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The Outlook for Energy a view to 2030 Rob Gardner International - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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The Outlook for Energy a view to 2030 Rob Gardner International Energy Forum 15 May 2010 This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could

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This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein (and in Item 1 of ExxonMobil’s latest report on Form 10-K). This material is not to be reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation.

The Outlook for Energy

a view to 2030

Rob Gardner International Energy Forum 15 May 2010

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Importance of Energy

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Sub-Saharan Africa North America EU Asia Pacific

Your Energy Use

MENA

Industry Public Buildings Commercial Transport

Direct Energy Use Indirect Energy Use 240,000 BTUs per day

Household Personal Vehicle

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Our Key Energy Challenges

  • Development of reliable and affordable energy – plus ongoing

efficiency gains – are essential to meeting these challenges...

  • Reducing poverty and improving living standards
  • Supporting economic growth
  • Minimizing impacts on the environment
  • Maintaining energy security
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Challenge: Meeting Basic Needs

Electricity ~1.5 Billion People with no Electricity Modern Cooking/Heating Fuels ~ 2.5 Billion People with no Modern Cooking/Heating Fuels Available Available

2006 World Bank

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Global Economics and Energy

1 MBDOE = ~2 Quadrillion BTUs 2 4 6 8 10 1980 2005 2030 20 40 60 80 100 1980 2005 2030 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1980 2005 2030 Billion

Population GDP Energy Demand

Trillion 2005$ Quadrillion BTUs Average Growth / Yr. 2005 – 2030 0.9% Average Growth / Yr. 2005 – 2030 2.7% Average Growth / Yr. 2005 – 2030 1.2%

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7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 1980 2005 2030 1 2 3 1980 2005 2030 10 20 30 40 50 60 1980 2005 2030

MENA Economics and Energy

Billion

Population GDP Energy Demand

Trillion 2005$ Quadrillion BTUs Average Growth / Yr. 2005 – 2030 1.5% Average Growth / Yr. 2005 – 2030 3.8% Average Growth / Yr. 2005 – 2030 2.6% 1 MBDOE = ~2 Quadrillion BTUs

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Growing Global Demand

1 MBDOE = ~2 Quadrillion BTUs 2005 – 2030 100 200 300

By Sector

Quadrillion BTUs 2005 2030 Transportation Industrial Res/Comm PowerGen Energy Savings

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Global Transportation Demand

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1980 2005 2030 5 10 15 20 25

By Sector

MBDOE

Personal vs. Commercial

MBDOE Rail Light Duty Vehicles OECD Non OECD Heavy Duty Vehicles Aviation Marine Commercial 2005 2030 Personal Personal Commercial

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Personal Vehicle Fleet is Growing

250 500 750 1000 1250 2000 2015 2030 500 1000 1500 Cars and Population (millions)

Vehicle Penetration Fleet by Car Type

Million Cars Gasoline Diesel Advanced Cars Population US 2005 US 2030 Europe OECD 2005 Europe OECD 2030 China 2005 China 2030

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Improving Today’s Vehicle

10 20 30 40 Total Body & Accessories Transmission Engine Percent 10 20 30 40 Total Body & Accessories Transmission Engine Percent 10 20 30 40 Total Body & Accessories Transmission Engine Percent 10 20 30 40 Total Body & Accessories Transmission Engine Percent 10 20 30 40 Total Body & Accessories Transmission Engine Percent 10 20 30 40 Total Body & Accessories Transmission Engine Percent 10 20 30 40 Total Body & Accessories Transmission Engine Percent 10 20 30 40 Total Body & Accessories Transmission Engine Percent

% MPG Improvement

Turbo Charging Cylinder Deactivation Camless Valves 6 Speed / 7 Speed Continuously Variable Improved Tires Aero - Dynamics A/C Efficiency Light Weight Materials

Percent Engine Transmission Body & Accessories Total

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Light Duty Vehicle Technology

5 10 15 20 Additional Cost Annual Savings Annual Savings 25 50 75 100 Conventional Technology Full-Hybrid & HCCI Plug-in Hybrid (PHV) Electric Vehicle Well to Wheels Gasoline Equiv. Percent

% Efficiency Improvement Plug-in Hybrid vs. Conventional Vehicles

$k 2010 2030 $2 / gallon gasoline $4 / gallon gasoline Electric Vehicle Plug-in Hybrid (PHV) Full-Hybrid & HCCI Conventional Technology Additional Cost Annual Savings Annual Savings

2010 2030 Battery cost, $/kWh 800 300 Battery replacements

  • ver the vehicle life, #

Electricity cost, ¢/kWh 5 5 Plug-in Hybrid Assumptions

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Light Duty Vehicles

10 20 30 40 50 2000 2015 2030 Europe OECD US China India *Full Hybrids, HCCI, PHV, EV

Advanced Cars*

Percent of New Sales

Average New Car

MPG India Europe OECD China US Europe OECD US China India 10 20 30 40 50 2000 2015 2030

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Heavy Duty Vehicles

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 1980 2005 2030 5 10 15 20 25 1980 2005 2030

Intensity

BOE / 2005$ k GDP

By Region

MBDOE Non OECD OECD Non OECD OECD

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By Region

Quadrillion BTUs 50 100 150 200 250 1980 2005 2030 Non OECD OECD

Global Industrial Demand

1 MBDOE = ~2 Quadrillion BTUs 20 40 60 80 100 120 Heavy Ind Chem Energy Ind Other

By Sector

Quadrillion BTUs 2005 2030 Heavy Ind Chem Energy Ind Other 50 100 150 200 250 1980 2005 2030

By Fuel

Quadrillion BTUs Oil Gas Biomass Electricity/ Heat Coal

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16 2 4 6 8 10 Heavy Ind Chem Energy Ind Other

Industrial Intensity

Million BTU / 1000 US$

MENA Industrial Demand

By Sector

Quadrillion BTUs 2005 2030 1 MBDOE = ~2 Quadrillion BTUs 2 4 6 8 1980 2005 2030 Heavy Industry Chemical Energy Industry Use OECD Industrial

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Residential / Commercial Demand

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2030 2005 OECD Non OECD 50 100 150 1980 2005 2030

Global Demand

Quadrillion BTUs Electricity/ Heat Biomass Oil Coal Gas Solar 1 2 3 1980 2005 2030 20 40 60 80 100

Residential Energy Use

MBTU / Household Quadrillion BTUs

By Sector Residential

Billion Households OECD Non OECD 2005 2030 Residential Commercial

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Electricity Use is Growing Fast

10 20 30 1980 2005 2030 US Europe Other China Other AP Other AP 10 20 30 1980 2005 2030 10 20 30 1980 2005 2030

By Region

k TWhr

By Sector

k TWhr Residential Other Industry Commercial Heavy Industry Transportation 40%

By Generation

Renewables Nuclear Oil Coal Gas

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Electricity Generation Cost

5 10 15 20 Coal Gas Nuclear Wind Coal + CCS Gas + CCS Solar

$60 per Ton CO2 $30 per Ton CO2 No CO2 Cost US Baseload, Startup 2025

2009 Cents/kWhr Coal Gas Nuclear Wind Coal + CCS Gas + CCS Solar

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20 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 1980 2005 2030 5 10 15 20 1980 2005 2030 5 10 15 20 1980 2005 2030

MENA Power Generation

k TWhr

Electricity by Sector By Fuel By Region

Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs Oil Gas Other Middle East North Africa Residential Commercial Other Industrial Heavy Industry 1 MBDOE = ~2 Quadrillion BTUs

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Power Generation Fuel Demand

20 40 60 80 100 120 1980 2005 2030 Renewables

United States

Quadrillion BTUs

Europe OECD

Quadrillion BTUs

Asia Pacific

Quadrillion BTUs Nuclear Gas Coal Oil 20 40 60 80 100 120 1980 2005 2030 20 40 60 80 100 120 1980 2005 2030

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Global Energy Demand and Supply

1 MBDOE = ~2 Quadrillion BTUs 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1980 2005 2030 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1980 2005 2030

By Sector

Quadrillion BTUs

By Fuel

Quadrillion BTUs Power Generation Industrial Transportation Res/Comm Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass Hydro, Geo Wind, Solar, Biofuels

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23 10 20 30 40 50 60 1980 2005 2030 10 20 30 40 50 60 1980 2005 2030 10 20 30 40 50 60 1980 2005 2030

MENA Energy Demand

Quadrillion BTUs

By Sector By Fuel By Region

Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs Power Generation Industrial Transportation Res/Comm Oil Gas Other Middle East North Africa 1 MBDOE = ~2 Quadrillion BTUs

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Economic Growth Drives Energy Demand

100 200 300 400 1980 2005 2030 100 200 300 400 1980 2005 2030 30 60 1980 2005 2030 30 60 1980 2005 2030

GDP Demand

Trillion 2005$ GDP Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs Trillion 2005$ GDP OECD Non OECD

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Global Energy Demand and Supply

1 MBDOE = ~2 Quadrillion BTUs 100 200 300 Oil Coal Gas Biomass Nuclear Hydro, Geo Wind, Solar, Biofuels Total Energy Growth Energy Savings Quadrillion BTUs 2005 – 2030 0.8% 0.5% 1.8% 0.5% 2.3% 2.2% 9.6% 2005 2030

Demand and Supply

Total Energy Growth Energy Savings Oil Coal Gas Biomass Nuclear Hydro, Geo Wind, Solar, Biofuels 160 300 Non OECD OECD Non OECD

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Global Liquids Supply Grows

Base/Adds 30 60 90 120 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 ~27 ~28 ~34 ~37 OPEC Crude Liquids Demand Non-OPEC Crude & Condensate Canada Oil Sands Other Petroleum

Global Liquids Supply and Demand

MBDOE Biofuels OPEC Non-OPEC 2005 Supplies 2030 Base/Adds

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27 30 60 90 120 2000 2015 2030 1.7 3.4

Gas Supply and Demand Balance

Asia Pacific

BCFD LNG: Liquefied Natural Gas 1 BCMD = ~35 BCFD BCMD 30 60 90 120 2000 2015 2030 30 60 90 120 2000 2015 2030 Conventional Unconventional Imports Pipeline

United States

BCFD

Europe

BCFD LNG

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Global Energy Demand & CO2 Emissions

1 MBDOE = ~2 Quadrillion BTUs 10 20 30 40 1980 2005 2030 Coal Oil Gas 10 20 30 40 1980 2005 2030 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1980 2005 2030 Billion Tons Power Generation Industrial Transportation Res/Comm

Demand

Quadrillion BTUs

CO2 Emissions

Coal Gas Oil Other Average Growth / Yr. 2005 - 2030 0.9% Average Growth / Yr. 2005 - 2030 1.2%

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CO2 Emissions

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 OECD Non OECD 2 4 6 8 10 12 OECD Non OECD 10 20 30 40 1980 2005 2030

CO2 Emissions

Billion Tons

Emissions per Capita

Tons / Person

Emissions per GDP

Tons / 2005$ k GDP OECD Non OECD 2005 2030 OECD Non OECD OECD Non OECD

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Transition to Modern Energy / Technology

Energy Information Agency 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 1850 1900 1950 2000

US Energy Demand

Percent Railways & Steamships Canals Telegraph Coal Mining Personal Vehicles Wood & Coal Heating Rail Freight Passenger Flights Electrification Oil Prod & Refining Telephone Air Conditioning Nuclear Power Natural Gas in Homes Road Freight Deepwater & Arctic Cell Phones & PCs Shale Gas & Oil Sands Wind Hybrid Vehicle Wood Coal Hydro Nuclear Renewables Gas Oil

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Integrated Energy Solutions

Now 2030

  • 6.7 billion people
  • Global economic linkages
  • Disparate living standards
  • Enormous energy needs
  • Environmental gains & concerns
  • Growing technology use & focus
  • 8 billion people
  • Non OECD leads economic growth
  • Less poverty; living standards improve
  • Global energy needs up one-third
  • Progress on environmental goals
  • Significant advances in technology

Increase Efficiency Expand Supply Mitigate Emission s

Mitigate Emissions Expand Supply Increase Efficiency

Te Technology chnology

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