OR-PAST,PRESENT OR-PAST,PRESENT & FUTURE & FUTURE Do You - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

OR-PAST,PRESENT & FUTURE OR-PAST,PRESENT & FUTURE

Do You Know Where Your OR Analyst Is,(Was),(Will Be) Tonight Do You Know Where Your OR Analyst Is,(Was),(Will Be) Tonight

MY REACTIONS MY REACTIONS

All Three of the Following

– Vas You ‘Dare, Çharley – O R: Past, Present, and Future! – or, – One Man’s Passage Through a Time Warp All With a Nod To Charles Dickens Seriously Folks: HAS OR BEEN AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO RATE A REAL P,P, & F

All Three of the Following

– Vas You ‘Dare, Çharley – O R: Past, Present, and Future! – or, – One Man’s Passage Through a Time Warp All With a Nod To Charles Dickens Seriously Folks: HAS OR BEEN AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO RATE A REAL P,P, & F

PAST

How Far Back Can You Go??

– WWII if you only consider military OR – Early 1900s by some reckoning – RAC(Research Analysis Corp.)

OK since this is a MOR symposium,

we take WWII

PRESENT PRESENT

/ DO WE LIVE IN AN ETERNAL

PRESENT?

/ IS IT EVERYTHING BETWEEN

KOREA AND NOW?

/ DO WE LIVE IN AN ETERNAL

PRESENT?

/ IS IT EVERYTHING BETWEEN

KOREA AND NOW?

FUTURE

» ALWAYS STARTS TOMORROW EARLY » SO IS MOR PASSÉ » THERE’S ALWAYS A WAR ON SOMEWHERE

WHAT’S YOUR FUTURE?

Is Your Subject Area Above Some Threshold for Size and Complexity?

• Probably Be “Spun Off” or Merged

Problem Oriented Subjects

• System Sciences
• Aspects of Computer Sciences
• Metamorphosized
• Transportation------>Logistics

HOW DO YOU SEE YOURSELVES? HOW DO YOU SEE YOURSELVES?

◊ Not Like This, I Hope! ◊ I Can Remember Times That Felt Like This

• As an Advocate and Champion of “Fuzzy Sets” in the

Pentagon (Survivor on the “Long March”)

• Other Hard Sells Like Chaos Theory and Catastrophe

Theory

◊ Gives Me an Excuse to ◊ PROGNOSTICATE ◊ Not Like This, I Hope! ◊ I Can Remember Times That Felt Like This

• As an Advocate and Champion of “Fuzzy Sets” in the

Pentagon (Survivor on the “Long March”)

• Other Hard Sells Like Chaos Theory and Catastrophe

Theory

◊ Gives Me an Excuse to ◊ PROGNOSTICATE

TAKING THE LONG VIEW TAKING THE LONG VIEW

• I ENDED UP CARRYING SEVERAL

PASSPORTS

– MATHEMATICIAN – PHYSICIST – DUMB CONTRACTING OFFICER – DECISION SCIENTIST – COMPUTER WHIZ

• RIGHT NOW?,YOU SAY

– I Am Just Finishing Up Four Years at the George Mason University School of ฀Public Policy

• I ENDED UP CARRYING SEVERAL

PASSPORTS

– MATHEMATICIAN – PHYSICIST – DUMB CONTRACTING OFFICER – DECISION SCIENTIST – COMPUTER WHIZ

• RIGHT NOW?,YOU SAY

– I Am Just Finishing Up Four Years at the George Mason University School of ฀Public Policy

WHAT WAS MY FUTURE?

• I Made Extensive Use of Two Umbrellas
• Computer Simulation
• Decision Sciences
• Knitting of the Two Via Non-Linear

Phenomenon

• Trouble with (PX OF DILBERTS BOSS

TWO QUICK SIDEBARS

SIDEBAR 1 Their Speech Betrays Them

• I Can Use Familiarity with a Simulation Language To

Date You

• You Are Assigned to a Era. (Defined As a Span of Time

When the Simulation Was In Vogue. ) (Samples Follow)

• Language(s)

Era When Used

• Approx. Chron.

JOVIAL,MILITRAN EARLY STUFF ‘50’s--60’s. SIMSCRIPT,SNOBOL COBOL, (STNX Models) (VERY EARLY STUFF ) ( …) COMO/CRAP, PERL SIMULA,GPSS MID-RANGE 60’s-80’s SWARM,TWIRL/ROSS RECENT 90’s to POST-2000

SI DE BAR 2 Dipping a T

• e I

nto De c isio n Sc ie nc e s

Ζ So me No n-typic a l Appro a c he s

Ζ Co mpa re d Co nve ntio na l C2 Syste ms Built o n

We ste rn L

• g ic with a Ze n ba se d syste m a nd,

Ano the r, Built o n Abo rig inal Australian “Dre am T ime ”.

Ζ No bo dy Ma ke s a De c isio n Anymo re

Ζ Co ng re ss is Gridlo c ke d

Ζ Busine ss L

e a de rship is a Jo ke

Ζ T

he Una ke d, a nd T he re fo re Una swe re d Que stio n, I s T his

Where Can I Look for a General Solution?

THE BOGSAT

High Order Schmoosing or Low Order Decision Making?

Certainly More t he Latter Than the Former

Passes for Serious Decision making In Too Many Venues The Results Are Not Repeatable--Even When the Original Group is Reassembled Woodcock’s Work Essentially Reorients the Way Committee Work

Puts Forth a General Solution to a Multi- Dimensional Problem ฀Using the Multi- Dimensional Mathematics of Catastrophe Theory

I CAN ALMOST SEE THE LIGHTS OF THE CITY I CAN ALMOST SEE THE LIGHTS OF THE CITY

» The S ituation Tackled and S

• lved By

Woodcock

» Developed a framework for assessing the impact of the S tudy Group Recommendations

• n the strength of the government and
• pposition, the military situation, and external

influences » Predict Outcomes of Related Problems

» Assessed the Impact of implementing all 79 recommendations of the Iraq S tudy Group » S tudied the US troop surge » Developed Exit S trategies for the US in Iraq » S tudied the impact of Operation Iraqi Freedom

Using ISG Assessments to Construct Political Power Concentration Graphs and Political Landscapes Develop an ISG Report Impact Assessment Framework (IAF) Review Iraq Study Group (ISG) Report Assess Impact of ISG Report Recommendations

Political Power Concentration Graphs and Political Landscape Representations

Assessing the Potential Impact of the Iraq Study Group (ISG) Recommendations on Societal Conditions in Iraq

• In-Power Segment (IPS) Strength
• Out-of-Power Segment (OPS) Strength
• Balance of Coercive Force (BCF)
• External Influences (EXT)

Development of the Impact Assessment Framework (IAF) capability has aided the Study of the impact of implementation of the Iraq Study Group recommendations

Concentration of Political Power High Low Revolution Counter- Revolution

In-Power Segment Strength Out-of-Power Segment Strength

Cusp-like Shadow

The Political Landscape More Restricted Society Less Restricted Society The Control Plane

The Political Landscape construct represents the effect of the interaction between the government or In-Power (IPS) segment and the opposition or Out-of-Power (OPS) segment of a society

Selected Views of the Political Landscape and Political Power Concentration Curve

The Political Power Concentration Curve can have two peaks (representing some form of Dual Sovereignty) or a single peak under different conditions

Large inwardly- directed External Influences (EXT) can produce conditions that create a Political Power Concentration Curve with three peaks representing some form of Triple Sovereignty

A Dual Sovereignty can be created when high External Influence levels are directed into a country of interest

The Political Landscape and Political Power Concentration Curve show the initial conditions before implementation

• f all 79 Iraq Study Group (ISG) recommendations

as well as the effect of implementation at the 5%, 10%, 20%, and 30% levels

Assumed initial conditions in Iraq before implementation of the ISG Report recommendations suggest competition between three foci of political power represented by the three layers of the Political Landscape and the three peaks of the Political Power Concentration Curve (upper panel)

Implementing all ISG recommendations at the 5% level With IPS = 1.1 units, OPS = 0.91 units, BCF =

• 0.18 units, and EXT = -

2.05 units (upper panel) compared with the impact of the pre-ISG values (lower panel) generates a very small increase in the level of support for the IPS (government) entity

Implementing all ISG recommendations at the 10% level With IPS = 1.21 units, OPS = 0.83 units, BCF = - 0.27 units, and EXT = - 2.1 units (upper panel) compared with the impact

• f the assumed pre-ISG

values (lower panel) generates a minor but noticeable increase in political concentration in support of the IPS (government) entity

Implementing all ISG recommendations at the 20% level With IPS = 1.41 units, OPS = 0.66 units, BCF = -0.44 units, and EXT = -2.2 units (upper panel) compared with the impact of the pre- ISG values (lower panel) creates a dominant focus of political power in support of the IPS (government) entity

Implementing all ISG recommendations at the 30% level With IPS = 1.62 units, OPS = 0.49 units, BCF =

• 0.60 units, and EXT = -

2.31 units (upper panel) compared with the impact of the pre-ISG values (lower panel) creates an even greater concentration of political power in favor of the IPS (government) entity

Operation Desert Storm severely reduced the political domination of Iraq by Saddam

• Hussein. Political power that

had been concentrated in the regime (lower panel) appears to have been dispersed after the conflict (upper panel). The State Point has moved close to the region of the political landscape where sudden political transitions, such as regime overthrow, can take place

Many individuals use the metaphor of ‘being on the cusp’ to represent the potential for changes to take place. The Political Landscape shown in the following Figure is an actual realization of that metaphor. In this case, the regime of Saddam Hussein is literally located very close to the Cusp Line. Very small changes in the relative strength of the government and opposition and/or in the balance of coercive force could lead to revolutionary overthrow of the regime.

Operation Desert Storm severely reduced the political domination of Iraq by Saddam

• Hussein. Political power that

had been concentrated in the regime (lower panel) appears to have been dispersed after the conflict (upper panel). The State Point has moved close to the region of the political landscape where sudden political transitions, such as regime overthrow, can take place