The State of the Erie Economy Presentation to Presque Isle CPCU - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The State of the Erie Economy

Presentation to Presque Isle CPCU Society Chapter

September 14, 2017

Kenneth Louie The Economic Research Institute of Erie Sam and Irene Black School of Business Penn State Behrend

ERIE Resources on the Erie Economy

www.ERIEdata.org

Three Key Metrics

• The Erie Economy in 2017
• Output
• Income
• Employment

Total Output (GDP): Erie, PA, and U.S.

Real (Inflation-Adjusted) GDP

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

100 124 126

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Indexed GDP ( 2009 $)

U.S. PA Erie 2015 Real GDP US: $16.1 trillion PA: $644.9 billion Erie: $9.7 billion

Latest: 2015

Erie GDP by Industry (Percent of Total), 2015

0.3% 0.3% 1.4% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 3.0% 3.1% 4.3% 4.5% 5.6% 7.0% ($756 million) 12.8% ($1.4 billion) 12.8% ($1.4 billion) 13.6% ($1.5 billion) 25.9% ($2.8 billion)

0% 10% 20% 30%

Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting Mining Utilities Information Educational services Transportation and warehousing Other services, except government Construction Arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation, and… Wholesale trade Professional and business services Retail trade Finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing Health care and social assistance Government Manufacturing

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Erie GDP in 2015: $10.9 billion 2014 ($ millions): FIRRL: $1,424 Finance & Insurance: 887 Insurance Carriers: 710

GDP by Industry (%), 2015: Erie versus PA and U.S.

Erie PA U.S. Location Quotient Erie/PA Erie/U.S.

Manufacturing 25.87% 12.12% 12.11% 2.14 2.14 Government 13.55% 10.08% 12.42% 1.34 1.09 Finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing 12.75% 18.67% 20.40% 0.68 0.63 Health care and social assistance 12.75% 9.42% 7.25% 1.35 1.76 Retail trade 6.96% 5.11% 5.90% 1.36 1.18 Professional and business services 5.55% 13.02% 12.31% 0.43 0.45 Wholesale trade 4.46% 5.87% 6.10% 0.76 0.73 Arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation, and food services 4.25% 3.29% 3.96% 1.29 1.07 Construction 3.12% 4.19% 4.08% 0.74 0.76 Other services, except government 3.00% 2.22% 2.24% 1.35 1.34 Transportation and warehousing 1.96% 3.14% 3.03% 0.63 0.65 Educational services 1.93% 2.11% 1.13% 0.92 1.71 Information 1.86% 6.36% 4.69% 0.29 0.40 Utilities 1.35% 1.63% 1.59% 0.83 0.85 Mining 0.35% 2.25% 1.83% 0.16 0.19 Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting 0.28% 0.54% 0.98% 0.51 0.28

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Real GDP Per Capita

$34,421 $34,914 (+1.4%) $44,689 $50,155 (+12.2%) $42,458 $50,418 (+18.7%)

$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Chained 2009 Dollars

U.S.

Latest: 2015

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

PA Erie

Real Income Per Capita

$22,547 $39,159 (+73.7%) $24,173 $25,912 $48,266 (+86.3%)

$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000

1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Real Income Per Capita (2012 $) $48,187 (+99.3%)

Latest: 2015

87.0 90.7 80.0 86.3 77.4 81.1

70 75 80 85 90 95

1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Real Income Per Capita, % of U.S.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Latest: 2015

Erie versus PA and U.S. Erie as a Percent of U.S.

Real Median Household Income

$51,914 $57,230 $50,398 $55,702 $43,595 $47,386

$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Real Median Household Income

U.S. PA Erie County

Source for 2010-2014: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimates Source for 2015-2016: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 1-Year Estimates ,Table B19013 (Figures for the U.S. for 2015 and 2016 are from U.S. Census News Release, 9/12/2017)

2016: US: $59,039 PA: $56,907 Erie: $48,964

Average Weekly Wages by Industry, Erie County, 4th Quarter 2016

$275 $406 $451 $493 $496 $534 $661 $809 $835 $844 $880 $888 $922 $937 $1,032 $1,067 $1,148 $1,151 $1,244 $1,415 $1,456

$0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600

Accommodation and Food Services Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Administrative and Waste Services Other Services, Ex. Public Admin Retail Trade Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Total, All Industries Educational Services Transportation and Warehousing Health Care and Social Assistance Information Construction Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Wholesale Trade Public Administration Professional and Technical Services Manufacturing Management of Companies and Enterprises Finance and Insurance Utilities

Source: Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry

Poverty Rates

13.4% 13.2% 15.3% 13.5% 17.4% 18.3% 17.5%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Percent of Population

PA U.S. Erie County 2016: US: 12.7% PA: 12.9% Erie: 15.9%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 1-Year Estimates, Table S1701 (Figures for the U.S. in 2015 and 2016 are from Census News Release, 9/12/2017))

Erie Total Employment, 1970-2017

101,400 (Jan 1970) 136,300 (Feb 1999) 124,500 (July 2017)

80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150

January, 1970 February, 1971 March, 1972 April, 1973 May, 1974 June, 1975 July, 1976 August, 1977 September, 1978 October, 1979 November, 1980 December, 1981 January, 1983 February, 1984 March, 1985 April, 1986 May, 1987 June, 1988 July, 1989 August, 1990 September, 1991 October, 1992 November, 1993 December, 1994 January, 1996 February, 1997 March, 1998 April, 1999 May, 2000 June, 2001 July, 2002 August, 2003 September, 2004 October, 2005 November, 2006 December, 2007 January, 2009 February, 2010 March, 2011 April, 2012 May, 2013 June, 2014 July, 2015 August, 2016

Total Employment (Thousands)

(Seasonally Adjusted)

Latest: July 2017

Source: Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry

Erie Total Employment, 1990-2017

125,500 (Jan 1990) 136,300 (Feb 1999) 128,100 (Aug 2003) 134,500 (May 2008) 121,600 (Jan 2010) 127,800 (Feb 2015) 124,500 (July 2017)

114 116 118 120 122 124 126 128 130 132 134 136 138

January, 1990 September, 1990 May, 1991 January, 1992 September, 1992 May, 1993 January, 1994 September, 1994 May, 1995 January, 1996 September, 1996 May, 1997 January, 1998 September, 1998 May, 1999 January, 2000 September, 2000 May, 2001 January, 2002 September, 2002 May, 2003 January, 2004 September, 2004 May, 2005 January, 2006 September, 2006 May, 2007 January, 2008 September, 2008 May, 2009 January, 2010 September, 2010 May, 2011 January, 2012 September, 2012 May, 2013 January, 2014 September, 2014 May, 2015 January, 2016 September, 2016 May, 2017

Total Employment (Thousands)

(Seasonally Adjusted)

Source: Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry +10,800 (8.6%) – 8,200 (6.0%) +6,400 (5.0%) – 12,900 (9.6%) +6,200 (5.1%) – 3,300 (2.6%)

Latest: July 2017

Total Employment, 1970-2017

(Indexed to Jan 1970)

123 134 194

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220

January, 1970 February, 1971 March, 1972 April, 1973 May, 1974 June, 1975 July, 1976 August, 1977 September, 1978 October, 1979 November, 1980 December, 1981 January, 1983 February, 1984 March, 1985 April, 1986 May, 1987 June, 1988 July, 1989 August, 1990 September, 1991 October, 1992 November, 1993 December, 1994 January, 1996 February, 1997 March, 1998 April, 1999 May, 2000 June, 2001 July, 2002 August, 2003 September, 2004 October, 2005 November, 2006 December, 2007 January, 2009 February, 2010 March, 2011 April, 2012 May, 2013 June, 2014 July, 2015 August, 2016

Indexed Employment (Jan 1970 = 100)

U.S. PA

Source: Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry

Latest: May 2017

Erie

Total Employment, Jan – July, 2017

(Seasonally Adjusted)

Source: Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry

124,000 124,200 124,400 124,600 124,800 125,000 125,200 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Total Employment

Erie

6,080,000 6,100,000 6,120,000 6,140,000 6,160,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Total Employment

PA

151,000,000 151,500,000 152,000,000 152,500,000 153,000,000 153,500,000 154,000,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Total Employment

U.S.

Employment by Industry (% of Total), Erie vs U.S.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Regional Economic Information System (2015)

Unemployment Rate

(Seasonally Adjusted)

Source: Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry 9.2%

(Dec 1991)

4.3%

(Mar 2000)

7.0%

(Mar 2002)

4.5%

(Mar 2007)

10.1%

(Jan 2010)

5.6% 5.0% 4.3%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Unemplyment Rate

Erie

Latest: July 2017

U.S. PA

PNC’s Northwest Pennsylvania Market Outlook: 2017.Q1

(Source: PNC, http://www.pnc.com/economicreports)

The Evolution of Erie’s Economy

Brookings Institution Analysis: Advanced Industries

Source: Brookings Institution

Brookings Institution Analysis: Advanced Industries

Source: Brookings Institution

• I invite you to contact me to:
• share your ideas and suggestions
• let us know if you need assistance with finding, analyzing, and understanding

economic data or other information related to the Erie economy

• discuss possible ERIE research projects you can conduct with us

Ken Louie, Director klouie@psu.edu (814) 898-6265 www.ERIEdata.org

Thank You!