The main messages emerging from our analysis of data, - - PDF document

The main messages emerging from our analysis of data, self-evaluation and feedback from key stakeholders is:  Keep going – you are doing the right things,  We are having an impact on learner outcomes and sustaining improvement where it is needed. The perceptions within the region of our work is improving  But the road is a long one with further improvements required, impacting ultimately on learner life chances.  Narrative – we are refining and focusing now on key areas of need, recognising that we have areas of weakness to target, but also that some of our schools have reached a ceiling/ or close to that ceiling and that the challenge is to maintain and sustain the work / outcomes and focus on the needs of every pupil.  We’ve had clear instructions so we will cover.....

• 1. Main issues arising from data ( we will include more than one year because better and fuller

picture)

• 2. How does this link to our plans & national priorities – I hope that this will come through
• 3. How do we plan for and respond to LA needs

 On occasion I will ask colleagues to talk through the slides – generally you should find that we come back to these themes noted here throughout the short presentation

 So before I move on to the data slides, I need to give one heath warning as we are referring to marginal

gains and we have had to make some tweaks to graphs ect to show impact as the gains are on occasion small but important – so we have moved the vertical axis to illustrate points made

 Slide is – ERW level 2 + versus wales  Our first key headline is – this...

• ..First region to top 60% L2+

 We know that where we have directed intervention – that there have been successes. This targeted intervention needs effective head teachers to deliver and sustain improvement and build the necessary resilience in schools.  Targeted schools have made increases, specifically where detailed analysis at subject level and we also know that where support has been between schools, that this has added value to reducing in school variation.



Minister I presume that you know this already but it does suggest that regional working works well

 Same with projected path  If ERW had continued on same trajectory from 2012 – Wales would have caught up, but we too action and it can be seen that the impetus form regional working has accelerated up away.. We have to also recognise that the steps necessary in some schools are small and difficult with some ERW schools have reached ceiling  Also reflects improvement or a change nationally, which may be in part about the work of consortia. Gwe’s strapline is something like - all schools to be god but my school to be a little bit better. This can be seen in the inter-regional collaboration there is going on currently, and reflect the work that regions are doing together.  So as you can see – we are slightly better and accelerating, or opening again the gap between us and Wales or other regions.  I think there is a great deal to celebrate here nationally

 This graph shows the Lev 2 + all regions  Central south in particular, coming from low base - we are sustaining – a different type of step, but equally challenging, and we need to recognise that some of our schools are at a ceiling, so now we need to focus on key groups of learners and specific schools  We know where to go next with these marginal gains - will come to these later

 We have had a focused strategy for GCSE and we know its modus operandi is about building capacity and strengthening all departments.  The acceleration in English is down to focused interventions.

 The picture is similar so we have been able to make key targeted gains.  We know that of the 6,209 pupils who got the maths 587 didn’t get the 5 GCSEs. We are now working with schools to better target and track these schools.  Despite improvement, and acceleration at a faster rate than Wales – ....we know that we have more work to do on maths and that we need to further close the gap between maths and languages.



There are many gaps to close – not just efsm. We have specific interventions in operation on within school variation.

 The data for welsh as a subject is complex and complicated.  This measure does not always make clear the proportion of pupils in the cohort is significantly different. For example, the total number of pupils achieving W1st language in Ceredigion is 448 as compared to Torfaen 160. Same number of secondary schools.  Swansea in the region – again 223 – but only 9%  The percentage of pupils engaged in taking W 1

st language is positively increasing steadily... From 18%

to 20% of pupils  Dealing with focused interventions for schools for both W1st language and 2

nd language is very different

from school to school.  The proportion of pupils carrying on with WM education from KS2 -3 varies significantly between LAs.

 ERW regression line  Interesting to compare position of schools in individual subjects compared with L2+  For example, need to target green school on right – seems that English is maybe holding it back

 ERW regression line  Interesting to compare position of schools in individual subjects compared with L2+  Maths regression line is “lower” than English, so still work to do  These slides just show the point I referred to earlier – on the gap

 We’ve undertaken an analysis of the use of BTEC and its effect on results this year – but also its potential impact on future years.. This could affect two thirds of our schools by between 50 and 100% with only 8 schools not affected at all.  This is very significant - however this does not mean that all will drop, this is the worst case scenario. The main message is that any measure showing performance in science is misleading because BTEC is not equivalent to GCSE. Brett’s term – “gaming” is fair here with pan Wales implications.  What’s important to note here is what we are doing about it... *identified leaders for learning for science last year and additional capacity this year *teacher re training programme *focus on KS2 and 3 – developing the scientific literacy of primary school pupils as they step into secondary – under developed area in many primaries * Some of this reflected in teacher assessment work – will come to that later

 We know best performing schools with higher efsm are doing well and are often the best in Wales.  We know specifically whether the gains are required this coming year and for the future  We are particularly proud this year, and I was glad Minister that you felt you could thank our schools for, the accelerated pace of improvement. A nearly 6 pp increase means that we have improved overall and accelerated the improvement of efsm pupils. – and widened the gap with other regions  The contributory factors have been:  Effective tracking of pupils, School to School work to develop a self-improving system,  Guidance and monitoring, Training for Challenge Advisers  Strategic lead and a strategy, under the ERW Business Plan,  Creating one – stop shop, Mainstreaming the focus on pupils in poverty – not efsm only  Identify a task force to facilitate and coordinate the region’s work in a cohesive strategic manner.  Use the performance and improvement function of internal audit to identify areas of strength and for development in the use and impact of PDG.  Research the poverty implications for pupils across the region. Including rural and isolation / access poverty, valleys post-industrial, inner city, seasonal employment.  Increase the number of PDG Professional Learning Schools.  Use the improved level of intelligence and qualitative information to match with the performance data to inform a refreshed strategy from March  Use the second core visit to capture the most effective practice on index of excellence.  Raise levels of awareness in ERW governance structures.  Include in scrutiny committees forward work plan for 2016-17.

 Two separate slides on efsm and non fsm  This re-emphasises the point that whilst raising achievement for all, we are also accelerating achievement of efsm learners as compared with other regions

 We have mapped these and also against the categorisation model – i.e. schools needing significant support.  Our yield to raise standards for all is here.  I’d like to look at further details –  Minister – I know Merthyr quite well, do you now Crymych, Llanfyllin, Whitland? These are not leafy suburbs – villages with a really stagnant economy, and who face the challenges I have noted. Resources like PDG or SCC don’t really impact on pupils in these schools.  We have been able to reallocate some of our own resources and a small amount of capacity building money from SCC.  But you will therefore understand our frustration when one school in another part of Wales received more money in one year...  .. than we as a region received for capacity building

 We spoke about one vulnerable group earlier  Looked after children in the region do well.  Here’s another  LAC level 2+  We’re talking here about - 1,900 children. We have in recent weeks had agreement form all directors in each LA to minimise the amount of school moves for pupils where ever possible. We know that HTs in

• ur board we concerned about unnecessary school moves

 Most of the Lac children actually come from outside the region, because this support aspects of the economics I described earlier. Couples moving to larger, cheaper housing in rural areas and fostering groups or sibling groups of children.  I won’t elaborate on the LAC PDG because we’ve written you you about that.  Children in Need also ok, need attention on EAL

 All LAs doing well in attendance. Primary reached Wales level, with secondary above it for last 2 years.  This is outside the NM but directors have worked together to target this basic expectation. It has not been an easy ride but we can now demonstrate that improved attendance has raised expectations and increased likelihood of learners having quality teaching time.  And we have shared this and other regions are now taking steps in the same vein.

Primary: teacher assessment  As a region we know and you know we have done a lot of work on accuracy, and on Brett’s request have shared with other regions; joint work on TA STAP programme  Good sign that the bell curve has shifted nationally however we know that we have a minority of schools who need to do more work. Similarly this information leads us to know that other regions have even more work to do and the three year trends will not shake out in system in other regions for some years.  Quartiles are damaged - we cannot improve any more.  We have been working with schools this term to look at the correlation of TA with tests and the accuracy overall of assessment. National system now through STAP programme builds on a system

• riginated in ERW based on cluster moderation. Brett wanted us to share last spring – it is now the

national system. Regional system of moderation was tight last year, increase data analysis this year at each and every stage – form face to face discussions with schools to agree categorisation and support menu – to our use of data to challenge ourselves. Secondary:  Region with highest percentage of schools in top 2 groups. Quarter of schools in Group 1, up from 14% in 2014 (from 9 to 16 / 64 in #schools)  Highest number of schools in top and also harder for us because we have the largest number of schools

• risk of variance is greater

 Expect flat lining – and better accuracy on second and their judgement; level of detail and data given to adviser significant on number of ERW schools in standards group 4 gone from 3-5  2014 – Bro Gwaun, Milford, Morriston & Tasker Milward, Caereinion  Morriston: new HT, & deputy, new adviser, changes new school site, HT unwell, new head of English  Bro Gwaun: got rid of 13 staff; new SMT – 46 – 51 lev2 +; CSI ks4 9pp increase; maths up 8%. Need to maintain and sustain. AIB in school working  Milford: greatest gain yet f 4pp to 41.7% have seen gains in subjects. 13pp gain in Maths. With only 2pp in English.. Again strong supporting Challenge Adviser  Tasker Milward: no HT, reorganisation, best teachers left the school, SM, use of powers in LA, errors

• f judgement?

 Caereinion: Core inspection in November 2013 – placed in EM · Head retired in summer 2014. · GB failed to appoint – no applicants. · Deputy was acting head from September 2014 to August 2015. · Acting assistant head in place - very strong – up to August 2016. · New permanent head took up post in September 2015. Inexperienced – 1st headteacher post. · New Challenge Adviser from 1/9/15. · During last academic year, there was long term sickness in the maths department. · The school is part of current LA Transformation agenda  In terms of what you should expect form the region in terms of support category – we are working already on effective comms on support. We feel that even where we have made steps schools who need support will be categorised as such

• External verification highlighted that the accuracy of teacher assessment and exemplification of pupils'

work in ERW, as in all regions needs strengthening.

• The accuracy of teacher assessment is in line with the other 3 regions.
• The main focus for ERW is to improve the accuracy of assessment in science in the primary, whilst at

secondary there is a need to focus on science and maths.

 How will we do it?  Ensure that all teachers have a sound understanding of the level descriptors and the demands of each level and the application of best-fit principles in making end of key stage level judgments  Ensure that all teachers are involved in a structured and rigorous programme of internal standardisation and moderation  Ensure that the profiles or collections of pupils’ work submitted for internal and cluster moderation provide sufficient evidence in terms of range and application of skills to enable a best-fit judgment to be made  Ensure that sufficient time is allocated for cluster moderation to be a thorough and robust process  Ensure that Science provision in KS2 allows pupils to develop the skills and acquire the knowledge required to meet the demands of Level 5

 Hub level QA arrangements -

• Regular meetings with Directors
• Responsiveness is key and one of the risks LAs faced as our work regionally evolves,
• The combined intelligence allows us to plan according to need
• This is planned in the LA plans to which the ERW business plan is a backbone