Toward a 35-Year North American Precipitation and Ground Surface - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Toward a 35-Year North American Precipitation and Ground Surface - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Toward a 35-Year North American Precipitation and Ground Surface Reanalysis International Symposium on Regional Reanalysis, Bonn, Germany Nicolas Gasset 1 , Vincent Fortin 2 , tienne Gaborit 1 , Marco Carrera 3 , Milena Dimitrijevic 3 , Guy Roy

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SLIDE 1

Toward a 35-Year North American Precipitation and Ground Surface Reanalysis

International Symposium on Regional Reanalysis, Bonn, Germany Nicolas Gasset1, Vincent Fortin2, Étienne Gaborit1, Marco Carrera3, Milena Dimitrijevic3, Guy Roy1 and Normand Gagnon1

1Meteorological Service of Canada, ECCC 2Institut de recherche d'Hydro-Québec, HQ 3Meteorological Research Division, ECCC

July 17th 2018

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SLIDE 2

Page 2 – 27 August 2018

Motivations

  • Needs for long term precipitation and ground surface

analysis datasets at higher resolution:

– Better understand processes, regional climatic studies,

  • ptimum resource management, model improvement, ...
  • However

– Dedicated products: not ‘yet’ available for North America – Current long term reanalysis: too coarse space/time resolution, limited available variables, … – CMC analysis: too short period of time, non-uniform in time/ space (changes in the operational models)

  • But, models and data available to produce such a

precipitation and surface analysis at an accessible cost

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SLIDE 3

Page 3 – 27 August 2018

Methodology

GEM RDRS (15 km) atmospheric model GEM GDRS (50 km) atmospheric model

ERA-Interim: 1979 to today (~80km/6h)

Precipitation and surface data assimilation: CaPA and CaLDAS

Surface

  • bservations

GEM-Surf (50 km) surface model Initialisation + forcing Initialisation Assimilation

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SLIDE 4

Page 4 – 27 August 2018

GEM Reforecast Configuration

  • Global: GDRS

– GEPS reforecast control member config. – GEM 4.8-LTS, GU grid, 50-km – 12-h cycle/24-h reforecast – Possible to couple with CaLDAS

  • Regional: RDRS

– Modified REPS control member

  • config. (cover Arctic Ocean)

– GEM 4.8-LTS, LAM, 15-km – 12-h cycle/24-h reforecast – Coupled with CaLDAS/CaPA RDRS GEM domain

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Page 5 – 27 August 2018

CaLDAS/CaPA Configuration

  • Online precipitation and surface

analysis - CaLDAS/CaPA

– North-America, 15-km, 3-h (part of Europe possible) – CaLDAS-ISBA-Screen/OI – CaPA 6-h pcp analysis – 06-18h GEM forcings

  • A posteriori 24-h pcp analysis
  • Observations: surface obs.

– ECCC Operational/Climat archive – ISD (NOAA DS463.3) – TDL (NOAA DS472.0) – Mesonet Québec, OPG Ontario – AHCCD AdjDlyRS North-America CaLDAS domain

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Page 6 – 27 August 2018

Impact of surface assimilation on GEM

  • Simple reforecast and

dynamic downscaling (no surface analysis)

– Develop important errors

  • Surface analysis coupling

– Improve surface and atmospheric results high above the ground (600 mb)

Final results inline with

  • perational model

(but much less expensive to obtain)

Summer Results, 24h, North America T - Td T GEM+CaLDAS/CaPA GEM

Operational model (10-km) Reforecast (15-km) without (left) and with (right) CaLDAS coupling

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Page 7 – 27 August 2018

RDRS vs Operational: T/Td (2 m, 06-18h)

Dew point Temperature North America, SYNOP

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Page 8 – 27 August 2018

RDRS vs Operational: T/Td (2 m, 06-18h)

  • Avg. RMSE change (%)

DJF MAM JJA SON

S Y N O P North America plus Td 10.90 12.37 8.28 8.97 T 8.61 5.39 3.80 8.91 Alaska plus Canadian Arctic Td 11.58 14.68 22.21 14.30 T 11.32 12.72 5.14 13.83 Canada Td 8.89 11.85 9.57 7.30 T 2.81 2.12 1.59 5.12 Canada East Td 1.81 6.55 8.52 2.83 T

  • 2.42
  • 5.74
  • 1.64

1.75 Canada West Td 13.71 14.45 6.29 7.89 T 5.55 6.50 2.88 5.35 M E T A R United States of America Td 9.99 4.23 0.83 5.59 T 13.20 6.81 7.11 10.23 United States of America East Td 6.63 6.17 3.43 4.33 T 8.04 3.83 4.86 4.81 United States of America West Td 15.05 1.13

  • 2.30

7.59 T 20.57 11.70 9.96 16.95

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Page 9 – 27 August 2018

RDRS (06-18h) vs. ERA5 vs ERA-Int.

Dew point Temperature Bias Bias STD STD

2012 2013 2014 2011 2012 2013 2014 2011 2012 2013 2014 2011 2012 2013 2014 2011

Canada, SYNOP

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Page 10 – 27 August 2018

CaLDAS vs. ERA5 (T2m Summer)

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Page 11 – 27 August 2018

CaLDAS vs. ERA5 (space+time)

Dew point Temperature

Spring BIAS STD RMSD Alaska_plus_Canadian_Arctic

  • 0.32

2.82 2.84 Canada_East

  • 0.55

1.99 2.06 Canada_West

  • 0.42

2.08 2.12 United_States_of_America_East

  • 0.28

1.42 1.45 United_States_of_America_West

  • 0.73

2.16 2.27 Summer BIAS STD RMSD Alaska_plus_Canadian_Arctic 0.05 2.05 2.05 Canada_East 0.06 1.63 1.63 Canada_West

  • 0.23

1.96 1.97 United_States_of_America_East

  • 0.40

1.43 1.49 United_States_of_America_West

  • 0.85

2.20 2.36 Autumn BIAS STD RMSD Alaska_plus_Canadian_Arctic

  • 0.58

2.77 2.83 Canada_East

  • 0.37

1.50 1.55 Canada_West

  • 0.46

1.98 2.04 United_States_of_America_East

  • 0.37

1.33 1.38 United_States_of_America_West

  • 0.84

2.25 2.40 Winter BIAS STD RMSD Alaska_plus_Canadian_Arctic

  • 0.55

3.78 3.82 Canada_East

  • 0.15

2.06 2.06 Canada_West

  • 0.14

2.26 2.26 United_States_of_America_East

  • 0.21

1.43 1.45 United_States_of_America_West

  • 0.67

2.54 2.62 Spring BIAS STD RMSD Alaska_plus_Canadian_Arctic 0.15 2.68 2.69 Canada_East

  • 0.07

1.85 1.86 Canada_West

  • 0.24

1.91 1.92 United_States_of_America_East

  • 0.03

1.73 1.73 United_States_of_America_West

  • 0.05

3.17 3.17 Summer BIAS STD RMSD Alaska_plus_Canadian_Arctic

  • 0.12

1.96 1.96 Canada_East

  • 0.02

1.60 1.60 Canada_West

  • 0.35

1.81 1.84 United_States_of_America_East 0.10 1.63 1.64 United_States_of_America_West 0.04 3.09 3.09 Autumn BIAS STD RMSD Alaska_plus_Canadian_Arctic

  • 0.28

2.52 2.53 Canada_East

  • 0.18

1.46 1.48 Canada_West

  • 0.43

1.82 1.87 United_States_of_America_East 0.14 1.51 1.51 United_States_of_America_West

  • 0.12

2.72 2.72 Winter BIAS STD RMSD Alaska_plus_Canadian_Arctic

  • 0.09

3.33 3.33 Canada_East

  • 0.10

1.98 1.98 Canada_West

  • 0.29

2.11 2.13 United_States_of_America_East 0.07 1.53 1.53 United_States_of_America_West

  • 0.15

2.76 2.77

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Page 12 – 27 August 2018

CaPA with AdjDlyRS (2010-2014)

Compared with Canadian manual SYNOP Winter Summer

Without AdjDlyRS With AdjDlyRS

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Page 13 – 27 August 2018

CaPA24h vs Stage IV/GPCP (2010-2015)

RDRS-CaPA24h MPE STAGE IV GPCP

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Page 14 – 27 August 2018

CaPA24h vs Stage IV/GPCP (2010-2015)

RDRS-CaPA24h MPE STAGE IV GPCP

CaPA retrospective analysis available publicly: (North America, 24-h, 15-km, 5-years) http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/science/outgoing/capa.grib/ hindcast/capa_hindcast_rdrs_v1/

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Page 15 – 27 August 2018

CaLDAS: Soil water content evaluation

In the literature (vs. surface obs.):

  • Bias:

– SMOS < abs(0.025) m3/m3 – MERRA-Land ~ -0.06 m3/m3 – ERA-Land ~ -0.08 m3/m3

  • RMSD:

– SMOS ~ 0.05-0.1 m3/m3 – MERRA-Land ~ 0.1 m3/m3 – ERA-Land ~ 0.13 m3/m3

Bias: 0.029 m3/m3 RMSD: 0.104 m3/m3

Obs. network nsta nrec Bias RMSD SCAN 450 3544212 -0.0054 0.1087 SNOTEL 499 2812903 -0.0128 0.1239 PBO_H2O 137 128791 0.0048 0.0837 USCRN 228 2262235 -0.0018 0.1018

CaLDAS vs SMOS Satellite retrievals Surface observations

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Page 16 – 27 August 2018

Hydrology applications: streamflows

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Page 17 – 27 August 2018

Production and computational cost

Steps to come (FY 2018-2019)

  • Publication to peer-reviewed journal
  • Proposition to hydrometeorological prediction forum
  • Tech. transfer from R&D to operations
  • Production

Computational cost for 35 years = 7 x (5 years + 1 year init.)

~ 110 days on 7 x (128+128+20) = 1900 cores (7 track in parallel)

~ 630 days on (128+128+20) = 280 cores (sequential)

~ 200 000 days on 1 core 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2015

Initialisation Reanalysis

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Page 18 – 27 August 2018

Public access to Reanalysis (future) (and all CMC surface related products)

Juliane Mai, Kurt C. Kornelsen, Bryan Tolson, Paulin Coulibaly, François Anctil, Vincent Fortin, Michael Leahy, Brent Hall

http://www.caspar-data.ca

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Page 19 – 27 August 2018

Thanks for your attention Questions and/or comments?

This project is funded by the International Joint Commission (IJC) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) Contact: nicolas.gasset@canada.ca