Tomorrow’s Railway and Climate Change Adapta7on (T1009)
Presenta7on for Transport Day Break-out session: Transport and Adapta7on to Climate Change: Impacts, Policy, and Finance
Sunday 6th December 2015
Michael Woods, John Dora RSSB
Tomorrows Railway and Climate Change Adapta7on (T1009) Presenta7on - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Tomorrows Railway and Climate Change Adapta7on (T1009) Presenta7on for Transport Day Break-out session: Transport and Adapta7on to Climate Change: Impacts, Policy, and Finance Sunday 6 th December 2015 Michael Woods, John Dora RSSB What is
Presenta7on for Transport Day Break-out session: Transport and Adapta7on to Climate Change: Impacts, Policy, and Finance
Sunday 6th December 2015
Michael Woods, John Dora RSSB
6 December 2015
A RSSB funded research study (ref T1009) sponsored by the Technical Strategy Leadership Group. T1009 explores the need to increase the resilience of the GB railway in response to an7cipated changes in key climate variables. Phase 1: Comprehensive knowledge review and knowledge gap analysis. Phase 2: Improve knowledge of climate change vulnerabili7es and develop support tools to increase resilience of the GB railway.
6 December 2015
§ 1. Projected clima7c change in the UK over the next 50 years. § 2. Impacts of climate change and extreme weather on the railway. § 3. Ac7ons taken by GB rail industry in response to these poten7al impacts. § 4. Proposed future ac7ons, including 'quick wins' which can be implemented over the next few years. § 5. Requirements for addi7onal decision support frameworks, processes, and tools, to permit cost-effec7ve ac7on to be taken.
§ Phase 1 has answered the first three objec2ves, and addressed the fourth, while Phase 2 is now focussing on answering objec2ves four and five in more detail.
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www.rssb.co.uk/improving-industry-performance/climate-change-adapta7on
§ New climate change adapta.on page has been created on the RSSB website – summary of high level informa7on and gateway to further informa7on.
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www.sparkrail.org/pages/climatechange.aspx
§ New climate change adapta.on page
§ ~470 individual ‘records’ about climate change impacts and weather resilience relevant to GB railway (~700 references collated in Phase 1). § Phase 1 final report, execu.ve summary and research brief. § Communicated to rail industry via RSSB regular newslehers (eg ‘The Knowledge’).
6 December 2015
§ Over 120 recommenda7ons made in Phase 1 final report. § Dis7lled and priori7sed into 10 key areas of recommenda7ons by members
§ Short term recommenda7ons considered as poten7al ‘Quick Wins’. § All short, medium and long term recommenda7ons are being reviewed in Phase 2. § Phase 2 will also highlight areas of recommenda7ons not being addressed within the scope of T1009 which may form future research projects.
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NB All short, medium and long term recommenda2ons available in Phase 1 full report and execu2ve summary
6 December 2015
Quick Win Ac*on owner Compile a database of assets, including buildings, which are vulnerable to one
drought; fluvial flooding and/or coastal
the cri@cal rail temperature (CRT) register for stress free temperatures (SFT). Assess vulnerabili@es of assets including interdependencies and ‘knock
(High precipita-on, Low precipita-on, High sea levels and storm surges). Mostly Network Rail but of relevance to whole railway – therefore a guidance / good prac@ce document would be a first step towards consistency where commonality exists led by RSSB. Then a programme of assessment for individual duty holders. Opportunity to manage as one programme via RSSB as required by the industry. Must recognise that a lot of work in this area has been carried out by Network Rail in recent months.
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NB All short, medium and long term recommenda2ons are available in Phase 1 full report and execu2ve summary
T1009 Waterfront Presenta0on 12 November 2015
Phase 1 short term recommenda0on ‘Quick Wins’
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Quick Win Ac*on owner Compile a database of assets, including buildings, which are vulnerable to one
drought; fluvial flooding and/or coastal
the cri0cal rail temperature (CRT) register for stress free temperatures (SFT). Assess vulnerabili0es of assets including interdependencies and ‘knock
(High precipita-on, Low precipita-on, High sea levels and storm surges). Mostly Network Rail but of relevance to whole railway – therefore a guidance / good prac0ce document would be a first step towards consistency where commonality exists led by RSSB. Then a programme of assessment for individual duty holders. Opportunity to manage as one programme via RSSB as required by the industry. Must recognise that a lot of work in this area has been carried out by Network Rail in recent months.
NB All short, medium and long term recommenda-ons are available in Phase 1 full report and execu-ve summary
T1009 Waterfront Presenta0on 12 November 2015
Phase 1 medium term recommenda0on
§ Earthwork debris detec0on systems
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Impact example: Harbury landslip, January 2015
Climate change related risk for GB railway system Theme of recommendations Specific key recommendations (with relevant climate variables in brackets) Time scale for action System Changing patterns of precipitation with consequences for soil moisture levels and stability. Focus on lineside management issues which affect infrastructure and ‘weather and climate resilient’ design and management options with multiple benefits. Determine which earthworks debris detection systems are most effective (High precipitation, Low precipitation). Medium term Infrastructure
Example of how to manage hazards
T1009 Waterfront Presenta0on 12 November 2015
Phase 1 long term recommenda0on – example 3
§ Adap%ve pathways approach
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NB All short, medium and long term recommenda5ons are available in Phase 1 full report and execu5ve summary
Climate change related risk for GB railway system Theme of recommendations Specific key recommendations (with relevant climate variables in brackets) Time scale for action System Increased risk of flooding from heavy rainfall events, high sea levels and storm surges with consequences for resilience of infrastructure and assets. Adaptive pathways and lifecycle cost analysis for reducing vulnerability of infrastructure, assets and
Take an ‘adaptive pathways’ approach, such as that developed by the Thames Estuary 2100 project to the long term management of the GB railway to improve the resilience of infrastructure to flood risk and storm damage (High precipitation, High winds, High sea levels and storm surge). Long term Infrastructure
Source: TE2100 Plan, Nov 2012
6 December 2015
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§ Develop exis7ng infrastructure design and maintenance approaches, especially for earthworks. § Implement lifecycle cos7ng and adap7ve pathways approaches, including considera7on of re-rou7ng key routes. § Increase and integrate good quality data about assets, weather events and opera.ons to inform predic.ve modelling and response § Enhance the industry’s ability to model and predict the impacts of combined and successive weather events. § Improve communica.ons about weather events and climate change, throughout the industry. § Review all relevant design and opera7onal standards and guidance (ie ISO, BS, Eurocode, Network Rail, RIS).
Heat related non-work days for mitigating track buckle likelihood – 2040s
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6 December 2015
Task 1 looked at economic appraisal. Tradi7onal transport economic appraisal methodologies do not adequately assess spending decisions related to adapta7on and resilience.
DraF recommenda.ons A framework model for assessing climate change adapta7on strategies and op7ons within the rail industry based upon Cost Benefit Analyses. A future climate change resilience appraisal framework based upon the exis7ng comprehensive WebTAG and Green Book frameworks for taking investment decisions, with improved treatment and considera7on for example
analysis, uncertainty (unquan7fiable risk), missing informa7on, budget constraints, decision-making responsibility. The effort employed on appraisals should be propor7onate to the investment within the framework model.
6 December 2015
Task 2 found that similar countries are France, Netherlands, Belgium, Germany and Denmark. France appears as both a mid-21st century and end-21st century weather
draled on management of effects of flooding, heat and winter.
DraF recommenda.ons Coopera7on with analogue countries to discuss measures used to manage the effects of extreme weather could benefit the GB railway system.
6 December 2015
Task 3 found that the few metrics directly related to helping railway
climate change, focus on flooding and winter weather related issues. DraF recommenda.ons Develop robust ‘journey availability’ metric.
6 December 2015
systems-based risk and vulnerability
assessment tools in use.
representa7on of the railway and suggested how the railway can be grouped into a number of sub- systems.
interac7ons and interdependencies between the sub-systems.
Strategic Operational Local/Specific Socio-Political System of Systems Model Nested Levels Economics & Finance Performance & Metrics Emergent Shared Understanding
DraF recommenda.ons Ensure a system of systems perspec7ve in systems-based risk and vulnerability assessment tools.
6 December 2015
This task - 5 - examined the relevance and applica7on of Geographic informa7on Systems (GIS) to climate change and extreme weather decision making. It reviewed exis7ng GIS based tools for iden7fica7on and assessment of risk and vulnerability for infrastructure assets.
DraF recommenda.ons Short term benefits can be realised from the applica7on of available weather suscep7bility maps for determina7on of vulnerable parts of the network. Such tools can be u7lised together with the significant data held by Network Rail, and from failure inves7ga7ons, of asset vulnerability to facilitate failure predic7on. Railway should be characterised as a system of systems in rela7on to vulnerability to weather effects and geographical features. Data must be compiled and communicated in a consistent way taking into account the three- dimensional nature and interconnec7vity of the
long term goals for decision making using GIS based vulnerability assessments has been compiled for considera7on.
6 December 2015
This task - 6 - has provided an overview of relevant policies, standards, procedures and prac7ses which are necessary for addressing climate change and weather impacts, and for delivery of railway system resilience in Great Britain.
DraF recommenda.ons Ensure process for review of the policies, procedures, and standards takes into account the systemic nature of climate change effects, and the need for standards that are consistent with
Introduce a collabora7ve cross-modal and cross-sectorial approach, working with relevant Government departments and agencies. Involve the GB railway in mul7-agency working, in the fields of:
Engage the GB railway with relevant mul7-agency forums to influence the development of European standards where climate change ini7a7ves are already in progress.
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Temperature Precipita7on Weather Events Sea Level Rise Extreme High Rail buckling Passenger Discomfort Extreme Low Ice build-on rolling stock Freeze thaw at cupngs Rapid Changes Lineside electronic equipment affec7ng power, signalling, telecomms
Extreme High Flooding Scour of Bridge Piers Landslips Extreme Winds Catenary failure Tree Fall Coastal Flooding eg: Dawlish BUT DON”T FORGET WALES etc!! Extreme Drought Dessica7on of clay forma7ons Increased Humidity Leaf contamina7on Loss of braking mu Loss of track circuits Lightning Interference with electronics EMC
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Phase 1 summary report Phase 1 final report Phase 1 appendices A-J Phase 2 being finalised
michael.woods@rssb.co.uk or johndora@johndoraconsul7ng.eu