Global Freight Energy Use The Rapid Growth of Goods The Rapid Growth of Goods Movement- -Related Emissions Related Emissions Movement MTOE 1200 Worldwide: Trends, Health Effects Worldwide: Trends, Health Effects Water Rail Truck 1000 and Needed Policy Responses and Needed Policy Responses 800 600 Healthy Regions, Healthy Healthy Regions, Healthy People People 400 October 17, 2005 October 17, 2005 200 Michael P. Walsh Michael P. Walsh 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 International Consultant International Consultant International Water Borne Travel Global Freight Energy Use (Bunker Fuel) MTOE Energy Use - Petajoules Thousands 100% 10 90% Africa 9 80% Latin America 8 Middle East 70% 7 India 60% Water 6 Other Asia 50% Rail 5 China Truck 40% Eastern Europe 4 FSU 30% 3 OECD Pacific 2 20% OECD Europe 1 10% OECD North America 0 0% 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 Michael P. Walsh 1
Ölschlieren lschlieren Ö Michael P. Walsh 2
Pollution From Ports Compared MARPOL Agreement MARPOL Agreement To Other Sources • Annex VI Entered Into NOx Emissions PM10 Emissions Force on 19 May Tons per day Tons per day • Global cap of 4.5% Sulfur 2 35 • Special SOx Control 30 Areas Limited to 1.5% or 1.5 25 SOx limits 1 20 – Baltic Sea 15 0.5 – North Sea 10 • Ozone Depleting 0 5 y n s a J A Substances r a r i N L e l a n / n P C g i Y f 0 i N o e f e r n i r R w o V f r t i o o y s a J e o l l o f P • NOx Limits n t N A g P i r t e r a a r n i L M t o n l C i Y / a e r P P g o f r g 5 o f i n r N e a 0 . P e r V i t v r R e o o f o r A e w l i f v e o i l o t P A • Restricts PCB g P M r a r t o r e 5 o P e g . P v 0 A a e r Incineration v A Source: NRDC "Harboring Pollution" Key Elements of Current Marine Diesel Program Rail Freight Movement (only applies to U.S. vessels) Tier 1 <50 hp Energy Use - Petajoules Tier 2 Thousands (40%NOx/PM ↓ ) only for >2.5 liter/cylinder 4 Africa (voluntary in 2000-2003) Latin America Tier 1 Middle East 3 Commercial India Tier 2 Other Asia (30%/25% NOx/PM ↓ ) 2 China Eastern Europe FSU Recreational Tier 2 1 OECD Pacific OECD Europe (30%/25% NOx/PM ↓ ) OECD North America 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Marine diesel fuel 500 ppm S fuel 15 ppm 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Michael P. Walsh 3
Key Elements of Current Locomotive Program Current Locomotive/Marine Diesels Standards 1.0 are Comparable to Early 1990’s Diesel Truck (only applies to U.S. railroads) Standards 0.9 new-built in 2001 0.8 Tier 0 Trucks (35% 0.7 2010 rebuilds of locomotives built in 1973-2001 NOx ↓ ) 0.6 Trucks PM (g/hp-hr) 1991 Tier 1 0.5 new-built in 2002-2004 Locomotives Tier 2 2005 0.4 (50% NOx ↓ ) 0.3 Tier 2 new-built in 2005+ 0.2 Marine Tier 2 2004-2009 (60/50% NOx/PM ↓ ) 2004 1998 0.1 Locomotive diesel fuel 500 ppm S fuel 15 ppm 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 NOx (g/hp-hr) Global Freight Energy Use EPA Regulatory Development Priority - EPA Regulatory Development Priority - Diesel Locomotive & Marine Engines Diesel Locomotive & Marine Engines MTOE 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% Water 50% Rail Truck 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% EPA requires 15ppm sulfur in fuel for loco/marine in 2012 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 EPA Engine proposal targeted for the spring of 2006 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 Michael P. Walsh 4
Contribution to primary PM2.5 Contribution to primary PM2.5 NO x emissions NO x emissions emissions emissions EU- EU -25 25 EU- EU -15 15 100% 100% Agriculture Agriculture Off-road Off-road Off-road Off-road Non-exhaust Non-exhaust Diesel exhaust, HDT 75% Diesel 75% Diesel exhaust, cars Diesel heavy duty veh. Diesel exhaust, cars heavy duty veh. Diesel cars Diesel cars Domestic, Gasoline cars 50% 50% wood stoves Gasoline cars Domestic, Domestic wood stoves Domestic Industrial processes Industrial processes 25% 25% Industrial combustion Industrial combustion Industrial processes Industrial processes Power generation Power generation Industrial combustion Industrial combustion 0% 0% 2000 2020 2000 2020 Typical engine exhaust mass and number Typical engine exhaust mass and number Proximity To Truck Traffic Linked To Lung Proximity To Truck Traffic Linked To Lung weighted size distributions shown with weighted size distributions shown with Function in Children Function in Children alveolar deposition alveolar deposition 2,100 Lung Function in liter 0.2 1 Fine Nanoparticles 2,040 Particles Dp < 50 nm 0.18 0.9 Normalized Concentration, dC/C total /dlogDp Ultrafine Particles 0.16 0.8 PM10 Dp < 100 nm Dp < 10 µ m Alveolar Deposition Fraction FEV1 1,980 0.14 0.7 0.12 0.6 Fractional deposition of particle with density of 1 g/um 0.1 0.5 1,920 0.08 0.4 0.06 0.3 1,860 0.04 0.2 Nuclei Accumulation Coarse 7500 12500 17500 22500 Mode Mode Mode 0.02 0.1 Truck Traffic Density 0 0 0.001 0.010 0.100 1.000 10.000 Diameter ( µ m) Mass Weighting Number Weighting Alveolar Deposition Fraction Brunekreef, Epidemiology 1997; 8: 298-303 Michael P. Walsh 5
Comparison of PM10, PM2.5, Comparison of PM10, PM2.5, and Ultrafine PM Comparison of Particle Emissions from and Ultrafine PM SMPS.7: All Vehicles and Fuels - 50kph 1.00E+13 Conventional Diesels 1.00E+12 PM2.5 PM2.5 Ultrafine PM Ultrafine PM µ m) (0.1 µ µ m) (2.5 µ (2.5 m) (0.1 m) 1.00E+11 log scale [Particles/km] Conventional Diesel PM10 PM10 PM2.5 PM2.5 (10 µ µ m) (10 m) (2.5 µ µ m) (2.5 m) Direct 1.00E+10 Injection Gasoline G-DI MPI and 1.00E+09 LPG Gasoline Gasoline and LPG 1.00E+08 PM10 PM10 1.00E+07 (10 µ µ m) (10 m) Trap Equipped Diesels 1.00E+06 Human Hair Relative size of particles 1 10 100 1000 (60 µ m diameter) Electrical Mobility Diameter/nm Evolution of US On- -Highway Highway Evolution of US On 0.20 ● Heavy Duty Standards Heavy Duty Standards Japan’03 0.15 US’04 1994 ▲ 500 PPM 500 PPM (6/93) (NOx+HC) 5.0 5.0 1998 0.10 4.0 4.0 g/kWh -hr] hr] SULFUR SULFUR PM [g/HP- Japan’09 NOx [g/HP 2002 0.05 2.5 2.5 EURO5 ’08 EURO4’05 US NOx ■ ■ 2010 US’07 ● 2007 Japan’05 ULSD ULSD ● 0.013 1.2 ▲ ▲ 1.2 15 PPM 15 PPM 0 (6/07) 0 0.27 1 2 3 4 NOx g/kWh 0.2 0.2 2010 0.01 0.01 0.10 0.10 HD Diesel NOx and PM Emissions HD Diesel NOx and PM Emissions HD Diesel NOx and PM Emissions PM [g/HP PM [g/HP- -hr] hr] Regulations Regulations Regulations Michael P. Walsh 6
Linkage Between Fuel Sulfur and Linkage Between Fuel Sulfur and PM Emissions PM Emissions Figure 2 -- Major Commercial Truck Markets 1200 0.06 PM Filter Total Truck Market Volume (000s) 1000 0.05 Oxidation Catalyst CHINA 800 grams/kilometer 0.04 PM Emissions Other PM INDIA 0.03 600 INDIA Sulfur 0.02 EUROPE 400 EUROPE 0.01 200 NAFTA NAFTA 0 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 1999 2004 Fuel Sulfur PPM Heavy Duty Diesel PM Regulations Heavy Duty Diesel PM Regulations 2010 2015 US 91/Euro 1 or less US 91/Euro 1 or less US94/Euro 2 US94/Euro 2 US98/Euro 3 US98/Euro 3 US 04/Euro 4 US 04/Euro 4 US 07/Euro 5 US 07/Euro 5 US 10/Euro 6 US 10/Euro 6 Michael P. Walsh 7
Global Distribution of On Road Diesel Global Distribution of Emissions Controls Fuel Sulfur Content (PPM) New Heavy Duty Diesel Trucks (000) 2005 2008 2005 2010 Total: 624,319 Total: 581,872 10/15 Above 500 5.9% Above 500 16.6% No Controls 23.4% 18.8% 50 US 10/Euro 6 29.9% No Controls Engine Modifications 10.4% 20.0% 2.3% 500 10/15 US 04/Euro 4 18.0% Engine Modifications US 91/Euro 1 57.2% 40.3% 2.3% 0.9% 350 350 US 07/Euro 5 US 91/Euro 1 1.8% 1.8% 500 30.7% 13.3% US94/Euro 2 38.9% 50 US98/Euro 3 24.3% US94/Euro 2 US 04/Euro 4 6.4% 3.8% US98/Euro 3 20.3% 5.8% 6.8% 2015 2010 2010 Aggressive No Controls 17.0% Total: 652,591 Total: 652,591 Engine Modifications Above 500 Above 500 0.6% 7.9% 500 16.5% US 91/Euro 1 10.0% 0.0% 500 US94/Euro 2 14.0% 0.4% US 10/Euro 6 50 US98/Euro 3 10/15 10/15 43.6% 350 20.2% 58.8% 12.5% 61.8% 3.0% 50 US 04/Euro 4 7.6% US 07/Euro 5 21.6% 4.3% Cumulative Emissions By Age – Cumulative Emissions By Age – Diesel Trucks Diesel Trucks Heavy Duty Diesel Vehicle Emissions Trends 1 0.9 Cummulative Emissions Normalized to 2000 0.8 0.7 1.1 0.6 1 0.5 PM 0.9 0.4 NOx 0.8 NOx 0.3 0.7 PM 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.5 0 0.4 8 6 4 2 0 + 8 6 4 2 0 8 6 4 2 0 8 6 4 2 0 0 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 4 0.3 Vehicle Age 0.2 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 Michael P. Walsh 8
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