Then... ENI AC 1 9 4 6 ( 5 kHz) The Future is not 1 8 0 0 0 - - PDF document

then eni ac 1 9 4 6 5 khz the future is not
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Then... ENI AC 1 9 4 6 ( 5 kHz) The Future is not 1 8 0 0 0 - - PDF document

Then... ENI AC 1 9 4 6 ( 5 kHz) The Future is not 1 8 0 0 0 radiorr sladdprogram m erad w hat it used to be... 5 KHz Erik Hagersten Professor i Datorarkitektur Uppsala Universitet AVDARK ENIAC 2 0 1 1 Dept of I nform


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SLIDE 1

The Future is not w hat it used to be...

Erik Hagersten Professor i Datorarkitektur Uppsala Universitet

Dept of I nform ation Technology| w w w .it.uu.se Erik Hagersten| user.it.uu.se/ ~ eh

AVDARK 2 0 1 1

Then... ENI AC 1 9 4 6 ( ”5 kHz”)

ENIAC

1 8 0 0 0 radiorör sladdprogram m erad ”5 KHz”

Dept of I nform ation Technology| w w w .it.uu.se Erik Hagersten| user.it.uu.se/ ~ eh

AVDARK 2 0 1 1

Then ( in Sw eden)

 BARK (~ 1950)

 8 000 relays,  80 km cables

 BESK (~ 1953)

 2 400 vac. tubes  ”20 kHz” (world record)

Dept of I nform ation Technology| w w w .it.uu.se Erik Hagersten| user.it.uu.se/ ~ eh

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“Recently” APZ 2 1 2 , 1 9 8 3

Ericsson’s Supercom puter ( “5 MHz”)

Dept of I nform ation Technology| w w w .it.uu.se Erik Hagersten| user.it.uu.se/ ~ eh

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APZ 2 1 2

m arketing brochure quotes:

 ”Very compact”

 6 times the performance  1/ 6: th the size  1/ 5 the power consumption

 ”A breakthrough in computer science”  ”Why more CPU power?”  ”All the power needed for future development”  ”…

800,000 BHCA, should that ever be needed”

 ”SPC computer science at its most elegance”  ”Using 64 kbit memory chips”  ”1500W power consumption

Dept of I nform ation Technology| w w w .it.uu.se Erik Hagersten| user.it.uu.se/ ~ eh

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6 5 years of “im provem ents”

 Speed  Size  Price  Price/ performance  Reliability  Predictability  Energy  Safety  Usability…

.

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SLIDE 2

Dept of I nform ation Technology| w w w .it.uu.se Erik Hagersten| user.it.uu.se/ ~ eh

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”Moore’s Law ”

Pop: Double perform ance every 1 8 -2 4 th m onth

1 10 100 1000

2006

Perform ance [ log] Year

Single-core Multicore

Dept of I nform ation Technology| w w w .it.uu.se Erik Hagersten| user.it.uu.se/ ~ eh

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Exponentiell utveckling

Exam ple: Doubling every 2 nd year How long does it it take for 1 0 0 0 x im provem ent? Exam ple: Doubling every 1 8 th m onth How long does it it take for 1 0 0 0 x im provem ent?

Log scale

1 10 100 1000 time

Linear scale

?

Dept of I nform ation Technology| w w w .it.uu.se Erik Hagersten| user.it.uu.se/ ~ eh

AVDARK 2 0 1 1

Linear scale 1 9 4 0  2 0 1 7 ( 2 x perform ance every 1 8 th m onth)

0,E+00 5,E+14 1,E+15 2,E+15 2,E+15 3,E+15 3,E+15 4,E+15 40 50 60 70 80 90 10 Performance Year

Doubling every 18th month since 1940

Dept of I nform ation Technology| w w w .it.uu.se Erik Hagersten| user.it.uu.se/ ~ eh

AVDARK 2 0 1 1

Ray Kurzw eil pictures w w w .Kurzw eilAI .net/ pps/ W orldHealthCongress/

Dept of I nform ation Technology| w w w .it.uu.se Erik Hagersten| user.it.uu.se/ ~ eh

AVDARK 2 0 1 1

Ray Kurzw eil pictures w w w .Kurzw eilAI .net/ pps/ W orldHealthCongress/

Dept of I nform ation Technology| w w w .it.uu.se Erik Hagersten| user.it.uu.se/ ~ eh

AVDARK 2 0 1 1

Ray Kurzw eil pictures w w w .Kurzw eilAI .net/ pps/ W orldHealthCongress/

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SLIDE 3

Dept of I nform ation Technology| w w w .it.uu.se Erik Hagersten| user.it.uu.se/ ~ eh

AVDARK 2 0 1 1

Exponentiell utveckling: Doublerings/ halverings-tider

( according to Kurzw eil)

Dynam ic RAM Mem ory ( bits per dollar) 1 .5 years

Average Transistor Price 1 .6 years

Microprocessor Cost per Transistor Cycle 1 .1 years

Total Bits Shipped 1 .1 years

Processor Perform ance in MI PS 1 .8 years

Transistors in I ntel Microprocessors 2 .0 years

Log scale

1 10 100 1000 time

Dept of I nform ation Technology| w w w .it.uu.se Erik Hagersten| user.it.uu.se/ ~ eh

AVDARK 2 0 1 1

Ray Kurzw eil pictures w w w .Kurzw eilAI .net/ pps/ W orldHealthCongress/

Dept of I nform ation Technology| w w w .it.uu.se Erik Hagersten| user.it.uu.se/ ~ eh

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HiPEAC Roadm ap -- High Perform ance

Em bedded Architecture and Com pilers