The Role of Preventive Diplomacy The Role of Preventive Diplomacy - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Role of Preventive Diplomacy The Role of Preventive Diplomacy The Role of Preventive Diplomacy The Role of Preventive Diplomacy In the Future Direction of ARF In the Future Direction of ARF Wi hi h C f Wi hi h C f Within the Context of Within the Context of the Evolving Regional Architecture the Evolving Regional Architecture S Wiryono S Wiryono S W yo o S W yo o

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( I ) ( I ) Preventive Diplomacy : To Strengthen Peace Preventive Diplomacy : To Strengthen Peace Definition Definition Conflict prevention or Preventive Diplomacy Conflict prevention or Preventive Diplomacy p p y p p y is is not only not only a term a term that applies to measures designed to prevent conflict that applies to measures designed to prevent conflict h ppl e me e de gned p even nfl h ppl e me e de gned p even nfl from breaking out but also to those intended to prevent a conflict, from breaking out but also to those intended to prevent a conflict, even one that has been ongoing for some time, even one that has been ongoing for some time, even one that has been ongoing for some time, even one that has been ongoing for some time, from escalating and whenever possible to reverse it from escalating and whenever possible to reverse it and guide it toward and guide it toward a negotiated peaceful solution a negotiated peaceful solution and guide it toward and guide it toward a negotiated peaceful solution. a negotiated peaceful solution.

The late Ali Alatas in his book, “A Voice for a Just Peace,” The late Ali Alatas in his book, “A Voice for a Just Peace,” said that the highest national interest of all nations is peace. said that the highest national interest of all nations is peace.

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said that the highest national interest of all nations is peace. said that the highest national interest of all nations is peace.

We all need peace and We all need peace and East Asia has basically been at peace. East Asia has basically been at peace.

( II ) ( II ) Nature of Peace Nature of Peace ASEAN i i ASEAN i i i i h h ill i h h ill ASEAN is now moving to ASEAN is now moving to a a community community with three pillars : with three pillars : political & security , economic and socio political & security , economic and socio-

• cultural.

cultural. This aspiration is made possible because This aspiration is made possible because p p p p during its past existence during its past existence Asean Asean has has in fact in fact been able been able to prevent to prevent existing existing disputes disputes from escalating from escalating and and at the same time at the same time quietly nursed new ambitions. quietly nursed new ambitions. The The peace among Asean members peace among Asean members The The peace among Asean members peace among Asean members is is enviable enviable compared with compared with some some

• f the
• f the other regions of the world.
• ther regions of the world.
• f the
• f the other regions of the world.
• ther regions of the world.

But what is the nature of peace in the context of But what is the nature of peace in the context of the future direction of ARF and the future direction of ARF and

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within the context of the evolving regional architecture. within the context of the evolving regional architecture.

I think it is fair and logical to conclude that I think it is fair and logical to conclude that when people kill each other less and less often, when people kill each other less and less often, peace must be gaining some ground. peace must be gaining some ground. p g g g p g g g But what is the nature of this kind of peace? But what is the nature of this kind of peace? It is certainly a peace that is not based It is certainly a peace that is not based s c y p c s o b s d s c y p c s o b s d

• n a treaty or a set of security arrangements
• n a treaty or a set of security arrangements
• although there is a Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in

although there is a Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in although there is a Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in although there is a Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia and there is the ARF, and Southeast Asia and there is the ARF, and there are security arrangements between some Asian nations there are security arrangements between some Asian nations there are security arrangements between some sian nations there are security arrangements between some sian nations and a Western power like the United States. and a Western power like the United States.

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You may call the peace You may call the peace that prevails in East Asia that prevails in East Asia “negative peace” or “peace by default” but “negative peace” or “peace by default” but

whatever name you give it, the fact remains that it works, whatever name you give it, the fact remains that it works, whatever name you give it, the fact remains that it works, whatever name you give it, the fact remains that it works,

since it brings down the casualty count. since it brings down the casualty count. And more important is the economic benefit And more important is the economic benefit And more important is the economic benefit And more important is the economic benefit to all countries in the region and the world to all countries in the region and the world by the expanding trade and investment by the expanding trade and investment by the expanding trade and investment. by the expanding trade and investment. The challenge is to go beyond trade and investment. The challenge is to go beyond trade and investment. As a result As a result : we have a shift of center of gravity we have a shift of center of gravity f h A l i A i P ifi f h A l i A i P ifi

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from across the Atlantic to Asia Pacific. from across the Atlantic to Asia Pacific.

To my mind, much of this peace can be attributed To my mind, much of this peace can be attributed y , p y , p to the presence in the region of to the presence in the region of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and its work, particularly the deliberations and and its work, particularly the deliberations and exchanges within the framework exchanges within the framework exchanges within the framework exchanges within the framework

• f the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF).
• f the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF).

Founded in Bangkok in 1994 the ARF aims at promoting Founded in Bangkok in 1994 the ARF aims at promoting Founded in Bangkok in 1994, the ARF aims at promoting Founded in Bangkok in 1994, the ARF aims at promoting transparency, dialogue and cooperation on matters regarding transparency, dialogue and cooperation on matters regarding security among the powers that have security among the powers that have y g p y g p a “footprint” within the Asia a “footprint” within the Asia-

• Pacific region.

Pacific region.

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( III ) ( III ) Co Co-

• existence of Tension & Peace

existence of Tension & Peace E A i i f f l i i l i E A i i f f l i i l i East Asia is not famous for resolving regional tensions. East Asia is not famous for resolving regional tensions. There are disputes that have remained unresolved There are disputes that have remained unresolved

• ver many decades and yet
• ver many decades and yet
• ver many decades, and yet
• ver many decades, and yet

peace has been achieved in the region in the sense that peace has been achieved in the region in the sense that the guns have been silent for a long time. the guns have been silent for a long time. g g g g

• Dr. Timo Kivimaki
• Dr. Timo Kivimaki -
• .......

....... -

• has explained this to me

has explained this to me by saying that by saying that “ A i bili d h “ A i bili d h “East Asian stability and harmony “East Asian stability and harmony is based on the fact that the nations of the region focus is based on the fact that the nations of the region focus

• n the things that unite rather than on disputes and
• n the things that unite rather than on disputes and
• n the things that unite, rather than on disputes, and
• n the things that unite, rather than on disputes, and

this has meant that many conflicting parties this has meant that many conflicting parties have been hesitant to start explicitly have been hesitant to start explicitly

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p y p y discussing the issues that divide.” discussing the issues that divide.” I agree with him. I agree with him.

Thanks to ASEAN/ARF ! Thanks to ASEAN/ARF ! You may call the peace that prevails in East Asia You may call the peace that prevails in East Asia You may call the peace that prevails in East Asia You may call the peace that prevails in East Asia “negative peace” or “peace by default” “negative peace” or “peace by default” b h i i b h i i but whatever name you give it, but whatever name you give it, the fact remains that it works, the fact remains that it works, since it brings down the casualty count. since it brings down the casualty count.

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Asean’s Asean’s greatest achievement is peace greatest achievement is peace by avoidance of conflict. by avoidance of conflict.

What the ARF is Supposed to be Able to Do ? What the ARF is Supposed to be Able to Do ? What the ARF is Supposed to be Able to Do ? What the ARF is Supposed to be Able to Do ? The goal of conflict resolution is to be attained The goal of conflict resolution is to be attained g in three stages: in three stages: (1) Confidence (1) Confidence-

• building , (2) Preventive Diplomacy

building , (2) Preventive Diplomacy and and (3) Conflict Resolution. (3) Conflict Resolution. ARF importance lies in the fact that ARF importance lies in the fact that ARF importance lies in the fact that ARF importance lies in the fact that it is the only forum on security matters it is the only forum on security matters in which all the great powers are represented. in which all the great powers are represented. g p p g p p Since its founding in Bangkok in 1994, Since its founding in Bangkok in 1994,

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it has been intensively engaged in Confidence it has been intensively engaged in Confidence-

• building.

building.

( IV ) ( IV ) Evolving Architecture Evolving Architecture Th E A i i l hi i h E A i i l hi i The East Asian regional architecture is he East Asian regional architecture is multilayered and multifunctional and its borders are not clear. multilayered and multifunctional and its borders are not clear. In a word it is In a word it is rather rather messy messy In a word, it is In a word, it is rather rather messy. messy. The situation is even messier now, The situation is even messier now, if you consider the different if you consider the different inter inter-

• state

state bilateral disputes and bilateral disputes and y p the many intra the many intra-

• state conflict situations in the region.

state conflict situations in the region. To remedy To remedy the situation the situation, , Kevin Rudd Kevin Rudd, , h i i i f A li h i i i f A li then Prime Minister of Australia, then Prime Minister of Australia, proposed a process of consultation toward proposed a process of consultation toward an Asia Pacific Community an Asia Pacific Community an Asia Pacific Community, an Asia Pacific Community, an overarching forum that would include the United States. an overarching forum that would include the United States. And Japan proposed an East Asia Community And Japan proposed an East Asia Community

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J p p p y J p p p y that also included the United States. that also included the United States. Neither Neither of the two proposals gained enough support.

• f the two proposals gained enough support.

Then Indonesia proposed Then Indonesia proposed the expansion of the East Asia Summit the expansion of the East Asia Summit i l d b h h U i d S d R i d i l d b h h U i d S d R i d to include both the United States and Russia, and to include both the United States and Russia, and this proposal gained the support of the ASEAN members. this proposal gained the support of the ASEAN members. Today it is almost definite that Today it is almost definite that Today it is almost definite that Today it is almost definite that during the East Asian Summit this month, during the East Asian Summit this month, the foreign ministers of the United States and Russia will be the foreign ministers of the United States and Russia will be g allowed to address the meeting. allowed to address the meeting. In October 2011, during Indonesia’s chairmanship of ASEAN, In October 2011, during Indonesia’s chairmanship of ASEAN, the leaders of the United States and Russia will be attending the leaders of the United States and Russia will be attending the leaders of the United States and Russia will be attending the leaders of the United States and Russia will be attending the East Asian Summit. the East Asian Summit. It is also almost definite that ASEAN, It is also almost definite that ASEAN, which is the driving force of various processes which is the driving force of various processes in East Asia and the Pacific, will further expand with in East Asia and the Pacific, will further expand with th dmitt n f E t Tim r th dmitt n f E t Tim r

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the admittance of East Timor the admittance of East Timor during Indonesia’s tenure as chairman. during Indonesia’s tenure as chairman.

Indonesia will also continue pushing for ASEAN, Indonesia will also continue pushing for ASEAN, through its rotating chairmanship, through its rotating chairmanship, having a permanent seat in the G having a permanent seat in the G-

• 20 thereby enlarging the voice

20 thereby enlarging the voice f th d l i ld i th t f f th d l i ld i th t f

• f the developing world in that forum.
• f the developing world in that forum.

And it is quite possible that during its chairmanship, And it is quite possible that during its chairmanship, Indonesia will rally the ASEAN membership Indonesia will rally the ASEAN membership Indonesia will rally the ASEAN membership Indonesia will rally the ASEAN membership to establishing a Bali Concorde III, to establishing a Bali Concorde III, which will endeavour to give ASEAN a global outreach which will endeavour to give ASEAN a global outreach which will endeavour to give ASEAN a global outreach. which will endeavour to give ASEAN a global outreach. This means ASEAN deliberately extending help This means ASEAN deliberately extending help to other parts of the world to the extent that to other parts of the world to the extent that to other parts of the world to the extent that to other parts of the world to the extent that its resources will allow and in fields its resources will allow and in fields in which ASEAN has experience and expertise in which ASEAN has experience and expertise - for instance, for instance,

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in which ASEAN has experience and expertise in which ASEAN has experience and expertise for instance, for instance, peacekeeping, disaster relief and technical cooperation peacekeeping, disaster relief and technical cooperation through triangular arrangements. through triangular arrangements.

Back to the issue of Peace Back to the issue of Peace Stating tating the the obvious :

• bvious :

all countries need internal peace and stability as well as ll countries need internal peace and stability as well as p y p y freedom from external threats to their national security, freedom from external threats to their national security, in order to achieve economic growth and political development. in order to achieve economic growth and political development.

• d
• c

v co o c g ow d po c d v op .

• d
• c

v co o c g ow d po c d v op . The The attainment and maintenance of internal stability attainment and maintenance of internal stability is essentially the responsibility of each country is essentially the responsibility of each country is essentially the responsibility of each country. is essentially the responsibility of each country. Nevertheless, to some degree Nevertheless, to some degree the internal situation in any country the internal situation in any country the internal situation in any country the internal situation in any country is always affected by the external environment. is always affected by the external environment.

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The external environment, however, The external environment, however, is not something that the individual country can create by itself. is not something that the individual country can create by itself. External p External peace, security and stability within the eace, security and stability within the external external p , y y , y y environment environment require require the cooperation of other countries the cooperation of other countries within a bilateral, regional and global framework. within a bilateral, regional and global framework. g g g g On a multilateral basis, such cooperation On a multilateral basis, such cooperation is carried out through international forums, is carried out through international forums, g , g , institutions and arrangements. institutions and arrangements. But even within these frameworks, But even within these frameworks, But even within these frameworks, But even within these frameworks, there are barriers to full and perfect cooperation. there are barriers to full and perfect cooperation.

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Are re we we willing to take bold initiatives that willing to take bold initiatives that create effective and durable create effective and durable international institutions and arrangements. international institutions and arrangements. Imperative : Imperative : peaceful conflict resolution. peaceful conflict resolution. Th f l l i f fli i f Th f l l i f fli i f The peaceful resolution of conflicts is often The peaceful resolution of conflicts is often a tortuous process but a tortuous process but i l b d b i l b d b it must always be attempted because it must always be attempted because the only alternative is its escalation, the only alternative is its escalation, which is likely to prove more costly to all concerned which is likely to prove more costly to all concerned which is likely to prove more costly to all concerned which is likely to prove more costly to all concerned and could lead to widespread and intense human suffering. and could lead to widespread and intense human suffering.

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Look to EU - the mother of all integration. The Challenge to ARF We see that unlike the OSCE in Europe, We see that unlike the OSCE in Europe, p , p , the ARF is not organized to carry out the ARF is not organized to carry out a direct role in preventive diplomacy. a direct role in preventive diplomacy. d e le n p even ve d pl m y. d e le n p even ve d pl m y. Nor will it be easy for the ARF to organize itself Nor will it be easy for the ARF to organize itself for purposes of Preventive Diplomacy and for purposes of Preventive Diplomacy and for purposes of Preventive Diplomacy and for purposes of Preventive Diplomacy and undertake this process on the basis of consensus, undertake this process on the basis of consensus, considering the many perspectives considering the many perspectives considering the many perspectives considering the many perspectives and national interests represented within the Forum, and national interests represented within the Forum, with not a few of them in conflict with each other with not a few of them in conflict with each other

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with not a few of them in conflict with each other. with not a few of them in conflict with each other.

Part of the problem is that Part of the problem is that Preventive Diplomacy, at least in its initial phase, Preventive Diplomacy, at least in its initial phase, d b i d d b i d fid ti l p i t dipl fid ti l p i t dipl needs to be carried out as needs to be carried out as confidential private diplomacy. confidential private diplomacy. In a multilateral framework, In a multilateral framework, it is difficult to operate confidentially it is difficult to operate confidentially it is difficult to operate confidentially. it is difficult to operate confidentially. It is not likely It is not likely that the 27 countries that make up the Forum participants that the 27 countries that make up the Forum participants p p p p p p will simply give a vote of confidence to the Chair will simply give a vote of confidence to the Chair, , which will then carry out which will then carry out h fid i l i i i h fid i l i i i the necessary confidential activities the necessary confidential activities

• f Preventive Diplomacy
• f Preventive Diplomacy

in the name of the Forum participants in the name of the Forum participants in the name of the Forum participants. in the name of the Forum participants. The ARF has The ARF has not not developed developed any operational mechanisms any operational mechanisms

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y p y p for the purpose of preventive diplomacy. for the purpose of preventive diplomacy.

OSCE : OSCE : High Commissioner on National Minorities High Commissioner on National Minorities The High Commissioner's task is The High Commissioner's task is to provide to provide "early warning" "early warning" and, as appropriate, and, as appropriate, p y g y g , pp p , , pp p , “early action“at “early action“at the earliest possible stage the earliest possible stage "in regard to tensions involving "in regard to tensions involving g d o s o s vo v g g d o s o s vo v g national minority issues which have not yet national minority issues which have not yet developed beyond an early warning stage developed beyond an early warning stage developed beyond an early warning stage, developed beyond an early warning stage, but, but, in the judgement of the High Commissioner in the judgement of the High Commissioner in the judgement of the High Commissioner, in the judgement of the High Commissioner, have the potential to develop have the potential to develop into a conflict within the OSCE area" into a conflict within the OSCE area"

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into a conflict within the OSCE area . into a conflict within the OSCE area .

Conflict Prevention Centre Conflict Prevention Centre -

• CPC

CPC The Conflict Prevention Centre (CPC) which provides The Conflict Prevention Centre (CPC) which provides direct support to all OSCE field operations, direct support to all OSCE field operations, helping them fulfil their tasks helping them fulfil their tasks p g p g in the politico in the politico-

• military dimension:

military dimension: early warning, conflict prevention, crisis management early warning, conflict prevention, crisis management y w g, co c p v

• , c s s

g y w g, co c p v

• , c s s

g and post and post-

• conflict rehabilitation.

conflict rehabilitation. The CPC's liaison function The CPC's liaison function The CPC s liaison function The CPC s liaison function between the OSCE's field operations between the OSCE's field operations and its main negotiating bodies and its main negotiating bodies and its main negotiating bodies and its main negotiating bodies guarantees the full implementation guarantees the full implementation and execution of political decisions and execution of political decisions

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and execution of political decisions. and execution of political decisions.

The ARF Concept Paper, The ARF Concept Paper, adopted at the Forum’s founding in Bangkok in 1994 envisaged adopted at the Forum’s founding in Bangkok in 1994 envisaged a three stage process and the establishment EEP , Friends of a three stage process and the establishment EEP , Friends of ARF Chair and theARF Unit that were adopted afterwards ARF Chair and theARF Unit that were adopted afterwards ARF Chair and theARF Unit that were adopted afterwards ARF Chair and theARF Unit that were adopted afterwards So far the ARF has been functioning more So far the ARF has been functioning more as a forum of dialogue that makes great contribution as a forum of dialogue that makes great contribution as a forum of dialogue that makes great contribution as a forum of dialogue that makes great contribution to Confidence Building. But the processes of to Confidence Building. But the processes of the Forum have not raised sufficient trust between and the Forum have not raised sufficient trust between and the Forum have not raised sufficient trust between and the Forum have not raised sufficient trust between and among participants to levels envisioned at its inception. among participants to levels envisioned at its inception. It is only after a sufficient degree of trust It is only after a sufficient degree of trust y g y g has been achieved that it will be possible to move has been achieved that it will be possible to move to actual action such as envisaged by the Concept paper. to actual action such as envisaged by the Concept paper.

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g y p p p g y p p p

ASEAN is now in the process of establishing ASEAN is now in the process of establishing

a formal mechanism for dispute resolution a formal mechanism for dispute resolution as stipulated in the ASEAN Charter. as stipulated in the ASEAN Charter. p

That particular provision in the ASEAN Charter That particular provision in the ASEAN Charter is in turn based on a provision is in turn based on a provision

• f the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation,
• f the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation,

which called on all signatories to settle which called on all signatories to settle their disputes through peaceful means. their disputes through peaceful means. These developments, too, are still in their early stages and These developments, too, are still in their early stages and

• nly time can tell whether they will lead
• nly time can tell whether they will lead

to an effective and concrete mechanism to an effective and concrete mechanism

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that will serve the region over the long term. that will serve the region over the long term.

There is reason to believe that the trend There is reason to believe that the trend is toward peace in East Asia and is toward peace in East Asia and the world’s economic center of gravity is shifting the world’s economic center of gravity is shifting from the Atlantic to the Pacific, from the Atlantic to the Pacific, specifically from the Western powers to the Asian powers, specifically from the Western powers to the Asian powers, f hi h i E A i f hi h i E A i most of which are in East Asia. most of which are in East Asia. But strictly speaking, But strictly speaking, it b t pti i ti t p k f p i E t A i it b t pti i ti t p k f p i E t A i it may be too optimistic to speak of peace in East Asia. it may be too optimistic to speak of peace in East Asia. Can we qualify it as relative peace. Can we qualify it as relative peace. Perhaps we should consider calling it Perhaps we should consider calling it Perhaps we should consider calling it Perhaps we should consider calling it East Asian pacification instead of East Asian peace, East Asian pacification instead of East Asian peace, for the simple reason that considerable violence for the simple reason that considerable violence

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for the simple reason that considerable violence for the simple reason that considerable violence is in reality taking place in East Asia. is in reality taking place in East Asia.

( V ) ( V ) East Asia’s regional architecture. East Asia’s regional architecture. A new world order is in the making and A new world order is in the making and the emerging economies of East Asia the emerging economies of East Asia g g g g certainly have a significant niche in that new world order certainly have a significant niche in that new world order. . It is clearly part of the solution It is clearly part of the solution s c y p

• so
• s c

y p

• so
• to the global problems of our time.

to the global problems of our time. Logically the global architecture needs to be reformed Logically the global architecture needs to be reformed Logically, the global architecture needs to be reformed Logically, the global architecture needs to be reformed in such a way that the economies of East Asia in such a way that the economies of East Asia will have a greater say will have a greater say will have a greater say will have a greater say in global decision in global decision-

• making on socio

making on socio-

• economic issues.

economic issues. As a s a group they group they could be could be a significant force significant force

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As a s a group they group they could be could be a a significant force significant force in that new world order. in that new world order.

So So it is only logical that the question is asked it is only logical that the question is asked: : How should East Asia position itself How should East Asia position itself economically and politically? economically and politically? But East Asia is not a single unit. But East Asia is not a single unit. g The individual economies of East Asia The individual economies of East Asia

• notably Japan, China, South Korea and

notably Japan, China, South Korea and

• b y J p

, C , So

• d
• b y J p

, C , So

• d

the countries of ASEAN are still driven the countries of ASEAN are still driven by nationalism and narrow self by nationalism and narrow self-interest interest by nationalism and narrow self by nationalism and narrow self interest. interest. There are ongoing attempts to unite East Asia There are ongoing attempts to unite East Asia through ASEAN through ASEAN driven processes driven processes through ASEAN through ASEAN-driven processes driven processes – the ASEAN Plus Three process and the East Asia Summit, the ASEAN Plus Three process and the East Asia Summit, which includes India Australia and New Zealand which includes India Australia and New Zealand

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which includes India, Australia and New Zealand. which includes India, Australia and New Zealand.

Also covering the East Asian region are two processes Also covering the East Asian region are two processes: the ASEAN Regional Forum and the ASEAN Regional Forum and the Asia the Asia-

• Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum.

Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum. p That makes for That makes for a multilayered, multifunctional regional architecture. a multilayered, multifunctional regional architecture. y d, c o g o c c . y d, c o g o c c . We often like to cite such variety as an advantage, We often like to cite such variety as an advantage, even a form of wealth even a form of wealth even a form of wealth. even a form of wealth. But in this age of globalization, But in this age of globalization, when regional integration is an imperative when regional integration is an imperative when regional integration is an imperative, when regional integration is an imperative, we are not so sure that it is an advantage. we are not so sure that it is an advantage.

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Need to move from a negative peace Need to move from a negative peace to a more positive peace to a more positive peace to a more positive peace to a more positive peace ASEAN has been able so far to be ASEAN has been able so far to be h d i f h ARF d h d i f h ARF d the driver of the ARF and the driver of the ARF and ASEAN Charter : ASEAN Charter : Spirit of caring and sharing society Spirit of caring and sharing society is strengthening the sense of community / is strengthening the sense of community / is strengthening the sense of community / is strengthening the sense of community / the we feeling the we feeling I i l I i l In practical terms : In practical terms : Move beyond avoidance of conflict Move beyond avoidance of conflict

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and to move beyond trade and investment. and to move beyond trade and investment.