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to climate change Elanus caeruleus - http://www.chassimages.com - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Oct 06, 2022 135 likes •490 views

P IERRE G AZRE | V INCENT D EVICTOR | ISEM M ONTPELLIER Linking species and community dynamics to explain bird responses R to climate change Elanus caeruleus - http://www.chassimages.com Context | Method |

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R PIERRE GAÜZÈRE | VINCENT DEVICTOR | ISEM MONTPELLIER

Elanus caeruleus - http://www.chassimages.com

Linking species and community dynamics to explain bird responses to climate change

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Climate Change & Biodiversity

NASA Instrumental temperature record, Goddard Institute for Space Studies

PARMESAN, 2006

Context | Method | Results | Conclusion

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Community Species

Ségrégation des échelles d’intégration

Context | Method | Results | Conclusion

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Community Species

Ségrégation des échelles d’intégration

Context | Method | Results | Conclusion

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?

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

Community Species

?

Context | Method | Results | Conclusion

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1

Temperature affects Birds Community Species contribution to the global trend

2

Underliying processes at stake

3

Context | Method | Results | Conclusion

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1989 to 2012 | 4418 Sites | >106 Observations | 114 species

FRENCH BREEDING BIRD SURVEY

Quentin Giraudon | Groupe Ornithologique du Roussillon

Context | Method | Results | Conclusion

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SLIDE 8

1.Temperature affects Birds Community

Context | Method | Results | Conclusion

STI value =18.4°C STI value = 12.4°C

« Species Thermal Index »

average temperature within the distribution area of a species

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A Community Weighted Mean of the « Species Thermal Index »

« COMMUNITY TEMPERATURE INDEX »

CTI

1.Temperature affects Birds Community

Context | Method | Results | Conclusion

At any point, CTI measures the thermic composition of the species assemblage

3 STI1 + 2 STI2 + STI3 + STI4 + STI5 3 + 2 + 1 + 1

CTI =

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CTI Temporal Trend

CTIy,s=  +  *YEAR + as + bs*YEARs + εy,s

Response Fixed Effects Random Effects Error

Linear Mixed Effects Model 1.Temperature affects Birds Community

Context | Method | Results | Conclusion

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CTI Temporal Trend Spring Temperature Variations

Response Time?

CTI y ~ Temp y + 0 an Temp y-1 + 1 an Temp y-2 + 2 ans Temp y-3 + 3 ans

Variable Selection based on AICc

1.Temperature affects Birds Community

Context | Method | Results | Conclusion

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Spring Temperature Variation in France

Context | Method | Results | Conclusion

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CTI Temporal Trend

Context | Method | Results | Conclusion

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14

CTI Temporal Trend Spring Temperature Variation

+ 2 years

Context | Method | Results | Conclusion

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SLIDE 15

+ 2 years

reproductive success survival local recruitment

JULLIARD ET AL., 2004; JIGUET ET AL., 2006

CTI Temporal Trend Spring Temperature Variation

Context | Method | Results | Conclusion

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TIME

1989 2012

C T I

  • 2. SPECIES CONTRIBUTION

Context | Method | Results | Conclusion

Davey et al, 2013

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TIME C T I

2012 1989

  • 2. SPECIES CONTRIBUTION

Context | Method | Results | Conclusion

Davey et al, 2013

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18

TIME

2012 1989

C T I

  • 2. SPECIES CONTRIBUTION

Context | Method | Results | Conclusion

Davey et al, 2013

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TIME

1989 2012

C T I

  • 2. SPECIES CONTRIBUTION

Context | Method | Results | Conclusion

Davey et al, 2013

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TIME

1989 2012

C T I

  • 2. SPECIES CONTRIBUTION

Context | Method | Results | Conclusion

Species Contribution to Community response

Davey et al, 2013

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  • 2. SPECIES CONTRIBUTION

Context | Method | Results | Conclusion

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Species Contribution to Community response

SPECIES TRAITS

Ecology Dispersion Life History

  • 3. PROCESSES AT STAKE

Context | Method | Results | Conclusion

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Niche Habitat Specialisation Thermal Maximum Habitat Dispersion Abilities Natal Dispersal Fly Migration Life History Traits Mass Generation Time Fecondity Nest Position

  • 3. PROCESSES AT STAKE

Context | Method | Results | Conclusion

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Niche Habitat Specialisation

*

Thermal Maximum

.

Habitat Dispersion Abilities Natal Dispersal

**

Fly Migration Life History Traits Mass Generation Time Fecondity Nest Position

  • 3. PROCESSES AT STAKE

Context | Method | Results | Conclusion

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Context | Method | Results | Conclusion

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Context | Method | Results | Conclusion

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SLIDE 27

Context | Method | Results | Conclusion

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SLIDE 28

Context | Method | Results | Conclusion

European Goldfinch Turtle Dove Eurasian Linnet Common Wood-Pigeon

Bad Dispersers Habitat Generalist « Low Response Species »

ANGERT & al. (2011) , Ecology letters JIGUET, F. & al.(2006) , Ecology letters BARNAGAUD & al.,(2012) , Plos One

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CONCLUSION

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1

Temperatures Community Composition

2 YEARS

Context | Method | Results | Conclusion

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2

Interspecific Variability within global response

1

Temperatures Community Composition

2 YEARS

Context | Method | Results | Conclusion

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3

Some traits seems particularly involved

2

Interspecific Variability

1

Temperatures Community Composition

2 YEARS

Context | Method | Results | Conclusion

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PIERRE GAÜZÈRE | VINCENT DEVICTOR | ISEM MONTPELLIER

Elanus caeruleus - http://www.chassimages.com

Linking species and community dynamics to explain bird responses to climate change

PARMESAN, C. (2006) Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, 37, 637–669. PARMESAN, C., GAINES, S. & GONZALEZ, L. (2005) Empirical perspectives on species borders: from traditional biogeography to global change. Oikos, 1. PARMESAN, C. & YOHE, G. (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature, 421, 37–42. JULLIARD, R., JIGUET, F. & COUVET, D. (2004) Evidence for the impact of global warming on the long-term population dynamics of common

  • birds. Proceedings. Biological sciences / The Royal Society,

ANGERT, A.L., CROZIER, L.G., RISSLER, L.J., GILMAN, S.E., TEWKSBURY, J.J. & CHUNCO, A.J. (2011) Do species’ traits predict recent shifts at expanding range edges? Ecology letters, 14, 677–689. BARNAGAUD, J.Y., DEVICTOR, V., JIGUET, F., BARBET-MASSIN, M., LE VIOL, I. & ARCHAUX, F. (2012) Relating habitat and climatic niches in birds. PloS one, 7

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QUELS SONT LES PROCESSUS IMPLIQUÉS DANS CES RÉPONSES SPÉCIFIQUES ?

3

RÉSULTATS & DISCUSSION