Third quarter 2017 results Re-shaping Shell, to create a world-class - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

third quarter 2017 results
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

Third quarter 2017 results Re-shaping Shell, to create a world-class - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Third quarter 2017 results Re-shaping Shell, to create a world-class investment case Royal Dutch Shell plc November 2, 2017 #makethefuture Royal Dutch Shell November 2, 2017 Jessica Uhl Chief Financial Officer Royal Dutch Shell Royal Dutch


slide-1
SLIDE 1

Royal Dutch Shell November 2, 2017

Royal Dutch Shell plc November 2, 2017

Third quarter 2017 results

Re-shaping Shell, to create a world-class investment case

#makethefuture

slide-2
SLIDE 2

Royal Dutch Shell November 2, 2017

Jessica Uhl Chief Financial Officer

Royal Dutch Shell

slide-3
SLIDE 3

Royal Dutch Shell November 2, 2017 3

Definitions & cautionary note

Underlying operating cost is defined as operating cost less identified items. A reconciliation can be found in the quarterly results announcement.

  • Divestments. A reconciliation can be found in the quarterly results announcement.

The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate legal entities. In this presentation “Shell”, “Shell group” and “Royal Dutch Shell” are sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” are also used to refer to subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These expressions are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular company or companies. ‘‘Subsidiaries’’, “Shell subsidiaries” and “Shell companies” as used in this presentation refer to companies over which Royal Dutch Shell plc either directly or indirectly has control. Entities and unincorporated arrangements over which Shell has joint control are generally referred to as “joint ventures” and “joint operations” respectively. Entities over which Shell has significant influence but neither control nor joint control are referred to as “associates”. The term “Shell interest” is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect ownership interest held by Shell in a venture, partnership or company, after exclusion of all third- party interest. This presentation contains forward-looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management’s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Royal Dutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘risks’’, “schedule”, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘should’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘will’’ and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this presentation, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for Shell’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments including regulatory measures addressing climate change; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. No assurance is provided that future dividend payments will match or exceed previous dividend payments. All forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional risk factors that may affect future results are contained in Royal Dutch Shell’s 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2016 (available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov ). These risk factors also expressly qualify all forward looking statements contained in this presentation and should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this presentation, November 2, 2017. Neither Royal Dutch Shell plc nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation. This presentation may contain references to Shell’s website. These references are for the readers’ convenience only. Shell is not incorporating by reference any information posted

  • n www.shell.com. We may have used certain terms, such as resources, in this presentation that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) strictly prohibits us from including in
  • ur filings with the SEC. U.S. investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov.
slide-4
SLIDE 4

Royal Dutch Shell November 2, 2017 4

Summary

Q3 3 2017 2017 – cash momentum

 Underlying CCS earnings $4.1 billion  CFFO excl. working capital $10 billion  Free cash flow $3.7 billion  Q317 dividend $0.47 per share

Q3 3 2017 2017 – 4 q 4 quarters rollin ing

 CFFO excl. working capital $40 billion  Cash dividend covered  Balance sheet: 25.4% gearing

Lea eader: val er: value ue + infl + influen uence ce Red educ ucing g our ur carb carbon intens tensity ty Shared red val value ue with th socie ciety ty

World-class investment case

 FCF/share + ROCE growth  Conservative financial

management

slide-5
SLIDE 5

Royal Dutch Shell November 2, 2017 5

Q3 2017

Portfolio highlights

Prelude sail away – arrived in Australia Appomattox hull arrival USGC Mexico – Retail country entry Gbaran-Ubie – Phase 2

slide-6
SLIDE 6

Royal Dutch Shell November 2, 2017

Q3 2017

Prices & margins

$/barrel

Shell oil il & g gas realis isatio ions

$/barrel

Industry refin inin ing margin ins

$/tonne

Industry chemic icals margin ins

US ethane Western Europe naphtha NE/SE Asia naphtha US West Coast US Gulf Coast coking Rotterdam complex Singapore Oil Gas (RHS)

6

$/mscf

slide-7
SLIDE 7

Royal Dutch Shell November 2, 2017 7

Q3 2017

Financial highlights

Earnings and ROACE on CCS basis, excluding identified items

$ billion

Earnin ings Q3 2016 to Q Q3 2017

$ b $ bil illion ion

Q3 201 3 2016 Q3 201 3 2017 Upstream 0.0 0.6 Integrated Gas 0.9 1.3 Downstream (CCS) 2.1 2.7 Corporate & non-controlling interest (0.2) (0.4) CCS n net e earnings 2. 2.8 4. 4.1 CCS earnings, $ per share 0.35 0.50 Cash f flow f from operations 8.5 8.5 7.6 7.6 Free cash flow 3. 3.3 3. 3.7 Dividend 3. 3.8 4. 4.0 ROACE (%) 2. 2.8 4. 4.6

slide-8
SLIDE 8

Royal Dutch Shell November 2, 2017 8

Q3 2017

Cash momentum

Earnings on CCS basis, excluding identified items

Cash flow from operations excluding working capital Cash flow from operations excluding working capital – 4 quarters rolling (RHS)

 Strong cash flow

momentum contin inued d from 2016 in into 2017

 CFFO excludin

ing g workin ing capit ital (4 quarters rollin ing): $40 bil illio ion @ $51/bbl bbl

Average Brent oil price - 4 quarters rolling ($/bbl) Earnings $ billion $ billion

$107 $51

slide-9
SLIDE 9

Royal Dutch Shell November 2, 2017

3.00 3.50

9

Q3 2017

Oil and gas production + LNG liquefaction volumes

Million boe per day

Upstream + Integrated d Gas – oil il & gas

Million tonnes

LNG liq iquefactio ion volumes

3.25 3.75 4.00

slide-10
SLIDE 10

Royal Dutch Shell November 2, 2017 10

Q3 2017

Earnings

$ billion

Earnin ings Q3 2016 to Q Q3 2017

slide-11
SLIDE 11

Royal Dutch Shell November 2, 2017 11

Financial and competitive performance

Chemicals

Earnings and ROACE on CCS basis, excluding identified items; source: company reports, Shell analysis Chemicals peer group: XOM, LBI, DOW, RDS. Q3 2017 competitor data not yet available

$ billion

Earnin ings – Chemic icals

%

Competit itiv ive performance – ROACE 4Q rollin ing

 Improve base busin

iness

 Expand current base

portfolio io

 Addin

ing to portfolio io - growth

Average Brent oil price (RHS) Earnings Average: $104 Average: $49 $/barrel 13Q1 17Q2 14Q1 15Q1 16Q1

CHEMICALS

Shell Peer group

slide-12
SLIDE 12

Royal Dutch Shell November 2, 2017

Under constructio ion

12

Growth projects

Chemicals

Million metric tonnes

Ethylene capacit ity

Nanhai II Pennsylvania cracker USGC restructuring Nanhai I Bukom start-up

12

Geismar, USA Nanhai, China Pennsylvania, USA

 425,000 metric tonnes per

annum additional Alpha Olefins capacity

 New liquids cracker and

derivatives units

 Capacity: ~1.2 million metric

tonnes ethylene per annum

 50/50 JV CNOOC  Greenfield FID 2016  Capacity: ~1.5 million metric

tonnes ethylene per annum and polyethylene derivatives 2006 Nanhai 2010 USGC go-light strategy 2010 Singapore 2016+ China + USA

Liquid Gas

2022 2022 Feedstock mix ix

CHEMICALS

SADAF exit

slide-13
SLIDE 13

Royal Dutch Shell November 2, 2017 13

Q3 2017

Cash performance + Divestments

Divestments: table D of Q3 2017 Quarterly Results Announcement; Integrated gas split out from Upstream from 2011 onwards

$ billion

Sources and uses of cash – 17Q3 4Q r rollin ing

$ billion Interest paid Debt repayments &

  • ther financing

Div ivestments

Downstream/Corporate Upstream Integrated gas

Div ivestments 2016 2016 – 2017 to date:

 Completed:

: $2 $20 0 bil illio ion

 Announced: $2 bil

illio ion

 In progress:

: >$5 bil illio ion

slide-14
SLIDE 14

Royal Dutch Shell November 2, 2017 14

Q3 2017

Net debt + Dividend

$ billion

Div ivid idend + gearin ing

UPSTREAM IG IG

DOWNSTREAM /CORPORATE

S&P credit it ratin ing upgrade: : A+

$ billion

Net debt + gearin ing

Dividend Buy-backs Gearing (RHS) %

  • $10 billion

Net debt % Gearing (RHS)

slide-15
SLIDE 15

Royal Dutch Shell November 2, 2017 15

Cash flow priorities 2016-18

Priorities for cash

Debt reduction Dividends Buy-backs & capital investment

1 2 3

Divestments Reduce capital investment Reduce

  • perating costs

Deliver new projects

slide-16
SLIDE 16

Royal Dutch Shell November 2, 2017 16

Summary

Q3 3 2017 2017 – cash momentum

 Underlying CCS earnings $4.1 billion  CFFO excl. working capital $10 billion  Free cash flow $3.7 billion  Q317 dividend $0.47 per share

Q3 3 2017 2017 – 4 q 4 quarters rollin ing

 CFFO excl. working capital $40 billion  Cash dividend covered  Balance sheet: 25.4% gearing

Lea eader: val er: value ue + infl + influen uence ce Red educ ucing g our ur carb carbon intens tensity ty Shared red val value ue with th socie ciety ty

World-class investment case

 FCF/share + ROCE growth  Conservative financial

management

slide-17
SLIDE 17

Royal Dutch Shell November 2, 2017 17

Questions & Answers

Jessica Uhl Chief Financial Officer

Royal Dutch Shell November 2, 2017

slide-18
SLIDE 18

Royal Dutch Shell November 2, 2017

Royal Dutch Shell plc November 2, 2017

Third quarter 2017 results

Re-shaping Shell, to create a world-class investment case

#makethefuture

slide-19
SLIDE 19

Royal Dutch Shell November 2, 2017

Q4 2017 Outlook

Q4 4 – Q4 4 OUTLOOK: : Year-ago baseline reflects Shell’s earnings seasonality

 Integrated gas 

Gorgon and portfolio impacts: positive impact of ~90 kboe/d

 Upstream 

Divestment impact: reduction of ~250 kboe/d

Maintenance: negative impact of ~40 kboe/d

Lower production in the Netherlands (NAM) and improved security situation in Nigeria are expected to be largely offsetting

 Downstream 

Refinery availability to increase

Chemicals availability to increase

Divestment impacts: reduction of ~250 thousand b/d in oil products sales volumes

 Corporate segment 

Net charge of $350 – 450 million excluding identified items and the impact of currency exchange rate effects 20 2017 17 OUTLOOK:

 Shell earnings sensitivity: 

Brent: $10/bbl Brent +/- ~$5 billion earnings per annum, of which: Upstream +/- ~$3 billion; Integrated Gas +/- ~$2 billion (4-6 month LNG price lag versus Brent)

Henry Hub: $1/mmbtu +/- ~$250 million earnings per annum

19

slide-20
SLIDE 20

Royal Dutch Shell November 2, 2017 20

Q3 2017

Upstream results – cash flow momentum

Earnings on CCS basis, excluding identified items

$ billion

Earnin ings Q3 2016 to Q Q3 2017

$ billion

Cash flow momentum

Earnings Cash flow from operations excluding working capital Cash flow from operations excluding working capital – 4-quarters rolling (RHS) $ billion $51 $42 Average Brent oil price - 4 quarters rolling ($/bbl) 0.5

slide-21
SLIDE 21

Royal Dutch Shell November 2, 2017 21

Q3 2017

Integrated Gas results – cash flow momentum

Earnings on CCS basis, excluding identified items

$ billion

Earnin ings Q3 2016 to Q Q3 2017

$ billion

Cash flow momentum

Earnings Cash flow from operations excluding working capital Cash flow from operations excluding working capital – 4-quarters rolling (RHS) $ billion

slide-22
SLIDE 22

Royal Dutch Shell November 2, 2017 22

Q3 2017

Downstream results – cash flow momentum

Earnings on CCS basis, excluding identified items

$ billion

Earnin ings Q3 2016 to Q Q3 2017

$ billion

Cash flow momentum

$ billion Earnings Cash flow from operations excluding working capital Cash flow from operations excluding working capital – 4-quarters rolling (RHS)

slide-23
SLIDE 23

Royal Dutch Shell November 2, 2017