The Future of Work Caribbean Future of Work Forum, Kingston, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Future of Work

Caribbean Future of Work Forum,

Kingston, Jamaica Wednesday 22 February, 2017

José M. Salazar-Xirinachs

Regional Director for Latin America and the Caribbean

THE FUTURE OF WORK is influenced by four main groups of drivers

• - New business models
• On-line platforms: e-Bay
• Gig economy - crowdwork
• Work-on-Demand
• Global supply chains
• Outsourcing
• Consumer awareness about:

privacy, health, diet, environment, ethics.

• Economic cycle -

“deceleration”

• Large productivity gap
• How to achieve greater

productive diversification / economic complexity

• - Internet
• Cloud technology
• Big data
• Internet of things
• Automation
• Robotics
• Additive manufacturing, 3D
• Genetics and bioprocesses
• - Longevity
• Youth explosion
• Greater human

diversity, migration

• Gender parity

I Demographic and population- related

II Technological II Technological

IV

Related to models/enterprise strategies and forms of contracting

IV

Related to models/enterprise strategies and forms of contracting

III Related to productive development (or under- development) III Related to productive development (or under- development)

FUTURE OF WORK Drivers of change in the world of work

New business models

• - On-line platforms: e-Bay
• - Gig economy - crowdwork
• - Work-on-Demand
• - Global supply chains
• - Outsourcing
• Consumer awareness about:
• privacy, health, diet, environment,

ethics

• Economic cycle -

“deceleration”

• Large productivity gap
• How to achieve greater

productive diversification / economic complexity

• - Longevity
• - Youth explosion
• - Greater human

diversity, migration

• - Gender parity

I Demographic and population- related

II Technological II Technological

IV Enterprise models and forms of contracting IV Enterprise models and forms of contracting

III Related to productive development (or under- development) III Related to productive development (or under- development)

• - Internet
• - Cloud technology
• - Big data
• - Internet of things
• - Automation of knowledge

work

• - Robotics
• - Additive manufacturing, 3D
• - Genetics and

bioprocesses

Impacts: opportunities and risks of the Technological Revolutions

1) Disruption: impact on employment:

Dynamic of job destruction and creation – “technological unemployment” because of digital economy, automation

• Pessimistic outlook:

– Machines will massively replace humans in many occupations – McAfee & Brynjolfson, 2014; M. Ford, 2015; Frey & Osborne: 47% of occupations at risk

• Optimistic outlook:

– There will be replacement, but also complementarity and an increase in human skills – For every ’ordinary’ job lost, three more will be created with the ‘innovation explosion’ - Gil Giardelli, expert on innovation.

Impacts: opportunities and risks of the Technological Revolutions

2) Transformation of

• ccupations:

– Demand for new, advanced skills increases (STEM jobs), and – Existing skills become obsolete more quickly

3) Risk of greater inequality:

– Highly skilled, “connected” workers win – Those with low skills, who are “disconnected,” lose (Hollowing

• ut - Author).

The rapid change in the skills profile for the 4th IR challenges formal education and occupational training systems and puts the focus on a Human Talent Development Agenda.

Impacts depend on degree of prepared- ness (capabilities) at various levels

Connectivity and Computing Power Connectivity and Computing Power Internet of Things (IT) Data analysis and Intelligence Data analysis and Intelligence Advanced analytics and Artificial Intelligence (AI) Human- machine Interface (HMI) Human- machine Interface (HMI) Augmented reality/ virtual reality/ wearables Advanced robotics 3D printing

• Innovation in Products or Services

(Supply of the future)

Digital and Physical Transfor- mation Digital and Physical Transfor- mation

• Individual

(Operator of the future)

• Factory

(Factory of the future)

• Enterprise

(Producer of the future)

• Industry

(Value chain economics)

• Government

(Policies for productive development & jobs)

• Global

(Global supply chains)

Degree of Prepared- ness Rate of Adoption

Capability Assessment

Impact and rate of adoption depend on the degree of preparedness (capabilities) at various levels: Convergence of New Technologies = Industry 4.0

21st Century skills at individual level

Basic knowledge:

• Scientific:

mathematics, science.

• Reading
• ICTs
• Financial
• Cultural/Civic

Competencies:

• Critical thinking
• Creativity
• Communica-

tion

• Collaboration

Character traits / socio- emotional skills

• Persistence
• Adaptability
• Curiosity
• Initiative
• Leadership
• Social and cultural

awareness

The “operator of the future” must have:

• Ability to deal with intelligent machines
• Ability to adapt, observe, judge and take decisions
• Ability to learn to learn and adapt
• Innovation is done by people!!
• The best jobs demand these skills

Qualifications and skills are the key to the Future!

FUTURE OF WORK Drivers of change in the world of work

• New business models
• - On-line platforms: e-Bay
• - Gig economy - crowdwork
• - Work-on-Demand,
• - Global supply chains
• - Outsourcing
• - Consumer awareness about:
• Privacy, health, diet,
• environment, ethics
• Economic cycle -

“deceleration”

• Large productivity gap
• How to achieve greater

productive diversification / economic complexity

• - Internet
• Cloud technology
• Big data
• Internet of things
• Automation
• Robotics
• Additive manufacturing, 3D
• Genetics and bioprocesses
• - Longevity
• Youth explosion
• Greater human

diversity, migration

• Gender parity

I Demographic and population- related II Technological II Technological IV Enterprise models and forms of contracting IV Enterprise models and forms of contracting

III Related to productive development (or under- development) III Related to productive development (or under- development)

How has Productivity performed in Latin America and the Caribbean? From bad to disastrous

• The region’s economies have been growing because of raw

materials prices and factor accumulation, not because of productivity

• Average productivity is 50% of US level. In some countries, it is 30%.

Instead of closing, the gap is widening.

– “The tragedy of Latin America” - IDB 2010 – “The Achilles’ heel of the region’s economies” - ECLAC– 2016

• Structural transformation has not shifted enough workers from low-

productivity sectors to high-productivity sectors (Rodrik & McMillan, 2012).

• Exports are concentrated in just a few products.
• Large gaps in innovation, education and work force skills.

Productivity and productive development are a pending task and a an urgent agenda!

What can be done to speed up productivity growth?

• Countries should start new engines for growth.

Avenues include:

– Quality education and relevant training – Greater formalization of employment and enterprises – More employment in medium and large enterprises and less self-employment and employment in microenterprises – Diversification of production: new sectors – Policies to improve preparedness for adoption and dissemination of new technologies and the 4th IR – Policies to promote innovation

• Major institutional instrument for various of these goals:

Cluster development policies with a sectorial and territorial approach.

Cluster and productive development policies

• The functions of cluster initiatives are:

– To accelerate learning, innovation, adoption of technologies and productivity, through “interactive learning” and “discovery” processes, benefiting from “economies of agglomeration”. – To resolve “coordination failures” and facilitate public- private collaboration. – To organize collective action: Promote the design and implementation of joint projects among enterprises that belong to the cluster and between those enterprises and other members of the cluster network, and make the provision of public inputs specific to the cluster more efficient. – To invest in human talent specific to the cluster, resolve skills-mismatch problems and improve local labour markets.

Questions and Answers

• Where will the jobs in the Caribbean come from?

– From new engines of growth based on concrete economic activities:

• Tourism
• Financial services
• Creative industries
• Agriculture and agribusiness
• Green growth: Renewable energy,
• Blue
• Strong entrepreneurial ecosystems

– From formalization and a higher proportion of medium sized enterprises – From Strong Entrepreneurial Ecosystems

Questions and Answers

• What are the policies and institutions needed to

ensure that innovation and technological change create new and better forms of work?

– Policies: Productive Development Policies:

• Productive diversification,
• Productivity growth,
• Export growth,
• Investment attraction,
• Innovation,
• Education and skills.

– Institutions: Social dialogue institutions for productive transformation and employment

• Productivity and Competitiveness Councils
• Skills councils
• Dual Education & on the job training institutions

Questions and Answers

• How do we match the skills and training with

the needs?

– Comprehensive approach to 21st Century Skills – Technological prospection – On the job training and dual education – Sectoral skills councils and social dialogue – Better alignment of skills development policies with PDPs – Skills recognition and certification – National Qualification Systems

CLUSTERS IN BASQUE COUNTRY YEAR

ACEDE – Basque Home Appliances Cluster

1992

AFM – Machine Tools Cluster

1992

ACICAE – Basque Automotive Cluster

1993

GAIA – Electronics & ICT Cluster

1994

UNIPORT – Port of Bilbao Cluster

1994

ACLIMA – Basque Environmental Cluster

1995

Energy Cluster

1996

HEGAN – Basque Aerospace Cluster

1997

Basque Maritime - Shipbuilding Cluster

1997

Paper Cluster

1998

EIKEN – Basque Audiovisual Cluster

2004

• Cluster policies can be a powerful

tool for promoting productivity, linkages, formalization, innovation, internationalization and quality employment:

– In 2010, there were more than 130 cluster development programmes in 31 European countries (European Cluster Observatory) – In 2010, the US SBA launched more than 40 clusters throughout the country – In the Autonomous Community of the Basque Country, the cluster development policy has been a key ingredient of PDPs, with great success

Cluster and productive development policies

Industrial and Cluster Policies in the Basque Country: Research, Technology and Innovation

• 128 Entities in the Basque Science & Technology System
• 4 Universities with more than 67,000 students
• Generation of knowledge:

– 9 BERCs: Basque Excellence Research Centres – 7 CICs: Cooperation Research Centres (Research in biomedicine, biomaterials, nanosciences, advanced manufacturing, micro-technologies, energy, tourism)

• Technological Development:

– 2 leader platforms in Europe with 2,900 research professionals

• 6 Sectoral centres
• 6 Health R&D units
• 6 Public research entities
• 4 Science and technology parks with more than 15,000 people

working in more than 400 enterprises

• All of that in a country with 2.5 million inhabitants!

Source: R Monge and JM Salazar-Xirinachs, Políticas de Clusteres y de Desarrollo Productivo en la Comunidad Autónoma del País Vasco, ILO Americas, Technical Reports, #3, 2016.

CONCLUSION – Growth and productive development

• A better future of work depends on the

implementation of policies that foster productive development and human talent, to promote inclusive growth with more and better jobs.