Dr. Ron Heiniger Vernon G. James Research Center North Carolina - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

NC STATE UNIVERSITY NC STATE UNIVERSITY Dr. Ron Heiniger Vernon G. James Research Center North Carolina State University

NC STATE UNIVERSITY NC STATE UNIVERSITY State Average Yield – 142 bu per acre 160 Total – 126.5 mil bu Actual Yield bu/acre 140 Corn Yield, bu acre -1 120 Linear (Actual Yield 100 bu/acre) 80 60 40 20 0 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014

NC STATE UNIVERSITY NC STATE UNIVERSITY 3 Rainfall High Temp 100 Low Temp 2.5 80 2 Temperature (F) Rainfall (inch) 60 1.5 40 1 20 0.5 0 0

NC STATE UNIVERSITY NC STATE UNIVERSITY  Current nt moistur ure is the result lt of very low ow sout uther herly ly dip in the Jet Stream am.. .. No sign n of this is shif ifting ng anytim ime e soon – ex expect continuat nuatio ion n of current nt pattern n  Very Cold Januar ary throu ough gh March h – if Jet Stream am pattern n persis ists then n ex expect plenty of rain and possib ibilit ility of snow ow  Break ex expected ed in April and May with h wa warm and dry condit itions ions.  Pattern will reemer erge ge in early June with h rain and cool we weather her to early July  Final l chang nge e in July to very hot ot and dry condit itions ons into Septemb ember er

NC STATE UNIVERSITY NC STATE UNIVERSITY Corn Prices – Jan 2012 to Today

NC STATE UNIVERSITY NC STATE UNIVERSITY Corn Price Required to Cover Input Costs Break Even Price ($ acre -1 ) Highest Yield $2.30 (220 bu acre -1 ) Average Yield $3.78 (134 bu acre -1 ) Lowest Yield $5.76 (88 bu acre -1 )

NC STATE UNIVERSITY NC STATE UNIVERSITY The Effects of Lower Corn Prices  Remember that yield is a MULTIPLIER. High yield should still be the goal. To offset reductions in price yield must increase.  Select inputs that have a HIGH likelyhood of increasing yield. Inputs must be able to increase yield enough to return revenue over cost.  Select inputs that reduce environmental stresses and help maintain yield. An input that helps guarantee profitable yield levels reduces the risk of economic loss.

NC STATE UNIVERSITY NC STATE UNIVERSITY What t Manage agemen ent t Prac actic tices es Contrib tribute e the Most t to Yield ld and PRO ROFIT FIT?  Technologies in Corn Production  Advances in Hybrids – Drought Hybrids  Higher Plant Populations – 43,000 vs 33,000 plants/acre  Advanced Starter Fertilizers – (in furrow) + (2x2) vs 2x2 only  Seed Treatments – enhancing emergence  Fungicides – improving kernel weight

NC STATE UNIVERSITY NC STATE UNIVERSITY Intensive Management Overall Summary - 2013 Location Location Beaufort Pamlico Davidson Sampson Beaufort Pamlico Davidson Sampson Hybrid Hybrid Standard Intensive Standard Intensive Standard Intensive Standard Intensive Standard Intensive Standard Intensive Standard Intensive Standard Intensive Mgmt Practice Mgmt Practice Mgmt Practice Mgmt Practice Mgmt Practice Mgmt Practice Mgmt Practice Mgmt Practice DKC DKC 207.8 195.8* 248.0 202.3 245.1 235.6 207.4 189.8 207.8 195.8* 248.0 202.3 245.1 235.6 207.4 189.8 64-69 64-69 DKC DKC -5 to 46 bu bu per acre Advantag age! e! 241.2 223.4 227.9 197.7 254.3 229.3 202.6 193.9 241.2 223.4 227.9 197.7 254.3 229.3 202.6 193.9 68-05 68-05 Risk = -$83.55 per acre Pioneer Pioneer 215.1 198.8 221.9 207.0 246.5 225.3 187.8 166.9 215.1 198.8 221.9 207.0 246.5 225.3 187.8 166.9 Maximum um Re Return n ov over Cost= 1498 1498 $123.45 per acre Pioneer Pioneer 220.8 225.5 259.5 233.6 243.0 226.8 197.5 170.2 220.8 225.5 259.5 233.6 243.0 226.8 197.5 170.2 Breakeven n = 1690 1690 18.6 bu bu/ac acre Pioneer Pioneer 236.3 236.4 267.7 231.1 233.2 216.6 190.7 186.8 236.3 236.4 267.7 231.1 233.2 216.6 190.7 186.8 2088 2088 Syng. Syng. 194.2 198.8 203.3 196.2 241.3 221.1 156.5 111.0 194.2 198.8 203.3 196.2 241.3 221.1 156.5 111.0 N68B N68B

NC STATE UNIVERSITY NC STATE UNIVERSITY 350 300 Corn Yield, bu per acre 64 bu 250 Difference 200 In drought tolerant vs 115 150 115.7 conventional 82.1 100 53.2 28 20.5 50 0

NC STATE UNIVERSITY NC STATE UNIVERSITY 350 311.3 300 310 302.8 289.5 300 Corn Yield, bu per acre -19 bu 250 Difference 200 In drought tolerant vs 150 conventional 100 50 0

NC STATE UNIVERSITY NC STATE UNIVERSITY Increasing Seeding Rates (33,000 vs 43,000) - 2013 Location Location Beaufort Pamlico Davidson Sampson Beaufort Pamlico Davidson Sampson Hybrid Intensive Intensive Intensive Intensive Intensive Intensive Intensive Intensive Hybrid Intensive Intensive Intensive Intensive Intensive Intensive Intensive Intensive Mgmt Mgmt Mgmt Mgmt Mgmt Mgmt Mgmt Mgmt Mgmt Mgmt Mgmt Mgmt Mgmt Mgmt Mgmt Mgmt 43000 33000 43000 33000 43000 33000 27000 37000 43000 33000 43000 33000 43000 33000 27000 37000 DKC DKC 207.8 196.3* 248.0 217.0 245.1 229.1 207.4 198.0* 207.8 196.3* 248.0 217.0 245.1 229.1 207.4 198.0* -4 to 48 bu bu per acre Advantage! age! 64-69 64-69 DKC DKC 241.2 213.5 Risk = -$33.80 per acre 227.9 214.0 254.3 220.6 202.6 186.6 241.2 213.5 227.9 214.0 254.3 220.6 202.6 186.6 68-05 68-05 Maximum um Re Return n ov over Cost= Pioneer Pioneer $182.20 per acre 215.1 209.0 221.9 203.0 246.5 226.1 187.8 164.8 215.1 209.0 221.9 203.0 246.5 226.1 187.8 164.8 1498 1498 Breakeven n = Pioneer Pioneer 7.5 bu bu/acre 220.8 212.9 259.5 228.7 243.0 236.2 197.5 188.7 220.8 212.9 259.5 228.7 243.0 236.2 197.5 188.7 1690 1690 Pioneer Pioneer 236.3 236.5 267.7 219.3 233.2 224.8 186.8 175.5 236.3 236.5 267.7 219.3 233.2 224.8 186.8 175.5 2088 2088 Syng. Syng. 194.2 198.2 203.3 191.7 241.3 224.7 156.5 135.3 194.2 198.2 203.3 191.7 241.3 224.7 156.5 135.3 N68B N68B

NC STATE UNIVERSITY NC STATE UNIVERSITY

NC STATE UNIVERSITY NC STATE UNIVERSITY No starter 11-37-0 @ 20 gal/acre

NC STATE UNIVERSITY NC STATE UNIVERSITY Added Starter Fertilizer (3-18-18 in furrow) - 2013 Location Location Beaufort Beaufort Pamlico Pamlico Davidson Davidson Sampson Sampson Hybrid Hybrid Intensive Intensive Intensive Intensive Intensive Intensive Intensive Intensive Intensive Intensive Intensive Intensive Intensive Intensive Intensive Intensive Mgmt Mgmt Mgmt Mgmt Mgmt Mgmt Mgmt Mgmt Mgmt Mgmt Mgmt Mgmt Mgmt Mgmt Mgmt Mgmt 3-18-18 3-18-18 No 3-18-18 No 3-18-18 3-18-18 3-18-18 No 3-18-18 No 3-18-18 3-18-18 3-18-18 No 3-18-18 No 3-18-18 3-18-18 3-18-18 No 3-18-18 No 3-18-18 DKC DKC 207.8 207.8 195.6* 195.6* 248.0 248.0 219.4 219.4 245.1 245.1 229.6 229.6 207.4 207.4 198.6 198.6 -9 to 47 bu bu per acre Advant ntage! ge! 64-69 64-69 DKC DKC Risk = -$22.50 to $25 per acre 241.2 241.2 229.9* 229.9* 227.9 227.9 220.5 220.5 254.3 254.3 244.8 244.8 202.6 202.6 201.6 201.6 68-05 68-05 Maximum um Re Return n ov over Cost = Pioneer Pioneer $186.50 per acre 215.1 215.1 214.3 214.3 221.9 221.9 225.4 225.4 246.5 246.5 257.5 257.5 187.8 187.8 180.0 180.0 1498 1498 Breakeven n = Pioneer Pioneer 5.5 bu bu per acre 220.8 220.8 212.2 212.2 259.5 259.5 235.0 235.0 243.0 243.0 233.7 233.7 197.5 197.5 193.7 193.7 1690 1690 Pioneer Pioneer 236.3 236.3 234.2 234.2 267.7 267.7 220.1 220.1 233.2 233.2 225.7 225.7 186.8 186.8 184.8 184.8 2088 2088 Syng. Syng. 194.2 194.2 205.3 205.3 203.3 203.3 209.2 209.2 241.3 241.3 223.1 223.1 156.5 156.5 134.3 134.3 N68B N68B

NC STATE UNIVERSITY NC STATE UNIVERSITY Seed Treatment (Pentilex) - 2013 Location Location Beaufort Beaufort Pamlico Pamlico Davidson Davidson Sampson Sampson Hybrid Hybrid Intensive Intensive Intensive Intensive Intensive Intensive Intensive Intensive Intensive Intensive Intensive Intensive Intensive Intensive Intensive Intensive Mgmt Mgmt Mgmt Mgmt Mgmt Mgmt Mgmt Mgmt Mgmt Mgmt Mgmt Mgmt Mgmt Mgmt Mgmt Mgmt Pentilex Pentilex No Pentil No Pentil Pentilex Pentilex No Pentil No Pentil Pentilex Pentilex No Pentil No Pentil Pentilex Pentilex No Pentil No Pentil DKC DKC 207.8 207.8 202.2 202.2 248.0 248.0 237.0 237.0 245.1 245.1 233.9* 233.9* 207.4 207.4 202.6 202.6 -19 to 35 bu bu per acre Advantag age! e! 64-69 64-69 DKC DKC 241.2 241.2 239.7 239.7 227.9 227.9 223.7 223.7 254.3 254.3 253.4 253.4 202.6 202.6 200.1 200.1 Risk = -$10.75 per acre 68-05 68-05 Maximum um Re Return n ov over Cost= Pioneer Pioneer 215.1 215.1 212.6 212.6 221.9 221.9 222.1 222.1 246.5 246.5 257.9 257.9 187.8 187.8 185.7 185.7 $147 per acre 1498 1498 Breakeven n = Pioneer Pioneer 220.8 220.8 230.2 230.2 259.5 259.5 247.5* 247.5* 243.0 243.0 240.1 240.1 197.5 197.5 200.9 200.9 2.3 bu bu per acre 1690 1690 Pioneer Pioneer 236.3 236.3 238.9 238.9 267.7 267.7 232.0 232.0 233.2 233.2 226.8 226.8 186.8 186.8 190.7 190.7 2088 2088 Syng. Syng. 194.2 194.2 213.4 213.4 203.3 203.3 203.0 203.0 241.3 241.3 219.6 219.6 156.5 156.5 161.3 161.3 N68B N68B

NC STATE UNIVERSITY NC STATE UNIVERSITY 260 Corn Yield, bu per acre 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100