Tourism and Property Trends for Hervey Bay
“Study the past if you would divine the future” Confucius (550-478BC)
Property Cycles � The seven year property cycle is apparent in most western capitalist economies such as USA, Canada, UK, NZ and Australia � The length of the cycle is a function of housing supply, consumer behaviour and financial regulation (not necessarily interest rates!) � Prices increases usually occur in quantum lifts
Anatomy of a Residential Property Cycle Prices Sales Volume 40 35 30 Amplitude 25 20 15 10 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Years Vendors do not Speculative “rush” buying Vendors who Production of accept that boom is occurs for fear of prices Demand need to sell new allotments over – so they over- increasing even further. outweighs finally accept and houses price, sales volume Prices escalate rapidly. supply a lower price, nose-dives. falls some are Stock becomes forced to sell depleted until by mortgagee almost exhausted
BRISBANE CITY UNIT SALES CYCLE No. of unit sales 7000 $500,000 No. of Sales $450,000 Average Price $ 6000 $400,000 5000 $350,000 $300,000 4000 $250,000 3000 $200,000 $150,000 2000 $100,000 1000 $50,000 0 $0 D80 J81 D81 J82 D82 J83 D83 J84 D84 J85 D85 J86 D86 J87 D87 J88 D88 J89 D89 J90 D90 J91 D91 J92 D92 J93 D93 J94 D94 J95 D95 J96 D96 J97 D97 J98 D98 J99 D99 J00 D00 J01 D01 J02 D02 J03 D03 J04 D04 J05 D05 J06 D06 J07 D07 J08 D08 Half Year Ending Source: Qld Dept of Natural Resources, Midwood QLD Investment Report
GOLD COAST HOUSE SALES VS STANDARD VARIABLE HOME LOAN INTEREST RATES 7000 18 Int Rates % No. of Sales 16 6000 14 5000 12 4000 No. of Sales Interest % 10 8 3000 6 2000 4 1000 2 0 0 Half Year Ending Source: Qld Dept Natural Resources, RBA
HERVEY BAY CITY HISTORICAL HOUSE SALES 4,000 $350,000 3,500 $300,000 3,000 $250,000 Median Sale Price No. of Sales 2,500 $200,000 2,000 $150,000 1,500 $100,000 1,000 $50,000 500 0 $0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 No. of Sales Median $ Source: PDSLive
Housing Affordability – Compare the Prices Median House Growth % Location Price Yr to Sept 08 07-08 Noosa $785,000 23 Gold Coast $505,000 10 Brisbane $495,000 15 Whitsundays $395,000 13 Gladstone $385,000 14 Mackay $380,000 0 Cairns $375,000 6 Townsville $365,000 7 Fraser Coast $310,000 9 Source: REIQ
New Apartment Selling Prices Project Location Price per sqm Ramada Hervey Bay $4,500 Moreton View Redcliffe $4,700 Harmony Labrador (GC) $5,000 Horton Apartments Maroochydore $5,000 Marine Cove Redcliffe $5,300 Point Plaza Woody Point $5,300 Surf 120 Broadbeach $5,500 Silvertsone Tweed Heads $5,800 Allisee Hollywell (GC) $6,200 Emporio Maroochydore $6,200 Coco Mooloolaba $6,900 Coast Marine Parade Labrador (GC) $7,000 Rumba Caloundra $8,500 Source: Midwood QLD Investment Report
Location Location Location! � The most important attribute of Hervey Bay is that it is one of the few north facing beaches in Queensland � Easily accessible from its closest capital cities � Gateway to Fraser Island � Growing industries in business, tourism and construction
Hervey Bay/Maryborough Population Growth � In 2006 the population was 83,024 with 5.3% growth over 2005 (the highest amongst Australia’s 70 largest cities) � As at February 2009 the population was an estimated 90,300 � Projected growth rate at 3.4%pa � The region is estimated to grow to 100,000 in 2012
Hervey Bay/Maryborough Population Growth 30,000 100,000 90,300 in Feb 2009 83,024 70,779 25,000 67,259 53,849 20,000 43,090 Logarithmic Scale 37,932 15,000 31 ,831 27,547 26,525 10,000 5,000 0 10,000 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 Source: Midwood Queensland Investment Report
Queensland Population � In 2006 the population was 4,046,880 with a growth rate of 2.1% over 2001-06 � As at February 2009 the population was an estimated 4,266,000 � Projected growth rate at 2.0%pa � The state is estimated to grow to 4,496,000 by 2011
QLD Population Growth 800,000 10,000,000 Logarithmic Scale 700,000 4,266,000 in Feb 2009 600,000 500,000 4,046,880 3,655,1 39 3,368,850 2,977,81 0 400,000 2,587,31 5 2,295,1 23 300,000 2,037,1 97 1 ,827,065 1 ,674,324 200,000 100,000 1,000,000 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 Census Year Source: Midwood QLD Investment Report
Tourism Trends � Tourism into Hervey Bay has skyrocketed since the airport expansion was completed in 2005 � Air passenger movements have increased by 25.5%pa since 2000 and at 79%pa over the past three years � Direct regular weekly flights from Sydney by Qantas Link, Jetstar & Virgin are now operational � Connections from Melbourne are imminent
Total Passenger Movements - Hervey Bay Airport 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 / / / / / / / / / 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Source: Hervey Bay City Council
Hervey Bay/Maryborough Accommodation Statistics Rooms Avail Bed Spaces Occupancy (%) Nights Sold Takings ($m) Rates per night Hotels Sep-07 Qtr 417 1,291 56.8 21,725 2.0 $93.09 Sep-08 Qtr 399 1,265 55.6 20,346 2.0 $99.33 % chg -4% -2% -2% -6% 0% 7% Motels Sep-07 Qtr 815 2,411 67.5 50,587 3.8 $74.93 Sep-08 Qtr 810 2,418 65.6 48,907 4.0 $81.06 % chg -1% 0% -3% -3% 5% 8% Serviced Apts Sep-07 Qtr 782 2,846 57.8 41,587 5.3 $127.70 Sep-08 Qtr 855 3,042 56.1 44,095 5.6 $127.36 % chg 9% 7% -3% 6% 6% 0% Total Sep-07 Qtr 2,014 6,548 61.5 113,899 11.1 $97.66 Sep-08 Qtr 2,064 6,725 59.7 113,348 11.6 $102.35 % chg 2% 3% -3% 0% 5% 5% Source: ABS 8635.3.55.001
Discretionary Spending Growth � Apart from tourist numbers, the tax paying population has increased at the rate of 5.6%pa between 1997-2003 � This means that spending growth is not just reliant upon retirees
Hervey Bay/Marybrough Half Yearly Dwelling Approvals Units Houses 1,000 7 Year Av Total 800 600 400 200 0 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 08 Source: ABS 8731.0
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