Tourism and Property Trends for Hervey Bay Study the past if you - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Tourism and Property Trends for Hervey Bay

“Study the past if you would divine the future”

Confucius (550-478BC)

Property Cycles

The seven year property cycle is apparent in

most western capitalist economies such as USA, Canada, UK, NZ and Australia

The length of the cycle is a function of housing

supply, consumer behaviour and financial regulation (not necessarily interest rates!)

Prices increases usually occur in quantum lifts

Anatomy of a Residential Property Cycle

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Years Amplitude

Prices Sales Volume

Vendors do not accept that boom is

• ver – so they over-

price, sales volume falls Vendors who need to sell finally accept a lower price, some are forced to sell by mortgagee Production of new allotments and houses nose-dives. Stock becomes depleted until almost exhausted Demand

• utweighs

supply Speculative “rush” buying

• ccurs for fear of prices

increasing even further. Prices escalate rapidly.

BRISBANE CITY UNIT SALES CYCLE

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000

D80 J81 D81 J82 D82 J83 D83 J84 D84 J85 D85 J86 D86 J87 D87 J88 D88 J89 D89 J90 D90 J91 D91 J92 D92 J93 D93 J94 D94 J95 D95 J96 D96 J97 D97 J98 D98 J99 D99 J00 D00 J01 D01 J02 D02 J03 D03 J04 D04 J05 D05 J06 D06 J07 D07 J08 D08

Half Year Ending Source: Qld Dept of Natural Resources, Midwood QLD Investment Report $0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000 $450,000 $500,000

• No. of unit sales
• No. of Sales

Average Price $

GOLD COAST HOUSE SALES VS STANDARD VARIABLE HOME LOAN INTEREST RATES

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Half Year Ending Source: Qld Dept Natural Resources, RBA

• No. of Sales

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

Interest %

Int Rates %

• No. of Sales

HERVEY BAY CITY HISTORICAL HOUSE SALES

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: PDSLive

• No. of Sales

$0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 Median Sale Price

• No. of Sales

Median $

Housing Affordability – Compare the Prices

Source: REIQ

9 $310,000 Fraser Coast 7 $365,000 Townsville 6 $375,000 Cairns $380,000 Mackay 14 $385,000 Gladstone 13 $395,000 Whitsundays 15 $495,000 Brisbane 10 $505,000 Gold Coast 23 $785,000 Noosa Growth % 07-08 Median House Price Yr to Sept 08 Location

New Apartment Selling Prices

Source: Midwood QLD Investment Report

$8,500 Caloundra Rumba $7,000 Labrador (GC) Coast Marine Parade $6,900 Mooloolaba Coco $6,200 Maroochydore Emporio $6,200 Hollywell (GC) Allisee $5,800 Tweed Heads Silvertsone $5,500 Broadbeach Surf 120 $5,300 Woody Point Point Plaza $5,300 Redcliffe Marine Cove $5,000 Maroochydore Horton Apartments $5,000 Labrador (GC) Harmony $4,700 Redcliffe Moreton View $4,500 Hervey Bay Ramada Price per sqm Location Project

Location Location Location!

The most important attribute of Hervey Bay is

that it is one of the few north facing beaches in Queensland

Easily accessible from its closest capital cities Gateway to Fraser Island Growing industries in business, tourism and

construction

Hervey Bay/Maryborough Population Growth

In 2006 the population was 83,024 with 5.3%

growth over 2005 (the highest amongst Australia’s 70 largest cities)

As at February 2009 the population was an

estimated 90,300

Projected growth rate at 3.4%pa The region is estimated to grow to 100,000 in

2012

Hervey Bay/Maryborough Population Growth

31 ,831 37,932 43,090 53,849 70,779 27,547 67,259 26,525 83,024

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011

Source: Midwood Queensland Investment Report

10,000 100,000 Logarithmic Scale 90,300 in Feb 2009

Queensland Population

In 2006 the population was 4,046,880 with

a growth rate of 2.1% over 2001-06

As at February 2009 the population was

an estimated 4,266,000

Projected growth rate at 2.0%pa The state is estimated to grow to

4,496,000 by 2011

QLD Population Growth

1 ,827,065 1 ,674,324 2,037,1 97 2,295,1 23 2,587,31 5 3,655,1 39 2,977,81 3,368,850

100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 Census Year 1,000,000 10,000,000

Source: Midwood QLD Investment Report

Logarithmic Scale

4,046,880

4,266,000 in Feb 2009

Tourism Trends

Tourism into Hervey Bay has skyrocketed since

the airport expansion was completed in 2005

Air passenger movements have increased by

25.5%pa since 2000 and at 79%pa over the past three years

Direct regular weekly flights from Sydney by

Qantas Link, Jetstar & Virgin are now

• perational

Connections from Melbourne are imminent

Total Passenger Movements - Hervey Bay Airport 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 1 9 9 9 / 2 2 / 2 1 2 1 / 2 2 2 2 / 2 3 2 3 / 2 4 2 4 / 2 5 2 5 / 2 6 2 6 / 2 7 2 7 / 2 8

Source: Hervey Bay City Council

Hervey Bay/Maryborough Accommodation Statistics

Source: ABS 8635.3.55.001 5% 5% 0%

• 3%

3% 2% % chg $102.35 11.6 113,348 59.7 6,725 2,064 Sep-08 Qtr $97.66 11.1 113,899 61.5 6,548 2,014 Sep-07 Qtr Total 0% 6% 6%

• 3%

7% 9% % chg $127.36 5.6 44,095 56.1 3,042 855 Sep-08 Qtr $127.70 5.3 41,587 57.8 2,846 782 Sep-07 Qtr Serviced Apts 8% 5%

• 3%
• 3%

0%

• 1%

% chg $81.06 4.0 48,907 65.6 2,418 810 Sep-08 Qtr $74.93 3.8 50,587 67.5 2,411 815 Sep-07 Qtr Motels 7% 0%

• 6%
• 2%
• 2%
• 4%

% chg $99.33 2.0 20,346 55.6 1,265 399 Sep-08 Qtr $93.09 2.0 21,725 56.8 1,291 417 Sep-07 Qtr Hotels Rates per night Takings ($m) Nights Sold Occupancy (%) Bed Spaces Rooms Avail

Discretionary Spending Growth

Apart from tourist numbers, the tax paying

population has increased at the rate of 5.6%pa between 1997-2003

This means that spending growth is not

just reliant upon retirees

Hervey Bay/Marybrough Half Yearly Dwelling Approvals

200 400 600 800 1,000 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 08 Source: ABS 8731.0

Units Houses 7 Year Av Total

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