The Work of the Future: Challenges and Opportunities for Workers with Disabilities in the ‘Robot -ificial ’ Intelligence Era David Autor, Ford Professor MIT Department of Economics and NBER Disability Research Center Annual Meeting Aug 1, 2018. Washington DC
Outline 1) Context: What has happened to the employment of adults with work limitations – and why? The role of aging • The role of education • The role of occupational change • The SSDI program • 2) Challenges ahead The ”hollowing” labor market • Opportunities for high-skill work • Opportunities for service-oriented work • 3) Assisting the workers of the future Assistive technologies • The medical-vocational grid •
The Surprising Stability of Self-Reported Work Limitations Among U.S. Adults 40 - 64, 1988 – 2017 Percent with Work Limitation P opulation Aged 40−64 Despite pop’n aging 20 2008 - 2017 1988 - 2008 • Almost no rise in self-reported 15 work limitations ● ● between 1988 – ● ● Percent (%) ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 2008 ● ● ● ● ● ● 10 ● • Work limitation trends upward only 5 in last decade , 2008 – 2017 0 Source: Current Population Survey, IPUMS 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Year
Frequency of Self-Reported Work Limitations Also Remarkably Stable by Age Group, 1988 – 2017 Age 60 – 61 Age 55 – 59 Age 50 – 54 Age 45 – 49 Age 40 – 44 Source: Current Population Survey, IPUMS
Similarly Stable by Gender, with Some Rise after 2008 Women Ages 50 - 59 Men ages 50 – 59 Women ages 40 – 49 Men ages 40 – 49 Source: Current Population Survey, IPUMS
But Employment of Work-Limited Adults Fell from 1992 – 2012, then Rebounded after 2012 Percent Employed Aged 40−61 90 No work limitation ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 80 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Source: Current Population Survey, IPUMS 70 60 Percent (%) 50 40 30 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 20 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 10 Work limitation 0 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Year No WL With WL ● ●
Outline 1) Context: What has happened to the employment of adults with work limitations – and why? The role of population aging • The role of education • The role of occupational change • The SSDI program • 2) Challenges ahead The ”hollowing” labor market • Opportunities for high-skill work • Opportunities for service-oriented work • 3) Assisting the workers of the future Assistive technologies • The medical-vocational grid •
Even Among Those Ages 40 – 61, Adults with Work Limitations are Older than Average What share are 55+? • 46% among Soc. Security beneficiaries • 38% among Work Limited, not Employed • 36% among Work Limited, Employed • 27% among Non-Work Limited Source: Current Population Survey, IPUMS
Seems Natural that Population Aging Should be Key Cause of Falling Employment among Work-Limited Adults But Aging is Not the Explanation • Employment fell among every age bracket of work-limited adults • Largest fall among those ages 40-44 (23 pts!) • And largest rebound among this group after 2012 Source: Current Population Survey, IPUMS
But Employment Fell Uniformly Across Cohorts at Every Age Level Percent Employed by Birth Cohort Aged 40−61 With W ork Limitation 50 Cohorts in this figure Age 40-43 in 1988 ● 40 ● ● ● ● Age 40-43 in 1992 ● ● ● ● Percent (%) 30 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Age 40-43 in 1996 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 20 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Age 40-43 in 2000 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Age 40-43 in 2004 ● ● 10 0 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Source: Current Population Survey, IPUMS Year 1948−51 1952−55 1956−59 ● ● ● 1960−63 1964−67 ● ●
Compare to Employment Rates of Adults without Work- Limitations: No Decline in Employment Across Cohorts Percent Employed by Birth Cohort Aged 40−61 With No W ork Limitation 100 Cohorts in this figure 90 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Age 40-43 in 1988 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 80 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 70 ● ● Age 40-43 in 1992 ● ● Percent (%) 60 Age 40-43 in 1996 50 40 Age 40-43 in 2000 30 Age 40-43 in 2004 20 10 0 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Year Source: Current Population Survey, IPUMS 1948−51 1952−55 1956−59 ● ● ● 1960−63 1964−67 ● ●
Outline 1) Context: What has happened to the employment of adults with work limitations – and why? The role of population aging • The role of education • The role of occupational change • The SSDI program • 2) Challenges ahead The ”hollowing” labor market • Opportunities for high-skill work • Opportunities for service-oriented work • 3) Assisting the workers of the future Assistive technologies • The medical-vocational grid •
The Earnings Premium for Higher Education Has Risen Steeply since 1980 MEN WOMEN CPS Annual Demographic File (Autor, 2014)
Adults Ages 40 - 61 with Work Limitations Have Relatively Low Educational Attainment Education by Work Limitation Aged 40−61, 2010−2017 Fraction with some college or 100 greater 9 12 25 • Soc. Sec. beneficiaries: 35% 37 26 75 29 Percent of Group (%) • Work-Limited, not employed: 4 College+ 32 41% 3 Some College 50 27 2 HS 40 • Work-Limited, employed: 1 No HS 38 57% 31 25 27 • Not Work-Limited: 65% 23 19 9 7 0 1 2 3 4 S W W N S o L L B , , W N E e L m n o , e t p E f E l m o m y p p e l l d o o y y e Source: Current Population Survey, IPUMS e d d 13
Employment Among Adults Without Work Limitations is Higher Among More Educated Adults Percent Employed by Education Aged 40−61 With No W ork Limitation 100 90 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● • College or Greater ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 80 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● • Some College ● ● ● ● 70 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Percent (%) 60 • High School 50 • Less than High School 40 30 20 10 0 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Source: Current Population Survey, IPUMS Year 1 No HS 2 HS 3 Some College 4 College+ ● ● ● ●
Also True Among Young (25-39) Not Work-Limited Adults Percent Employed by Education Aged 25−39 With No W ork Limitation 100 90 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● • College or Greater ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 80 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● • Some College ● ● ● 70 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 60 ● ● Percent (%) ● • High School 50 • Less than High School 40 30 20 10 0 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Source: Current Population Survey, IPUMS Year 1 No HS 2 HS 3 Some College 4 College+ ● ● ● ●
Recommend
More recommend
