OR-PAST,PRESENT OR-PAST,PRESENT & FUTURE & FUTURE Do You Know Do You Know Where Your OR Analyst Where Your OR Analyst Is,(Was),(Will Be) Tonight Is,(Was),(Will Be) Tonight
MY REACTIONS MY REACTIONS � All Three of the Following � All Three of the Following – Vas You ‘Dare, Çharley � – Vas You ‘Dare, Çharley � – O R: Past, Present, and Future! – O R: Past, Present, and Future! – or, – or, – One Man’s Passage Through a Time Warp – One Man’s Passage Through a Time Warp All With a Nod To Charles Dickens All With a Nod To Charles Dickens Seriously Folks: Seriously Folks: HAS OR BEEN AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO HAS OR BEEN AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO RATE A REAL P,P, & F RATE A REAL P,P, & F
PAST � How Far Back Can You Go?? – WWII if you only consider military OR – Early 1900s by some reckoning – RAC(Research Analysis Corp.) � OK since this is a MOR symposium, we take WWII
PRESENT PRESENT / DO WE LIVE IN AN ETERNAL / DO WE LIVE IN AN ETERNAL PRESENT? PRESENT? / IS IT EVERYTHING BETWEEN / IS IT EVERYTHING BETWEEN KOREA AND NOW? KOREA AND NOW?
FUTURE » ALWAYS STARTS TOMORROW EARLY » SO IS MOR PASSÉ » THERE’S ALWAYS A WAR ON SOMEWHERE
WHAT’S YOUR FUTURE? � Is Your Subject Area Above Some Threshold for Size and Complexity? • Probably Be “Spun Off” or Merged � Problem Oriented Subjects System Sciences • • Aspects of Computer Sciences • Metamorphosized • Transportation------>Logistics
HOW DO YOU SEE HOW DO YOU SEE YOURSELVES? YOURSELVES? ◊ Not Like This, I Hope! ◊ Not Like This, I Hope! ◊ I Can Remember Times That Felt Like This ◊ I Can Remember Times That Felt Like This • As an Advocate and Champion of “Fuzzy Sets” in the • As an Advocate and Champion of “Fuzzy Sets” in the Pentagon (Survivor on the “Long March”) Pentagon (Survivor on the “Long March”) • Other Hard Sells Like Chaos Theory and Catastrophe • Other Hard Sells Like Chaos Theory and Catastrophe Theory Theory ◊ Gives Me an Excuse to ◊ Gives Me an Excuse to ◊ PROGNOSTICATE ◊ PROGNOSTICATE
TAKING THE LONG VIEW TAKING THE LONG VIEW • I ENDED UP CARRYING SEVERAL • I ENDED UP CARRYING SEVERAL PASSPORTS PASSPORTS – MATHEMATICIAN – MATHEMATICIAN – PHYSICIST – PHYSICIST – DUMB CONTRACTING OFFICER – DUMB CONTRACTING OFFICER – DECISION SCIENTIST – DECISION SCIENTIST – COMPUTER WHIZ – COMPUTER WHIZ • RIGHT NOW?,YOU SAY • RIGHT NOW?,YOU SAY – I Am Just Finishing Up Four Years at the – I Am Just Finishing Up Four Years at the George Mason University School of Public George Mason University School of Public Policy Policy
WHAT WAS MY FUTURE? • I Made Extensive Use of Two Umbrellas • Computer Simulation • Decision Sciences • Knitting of the Two Via Non-Linear Phenomenon • Trouble with (PX OF DILBERTS BOSS
TWO QUICK SIDEBARS
SIDEBAR 1 Their Speech Betrays Them • I Can Use Familiarity with a Simulation Language To Date You • You Are Assigned to a Era. (Defined As a Span of Time When the Simulation Was In Vogue. ) (Samples Follow ) Language(s) Era When Used Approx. Chron. • JOVIAL,MILITRAN EARLY STUFF ‘50’s--60’s. SIMSCRIPT,SNOBOL COBOL, (STNX Models) (VERY EARLY STUFF ) ( …) COMO/CRAP, PERL SIMULA,GPSS MID-RANGE 60’s-80’s SWARM,TWIRL/ROSS RECENT 90’s to POST-2000
SI DE BAR 2 Dipping a T o e I nto De c isio n Sc ie nc e s Ζ So me No n-typic a l Appro a c he s Ζ Co mpa re d Co nve ntio na l C2 Syste ms Built o n We ste rn L o g ic with a Ze n ba se d syste m a nd, Ano the r, Built o n Abo rig inal Australian “Dre am T ime ”. Ζ No bo dy Ma ke s a De c isio n Anymo re Ζ Co ng re ss is Gridlo c ke d Ζ Busine ss L e a de rship is a Jo ke Ζ T he Una ke d, a nd T he re fo re Una swe re d Que stio n, I s T his Where Can I Look for a General Solution?
THE BOGSAT High Order Schmoosing or Low Order Decision Making? Certainly More t he Latter Than the Former Passes for Serious Decision making In Too Many Venues The Results Are Not Repeatable--Even When the Original Group is Reassembled Woodcock’s Work Essentially Reorients the Way Committee Work Puts Forth a General Solution to a Multi- Dimensional Problem Using the Multi- Dimensional Mathematics of Catastrophe Theory
I CAN ALMOST SEE THE LIGHTS I CAN ALMOST SEE THE LIGHTS OF THE CITY OF THE CITY » The S ituation Tackled and S olved By Woodcock » Developed a framework for assessing the impact of the S tudy Group Recommendations on the strength of the government and opposition, the military situation, and external influences » Predict Outcomes of Related Problems » Assessed the Impact of implementing all 79 recommendations of the Iraq S tudy Group » S tudied the US troop surge » Developed Exit S trategies for the US in Iraq » S tudied the impact of Operation Iraqi Freedom
Assessing the Potential Impact of the Iraq Study Group (ISG) Recommendations on Societal Conditions in Iraq Review Iraq Study Group (ISG) Report Develop an ISG Report Impact Assessment Framework (IAF) • In-Power Segment (IPS) Strength • Out-of-Power Segment (OPS) Strength • Balance of Coercive Force (BCF) • External Influences (EXT) Political Power Concentration Graphs and Political Landscape Representations Assess Impact of ISG Report Recommendations Using ISG Assessments to Construct Political Power Concentration Graphs and Political Landscapes Development of the Impact Assessment Framework (IAF) capability has aided the Study of the impact of implementation of the Iraq Study Group recommendations
The Political Landscape More Restricted Society Less Restricted Counter- Society Revolution The Control Revolution Plane High Concentration of Political Power Cusp-like Shadow Low Out-of-Power In-Power Segment Segment Strength Strength The Political Landscape construct represents the effect of the interaction between the government or In-Power (IPS) segment and the opposition or Out-of-Power (OPS) segment of a society
Selected Views of the Political Landscape and Political Power Concentration Curve
The Political Power Concentration Curve can have two peaks (representing some form of Dual Sovereignty ) or a single peak under different conditions
Large inwardly- directed External Influences (EXT) can produce conditions that create a Political Power Concentration Curve with three peaks representing some form of Triple Sovereignty
A Dual Sovereignty can be created when high External Influence levels are directed into a country of interest
The Political Landscape and Political Power Concentration Curve show the initial conditions before implementation of all 79 Iraq Study Group (ISG) recommendations as well as the effect of implementation at the 5%, 10%, 20%, and 30% levels
Assumed initial conditions in Iraq before implementation of the ISG Report recommendations suggest competition between three foci of political power represented by the three layers of the Political Landscape and the three peaks of the Political Power Concentration Curve (upper panel)
Implementing all ISG recommendations at the 5% level With IPS = 1.1 units, OPS = 0.91 units, BCF = -0.18 units, and EXT = - 2.05 units (upper panel) compared with the impact of the pre-ISG values (lower panel) generates a very small increase in the level of support for the IPS (government) entity
Implementing all ISG recommendations at the 10% level With IPS = 1.21 units, OPS = 0.83 units, BCF = - 0.27 units, and EXT = - 2.1 units (upper panel) compared with the impact of the assumed pre-ISG values (lower panel) generates a minor but noticeable increase in political concentration in support of the IPS (government) entity
Implementing all ISG recommendations at the 20% level With IPS = 1.41 units, OPS = 0.66 units, BCF = -0.44 units, and EXT = -2.2 units (upper panel) compared with the impact of the pre- ISG values (lower panel) creates a dominant focus of political power in support of the IPS (government) entity
Implementing all ISG recommendations at the 30% level With IPS = 1.62 units, OPS = 0.49 units, BCF = -0.60 units, and EXT = - 2.31 units (upper panel) compared with the impact of the pre-ISG values (lower panel) creates an even greater concentration of political power in favor of the IPS (government) entity
Operation Desert Storm severely reduced the political domination of Iraq by Saddam Hussein. Political power that had been concentrated in the regime (lower panel) appears to have been dispersed after the conflict (upper panel). The State Point has moved close to the region of the political landscape where sudden political transitions, such as regime overthrow, can take place
Many individuals use the metaphor of ‘ being on the cusp ’ to represent the potential for changes to take place. The Political Landscape shown in the following Figure is an actual realization of that metaphor. In this case, the regime of Saddam Hussein is literally located very close to the Cusp Line. Very small changes in the relative strength of the government and opposition and/or in the balance of coercive force could lead to revolutionary overthrow of the regime.
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