The Upcoming U.S. Elections: the Mood of the American People Bruce - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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The Upcoming U.S. Elections: the Mood of the American People Bruce - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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The Upcoming U.S. Elections: the Mood of the American People Bruce Stokes Director, Global Economic Attitudes October, 2018 Pew Research Center Established 1996 Funded by The Pew Charitable Trusts, foundations Non-profit,

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The Upcoming U.S. Elections: the Mood of the American People

Bruce Stokes

Director, Global Economic Attitudes October, 2018

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Pew Research Center

  • Established 1996
  • Funded by The Pew Charitable Trusts, foundations
  • Non-profit, non-partisan fact tank in Washington
  • Since 2002, we have surveyed in 108 countries
  • www.pewresearch.org
  • @pewresearch
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THE MOOD OF THE ELECTORATE

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October 18, 2018

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A sense of victimhood: Even many ‘winners’ feel like they’re losing in politics

Thinking about the way things have been going in politics over the last few years

  • n issues that matter to you, would you say your side has been … (%)

Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Jan. 29-Feb. 13, 2018.

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October 18, 2018

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Most continue to say government is run by a few big interests

% who say the government is run …

Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted March 7-14, 2018.

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October 18, 2018

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A sense of alienation from Congress: Most say it is unlikely their representative would help them address a problem if contacted

Suppose you contacted your member of the U.S. House of Representatives with a

  • problem. How likely do you think it is that they would help you address it? (%)

Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Jan. 29–Feb. 13, 2018. Congressional district information comes from Gary Jacobson’s database

  • f congressional election results.
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Partisans Remain Divided Over the 2017 Tax Law

% who __ of the tax law passed by Donald Trump and Congress last year

Note: Don’t know responses not shown. Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18-24, 2018.

46 12 73 41 50 46 36 72 12 49 36 26 Total Rep/Lean Rep Dem/Lean Dem $75,000 or more $30,000-$74,999 Less than $30,000 Disapprove Approve Family income

October 18, 2018

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There is a Stark Partisan Divide in Americans’ Views of Cooperation with U.S. Allies

% who say the U.S. should take into account the interests of its allies, even if it means making compromises

Note: Don’t know responses not shown. Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18-24, 2018.

43 36 65 74 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Rep/Lean Rep Dem/Lean Dem

October 18, 2018

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Fewer Americans Believe That Say Other Countries ‘Take Unfair Advantage’ of U.S. Than in the 1990s

% who say that other countries …

Note: Don’t know responses not shown. Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18-24, 2018.

42 24 19 51 70 78 Sept 2018 Sept 1999 July 1994 Generally treat U.S. as fairly as we treat them Often take unfair advantage of the U.S.

October 18, 2018

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But a Partisan Divide Has Emerged on Other Nations Taking Unfair Advantage’ of the U.S.

% who say that other countries oten take unfair advantage of the United States

Note: Don’t know responses not shown. Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18-24, 2018.

28 68 76 80 73 80 Sept 2018 Sept 1999 July 1994 Dem/Lean Dem Rep/Lean Rep

October 18, 2018

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October 18, 2018

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Democrats Believe the U.S. is Much Less Respected Abroad, Such Republican Concern is Down

% who say that, compared with the past, the U.S. is ____ by other countries these days

Source: Survey conducted Oct. 25-30, 2017.

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There is a Profound Disrespect for the Other Party: Large Majorities

  • f Democrats and Republicans View Each Other Unfavorably

Democratic attitudes about the Republican Party Republican attitudes about the Democratic Party

October 18, 2018

12 Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted March 7-14, 2018.

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THE UPCOMING CONGRESSIONAL MIDTERMS

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October 18, 2018

14 Data and graphics source: FiveThirtyEight

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October 18, 2018

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Voter enthusiasm has risen – especially among Democrats

% of registered voters who say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting …

Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18-24, 2018.

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October 18, 2018

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Voters are focused

  • n Supreme Court

% of registered voters saying each is “very important” to their vote in 2018 …

Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18-24, 2018.

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October 18, 2018

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Where party priorities align

% of registered voters saying each is “very important” to their vote in 2018 …

Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18-24, 2018.

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October 18, 2018

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Where party priorities differ

% of registered voters saying each is “very important” to their vote in 2018 …

Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18-24, 2018.

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October 18, 2018

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Looking Ahead, Democrats Are Much Less Likely Than in the Past to Want Their Elected Officials to Compromise

% who say they like elected officials who make compromises with people they disagree with

Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted March 7-14, 2018.

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IS THIS ELECTION A REFERENDUM ON DONALD TRUMP?

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In Pew Surveys There Has Been Consistent Disapproval of President Trump’s Job Performance

% who __ of the way Trump is handling his job as president

Note: Don’t know responses not shown. Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18–24, 2018.

39 32 38 56 63 55 Disapprove Approve Feb 2017 Dec 2017 Sept 2018

October 18, 2018

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Today, There Are Wide Demographic Differences in Trump Job Approval

% who __ of the way Trump is handling his job as president

Note: Don’t know responses not shown. Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18-24, 2018.

55% 47 63 47 84 71 60 56 54 51 38% 46 30 47 6 21 27 38 41 45 Total Men Women White Black Hispanic Ages 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Approve Disapprove

October 18, 2018

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Such Disapproval is Highly Partisan

% who __ of the way Trump is handling his job as president

67% 62 50 53 14 8 26 90 85 95 27 40 55 71 28% 34 39 40 79 87 63 7 11 4 67 52 41 22 Postgrad College grad Some college HS or less Rep/Lean Rep Conserv Mod/Lib Dem/Lean Dem Cons/Mod Liberal White evang Prot White mainline Prot Catholic Unaffiliated Approve Disapprove

Note: Don’t know responses not shown. Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18-24, 2018.

October 18, 2018

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In the latest Pew survey, Trump gets low marks for temperament, trust; but most say he stands up for his beliefs

October 18, 2018

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% who say each describes Trump ...

Note: Don’t know responses not shown. Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18-24, 2018.

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Republicans Give Trump Very Positive Ratings on Traits – Except Temperament

% who say each describes Trump …

Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18-24, 2018.

October 18, 2018

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Impressions of Trump as “Competent” Lags Behind Other Presidents in Midterm Years

% who say each describes president …

Able to get things done Strong Leader

Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18-24, 2018.

50 44 55 43 40 Trump Sept '18 Obama July '14 Obama June '10 Bush Aug '06 Clinton July '94 43 47 53 43 Trump Sept '18 Obama July '14 Obama June '10 Bush Aug '06 Clinton July '94

nothing

October 18, 2018

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And Impressions of Trump as “Trustworthy” Lag Well Behind Other Presidents in Midterm Years

% who say each describes president …

Trustworthy Cares about people like me

Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18-24, 2018.

34 51 58 41 46 Trump Sept '18 Obama July '14 Obama June '10 Bush Aug '06 Clinton July '94 36 54 60 41 Trump Sept '18 Obama July '14 Obama June '10 Bush Aug '06 Clinton July '94

nothing

October 18, 2018

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Impressions of Trump as “Well Informed” Also Lag Well Behind Other Presidents in Midterm Years

% who say each describes president … Well informed

Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18-24, 2018.

38 67 46 58 Trump Sept '18 Obama July '14 Obama June '10 Bush Aug '06 Clinton July '94 N/A

October 18, 2018

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October 18, 2018

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And The American Public is Divided Over Whether Trump Has Respect for America’s Democratic Institutions, Traditions

% who say Donald Trump has ___ respect for this country’s democratic institutions and traditions

Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted March 7-14, 2018.

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October 18, 2018

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So, are the Congressional midterms a referendum on Trump?

Do you think of your vote for Congress as a vote FOR the president, AGAINST the president or isn’t the president much of a factor in your vote? (%)

Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 18-24, 2018.

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October 18, 2018

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All Pew Research Center reports are available online at www.pewresearch.org

Bruce Stokes

Director, Global Economic Attitudes

@bruceestokes