Transport Alex Haffner, Dave Wagstaff & Angeliki Gkogka System - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Alex Haffner, Dave Wagstaff & Angeliki Gkogka

Transport

Welcome

System Operator

What we will cover today…

• Recent changes in transport sector
• Internal combustion engine reductions
• Annual energy demand from road transport
• Smart charging and engagement
• Questions

Recent developments…

Transport – Numbers of ICE vehicles

“Slower decarbonisation” scenarios still have ~12% ICE vehicles Car market saturates with EVs prior to 2040 in “faster decarbonisation” scenarios FES 2017 ICE vehicles at 2050

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Annual demand (TWh/year) Community Renewables Two Degrees Steady Progression Consumer Evolution

Transport – Annual electricity demand

Transport – Annual Demand

Electricity Hydrogen Natural gas Petrol/Diesel

Smart charging - 2040 winter’s day

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Engagement Community Renewables Two Degrees Steady Progression Consumer Evolution

Smart charging and engagement

Non-residential charging

67% of houses have off-road parking; what about the other 33% of houses?

In a charging forecourt On the street At a destination

….and possibly a few more options….

Andy Dobbie, Rob Nickerson & Mark Perry

Electricity supply & demand

Welcome

System Operator

Total peak demand

55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Total peak demand (GW) Community Renewables Two Degrees Steady Progression Consumer Evolution Impact of smart charging reduces peak demand in the 2050-compliant scenarios Faster take-up of electric vehicles in 2050-compliant scenarios

Installed generation capacity

50 100 150 200 250 300 2017 CR TD SP CE CR TD SP CE Installed capacity (GW)

Interconnectors Biomass CCS Waste Gas Coal Hydro Marine Nuclear Offshore wind Onshore wind Solar Other thermal Other renewables Storage Vehicle to Grid

2017 2030 2050

27% 45% 31% 28% 40% 65% 44% 37% 56%

Generation output

60 120 180 240 300 100 200 300 400 500 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Carbon intensity (gCO2 / kWh) Annual output (TWh)

Interconnectors Biomass CCS Waste Gas Coal Hydro Marine Nuclear Offshore Wind Onshore Wind Solar Other Thermal Other Renewables

Renewable generation accounts for more than 75% of total output by 2030

Community Renewables

Growth of flexibility by 2050

SP Interconnectors Storage and vehicle to grid TD 0 GW 10 GW 20 GW 30 GW 40 GW CE

2017 2017 2017

CR 50 GW TD Gas CE

Key insights

Low carbon technologies will grow at pace Markets will need to adapt New business models

Neil Rowley, Usman Bagudu & Nigel Bradbury

Gas supply & heat

Welcome

FES 2018 gas supply and heat presentation

Residential heat: thermal efficiency

Band B Band C Band D Band A

High case: CR & TD Low case: SP & CE

Percentage Homes

Residential heat: low-carbon technology

Now SP CE TD CR

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2017 2050 2050 2050 2050 Millions Gas boiler Electric Others Hybrid heat pump gas boiler Hydrogen District Heat

Gas supply: demand requirements

Total GB demand (including exports)

CR TD SP CE

940 TWh 717 TWh 335 TWh 673 TWh 739 TWh

2050 TODAY

SP SP CR

Gas supply: energy volumes provided in 2050

UKCS Norway Shale Continent & LNG Green gas 0 bcm 10 bcm 20 bcm 30 bcm 40 bcm

CE

2017 2017 2017 2017

SP CR

CR TD

CE SP

2017

CE SP TD CR CE TD

CE TD

System Operator

Gas supply: import dependency 2050

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Import History CR TD SP CE