enrichments Wider use of MOX and REPU fuel utilisation - but some

uncertainties in the future use post Fukushima

Possible bottle neck: zirconium fabrication in case of

strong nuclear development

Trends in the past decade and near future Front end

Enrichment Fuel design & fabrication

Centrifuge displacing diffusion enrichment

(20% in 2001 40% in 2010)

Reduced enrichment tails assays Enlargement of enrichment capacity Development of laser enrichment still continuing,

approaching pre-industrial readiness

Conversion

Higher conversion prices 4 big players account for 90% of nominal capacity Replacement, modernisation and expansion of capacity

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ThD / December 13, 2011 GLOBAL 2011 8

Longer fuel cycles Increasing output: higher load factors & upratings Load following Lifetime extension

Reactor

  • perations

Trends in the past decade and near future Reactor & Back end

Spent fuel & waste management

Progress with deep geological repositories for the

disposal of SF and HLW

Reversibility / retrievability Interim storage of SF and HLW – greater adoption

  • f dry storage capacity & centralised facilities

Reprocessing

Technological progress favouring efficiency,

flexibility & reduction of discharges

Growing reprocessing capacities

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ThD / December 13, 2011 GLOBAL 2011 9

Gen IV reactors Fuel design & fabrication R&D Partitioning & transmutation ADS Thorium Fuel Cycle Unconventional uranium resources

Advanced systems and fuel cycles

In the longer term

Small & Medium Reactors High conversion thermal reactors Non-electric use of nuclear

Innovative nuclear energy applications & concepts

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  • Discussion mainly focused on historical

challenges

Trends in countries and global effort Policy considerations (1)

Disposal of spent fuel and high level waste Reprocessing of spent fuel Non-proliferation and safeguards Safety

  • Principal policy drivers

Security of supply / heavy reliance on energy imports Environmental concerns

  • Little emphasis of policies squarely on

sustainability

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ThD / December 13, 2011 GLOBAL 2011 11

Dichotomous approach maintained Some increase of recycling (sizeable in France)

  • Disposal of spent fuel and high level waste

Geological repository – favoured option Legal and institutional frameworks Greater public consultation Establishment of agencies for radwaste management Progress with site identification, i.e. in Finland & Sweden,

but high profile setback with Yucca Mountain

Regional and transnational approaches Council Directive 2011/70/EURATOM & Joint Convention

  • Reprocessing of spent fuel

Trends in countries and global effort Policy considerations (2)

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ThD / December 13, 2011 GLOBAL 2011 12

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Still overarching priority Fukushima Dai-ichi events - strengthen safety standards and

international cooperation, focus on accident response, influence

  • n policy decisions ?

Council Directive 2009/71/EURATOM Harmonisation: MDEP, ENSREG Independence of regulatory authorities

  • Safety

Broaden focus to complete fuel-cycle and infrastructure

assessments and comprehensive State-level approach

Attention to vulnerabilities of societal infrastructure Increased attention to non-traditional targets, e.g. cyber-attacks

& information theft

  • Non-proliferation and safeguards

Trends in countries and global effort Policy considerations (3)

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ThD / December 13, 2011 GLOBAL 2011 13

  • New build & prospects of growth (could slow-down

post Fukushima)

  • Prevalence of OFC, with some partial recycling for

existing fleet and NPPs under construction

  • U demand from non-OECD countries expected to

impact OECD countries

  • Increased U prices & price volatility, but
  • No short-term constraints from shortage of resources
  • Yet – need for investments and timeliness of mining

projects

Findings (1)

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ThD / December 13, 2011 GLOBAL 2011 14

  • Little incentive to close the fuel cycle

(from a resource utilisation perspective)

  • Overall only incremental progress towards sustainability

Step changes not market-driven government action required

  • Step changes in sustainability linked to deployment of

Advanced FCs

  • Increased weight of global strategies (GENIV, INPRO &

IFNEC) & international approaches (e.g. fuel banks or regional repositories)

Findings (2)

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ThD / December 13, 2011 GLOBAL 2011 15

To support nuclear development governments would need

to:

Waste management - Progress towards implementation of

deep geological repositories must remain a high priority

ensure efficiency in necessary approval processes ensure long term security of supply (from conventional &

unconventional sources)

consider coupling energy policies with supporting fiscal policies

(& market incentives) to ease risk management, particularly for the implementation of new technologies with long lead times

work with mining industry to ensure that best practices are applied further R&D to optimise geological disposal solutions and to

address issues related to prolonged interim storage of spent fuel

challenges such as licensing, public acceptance, knowledge

retention must be addressed

Recommendations (1)

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  • Advanced reactors and closed fuel cycle
  • Integrated approach to the analysis of the economy of

the fuel cycle (from mining to waste management) needs to be further developed

  • Work towards universally agreed indicators to assess

sustainability of NFC must continue

Governments need to ensure adequate regulatory

frameworks & resources to enable transition to fast neutron systems

On-going R&D and international cooperation in

advanced FC should be further promoted

Recommendations (2)

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ThD / December 13, 2011 GLOBAL 2011 17

Global Nuclear Energy Policy

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Nuclear Energy Policy – Key Drivers

Global energy demand

  • Population growth
  • Economic growth, especially in developing

countries

Increasing prices of fossil fuels Increasing volatility of prices Security of energy supply (& diversity)

Nuclear energy – domestic source

Climate change

Need to “decarbonise” electricity

production

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ThD / December 13, 2011 GLOBAL 2011 19

None of these drivers was modified due to the Fukushima Daiichi accident However, the public opinion has been very much impacted bythe accident

Although there is no certainty, the accident will likely slow the development

  • f nuclear power in the medium term
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ThD / December 13, 2011 GLOBAL 2011 20

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Challenges Ahead - Before

Financing capital-intensive nuclear units

  • Reducing business risks

Enhancing economic and safety

performance simultaneously

Implementing HLW repositories

  • Social acceptance

Strengthening involvement of civil society

  • n nuclear energy issues

Developing innovative reactors and fuel cycles Penetrating new markets (hydrogen, heat,

potable water)

Securing qualified human resources

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ThD / December 13, 2011 GLOBAL 2011 21

Challenges Ahead - After

The same ones

+

The lessons from Fukushima need to be

integrated in the design and the sitting of new plants

Adequate measures should be taken from

the result of the safety reviews on existing reactors

Restoring public confidence

21

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Concluding Remarks (1)

Current world energy model not sustainable

It prepares a “dirty, unsecure and expensive” future

There is no “silver bullet” It is essential to keep all low-carbon energy

  • ptions open and to avoid idolising or

demonising any technology

Nuclear energy is part of the solution (triple win)

Reduction of CO2 emissions Increased security of energy supply Economics benefits

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ThD / December 13, 2011 GLOBAL 2011 23

Concluding Remarks (2)

But

All lessons from Fukushima need to be drawn

Existing reactors Future reactors

Transparency and increased international

cooperation essential

Identifying and implementing best practices

Restoring public confidence likely the most

difficult challenge

23

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ThD / December 13, 2011 GLOBAL 2011 24

Thank you for your attention