The Landscape of Water Past, Present, & Future Presented by: - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Landscape of Water – Past, Present, & Future

Presented by: Dr. Stephen G. Wells

Contributions from NM Bureau of Geology & Mineral Resources

New Mexico Tech at a Glance

Our Institution:

• Total Revenue = $144M
• 35.1% of total revenue from state

government (among the lowest in NM)

• 888 employees (665 Full-time),

including faculty, researchers, staff

• 211 faculty (full- & part-time)
• 19 academic programs
• $53.1M in External Awards
• College Factual ranks Tech No. 1

nationwide among all universities in value in Engineering & Physics.

• Overall, Tech ranks No. 1 in New

Mexico, No. 1 in the Southwest, and 17th among all public universities nationally. Our Students:

• Students Enrolled = 1525

undergrad; 610 grad

• 56% White, 28% Hispanic, 3%

American Native (undergrad)

• 64% majoring in Engineering
• 77% of entering freshman

retained following fall semester

• Graduating class of 2017 = largest
• 72% from New Mexico
• Ave. GPA 3.3%;
• 74% GPAs of 3.0 and greater
• 39% received at least 1 F in courses

at NMT

• 55% employed in New Mexico
• Ranks 11th Nationally among Top

State Universities By Salary Potential for graduating students

The top 50 Universities that produce PhD students National Science Foundation Rankings

• 1. Cal Tech
• 2. Harvey Mudd College
• 3. MIT
• 4. Reed College
• 5. Swarthmore College
• 6. Carleton College
• 7. University of Chicago
• 8. Grinnell College
• 9. Rice University
• 10. Princeton University
• 11. Harvard University
• 12. Bryn Mawr College
• 13. Haverford College
• 14. Pomona College
• 15. New Mexico Tech
• 16. Williams College
• 17. Yale University
• 18. Oberlin College
• 19. Stanford University
• 20. Johns Hopkins
• 21. Kalamazoo College
• 22. Cornell University
• 23. Case Western Reserve
• 24. Washington College
• 25. Brown University
• 26. Wesleyan University
• 27. Carnegie Mellon
• 28. Macalester College
• 29. Amherst College
• 30. Duke University
• 31. Beloit College
• 32. Bowdoin College
• 33. Wellesley College
• 34. RPI
• 35. Earlham College
• 36. Franklin and Marshall
• 37. Lawrence University
• 38. University of Rochester
• 39. Univ of Cal-Berkeley
• 40. Dartmouth College
• 41. Occidental College
• 42. Hendrix College
• 43. Vassar College
• 44. Trinity University
• 45. College of William and Mary
• 46. St. John College
• 47. Bates College
• 48. Whitman College
• 49. Brandeis University
• 50. Hampshire College

Blue = Public Universities Black = Private

Presentation Outline

• Why the Title?
• Understanding Variations of the Hydrologic Cycle

Over Different Time Scales

• Hydrologic Cycle, Humanity & Earth System

Services over Time

• The Future of Water in New Mexico

– Challenges, Collaborations & Opportunities for New Mexico

• Conclusions

Surface- & Ground-water Landscapes: Past & Present

playa floor Latest Pleistocene to Holocene Shorelines Historic Shorelines Latest Pleistocene to Modern Shorelines of Lake Mojave, Silver Lake Basin, CA Pleistocene & Modern Groundwater Levels Sinkhole Plains, KY

Variations in the Hydrologic Cycle Over Time

(from K.E. Trenberth, et al, 2007, 2011)

The long-term mean global hydrological cycle

Death Valley

 Drainage Basin Systems:  Owens River (glaciated mts.)  Amargosa River (continental interior)  Mojave River (unglaciated coastal

mts)

Continental Scale Drainage Basins in Arid Southwestern USA: Past & Present Hydrologic Systems

1938 flood event lake level

Landscapes of Modern and Pleistocene Hydrologic Regimes

(from Wells et al, 2003; Enzel & Wells, 1997)

Late Quaternary Paleohydrology of the Eastern Mojave River Drainage, Southern California: Quantitative Modeling of Late Quaternary Hydrologic Cycle in Large Arid Watersheds; U.S.G.S. and NM Water Resources Research Institute; 1986-1989

Oblique aerial photo of Silver Lake playa during 1938 flood event

Variations in Hydrologic Cycle over 20,000 Years

11.4 ka - 8.7 ka = Intermittent III 13.7 ka – 11.4 ka = Mojave II 16.6 ka – 13.7 ka = Intermittent II (15.5 ka – 14.6 ka = major drying event) 18.4 ka – 16.6 ka = Mojave I 22.6 ka – 18.4 ka = Intermittent I to Incipient 8.7 ka – present = Holocene 16.6 ka – 13.7 ka = Intermittent II (from Brown, 1989; Wells et al, 2003) Estimated Ages of Lake Phases Silver Lake Basin, CA

Variations in Hydrologic Cycle over Past 9 ka

Episodic Lake Stands During the Holocene aridity

(from Brown, 1989; Enzel, 1990; Enzel & Wells, 1997)

Historic Flooding & Short-Lived Modern Lakes

January 1916 flood inundating Silver Lake town. (from Enzel, 1990; Enzel & Wells, 1997)

Global Conditions for Historic Flooding & Lake Events Composite N. Pacific sea- level pressure (A) and anomaly (B) for eight months of floods and lake-building events.

(from Enzel, 1990; Enzel & Wells, 1997)

Modeling Results of 4 Different Hydrologic Conditions and Associated Climatic Scenarios

(from Enzel, 1990; Enzel & Wells, 1997)

Estimating Past Hydrologic Conditions

 Modern extreme flood & lake-building events form basis for

paleohydrologic analysis of pluvial lakes

 Using simplified precipitation-discharge/evaporation model, infer late

Pleistocene hydrologic conditions resulting in lake filling and overflow to Death Valley

 We infer that late Pleistocene hydrologic regime lies between following

conditions:

 50% increase in precipitation in headwater catchments resulting in

annual flood events & 3 times flood Q of modern extreme events with 50% decrease from modern evaporation

 100% increase in catchment precipitation with 50% decrease in

modern evaporation from modern with annual floods 2 times Q of modern extreme

SUMMARY

 Recent geologic past

provides critical perspective

• n the range of natural

variability of the hydrologic cycle and the landscape of water

 Use of modern hydrologic

conditions to model past systems

 Quantifying changes in

hydrologic cycle over time provides a framework for understanding the potential boundaries/limits on future conditions

Variations in the Hydrologic Cycle and Human Civilization Rise of Human Civilization

In the Hydrologic (Water) Cycle – Humanity is both Delegated to & Dependent upon the Other

(NASA)

“When Samuel Taylor Coleridge wrote “water, water, everywhere, nor any drop to drink,” he did not have the 21st century’s global water situation in mind. But allowing for poetic license, he wasn’t far from correct. Today, the availability of water for drinking and other uses is a critical problem in many areas of the world.” National Academy of Engineering, 2017

Grand Challenges for Engineering in the 21st Century*: Provide Access to Clean Water

Some Global Facts:

• Lack of clean water is responsible

for more deaths in the world than war.

• About 1 out of every 6 people living

today do not have adequate access to water.

• More than double that number lack

basic sanitation, for which water is needed.

• In some countries, half the

population does not have access to safe drinking water, and hence is afflicted with poor health.

• By some estimates, each day nearly

5,000 children worldwide die from diarrhea-related diseases, a toll that would drop dramatically if sufficient water for sanitation was available.

* National Academy of Engineering, 2017

Water Landscapes of West Africa

Polluted Fresh

each dot represents 1 million people each dot represents 1 million people Maps are from an article by John H. Tanton, "End of the Migration Epoch," reprinted by The Social Contract, Vol IV, No 3 and Vol. V, No. 1, 1995.

The Global Change in Human Population

each dot represents 1 million people Maps are from an article by John H. Tanton, "End of the Migration Epoch," reprinted by The Social Contract, Vol IV, No 3 and Vol. V, No. 1, 1995.

Maps are from an article by John H. Tanton, "End of the Migration Epoch," reprinted by The Social Contract, Vol IV, No 3 and Vol. V, No. 1, 1995.

Maps are from an article by John H. Tanton, "End of the Migration Epoch," reprinted by The Social Contract, Vol IV, No 3 and Vol. V, No. 1, 1995. dot represents 1 million people

each dot represents 1 million people Maps are from an article by John H. Tanton, "End of the Migration Epoch," reprinted by The Social Contract, Vol IV, No 3 and Vol. V, No. 1, 1995.

Maps are from an article by John H. Tanton, "End of the Migration Epoch," reprinted by The Social Contract, Vol IV, No 3 and Vol. V, No. 1, 1995. dot represents 1 million people

A New Factor in the Hydrologic Cycle

beginnings of agriculture first irrigation first dam constructed documentation of air pollution pollution of rivers by Romans

The Hydrologic Cycle & Earth Services Systems

Earth Science Services (ESS): “Array of benefits for humankind derived from the biogeochemical & hydrogeologic states & flows – sustains the biosphere for existence of life”*

*Board of Earth Sciences & Resources, Nat. Acad. Sci.

P-E is the net flux of water at the surface that, over land, sustains soil moisture, groundwater and river runoff – “a measure of ESS functionality”

Seager et al., 2007

Assessing Earth System Services Functionality Present and Future

Changes in Hydrologic Cycle & Earth System Services Functionality

Modern Drought Conditions

• Shifts in the water cycle
• ccurred over the past

century due to a combination

• f natural variations and

human forcing.

• Droughts worsened in Sub-

Saharan and southern Africa, eastern Brazil, and Iran (brown) (Map adapted from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.).

Impact of Short-Term Changes in Earth System Services – Vulnerability of Humanity

“widespread agreement that Southwestern North America - and the subtropics in general - are on a trajectory to a climate even more arid than now” “In the Southwest the levels of aridity seen in the 1950s multiyear drought, or the 1930s Dust Bowl, become the new climatology by mid-century: a perpetual drought” - Seager et al., 2007

Dust Bowl, USA: National Archives 114 SC 5089

Landscapes of Drought in New Mexico

“ The Dust Bowl… happened in New Mexico in t wo ways. First , t he nort heast ern part of t he st at e was affect ed as a kind of ext ension of t he Oklahoma

• panhandle. S

econd, New Mexico (especially Tucumcari and Albuquerque) was on t he rout e of escape from t he Dust Bowl. S

• people in t he st at e of New Mexico

had first hand experience of t he largest migrat ion in U.S . hist ory.” (from S anta Fe Journal, 5/ 17/ 2009) The Road West , New Mexico, by Dorothea Lange (1935)

The Future of Global-Scale Runoff

• Changes in water runoff

into rivers and streams are another expected consequence of climate change by the late 21st Century.

• Predicted increases in

runoff in blue, and decreases in brown and red.

• (Map by Robert Simmon, using data from

Chris Milly, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory.)

Changing Runoff in Southwestern U.S.A.

A "bathtub ring" of white rock marks a 39-meter drop in the water level

• f Lake Mead since 1999

1985 2010 16km 1985 Colorado River & Lake Mead

Climate Change in the Western USA: Trends

 Warming - thermometers (NOAA coop

surface data network)

 Warming - thermometers (NOAA upper air

data network)

 Warming - thermometers (subsurface,

western boreholes)

 Snowpack decrease in spring months

(Snotel network)

 More rain / less snow in winter months

(NOAA coop network)

 Earlier snowmelt runoff pulse (date shift,

USGS stream gage network)

 Earlier blooming of lilacs and honeysuckles

(phenology networks)

 Mountain glacier recession and mass loss  Upward movement of plant / animal

habitat zones

 Warmer river and lake temperatures

Landscape Responses to Drought:

Changes to River Systems Increased Wildfire Frequency

Hydrologic Systems & Arid Southwest Life in New Mexico

• Precipitation
• Mean annual precipitation

<10” to >20”, with wide annual variation

• Surface water (rivers, lakes,

streams)

• 0.25% of NM land surface
• Seasonal and annual flow

variability

• Connection to groundwater
• Groundwater
• Spatial variability in quantity

AND quality

Water Use in New Mexico: Significance of ESS Functionality

Surface water 55% Groundwater 45% Agriculture uses ~79% of water resources

Water use in 2010 from Longworth et al., 2013

Future of Water in New Mexico

Climate change = less water

• Reduced snowpack; variable monsoons
• Increased evapotranspiration rates
• Reduction in surface water flow and

recharge to groundwater

• Increase demand on groundwater
• Increased vulnerability
• Increased litigation!?

• Arid southwest – water is not always

abundant.

• Groundwater and surface water

availability can be highly variable spatially, seasonally and annually.

• Obligations to nearby states for water

delivery and compact agreements

• Statewide, we lack an accurate total of

the available groundwater in storage in most regions, and its water quality

• Surprisingly few regions of NM have

adequate data to characterize the basic hydrology and geologic framework of the basin or region

CHALLENGES – WATER IN NEW MEXICO

“Challenge is the pathway to engagement and progress in our lives.” Brendon Burchard

NM Institute of Mining and Technology

• Hydrology Department at Earth and Environmental Sciences (E&ES)
• New Mexico Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources (NMBGMR)

Current & Recent New Mexico Collaborators: NM Tech Collaborations Toward State Meeting the Water Challenges

• Academic Institutions: NMIMT, UNM, NMSU, WRRI, Highlands
• State Agencies: NMOSE/NMISC, NM EMNRD, NMED, NMDOH
• Federal Agencies & National Laboratories: US Geological Survey,

US Bureau of Reclamation, Los Alamos NL, Sandia NL, US Bureau of Indian Affairs, US Fish & Wildlife Service, US Bureau of Land Management, US Forest Service, NASA

• Counties, Municipalities, Irrigation Districts, Conservation

Districts, Water Utilities, Tribes

Grants and Collaborations with NM WRRI have a Long History

• 2014-2017 funding from NM WRRI –

Statewide Water Assessment

• NMBGMR, USGS, NM OSE, NMSU,

and WRRI

• Using existing water level data

RESULTS

• Concerning groundwater storage

declines in eastern NM, Pecos Slope, Mimbres, Tularosa, Albuquerque, and Mesilla Basins.

• Many regions lack sufficient data
• Results are likely under-estimates

due to sparse data

PI: Alex Rinehart, NMBGMR

Groundwater Storage Changes

NM TECH COLLABORATIONS TOWARD STATE WATER CHALLENGES

• Current funding from USGS, NSF and DOE
• River corridors as hot spots for

biogeochemical processing Goals:

• Improve nation-scale characterization of

river hydrogeomorpohology and its cumulative influence on water quality

• New data collection and modeling to forecast

changes to water quality

• Outcomes to address numerous pollutants fate

and transport in US rivers

• Strong focus on the Rio Grande watershed

PI: Jesus Gomez-Velez, E&ES

River corridor connectivity

NM Tech Collaborations: Toward NATIONAL Water Challenges

after Gomez-Velez et al., WRR, 2014 and Harvey & Gooseff, WRR, 2015

Significant State-wide Collaborations: Valuable Asset to Leverage

Statewide Groundwater Recharge Model

• 2014-2017 funding from NM WRRI –

Statewide Water Assessment

• NMT (E&ES and NMBGMR), NMSU,

and WRRI

Mountain Block Recharge Model

• 2015-2017 funding from NM

WRRI and NSF

Uranium in Groundwater near Mines

• 2014-2017 NM EPSCoR / NSF –

Energize New Mexico

• NMT - E&ES and NMBGMR
• Students from Western, Eastern,

San Juan College and Navajo Tech

Deep Basin Characterization

• Current funding from NSF
• NMT and UNM collaborations

San Agustin Plains-Upper Alamosa Creek Hydrogeology

• Long-term project began in 2009 –

limited funding

• NMBGMR, Aquifer Mapping Program,

Healy Foundation, USGS National Cooperative Geologic Mapping Program (Statemap), and NMOSE

Hydrologic model of the Rio Hondo watershed, Taos, NM.

Innovation Based Economic Development In Water Resources The Road Forward to Economic Diversification in New Mexico

Leveraging the challenges in water resource management with state- wide intellectual capital in water sciences to:

• Team higher education talent with

industry R&D

• Attract and nurture related

businesses in water resources and technology space

• Provide advance workforce training

and development for managing water resources at state, national & global level.

• Support innovation of

technological solutions to mediate future changes in the hydrologic cycle and water resources

The Future Landscape of Water in New Mexico - The Opportunity

CONCLUSIONS

 New Mexico has an

abundance of challenges and talent in understanding state-wide, national and global challenges in water resources

 New Mexico’s collaboration

and growing knowledge base is exceptional in the space of water resources and technology

 Leveraging of talent,

collaboration, and knowledge base could allow New Mexico to lead in Innovation-Based Economic Development in WATER!

Thank You.

Thank You.

Waterstart - Nevada

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