Then, Now, and Next Shashi Nambisan, PhD, PE Executive Director - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Then, Now, and Next Shashi Nambisan, PhD, PE Executive Director - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Aug 29, 2022 125 likes •349 views

Alabamas Transportation System Concerns: Then, Now, and Next Shashi Nambisan, PhD, PE Executive Director South Alabama Freight Forum Mobile, AL August 20, 2018 ATI and Associated Centers 2 2 Ala. Transp. System Conditions &

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Shashi Nambisan, PhD, PE

Executive Director

South Alabama Freight Forum

Mobile, AL

August 20, 2018

Alabama’s Transportation System Concerns: Then, Now, and Next …

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ATI and Associated Centers

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  • Time Horizon: 20 years (year 2040)
  • Scenarios
  • Baseline, Stay the Existing Course

▪ Existing Funding Policies ▪ Existing Investment Strategies

  • Let the Conditions Get no Worse
  • Compete with SEC states
  • What is the Cost of Doing Nothing?
  • Ala. Transp. System Conditions & Performance

http://blog.al.com/breaking/2013/06/poll_results_alabama_53_is_top.html http://informedinfrastructure.com/15457/alabama-dot-begins-evaluating-mobile-river-bridge-designs/

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Five Working Groups

  • Physical infrastructure and safety
  • Ports, harbors, and inland waterways
  • Revenues, standardization, and

allocation

  • Technology considerations
  • Public policy

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Where Have We Been?

  • Alabama’s

transportation infrastructure has not kept pace with our population or our economy.

  • As a result, it is

costing us time, lives, jobs, opportunity, and money.

20% 46% 57% 14% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Population Vehicles Registered VMT Lane Miles % Increase Changes in Alabama Between 1990 and 2015 5

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Annual Peak Hour Delay Per Commuter in Alabama

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Alabama Road Network

Interstates: 4,685 miles Non-Interstate: 208,442 miles TOTAL: 213,127 miles

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$366 billion

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Alabama’s Bridges

  • Number of bridges = 15,954
  • State =

5,753

  • County =

8,621

  • City =

1,517

  • Other =

63

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$21 billion

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ALDOT’s Bridge Age by Year 2020

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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Over 50 years 40-50 years 30-40 years 20-30 years 10-20 years 1-10 years

May I ask where you studied engineering?

Total: 5,753

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Alabama’s Annual Road Fatalities

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  • 20%
  • 10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

% Change # Fatalities Year # Fatalities % Change

60% of the fatalities occurred in rural areas

Economic impact of crashes on Alabama’s roads = $17.4 Billion in 2015

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500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Gallons MPG Fleet MPG Gasoline Used [gal]

Fuel Efficiency & Consumption

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500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Gallons MPG Fleet MPG Gasoline Used [gal]

12,000 miles / year

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National Highway Construction Cost Index and Consumer Price Index

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0.900 1.000 1.100 1.200 1.300 1.400 1.500 1.600 1.700 1.800 1.900

March June September December March June September December March June September December March June September December March June September December March June September December March June September December March June September December March June September December March June September December March June September December March June September December March June September December March June September December March June September 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

March 2003 Index = 1.000 NHCCI CPI

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Alabama’s Road & Bridge Assets

  • Assets: ~ $387 Billion
  • Replacement Cost
  • ~ $631 Billion (10 yrs); ~ $1.03 Trillion (20 yrs)
  • Single largest capital investment of the people
  • Protect, preserve, and increase value of assets
  • Current annual investments
  • Less than 0.5% of the current cost of the assets

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Mobility and Congesion Costs

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  • Mobility Analysis only: NOT maintenance, safety, operations,

technology, resilience, reliability, etc.

  • A menu of options for mobility investment and congestion
  • For each of Alabama’s 12 metro areas, we developed a set of

choices for how you pay for mobility.

  • Paying to solve the problem by investing in new capacity and better
  • perations, …or…..
  • Paying by sitting in traffic, burning extra fuel, missing meetings, larger

vehicle fleets to serve the same delivery or service area, more expensive manufacturing and shipping costs

  • Metropolitan Planning Organization: Travel Demand Models
  • Population and Jobs
  • Future year road networks
  • Best available local estimates of the future

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What Numbers Did We Get?

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  • Annual person-hours of travel delay: extra travel time (millions)
  • Annual delay hours per auto commuter: per peak period

commuter

  • Congestion cost for autos and trucks: extra time and wasted fuel
  • Cost of new capacity (standing in for all improvements): $MM of

spending on mobility improvements (no other costs) ...then we did some math

  • 30-year totals and present value of costs for each region

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Mobility Investment Goal Scenarios

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Goals Based On Delay Per Auto Commuter

  • Maintain 2016 Congestion Levels
  • Best Among Southeast States: best of all urban regions for similar

population sizes

  • Middle of Southeast States: average urban value for similar

population sizes

  • Business as Usual Trend: continue current spending trend
  • Invest Any Additional Funds in Maintenance: no more new

capacity funds beyond current committed investments >>Southeast States: AR, FL, KY, GA, LA, MS, SC, TN, TX

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Congestion and Costs

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  • Two regions of interest to SAFF

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Tough Choices…

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  • So we added two more
  • Optimum Conditions: lowest congestion cost
  • Minimum Cost Competitive: lower capacity cost,

acceptable? congestion

New Capacity Cost Congestion Cost Total Cost Maintain 2016 Congestion Level $12,122 $25,019 $37,141 Best Among Southeastern States $12,157 $24,268 $36,425 Middle of Southeastern States $6,908 $30,769 $37,677 Current Trend - Business as Usual $4,516 $36,049 $40,565 Invest in Maintenance Only $1,701 $40,663 $42,364 Optimum Conditions Alternative $11,804 $23,051 $34,855 Minimum Cost Competitive Alternative $8,802 $27,546 $36,348 TOTAL COST ($ Millions) Scenario

DRAFT

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% Varies in Each City Diversify Development Patterns Manage the Demand Improve System Efficiency Manage the Construction Process Build More Capacity Accept Some Level of Congestion

100% 0%

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DRAFT Conclusions

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  • Range of possible investment goals
  • Resulting congestion levels and costs
  • ..But no consistent ‘best’ scenario for all regions
  • The cost of “doing nothing” is not zero
  • A range of methods to pay for congestion
  • Pay to address the problem
  • Suffer the problem by paying in extra time, fuel, shipping

costs, missed meetings, family events, etc.

  • Need more discussion about the choices

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Shashi Nambisan, Executive Director

E-mail: shashi@ua.edu

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Alabama Transportation Institute: A Resource for Alabama...