Town of Windsor Voter Survey Presentation prepared for August 30, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Town of Windsor Voter Survey Presentation prepared for August 30, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Town of Windsor Voter Survey Presentation prepared for August 30, 2017 Opinion Research on Elections and Public Policy Probolsky Research Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 Newport


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Town of Windsor Voter Survey

Presentation prepared for

Opinion Research on Elections and Public Policy

August 30, 2017

Probolsky Research 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 Newport Beach CA 92660 Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 Washington DC (202) 559-0270

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Probolsky Research 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 Newport Beach CA 92660 Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 Washington DC (202) 559-0270

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Town of Windsor – Voter Survey

Survey Methodology

From Wednesday, August 23 to Monday, August 28, 2017, Probolsky Research conducted a live-interviewer telephone and online survey of registered voters within the Town of Windsor. A total of 300 voters were surveyed (93 via telephone and 207 online). A survey of this size yields a margin of error of +/-5.8% with a confidence level of 95%. Interviews were conducted with respondents on both landline and mobile (52.6%) phones and were offered in English and Spanish (1.6%) languages. For the online survey phase, we urged participation via email (please see email introduction language on the following slide). Security measures precluded individuals from completing the survey more than once and allowed only the designated voters to complete the

  • survey. Online respondents could use their computer, tablet or smart phone to participate. We sent emails to all voters with valid email addresses.

Our sample was developed from the voter files originally compiled by the Sonoma County Registrar of Voters and then enhanced with consumer

  • data. Probolsky Research applies a stratified random sampling methodology to our sample design. In other words, we ensure that the

demographic proportions of survey respondents match the demographic composition of the universe being researched. Citizens for Windsor sponsored this poll. Probolsky Research specializes in opinion research on behalf of corporate, government, non-profit, and special interest clients.

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Probolsky Research 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 Newport Beach CA 92660 Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 Washington DC (202) 559-0270

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Town of Windsor – Voter Survey

Survey Methodology (cont.)

Email Language Dear {FIRST NAME}, We are conducting a survey about issues facing your community. Your opinion is important and will remain confidential. <LINK> (Note: Please do not forward the survey link to others as it is personalized to ensure that the survey will only work once; for the resident indicated.) Thank you

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Probolsky Research 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 Newport Beach CA 92660

Open-Ended Question

Top Issues

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Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 Washington DC (202) 559-0270

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Probolsky Research 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 Newport Beach CA 92660

What is Top of Mind within Windsor?

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Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 Washington DC (202) 559-0270

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Probolsky Research 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 Newport Beach CA 92660

Affordable Housing and Poverty/Homelessness

Are most important issues among voters

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Question: What is the most important issue facing your community today?

Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 Washington DC (202) 559-0270

19.7% 18.0% 12.7% 10.7% 3.7% 3.3% 3.0% 2.7% 2.3% 1.3% 1.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.0% 1.0% 14.0% 5.0% Affordable Housing/Living Over Population/Controlling Growth/Development Transportation/Traffic Public Safety Jobs/Economy Education/Schools/Higher Education Poverty Moral Issues Government Immigration/Illegal Immigration Water/Drought Environmental Security/Terrorism Healthcare No issues Other Don't know/Refused

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Probolsky Research 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 Newport Beach CA 92660

Is Windsor on the Right Track or on the Wrong Track?

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Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 Washington DC (202) 559-0270

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Probolsky Research 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 Newport Beach CA 92660

51.7% Say Windsor is on the Right Track

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Question: Do you think that Windsor is generally on the right track or on the wrong track? 51.7% 22.7% 25.6% Right Track Wrong Track Unsure/Refused

Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 Washington DC (202) 559-0270

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Probolsky Research 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 Newport Beach CA 92660

Importance of Preserving Open Space & Greenbelts around Windsor

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Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 Washington DC (202) 559-0270

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Probolsky Research 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 Newport Beach CA 92660

84% Say it is Important that

Open space and greenbelts in and around Windsor are protected

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Question: Would you say it is important or not important to you that our open space and greenbelts in and around Windsor are protected from future development? 84.0% 7.7% 8.3% Important Not important Unsure/Refused

Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 Washington DC (202) 559-0270

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Probolsky Research 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 Newport Beach CA 92660

Name ID

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Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 Washington DC (202) 559-0270

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Probolsky Research 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 Newport Beach CA 92660

Windsor Mayor Debora Fudge,

  • Sen. Diane Feinstein, and Sen. Kamala Harris are among highest in favorableness

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Question: Now I have the names of several people and organizations that I am going to read to you. Please tell me if you have heard

  • f them and if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of them. If you have no opinion or have never heard of them, just say so. Have

you heard of [READ NAME]? Would you say that you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of [READ NAME]?

73.7% 57.7% 52.7% 63.0% 86.3% 71.0% 77.0% 93.0% 82.0% 26.7% 15.0% 11.0% 16.0% 36.7% 30.0% 12.7% 46.3% 42.3% 21.0% 8.3% 4.0% 8.0% 25.3% 10.0% 33.3% 35.7% 25.7% Congressman Jared Huffman Windsor Town Councilmember Bruce Okrepkie Windsor Town Councilmember Mark Millan Windsor Town Vice Mayor Dominic Foppoli Windsor Mayor Debora Fudge Windsor Town Councilmember Sam Salmon Lytton Band of Pomo Indians (Lytton or San Pablo Lytton Indians) U.S. Senator Diane Feinstein U.S. Senator Kamala Harris

Aware Favorable Unfavorable Favorable

Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 Washington DC (202) 559-0270

Aware Favorable Unfavorable Aware Favorable Unfavorable Aware Favorable Unfavorable Aware Favorable Unfavorable Aware Favorable Unfavorable Aware Favorable Unfavorable Aware Favorable Unfavorable Aware Favorable Unfavorable

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Probolsky Research 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 Newport Beach CA 92660

What should the Top Priorities of the Mayor and Town Council be?

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Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 Washington DC (202) 559-0270

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Probolsky Research 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 Newport Beach CA 92660

Local Schools and Education Ranked as Top

Priority among voters

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Question: Now I am going to read a list of several issues that may be facing Windsor. Please listen to each and then tell me which THREE issues should be the top priorities of the Windsor Mayor and Town Council? Choose three. 41.1% 39.7% 39.1% 38.7% 38.4% 34.0% 24.2% 17.5% 11.4% 0.0% 0.7% Local schools and education Traffic congestion Protecting open space/the environment Maintain friendly small-town feel Crime, gangs, drugs and graffiti Limiting growth and development Town government budget, finances and eliminating government waste Providing recreational facilities and programs Water and drought Other Unsure/Refused

Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 Washington DC (202) 559-0270

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Probolsky Research 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 Newport Beach CA 92660

The Lytton Rancheria Homelands Act of 2017 (Initial)

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Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 Washington DC (202) 559-0270

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Probolsky Research 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 Newport Beach CA 92660

More than Half of Respondents Oppose

The Lytton Rancheria Homelands Act of 2017

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Question: House Resolution 597, also known as the Lytton Rancheria Homelands Act of 2017, has been introduced in the U.S. House

  • f Representatives. The Act takes 511 acres of land next to the Town of Windsor into trust by the federal government as part of the

reservation of the Lytton Rancheria Indians. Do you support or oppose the Lytton Rancheria Homelands Act of 2017? 18.0% 57.3% 24.7% Support Oppose Unsure/Refused

Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 Washington DC (202) 559-0270

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Probolsky Research 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 Newport Beach CA 92660

“Fairness” is the Top Reason Why

Residents support the Lytton Rancheria Act of 20178

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Question: What is the top reason why you would support the Lytton Rancheria Homelands Act of 2017? 51.9% 9.3% 7.4% 5.6% 5.6% 3.7% 0.0% 11.1% 5.6% It is fair for the Tribe Promotes diversity/Equity/Equality Nature Housing/Affordability Generally a good idea Growth No issues Other Don’t know/Refused

Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 Washington DC (202) 559-0270

*ASKED OF THOSE WHO ANSWERED “SUPPORT” TO Q14

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Probolsky Research 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 Newport Beach CA 92660

The Casino is the Top Reason Why Residents

Oppose the Lytton Rancheria Homelands Act of 2017

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Question: What is the top reason why you would oppose the Lytton Rancheria Homelands Act of 2017?

Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 Washington DC (202) 559-0270

*ASKED OF THOSE WHO ANSWERED “OPPOSE” TO Q14 21.5% 17.4% 9.9% 8.7% 8.1% 4.1% 4.1% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 1.7% 1.7% 1.2% 1.2% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 7.6% 3.5%

Casino Growth/Population/Overdevelopment issues Unfair use of the land/It's not their land Traffic/Transportation Takes away space/Too much housing construction General dislike Negative impact directly on Windsor Money issues/Finances Crime Infrastructure Residents are not following the rules/Laws Government issues Environmental issues All of the above/Too many reasons Not needed The residents will take over Windsor Don't want the Lytton Rancheria Homelands Act Impact on the green belt No issues Other Don't know/Refused

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Probolsky Research 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 Newport Beach CA 92660

Message Testing

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Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 Washington DC (202) 559-0270

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Probolsky Research 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 Newport Beach CA 92660

82% Become More Likely to Oppose the

Act knowing the Lytton Rancheria Indians plan to build on over one hundred acres of natural open space

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Question: If the Lytton Rancheria Homelands Act of 2017 becomes law and the land is taken into trust by the federal government, the Lytton Rancheria Indians plan to build on over one hundred acres of natural open space, which will be cleared of trees, wildlife and

  • vegetation. As many as 2,000 trees will have to be cut down. The Lytton Tribe also plans to cut down 1,500 historic oak trees in a greenbelt

and on sensitive lands where water filters down into our groundwater basin. Does knowing this make you more likely to support or more likely to oppose the Lytton Rancheria Homelands Act of 2017, which would place lands in Sonoma County into trust with the federal government as part of the reservation of the Lytton Rancheria? If it makes no difference to you, just say so.

How does this affect those who initially opposed? How does this affect those who were initially unsure? 97.1% 2.9%

More likely to SUPPORT 0.0% More likely to OPPOSE 97.1% Makes no difference 2.9% Unsure/refused 0.0%

4.0% 82.0% 11.0% 3.0%

More likely to SUPPORT 4.0% More likely to OPPOSE 82.0% Makes no difference 11.0% Unsure/Refused 3.0% Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 Washington DC (202) 559-0270

4.1% 70.3% 20.3% 5.3%

More likely to SUPPORT 4.1% More likely to OPPOSE 70.3% Makes no difference 20.3% Unsure/refused 5.3%

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Probolsky Research 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 Newport Beach CA 92660

79.7% Become More Likely to Oppose

Have threatened to dig deep wells and spray sewage

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Question: The Lytton Rancheria Tribe members have not been good neighbors. They have threatened to dig wells deeper than any of the residents if they are not given water meant for town residents and threatened to spray sewage waste close to residents’ houses if they are not given sewer connections. Does knowing this make you more likely to support or more likely to oppose the Lytton Rancheria Homelands Act of 2017, which would place lands in Sonoma County into trust with the federal government as part of the reservation of the Lytton Rancheria? If it makes no difference to you, just say so.

How does this affect those who initially opposed? How does this affect those who were initially unsure? 0.6% 94.2% 3.5% 1.7%

More likely to SUPPORT 0.6% More likely to OPPOSE 94.2% Makes no difference 3.5% Unsure/refused 1.7%

4.0% 79.7% 8.7% 7.6%

More likely to SUPPORT 4.0% More likely to OPPOSE 79.7% Makes no difference 8.7% Unsure/Refused 7.6% Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 Washington DC (202) 559-0270

2.7% 70.3% 9.5% 17.6%

More likely to SUPPORT 2.7% More likely to OPPOSE 70.3% Makes no difference 9.5% Unsure/refused 17.6%

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Probolsky Research 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 Newport Beach CA 92660

78.3% Become More Likely to Oppose

Knowing sovereign Indians are not subject to California’s environmental standards

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Question: The proposed development by the Lytton Rancheria is inconsistent with current zoning and land use limits, but sovereign Indian nations are not subject to California’s environmental standards. The Lytton Tribe plans to build 137 housing units in addition to a tribal community building on 124 acres of land zoned for only for 24 units. They also want to develop another 214 housing units on 71 acres currently zoned for 14 units. This would total 361 housing units for just 277 tribal members. In the future, they could build whatever they wish without restrictions. Does knowing this make you more likely to support or more likely to oppose the Lytton Rancheria Homelands Act of 2017, which would place lands in Sonoma County into trust with the federal government as part of the reservation of the Lytton Rancheria? If it makes no difference to you, just say so.

How does this affect those who initially opposed? How does this affect those who were initially unsure? 94.8% 4.7% 0.5%

More likely to SUPPORT 0.0% More likely to OPPOSE 94.8% Makes no difference 4.7% Unsure/refused 0.5%

5.0% 78.3% 11.7% 5.0%

More likely to SUPPORT 5.0% More likely to OPPOSE 78.3% Makes no difference 11.7% Unsure/Refused 5.0% Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 Washington DC (202) 559-0270

6.8% 62.2% 14.9% 16.2%

More likely to SUPPORT 6.8% More likely to OPPOSE 62.2% Makes no difference 14.9% Unsure/refused 16.2%

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Probolsky Research 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 Newport Beach CA 92660

76% Become More Likely to Oppose

Knowing the proposed development would result in more traffic

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Question: The proposed development by the Lytton Rancheria would result in considerably more traffic on Eastside, Starr and Windsor River Roads. Does knowing this make you more likely to support or more likely to oppose the Lytton Rancheria Homelands Act of 2017, which would place lands in Sonoma County into trust with the federal government as part of the reservation of the Lytton Rancheria? If it makes no difference to you, just say so.

How does this affect those who initially opposed? How does this affect those who were initially unsure? 1.2% 94.8% 3.5% 0.6%

More likely to SUPPORT 1.2% More likely to OPPOSE 94.8% Makes no difference 3.5% Unsure/refused 0.6%

4.7% 76.0% 16.0% 3.3%

More likely to SUPPORT 4.7% More likely to OPPOSE 76.0% Makes no difference 16.0% Unsure/Refused 3.3% Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 Washington DC (202) 559-0270

5.4% 63.5% 21.6% 9.5%

More likely to SUPPORT 5.4% More likely to OPPOSE 63.5% Makes no difference 21.6% Unsure/refused 9.5%

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Probolsky Research 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 Newport Beach CA 92660

75% Become More Likely to Oppose

Knowing the proposed development would violate Windsor’s Urban Growth Boundary

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Question: The proposed development by the Lytton Rancheria would violate Windsor’s Urban Growth Boundary and would undermine the voter’s desire to maintain a green belt around the Town, not to mention seriously impact the character of the Town. Does knowing this make you more likely to support or more likely to oppose the Lytton Rancheria Homelands Act of 2017, which would place lands in Sonoma County into trust with the federal government as part of the reservation of the Lytton Rancheria? If it makes no difference to you, just say so.

How does this affect those who initially opposed? How does this affect those who were initially unsure? 1.2% 95.3% 2.9% 0.6%

More likely to SUPPORT 1.2% More likely to OPPOSE 95.3% Makes no difference 2.9% Unsure/refused 0.6%

6.7% 75.0% 16.0% 2.3%

More likely to SUPPORT 6.7% More likely to OPPOSE 75.0% Makes no difference 16.0% Unsure/Refused 2.3% Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 Washington DC (202) 559-0270

6.8% 60.8% 27.0% 5.4%

More likely to SUPPORT 6.8% More likely to OPPOSE 60.8% Makes no difference 27.0% Unsure/refused 5.4%

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Probolsky Research 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 Newport Beach CA 92660

70% Become More Likely to Oppose

Knowing the Lytton Tribe has no historical relation to the land in Windsor

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Question: The Lytton Tribe have no historical relation to the land in Windsor. The Rancheria was more than 10 miles away in the Alexander Valley and their current reservation is more than 60 miles away in Contra Costa County. There is no reason why the Lytton Tribe should have part of their reservation in Sonoma County. Does knowing this make you more likely to support or more likely to oppose the Lytton Rancheria Homelands Act of 2017, which would place lands in Sonoma County into trust with the federal government as part of the reservation of the Lytton Rancheria? If it makes no difference to you, just say so.

How does this affect those who initially opposed? How does this affect those who were initially unsure? 2.3% 89.0% 5.8% 2.9%

More likely to SUPPORT 2.3% More likely to OPPOSE 89.0% Makes no difference 5.8% Unsure/refused 2.9%

6.3% 70.0% 17.0% 6.7%

More likely to SUPPORT 6.3% More likely to OPPOSE 70.0% Makes no difference 17.0% Unsure/Refused 6.7% Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 Washington DC (202) 559-0270

4.1% 56.8% 24.3% 14.9%

More likely to SUPPORT 4.1% More likely to OPPOSE 56.8% Makes no difference 24.3% Unsure/refused 14.9%

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Probolsky Research 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 Newport Beach CA 92660

64.7% Become More Likely to Oppose

The Act knowing the proposed development includes a winery and luxury resort

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Question: Since 2000, the Tribe has acquired property in Sonoma County. This property, which totals approximately 511 acres, is planned to be used for tribal governmental and community facilities, and future housing for Tribe members. The proposed development by the Lytton Rancheria also includes building a 200,000 case per year winery and a large-scale 200-room luxury resort. Does knowing this make you more likely to support or more likely to oppose the Lytton Rancheria Homelands Act of 2017, which would place lands in Sonoma County into trust with the federal government as part of the reservation of the Lytton Rancheria? If it makes no difference to you, just say so.

How does this affect those who initially opposed? How does this affect those who were initially unsure? 1.2% 86.0% 11.0% 1.7%

More likely to SUPPORT 1.2% More likely to OPPOSE 86.0% Makes no difference 11.0% Unsure/refused 1.7%

9.0% 64.7% 20.0% 6.3%

More likely to SUPPORT 9.0% More likely to OPPOSE 64.7% Makes no difference 20.0% Unsure/Refused 6.3% Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 Washington DC (202) 559-0270

14.9% 45.9% 27.0% 12.2%

More likely to SUPPORT 14.9% More likely to OPPOSE 45.9% Makes no difference 27.0% Unsure/refused 12.2%

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Probolsky Research 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 Newport Beach CA 92660

61% Become More Likely to Oppose

Knowing the Lytton Tribe has a profitable casino and gaming revenue of over $260 million

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Question: The Lytton Tribe have a very profitable casino in Contra Costa County and have gaming revenue of over $260 million dollars per year. The Tribe has only 277 members, that’s nearly $1 million dollars for per year for each tribal member. Does knowing this make you more likely to support or more likely to oppose the Lytton Rancheria Homelands Act of 2017, which would place lands in Sonoma County into trust with the federal government as part of the reservation of the Lytton Rancheria? If it makes no difference to you, just say so.

How does this affect those who initially opposed? How does this affect those who were initially unsure? 0.6% 76.7% 21.5% 1.2%

More likely to SUPPORT 0.6% More likely to OPPOSE 76.7% Makes no difference 21.5% Unsure/refused 1.2%

7.0% 61.0% 27.7% 4.3%

More likely to SUPPORT 7.0% More likely to OPPOSE 61.0% Makes no difference 27.7% Unsure/Refused 4.3% Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 Washington DC (202) 559-0270

5.4% 45.9% 35.1% 13.5%

More likely to SUPPORT 5.4% More likely to OPPOSE 45.9% Makes no difference 35.1% Unsure/refused 13.5%

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Probolsky Research 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 Newport Beach CA 92660

Pro-Lytton Message Testing

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Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 Washington DC (202) 559-0270

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Probolsky Research 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 Newport Beach CA 92660

31.3% Become More Likely to Oppose

The Act knowing it would restore land & provide housing to tribal members

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Question: In 1961, the federal government illegally terminated the Lytton Rancheria, and the tribe lost its lands and was left without means of supporting itself. The Lytton Rancheria Homelands Acts of 2017 would restore land to the tribe so they can provide housing to its tribal members. Does knowing this make you more likely to support or more likely to oppose the Lytton Rancheria Homelands Act of 2017, which would place lands in Sonoma County into trust with the federal government as part of the reservation of the Lytton Rancheria? If it makes no difference to you, just say so.

How does this affect those who initially opposed? How does this affect those who were initially unsure? 9.3% 45.9% 39.0% 5.8%

More likely to SUPPORT 9.3% More likely to OPPOSE 45.9% Makes no difference 39.0% Unsure/refused 5.8%

27.0% 31.3% 34.0% 7.7%

More likely to SUPPORT 27.0% More likely to OPPOSE 31.3% Makes no difference 34.0% Unsure/Refused 7.7% Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 Washington DC (202) 559-0270

35.1% 16.2% 33.8% 14.9%

More likely to SUPPORT 35.1% More likely to OPPOSE 16.2% Makes no difference 33.8% Unsure/refused 14.9%

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Probolsky Research 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 Newport Beach CA 92660

31% Become More Likely to Oppose the

Act knowing the Lytton Rancheria offered to pay the cost of construction for a swimming pool in Keiser Park

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Question: In 2015, the Lytton Rancheria Tribe offered to pay the cost of construction for a swimming pool facility in Keiser Park. Does knowing this make you more likely to support or more likely to oppose the Lytton Rancheria Homelands Act of 2017, which would place lands in Sonoma County into trust with the federal government as part of the reservation of the Lytton Rancheria? If it makes no difference to you, just say so.

How does this affect those who initially opposed? How does this affect those who were initially unsure? 6.4% 45.9% 45.9% 1.7%

More likely to SUPPORT 6.4% More likely to OPPOSE 45.9% Makes no difference 45.9% Unsure/refused 1.7%

20.0% 31.0% 45.3% 3.7%

More likely to SUPPORT 20.0% More likely to OPPOSE 31.0% Makes no difference 45.3% Unsure/Refused 3.7% Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 Washington DC (202) 559-0270

28.4% 10.8% 54.1% 6.8%

More likely to SUPPORT 28.4% More likely to OPPOSE 10.8% Makes no difference 54.1% Unsure/refused 6.8%

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Probolsky Research 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 Newport Beach CA 92660

31% Become More Likely to Oppose

The Act knowing the Lytton Band has agreed to several charitable donations

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Question: The Lytton Band has agreed to pay $6 million to the County of Sonoma, $1 million to Windsor Unified School District and almost half a million dollars to the Windsor Fire Protection District when and if the 511 acres of land is taken into trust for the Lytton. The Tribe says they will continue to partner with the local community to support and invest in local causes and initiatives. Does knowing this make you more likely to support or more likely to oppose the Lytton Rancheria Homelands Act of 2017, which would place lands in Sonoma County into trust with the federal government as part of the reservation of the Lytton Rancheria? If it makes no difference to you, just say so.

How does this affect those who initially opposed? How does this affect those who were initially unsure? 7.0% 47.1% 42.4% 3.5%

More likely to SUPPORT 7.0% More likely to OPPOSE 47.1% Makes no difference 42.4% Unsure/refused 3.5%

27.3% 31.0% 36.0% 5.7%

More likely to SUPPORT 27.3% More likely to OPPOSE 31.0% Makes no difference 36.0% Unsure/Refused 5.7% Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 Washington DC (202) 559-0270

44.6% 14.9% 28.4% 12.2%

More likely to SUPPORT 44.6% More likely to OPPOSE 14.9% Makes no difference 28.4% Unsure/refused 12.2%

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27.3% Become More Likely to Oppose the

Act knowing that if the Act were to become law, casino operation would not be allowed

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Question: If the Lytton Rancheria Homelands Act of 2017 were to become law, the Lytton Rancheria would not be allowed to operate a casino on any of the lands just outside Windsor taken into trust now or in the future. Does knowing this make you more likely to support

  • r more likely to oppose the Lytton Rancheria Homelands Act of 2017, which would place lands in Sonoma County into trust with the

federal government as part of the reservation of the Lytton Rancheria? If it makes no difference to you, just say so.

How does this affect those who initially opposed? How does this affect those who were initially unsure? 21.5% 36.6% 39.5% 2.3%

More likely to SUPPORT 21.5% More likely to OPPOSE 36.6% Makes no difference 39.5% Unsure/refused 2.3%

33.0% 27.3% 34.0% 5.7%

More likely to SUPPORT 33.0% More likely to OPPOSE 27.3% Makes no difference 34.0% Unsure/Refused 5.7% Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 Washington DC (202) 559-0270

43.2% 14.9% 29.7% 12.2%

More likely to SUPPORT 43.2% More likely to OPPOSE 14.9% Makes no difference 29.7% Unsure/refused 12.2%

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Probolsky Research 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 Newport Beach CA 92660

The Lytton Rancheria Homelands Act of 2017 (Informed)

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Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 Washington DC (202) 559-0270

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SLIDE 34

Probolsky Research 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 Newport Beach CA 92660

Opposition Grows by Almost 20% Among

Windsor residents

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18.0% 57.3% 24.7% 14.3% 76.7% 9.0% Support Oppose Unsure/Refused Initial Informed Initial Informed Initial Informed Question: Knowing what you know now, do you support or oppose House Resolution 597 also known as the Lytton Rancheria Homelands Act of 2017?

Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 Washington DC (202) 559-0270

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SLIDE 35

Probolsky Research 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 Newport Beach CA 92660

Fairness Remains a Top Reason Why Some

Voters support the Lytton Rancheria Homelands Act of 2017

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Question: What is the top reason why you would support the Lytton Rancheria Homelands Act of 2017? 58.1% 11.6% 7.0% 4.7% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 11.6% 2.3% It is fair for the Tribe Promotes diversity/Equity/Equality Generally a good idea Growth Housing/Affordability Don't mind development No issues Other Don't know/Refused

Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 Washington DC (202) 559-0270

*ASKED OF THOSE WHO ANSWERED “SUPPORT” TO Q29

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SLIDE 36

Probolsky Research 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 Newport Beach CA 92660

Unfair Use of Land is Top Reason Why Some

Residents oppose the Lytton Rancheria Homelands Act of 2017

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Question: What is the top reason why you would oppose the Lytton Rancheria Homelands Act of 2017?

Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 Washington DC (202) 559-0270

*ASKED OF THOSE WHO ANSWERED “OPPOSE” TO Q29 14.3% 12.6% 10.9% 9.1% 9.1% 8.7% 7.0% 4.8% 3.0% 2.2% 2.2% 1.7% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 7.8% 0.0%

Unfair use of the land/It's not their land Traffic/Transportation Growth/Population/Overdevelopment Issues Casino General dislike Environmental issues Takes away space/Too much housing construction Residents are not following the rules/Laws Negative impact directly on Windsor All of the above/Too many reasons Impact on the green belt Infrastructure Money issues/Finances The residents will take over Windsor Don't want the Lytton Rancheria Homelands Act Crime Government issues Not needed No issues Other Don't know/Refused

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Probolsky Research 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 Newport Beach CA 92660

Town Councils’ Performance in Representing Residents’ View on the Lytton Land Trust Issue

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Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 Washington DC (202) 559-0270

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SLIDE 38

Probolsky Research 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 Newport Beach CA 92660

27% Say the Town Council’s Performance in

Representing residents’ views on this issue is “Poor/Very Poor”

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Question: How would you rate the Windsor Town Councils’ performance in representing your views on the Lytton land to trust issue? 22.4% 15.0% 27.0% 35.7% Excellent/Good Fair Poor/Very Poor Unsure/Refused

Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 Washington DC (202) 559-0270

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SLIDE 39

Thank You.

Opinion Research on Elections and Public Policy

Probolsky Research 3990 Westerly Place Suite 185 Newport Beach CA 92660 San Francisco (415) 870-8150 Newport Beach (949) 855-6400 Washington DC (202) 559-0270