the U.S. Marine Corps Reserve Forces in New Orleans Eva Regnier - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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the U.S. Marine Corps Reserve Forces in New Orleans Eva Regnier - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Dec 06, 2023 323 likes •547 views

A Hurricane Decision Simulator for the U.S. Marine Corps Reserve Forces in New Orleans Eva Regnier Cameron MacKenzie Defense Resources Management Institute Naval Postgraduate School Acknowledgements: Funding and other Support from Marine

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A Hurricane Decision Simulator for the U.S. Marine Corps Reserve Forces in New Orleans

Acknowledgements: Funding and other Support from Marine Forces Reserve Bob McGuinness, Jose Garcia Andy Hernandez, Naval Postgraduate School Buck Sampson, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey

Eva Regnier Cameron MacKenzie Defense Resources Management Institute Naval Postgraduate School

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Isaac 72 hours before landfall

Powell & Aberson (2001)

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Isaac 60 hours before landfall

Powell & Aberson (2001)

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Gustav August 2008 Humberto September 2007

Every storm is different

Ivan August 2004 Katrina August 2005

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Stewart, Roebber & Bosart (1997)

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Challenges in hurricane preparation

Task environment

  • Too much information

Many, diverse environmental variables

  • Uncertainty
  • Dynamic information

sources (frequent updates)

  • Many decision variables

Formation of expertise

  • Highly variable context
  • Dynamic information

sources

  • Few learning opportunities
  • Ambiguous feedback

The above characteristics have been shown to reduce the performance of human judgment and the formation of expertise.

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Hurricane Decision Simulator

A hurricane preparation simulator for MARFORRES emergency managers, with:

  • Opportunity to “experience” many storms
  • n the order of a one to few hours per storm
  • Decision model specific to MARFORRES context
  • Realistic forecasts: Tracks and wind probabilities

updated at 6-hour intervals

  • Feedback on outcomes: A function of decisions

and storm

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Preparedness Decisions

  • 1. Send advance emergency relocation staff (ERS) to

alternate headquarters (96 hours before)

  • 2. Send liaison officers to local municipal emergency
  • perations centers (96 hours)
  • 3. Send rest of ERS to alternate headquarters (72 hours)
  • 4. Activate remain behind element to stay if evacuation
  • rdered (72 hours)
  • 5. Evacuate or shelter in place (60 hours)
  • 6. Transfer command and control to alternate

headquarters (48 hours)

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Storm Model Slides

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Desired Properties

  • f Synthetic Storms
  • Realism – storms should feel believable

BUT features should span realistic ranges; unusual events should occur in synthetic storms not a statistical prediction problem choosing an objective (distance) function is a challenge

  • Consistency among forecasts

e.g. forecast track matches probability plumes

  • Realistic forecasts

Forecast errors consistent with recent NHC forecasts

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Questions?

  • Eva Regnier, eregnier@nps.edu
  • Cameron MacKenzie, camacken@nps.edu
  • Paper in the Proceedings